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Class Notes from 9/29/16

by: Max Miller

Class Notes from 9/29/16 DSCI 2710

Marketplace > University of North Texas > Business > DSCI 2710 > Class Notes from 9 29 16
Max Miller
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Ch. 5: Probability Principles These are my notes from class today! I include not only all of the information covered, but all of the diagrams from the handout given out in class today as well.
Business Statistics
Class Notes
Statistics, Probability




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This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Max Miller on Thursday September 29, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to DSCI 2710 at University of North Texas taught by Dake in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 45 views. For similar materials see Business Statistics in Business at University of North Texas.

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Date Created: 09/29/16
Class: DSCI 2710 Reminders: Date: 9/29/16  Exam #2 on 10/18/16 Topic Covered: Ch. 5  It is recommended that you go ahead Created By: Max Miller and get posttest #4 done, sense we just Ch. 5: Probability Concepts finished it last Thursday Check out this video! (not my video, or Dake’s) Notes:___________________________________________________  Terms and Notations to Know o Experiment  An event which the outcome is uncertain o Event  Consists of one or more possible outcomes of the experiments  Ex: Heads or tails on a coin are separate events in the experiment of flipping a coin o P(A) = m/n  The probability equation for event A  n is the number of possible outcomes  m is the number of times that event A occurs in the experiment  Ex: P(A) = 2/4 means that event A has a 2 out of 4 chance of happening, or a 50% chance  Relative Frequency Approach o This method uses the relative frequency to calculate the probability of an event in relation to the number possible out comes o Ex: A factory reports that 220 out of the last 250 days have gone by without an accident. What is the probability that a randomly chosen day in the near future will be accident free?  P(A) = m/n  A = Accident free day  m = recorded days in the past with no accident  n = total recorded days in the past  So, P(A) = 220/250 or P(A) = .88  There is an 88% chance of the randomly chosen day in the near future will be accident free  Subjective Probability o A measure (between 0 -> 1) of your belief that a particular event will occur  Ex: I think that there is a 35% chance that UNT will beat Middle Tennessee this Saturday  Subjective probability is used most often when gambling  10 Basic Laws of Probability o If the probability of an event is 1.0, then that event MUST occur o If the probability of an event is -0-, then that event MUST NEVER occur o The probability of any event must assume a value between 0 and 1 inclusive o The sum of the probabilities of all simple events in a sample must equal to 1.0 o Mutually Exclusive Law Two experiments are mutually exclusive if they have no events in common o Complement Law Complement of an event A is the set of all outcomes not in A o Addition Rule Probability of A or B occurring o Conditional Probability Rule Probability of A given B o Dependence  If the occurrence of one event alters the probability of another event, then the second event is said to be dependent on the first event o Independence  Two events are independent if the occurrence of one event does not alter the probability of another  Crosstabs AGE <30 30-45 >45 Sex     Total  Male 60 20 40 120 Female 40 30 10 80 Total 100 50 50 200 o What’s the probability of a male?  60% = 120/200 o Probability of not male?  40% = 80/200 o Probability of 30-45?  25% = 50/200 o Probability of P(<45)?  P(<45) = (100 + 50)/200 = 75% o Given F, what is the probability of <30?  P(F<30) = 40/80  Females under 30 / Total number of Females


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