PSC 204 - Week 8
PSC 204 - Week 8 PSC 204- Dr. Chyzh
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This 10 page Class Notes was uploaded by Josie Rykhus on Thursday October 13, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to PSC 204- Dr. Chyzh at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa taught by Dr. Chyzh in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 6 views. For similar materials see International Relations in Political Science at University of Alabama - Tuscaloosa.
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Date Created: 10/13/16
I. Realism Recap a. State does what is in its best interests i. What matters is a state achieving results in line with their perceived interests within a dangerous environment b. Doesn’t have to be going to war i. Ex. US in Cuban Missile Crisis ii. Ex. 1991 Gulf War 1. Iraq fired over 40 SCUD missiles at Israeli cities and civilians, killing dozens a.Goal was to anger Israel into retaliation and entering the war against Iraq b.This would dissolve the Arab coalition against Hussein 2. Israel response nothing a.US pleaded with them not to do anything so Arab coalition would continue fighting, saving time and money 3. It was in Israel’s long-term interest to allow the coalition to destroy Iraq’s military 4. To safeguard against further Iraq attacks, US sent PATRIOT missiles to Israel c. Realism can mean diplomacy i. Kissinger goes to China 1. Reasons: a. Involvement in Vietnam gave US incentive to become friends with Asian powers in order to end the war b. Tensions between China and Soviet Union were increasing i. Border skirmishes (1960s) 2. US rapprochement with China changed Cold War dynamics a. Detente between US and USSR ii. Molotov-Ribbentrop Pact 1. Nazi-Soviet nonaggression pact 2. Germany can take Poland and wage war on w. Europe without Soviet intervention 3. USSR got part of Romania, Poland, Baltic States, and Finland 4. Hitler breaks the pact in June 1941 II. Civil War and Terrorism - Ch. 6 a. Civil War - wars fought between groups within a state i. Causes 1. Grievances between one or more groups and the governments a. No method of sharing power to redress those grievances 2. If the groups have resources to arm themselves and gain followers, rebellion may result 3. Discrimination against a group for linguistic, cultural, or ethnic reasons 4. Greed - one groups controls more of the state’s wealth than other groups ii. Alternatives: use the court system, elections, protests 1. If there are no alternatives politically, groups try to break away from the state or take over the state a. Ex. Taliban during 1990s b. Separatism - desire to create an independent state from territory in an existing state i. Ex. Chechnya, Tamil Tigers, Confederacy iii. Irredentism - desire to detach a region from one country and join another 1. Usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties 2. Ex. Catholics in N. Ireland, Bosnian Serbs in Bosnia 3. Group-level explanations a. Ethnic and religious groups may unite to oppose an oppressive state i. Higher levels of trust among one another ii. Geographically in close proximity 4. Probability of Civil War - Country by Country a. Ability of actors to seek changes via peaceful political means i. Democratic states face lower risks of rebellion than nondemocratic states b. Ability of authoritarian regimes to crack down on dissident populations c. Poor states whose governments lace resources (police or military force) and have widespread poverty are more likely to have groups rebelling against the government d. States with larger populations are more likely to see civil wars 5. International factors a. Outside states may aid or instigate rebel groups i. Ex. US, Russian, Saudi, Iranian, and Turkish involvement in Syria ii. Proxy wars b. Outside states may back the government because they are allies 6. Bargaining failures a. Disaffected internal actors may bargain for political gains i. Greater rights, autonomy, separatist/irredentist claims ii. Sometimes a result of: information problems, commitment problems, issue indivisibilities b. Anticipated changes in relative power among states i. One side getting weaker while other is getting stronger 1. Gaining population, international support, etc. ii. Weakening side may decide war is better now than later c. Commitment problems i. Because groups are within the same state, peace deals are hard to abide by because of distrust ii. Ex. Colombia 1. If rebels disarm, what if government disregards agreement and comes in and attacks? iii. Most civil wars end with the destruction of one side 1. Only 20-25% end with peace agreements 2. Even if peace is reached, fanatics may fight on 7. A state facing many potential rebel groups can’t let one secede, for fear of others doing the same a. Ex. Russia and Chechnya 8. Asymmetry a. Most civil wars are asymmetric b. Rebels are typically lightly armed and weaker than the government c. Goal is to overcome cost tolerance of government i. Make the cost of continuing to fight greater than the peace deal d. Best way to avoid civil war is economic development and democratization b. Terrorism - the use or threatened use of violence against noncombatants for political ends i. Goal 1. To make a civilian population fearful in hopes that the state will concede to political or social demands 2. Strategy of the weak against stronger actors 3. Use random attacks - anyone can be a victim ii. Reasons 1. Bargaining failure a. Demands too extreme b. Incomplete information i. Terrorists try to make themselves out to be stronger than they really are ii.Don’t always carry out their threats, making them even more unpredictable 2. Commitment problems a. Terrorist cells are often decentralized i. May not abide by peace or ceasefire agreements b. States are reluctant to negotiate with terrorists i. Encourages other groups to act ii.Give in to one, more will rise up 3. Issue indivisibility a. Groups with firm religious goals are unlikely to stop unless they get what they want iii. Strategies 1. Act in front of two audiences a. Government and population of target state b. Terrorist’s home population 2. Coercion a. Ex. Paris, Nice, 9/11, Madrid in 2004, London, San Bernardino, Orlando i. Madrid attacks resulted in Spanish voters ousting government willing to provide troops in Iraq war 1. Replaced with socialist government 3. Provocation - attacking to spark a response against them by the government a. If a government launches attacks and kills large number of civilians, this can provide sympathy for the terrorists b. Ex. Afghanistan, Iraq, Israeli-Palestinian 4. Spoiling - trying to sabotage possible peace deals between target state and terrorists’ home society a. Target state doubts sincerity of home society 5. Outbidding - if many rival terrorist groups exist, they try to present themselves as best group to support a. Try to show that they will gain the most for the home population i. Do this through diplomacy, economic pressure, etc. iv. How can it be prevented? 1. Deterrence usually doesn’t work a. They can avoid retaliatory responses b. Retaliation may increase support for the terrorist groups 2. Preemption - states taking the initiative to disrupt and destroy terrorist networks before they can attack a. Ex. targeted assassinations of known or suspected terrorists, use of intelligence or special forces to destroy these networks, freezing economic assets 3. Defensive measures a. Tightening security and increasing surveillance at home b. Oct. 2001 → W Bush signs into law the USA PATRIOT Act i. Increased power of immigration agencies to detain and deport those suspected of terrorist ties ii. Increased surveillance powers to tap phones without probable cause, conduct searches of private property without notifying owner (‘sneak and peek warrants”), read email c. Department of Homeland Security i. Came into existence 11 days after 9/11 ii. Emergency attempt to coordinate various agencies to safeguard against further attacks iii. Became official in Nov. 2002 iv. Largest department created since the CIA 1. Budget in 2012 of $57 billion 2. Include Coast Guard, Border Patrol, FEMA, secret service v. Black Sites and Enhanced Interrogation 1.US sent suspected terrorists and enemy combatants captured in Afghanistan to US Naval base in Guantanamo Bay a. They were subjected to military tribunals b. Standards for proving guilt are more lax than US criminal court 2.Enhanced interrogation techniques were used to get information from these suspects a. Waterboarding, sensory deprivation, maintaining stress positions for long periods, etc. 3.Independent panel reviewed the evidence and concluded that the US engaged in practices that constituted torture a. Violated federal law - UN Convention Against Torture, Geneva Convention b. 2009 → Obama and Attorney General Holder declared certain enhanced interrogation techniques torture and outlawed their use i. No prosecutions initiated vi. Expanding Presidential Power 1. Starts with PATRIOT Act → increasing since 2001 2. “Kill lists” a. President has ordered the assassination of suspected terrorists overseas 3. June 2013 → Guardian newspaper breaks story from Edward Snowden that the NSA had been secretly gathering the phone records of millions of Americans whether they were suspected terrorists or not a. US government had previously denied this 4. March 2014 → Senate Intelligence Committee computers were bugged by the CIA
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