New notes Exam 2 and 3 political 375
New notes Exam 2 and 3 political 375
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Date Created: 03/29/15
New notes Exam 2 Missed class Feb 2 and Feb 16 How Globalization has fueled new internal wars lt facilitated the sale of small arms and light weapons It encouraged the proliferation of new NGOs Ngos refugee camps and internal wars Ngo aid increased as superpowers disengaged Private non pro t donors intervened during humanitarian cdses Ngos organized refugee camps for aid dispersal militaries gain control over the camps and the aid Militaries recruit for soldiers from these camps esp children Militaries steal divert or tax Ngo aid to reward soldiers and exchange it for arms How refugees spread civil war to their neighbors refugee camps often provide sanctuaries to rebels refugees may align with groups opposed to host gov t Cross boarder raids increase con ict between refugees and hosts Cross border raids increase con ict between host gov ts And homeland gov ts Refugees can change the ethnic balance of power in host Refugees are economically burdensome Three Types of internal War explanations Each model explans why ppl rebel on the government Economic model motives are based on greed rebels seek loot Grievance based model Motives are based on inequalities injustices discrimination exlusion Group threat modeln motives are based n fear of subordination or extinction Collier and hoef er 2001 on economic causes Key Finds Low income country have the greater risk of civil war Economic growth have less chance of cival war The risk of civil war increases fopr states that are dependent heavily on primary commodity exports except oil rich states What are primary commodities Unprocessed raw materials oil minerals and food stuff Developing states export mostly primary commodities Con ict diamonds are at the heart of international con ict Of states total exports in minerals ores and metals exports Honey pot thesxis weak state capacity abundance of valuable natural resource incetives to seize land or the state to gain control favorable geography internarl war natural resources is the central problem in internal wars rebels become more interested in making money than winning hence internal wars become protracted resource wealth encourages separatist wars greed is more importanat tham grievances and poverty weaknesses of honey pot thesis state corruption precedes resources and explotion rebellions patronage networks support warlords rather than communites governments lack poltical legitimacy Grivances precede resource exploitation rebellions rebels Loots in order to fianc their rebellion do lootable and non lootable resources have same effect no separatist wars are most associated with non ootabe resouces exsample oil pipeline and re neries in Chechnya second model of internal con ict Grievance Model Grievances role of horizontal inequalities How do we de ne quot Horizontal inequalities quot Severe inequalities between culturally de ned groups Some groups are wealthier and more privileged than others What are culturally de ned groups How societies differentiate their populations Example religion cass ethnicity clans and factions Vertical inequalities are not horizontal inequalities How individuals compare to other individuals Differential treatment poitica exclusion no access to military of cer ranks restriction on jobs education and social services Which ead too Horizontal in equalities Which lead to relative deprivation leads to frustration resentment anger Internal war Addition to horizontal inequalities hi thesis Limited mobility between groups exacerbates hi If boundaries of group identities are not xed hi are less of a problem will be on exam Underprivileged groups do not always start violence Privilege groups can attack the under privileged over changes in distribution of resources Exsample Chiapas in mexico in 2000 Chiapas suffers from intra state inequalities It ranks as the 2Ml highest most marginalized state in Mexico It has petroleum natural gas and produces most of Mexico39s hydroelectricity Chiapas compared with all of mexico of resdents with incomes below minium wage is 3 times greater than ion rest of mexico illiteracy rate is 2 time grewater than the rest of mexico less than 1 doctor per 1000 residents infant mortality rates 2Ml highesy mexico indigenous vis a vis non indigenous inequalities in Chiapas per capita income is 32 of non indigenous resident 25 indigenous lack running water for those over 15 years average no of years in school is 4 39 of indigenous residents cannot read and or write 716 of indigenous residents suffer from malnutrition Zapatista insurgency 1992 2000 insurgency triggered by nafta treaty signed by mexico in 1992 Zapatista movement emerges as a response to NAFTA Insurgents declared that NAFTA was a death sentence for the indigenous people in mexico As a free trade agreement Many cases of Hi do not lead to internal war WHAT gOVT POLICIES INCREASE rd which leads to con ict 0 State repression human rights abuses Under what precise conditions do HI S lead to con ict 0 Role of catalysts or shocks how do groups get resources to challenge the state 0 external support 0 in short HI cannot explain internal con ict without other important factors Third model of internal con ict Ethnic con ict model Ethnic con ict is not Fueled by age old loyalies and cultural diffrences The result of ethnic groups harboring ageold hatreds Irrational violence Ethnic war is con ict over who gets what The state controls access to resources The ethnic group that controls the state also controls its resources When ethnicity is salient political competition occurs between ethnic groups Example confessional political system polticval powers is divided along religious thnic identities Lebanon it worked from 1943 1974 until civil war 1975 1990 President always a maronite catholic Prime minister always sunni Speaker of parliament always shi39a 6 christen 5 muslims armed forcews also divided along sectarian lines a 65 ratio president prime minister and speaker had veto power Government immobilized in the face of national crises in 19705 Paralysis leads to gov breakdown and civil war 0 at least 17000 dead 90000 internally displaced series of national crises in Lebanon in 19705 serious economic inequalities among shia and sunni o shia faced greater poltical and economic exclusion sunni and shia leaders demanded more poltical power governing elites resisted reforms despite demographic shifts in ux of militant armed Palestinians PLO in the south alters interanal balance of power Plo aligned with armed sunnis Lebanese army failed to constrain PLO operations agst ISR in the south lsraeloi raids in the south force thousands of shia emigrate north Rise of armed sectarian militias increased clashes between chritian militias and plo fragmented Lebanese army unable to maintain peace 1989 taif agreement to end civil war Power was distributed on a 11 ration between muslims and Christians All milities were disarmed except Hezbollah Country became ethnically segregated How the Syrian civil war destabilizes Lebanon Next target Lebanon lsi announced that Lebanon is to be the next state for its caliphate Us has provide 25 mill France is sending 3 billion worth with Saudi Reports say 300 isis ghters are armed and ready Theory of ethnic con ict Changed in structural conditions demographic shifts economic hardship political transitions ethnic insecurities subordination victimization ethnic con ict massacres ethnic cleansing ethnic based civil war intervening factors POLTICAL ENTREPRENEURS GROUP MOBILZATION SMALL SCALE ETHNIC CLASHES Political entrepreneurs exsapand persona power by Drawing on past injustices symbols and ethnic myths of the past Framing issues in terms of in groups vs out group lncreasing uncertainty about motives intentions of other groups Mobilization occurs when groups Form paramilitary units and stockpile arms Form poltical parties or poltical organizations based on ethnicity Establish control over ethnic based communication systems print radio TV SMALL SCALE ETHNIC CLASHES ARE PREPETRATED Ethnic composition 8 republics ruled by tito tito repressed nationalism since 1945 tito dies in office in 1989 government structure decentralized federal system federal institutions re ect the republics equally 8 votes in presidential council economy socialist Slovenia Croatia are richer than sothern republics Until 19705 economy thrives Oil price increases and trade barriers in the west Reduced economic grouth yugoslavis forced to take on imf loan debt in 1982 1986 and 1989 lmf also demanded major political and economic reforms in 1989 Republics argue over political reforms Serbes want greater centralization more federal power Why they do not want to share wealth with the poorer south Effect govt is stalemated between the republics Rising nationalism in Serbia Miloservic expands his political power in Serbia in 1987 How gained control over state news media for propaganda Created broad based nationalist movement in Serbia Used Kosovo to advocate serb interests over Kosovo Albanians Milosevic expands his power in 1989 Milosovic installs allied leaders in vojvodina Montenegro and Kosovo How widespread demonstrations by pro Milosevic protestors incumbents forced to step down national leaders take over He take 4 to 8 votes in the presidential council Milsoevic pursues a greater sewrbia strategy Incorporate serbs in Yugoslavia under one nation Nationalists in Slovenia and Croatia emerge Slovenia and Croatia rewrite constitutions in 1989 non solvenes and non croats now have minority status multi party elections are established nationalist political parties emerge nationalist leaders win presidential elections kucan Slovenia and tujdman Croatia win over others new nationalists purge ethnic opponets from state jobs Slovenia and Croatia now build new armies in Croatia serb police and security forces are replaced with croats Slovenia and Croatia road to war in 1991 Slovenia and suspend all federal laws European commission backs secession efforts Slovenia and Croatia declare independence War begins Short war for Slovenia Croatia civil war with Serbia and local serbs lasts 12 months 1000 3000 deaths ethnic cleansing on both sides 700000 people are displaced from their homes Bosnia Ethnic composition 1991 Total population 4377000 Bosniaks 44 Croats 17 Serbs 31 KEY DEVELOPMENTS IN BOSNIA BEFORE WAR IN 1992 1989 ethnic nationalist parties emerge nationalist leaders voted into office 1992 public votes on referendum on independence 997 and vote yes Bosnian serbs boy cott Bosnian parlament wo serbs declare indepence Bosnian serbs declare their own state with bosnia Serbs provide arms in1991 War breaks out in 1992 and ends in 1995 Ethnic cleansing against civilians Aim gain territory and regional autonomy if not a state Minority groups in areas where there were high concentrations of majority groups feard subordination and death 20000 people killed 22 million displaced serbs do most of the killing against bosniaks Serbs set up concentration camps 2000 50000 bosnian women raped as a war strategy serbs kill 800 bosniak males at srerenica a un safe zone un declares kiloing at serbnica to be genocide milisevic and mladic tried by icc for war crimes Srebrenica ethnic genocide 1995 19921995 296 muslim villages around Srebrenica destroyed uprooting uprooting 7000 and massacring at least 3000 July 6 8 Exam 3 Nuclear world Total Nuclear 17000 Russia 8484 Usa 7506 We have a moral responsibility to work towards securing the world without nuclear wapons Cost is going in Obama term on takeing care nukes Countdown to nuclear war Russia Us sblm Minutes 10 min Usa chms Minutes Non proliferation treaty Treaty became operational in 1970 Currently 189 states have signed the treaty Non signatory states india isreal Pakistan north korea Internatiopna atomic enery agency aea monitors nuclear proliferation program is not an UN Agency NPT is based on three pillars Firat Pillars Five States are official nuclear weapon states Usa Russ Uk Frn Chn NWS Agree not to use nuclear weapons against non NWS Nws agree not to transfer nuclear weapsons to non nuclear weapon states Non Nws Agree not to acquire nuclear Weapons Us provided dual use nuclear technology to india a non npt state IAEA Approved agreement 2008 Why the exception india has a clean non proliferation record india has a major internal energy demands india and us have shared geopolitical interests why the india USA Agreement is controversial non NPT States with Nuclear Weapons lsreal attained nuclear weapons by 1966 India conducted nuclear tests in 1974 and 1998 Pakistan consucted tests in 1998 North korea conducted rst nuclear test in 2006 Secomd pillar of npt treaty disarmament Nws are expected to dismantle their nuclear warheads in the future non signatory states complain about this why Three minutes till Midnight Doomsday clock 1947 2015 Third pillar peaceful use of nuclear energy Who is allowed to have civilians nuclear energy programs Only Npt signatory states They agree to un safeguards ad monitoring programs India is exception Tricky problem with civil uranium unrichment programs why lran nuclear standoff President ahmadine jad elected in 2005 Iran restarts nuclear enrichment program 2006 Un sanctions 2006 2007 2008 Un censors iran demands a freeze 2009 Un sanctions 2010 Stuxnet virus 2010 2 year setback lranian response in 2010 Will enrich at higher levels and build 20 new nuclear sites President rouhani elected in 2013 Iran elects new president 2013 Iran slows enrichment programs 2013 Iran seeks nuclear accord to end Sanctions 2013 Iran signs landmark accord to halt nuclear programs 2013 Reduced 20 of its enriched uranium stockpile Halted critical work at some of its nuclear facilities Granted idea inspectors to inspect its facilities reduced its low enriched fuel stopile Why do states want nuclear weapons United states fear of hitler later deter soviet union Russia deter us and other France and UK To retain great power status China deter us and Russia lsreal fear of arab neighbors lndia domestic pressures prestige rivalry w china Pakistan rivalry w india Islamic bomb North korea deter Us lran deter isreal us prestige regional leadership Three key concepts Nuclear deterrence design to threat will dissuade your adversary from doing sominthing in the future Credible deterrence Mutual assured destruction What does Nuclear deterrence mean When one actor persuades an adversary to refrain from using WMD By convincing the adversary that the costs of the act are too high Paradox of deterrenvce States have to have strong nuclear weapons so that they never have to be used Credible deterrence Credible deterrence rests on 3 conditions Capabilities will intent resolve clear and consistent signals Mutual assured destruction A rst strike with nuclear weapons guarantees a retaliatory nuclear counter strike from the other side Both sides are annihilated Via invulnerable 2nCI strike capability MAD Aids Nuclear deterrence What doea not aid nuclear deterrence B allistic missile defense system Type of missile defense intened to shield an entire country against incoming missiles such as nuclear icbms or any other types 1972 anti ballistic missile treaty Abm Treaty Based on MAD Assumptions 2002 pre George W bush Breaks Out of ABM Treaty Opted to build a BMD in Estern Europe Wanted a BMD System to protect allis against rogue states Russia Opposed to BMD in Europe 200920013 Obama opts out of Bmd in Europe instead Obama negotiated cuts in US And Russia Strategic Nuclear Arsenals
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