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POLI 150 Week 7 Notes: 10/4/16-10/6/16

by: Hadley Ashford

POLI 150 Week 7 Notes: 10/4/16-10/6/16 POLI 150

Hadley Ashford
GPA 3.776

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About this Document

These notes cover civil wars and the refugee crisis
International Relations
Menevis Cilizoglu
Class Notes
25 ?




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This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Hadley Ashford on Friday October 7, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to POLI 150 at University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill taught by Menevis Cilizoglu in Fall 2016. Since its upload, it has received 3 views. For similar materials see International Relations in Political Science at University of North Carolina - Chapel Hill.

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Date Created: 10/07/16
POLI 150 Week 7 Notes: 10/4/16-10/6/16 10/6/16 - Current event: Russia broke off deal with US to get rid of plutonium to make nuclear weapons o Said US isn’t sufficiently disarming o Russia said they would resume disarmament if US would stop NATO occupation in Baltics and lift sanctions on Russia o Possible prisoner’s dilemma: Russia refuses to disarm (defection) because thinks US is not disarming properly o Possible ways to fix these cooperation problems  Increase transparency and credibility o Possible that Russia is only doing this to get back at US for ending talks about ceasefire o Spiral of defection - Civil war: armed conflict between government and group inside same country (rebel groups) o More frequent than international wars o More people die in civil wars than interstate wars  Especially after WWII  Mostly directed at civilians (difficult to distinguish between civilians and military) o Longer duration than interstate wars  Average length for civil wars= 6 years  Average for interstate= 3 years o Civil wars often happen again: must figure out how to make negotiation that won’t cause recurrence  Not common for interstate wars - Why civil wars important in international relations o Stability/security: civil wars affect regional safety/stability o Humanitarianism: other countries may feel obligation to intervene- usually hegemons have this assumed responsibility  Send food, aid, etc. to help victims o Intervention: third parties intervene to end war and increase security of region, state sponsorship o Third parties have individual interests in one side or another  May intervene to protect interests o Spillover into surrounding countries, contagion o Terrorism: civil wars create good opportunity for terror organizations to thrive/spread o Refugees spread to neighboring countries- can put strain on them economically o Trade: trading partners suffer during civil war  Civil war country produces less and more difficult to continue distribution  Partners lose goods from that country - Why civil wars happen: don’t always lead to civil war o Grievances: government discriminates against specific group in country (repression of beliefs/culture, deny access to goods/services) o Greed: one group wants to control more of country’s resources - What groups fight over: o Territory:  Separatist claims: groups want to become independent  Irredentist claims: groups want to attach to neighboring states  Local autonomy: want more control over local matters o Policy: want to change discriminatory policies o Regime: want to change way country is ruled - Differences (ethnic/religious) by themselves don’t cause civil wars o If differences lead to discrimination, inequality, unequal distribution of resources, political exclusion, etc. THEN policy change/regime change more likely o Discrimination more likely in case of majority and minority groups - What leads to actual violence? o Rebel group-level factors:  Minimize collective action problems and free-riding  Through common ideology creating sense of community  Size relative to government: larger size gives greater capability to fight  Access to weapons: increases capability  Establish trust  Ability to mobilize fighters o Country-level factors:  Political institutions/regime type:  Ability to repress uprisings 9more difficult for democracies than authoritarian states)  Legitimacy  Lack of representation of different groups, institutions in place  Wealth: poor countries more likely to experience civil war  Resource distribution matters more/more visible  Government capabilities: army, support base  Population/terrain: larger population= easier to find recruits/sympathetics, rebel groups prosper in mountainous terrain o International-level factors:  Foreign aid/support: training, weapons, sharing intelligence, trade (sustains economy and increases capability to fight), troops - International-level factors can play positive role too: o Resolve commitment problems o Encourage negotiation/peaceful conflict-resolution o Make it difficult for rebel groups to support themselves o Economic development and democratization  Fixes cause of wealth (or lack thereof)  Risk of short-term violence during transition  Little control over where money goes (high corruption and inefficient spending) 10/6/16 - Current event: deal between EU and Afghanistan o EU will provide $3.75 billion to Afghanistan in aid and will send back all refugees that got denied asylum o Discussion question: How do you think EU actions will affect US actions?  Could increase pressure on US because more refugees seeking asylum  Not likely that it will be as great of pressure on US as in Europe because more difficult to get there o Is there responsibility of US to help out Afghanistan because of involvement in Syrian conflict?  Yes, but difficult to decide what exactly to do  Could provide more aid, increase refugee acceptance  May no actually act on responsibility because Afghan refugees don’t have direct impact on US o Do you think treatment of Afghan refugees will impact treatment of Syrian refugees?  May be trying to decrease Afghan refugees so can increase Syrian refugees - Increased risk of civil war when: all 3 factors necessary 1. Group of people motivated by grievances/greed: unsatisfied group within a country 2. Cannot pursue goals without violence- no political means to fix problems 3. Ability to recruit fighters and acquire weapons - Civil wars as bargaining failure: o Exists a bargaining range: war is costly, so there is always an option that both sies prefer to war o Two actors are government and rebel group o Incomplete information: difficult to determine capabilities, worse in civil wars than interstate wars  Rebel groups have incentive to bluff, overstate their power to threaten/scare government  Government usually thinks they will win war- possibility of underestimation of revel capabilities  Civil wars usually have multiple factions/groups- difficult for government to determine who to fight, who is most dangerous, etc.  Less ability for prewar communication- even if wars easy to determine capabilities of rebel groups, not communicated well before war  Sercret nature of rebel financing: impossible to tell if rebel groups have resources to win  Usually involves illegal activities  Incentive to bluff  Rebels have incentive to misrepresent themselves, so governments don’t usually trust what rebels say/do (rebel actions not credible) o Commitment problems:  Prisoner’s dilemma: both sides have incentive to defect, especially if they think the other will  Bargains create power shift  Ex. Columbian government and FARC: FARC agreed to disarm and end drug trafficking in exchange for seats in government  Power shift in favor of government, giving FARC a disadvantage  FARC worried that government won’t hold up their end of the bargain with increased power  Civil wars rarely end in negotiations, usually with victory of one side over the other - How to solve information and commitment problems: o Credible third party to enforce deal  Able to punish defection - Asylum seekers must be in the country in which they want to be o Refugees can be anywhere when they apply - Refugee: outside own country, real fear of persecution in own country, unable/unwilling to go back to own country o Status granted by third party country (host of refugee camps) or UN Human Rights Council - Asylum seeker: first approved as refugee, must be in country that want asylum in - What should EU or US do about crisis? o Create/adopt new institution to make rules/standards of dealing with it  Dublin Agreement obsolete- many countries don’t follow it anymore, so need a new one o Distribute burden throughout EU  Countries with less refugees give more money to countries with more refugees o Should US take more refugees?  Yes- should give them work permits to integrate in society and not rely on welfare  Preference for skilled labor refugees (easier to integrate into society)  Difficult to do because general public opinion is fear of national security  Worried about increased terrorism with refugees


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