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POLITICAL SCIENCE Class Notes 4/21 & 4/23

by: Meredith Johnson

POLITICAL SCIENCE Class Notes 4/21 & 4/23 POLS 1336

Marketplace > University of Houston > POLS 1336 > POLITICAL SCIENCE Class Notes 4 21 4 23
Meredith Johnson
GPA 3.4
US and Texas Constitution and Politics
Richard Murray

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Lecture notes from the week of April 21st. Detailed & bulleted for easier understanding.
US and Texas Constitution and Politics
Richard Murray
Class Notes
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This 7 page Class Notes was uploaded by Meredith Johnson on Saturday April 25, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to POLS 1336 at University of Houston taught by Richard Murray in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 135 views.

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Date Created: 04/25/15
Presidential elections 0 The current election 0 A different situation between two parties 0 Democratic side Favorite to win the nomination Hillary Clinton Very unusual particularly within Democratic party when no incumbent an open race because Obama is nishing last term Usually 68 democrats ghting for nomination but those talking about running don39t really have a chance 0 Republican side 19 Republicans quotauditioningquot Not all will run but at least a dozen running probably 0 Why this imbalance For democrats Hillary Clinton probably the rst woman to be nominated president 0 Why so dominating 0 Extremely unusual candidate only woman in previous history that might be compared is Eleanor Roosevelt 0 Like Hillary Clinton married to a president 0 But Eleanor could not vote for most of her life Could not serve in public of ce got political power by marrying Never ran for of ce and probably would not have had chance of winning 0 So Hillary is possibly unique 0 Lots of political experience and power 0 Born into Chicago suburban family father was RepubHcan In 605 feminist movement and other civil rights movements Clinton went to Wellsley college and did well during the turmoil of this time gave commencement address unusual for the time Admitted to Yale law school met Bill Clinton investigating Nixon 1974 Bill runs for of ce in Congress quotbetween the two of them they39ve been running ever sincequot 0 In 1991 Hillary becomes a strong political gure weakening economy open the election for the Clintons Crushed by scandals 0 Jennifer Flowers scandal 12year affair with Bill 0 Bill got a deferment from the Vietnam war Clintons agree to go on 60 Minutes to try and salvage their campaign a long interview wherein Hillary stands by Clinton Claims Flowers was lying about the relationship Secured presidential nomination with weak Democratic candidates And Bill elected President in 1992 Midterm elections went badly for the Clintons but due to weak Republican candidacy Clinton was reelected in 96 Lewinslq affair came close to ending his term as presidency only survived because Hillary stood by her husband Impeachment failed Then Hillary runs for Senate seat in New York although she has almost no connection to the state becomes US senator As the former rst lady many Senators interested in her interests but she quotblended inquot reelected to the Senate in 2006 and launches presidential bid in 2007 What went wrong with the campaign 0 Underestimated Barack Obama 0 Ran a poor internal campaign a poor team not very good on the reason she should be president Washington establishment backed Obama that move knocked Hillary out Many of her supporters urged Hillary not to back the new nominee rejected that advice endorsed Obama quotLoyal soldierquot 0 One of the reasons she39s now important in the Democratic Party a team player Resigned from Secretary of State appointment at the end of the rst Obama administration now regarded as the quotbest shotquot of the Democratic Party RepubHcans Why are there so many people 31 out of 50 state have Republican governors historically governors and former governors are most likely to be nominated for president Many governors decide now that Obama is out time to run So Jindall Walker et cetera lots of governors and former governors announcing presidential runs Senate not a good launching pad but three Senators giving up Senate seat to run for presidency A good chance for an insurgent because of the process 0 Before the republican convention we expect someone to have gotten enough delegates to be locked in for nomination 0 Important which states go rst 0 Start in Iowa go to New Hampshire then to South Carolina then Nevada all happen before March 1 Iowa uses caucus rather than primary most people don39t go to the caucus More current election news John Kacich governor of Ohio very likely to enter the presidential race Successful governor private businessman Prof thinks he could be a strong candidate for nomination Today we re talking about voters Again tend to live in an echo chamber re opinions befriend people we like people who agree with us But it39s a big country What the electorate at large at like is dif cult to gure out PEW report 0 Current 0 Big sample size 25k means that the authors can look at pretty small groups Focused on partisanship being closer to one political party than another Puts leaners and partyidenti ers together when put together Democrats have advantage 48 of adults say they39re Democrat or lean Democrat 39 RepubHcan Democrats struggling because the Republican population just tends to vote more Generally expect close elections Basic aspects of partisanship Age 0 Four categories generations of votingage Americans Millennials 1834 Big generation those who were born in the late 805 early 905 Gen Xers 3449 Lots of parents Baby Boomers 5067 Tend to be born right after WWII Silent Generation 6886 Not a lot of 87 voters o Millennials just now becoming the largest single group 0 Generational shifts becoming pretty big in partisanship o In 1992 oldest generation pretty Democratic and youngest generation pretty evenly split 0 2015 most Democratic group is Millennials most Republican group is the Silent Generation The older you are the more likely you are to lean Republican the younger the more Dem Groups in the middle more evenly split 0 Why do these patterns exist Gender ReaganCarter election rst view of gender gap Women more likely to be Democratic men likely to be evenly split or lean Republican 0 O 0 Why Politics has gotten more involved with value and moral issues samesex marriage et cetera Not a big issue in 92 but many people now have feelings and increasingly broken along age lines Millennials quotfine not a big dealquot amp Democrats mostly okay with it Older Americans pretty collectively opposed amp so are the Republicans Generations and the economy Baby boomers pretty welloff as a generation Born as the economy was rising good jobs et cetera A period where quotrising tide lifted all boatsquot bigger cars bigger houses bigger incomes Previous generation also bene ted 0 So silent generation and baby boomers kind of got lucky With Gen X things were quotokquot wage growth attening out especially for workingclass jobs that didn39t have a lot of education Been going down since 90 Millennials lost a lot of good jobs in manufacturing and wages go down where they survive Younger workers a lot less economically secure A lot ofjobs but mostly in service areas crappy jobs 0 Young generation affected by the economic recession 0 Education not a guarantee of economic security 0 So younger generation is somewhat more supportive of a governmental quotsafety netquot incurring less debt when going to college repaying debt so tend to support Democrats more With people living longer there becomes the problem of tending to the elderly of America requires more people to do this Women tend to be more in need of government support less interested in spending money on foreign wars and defense which Democrats tend to agree with Lean democratic by about 15 Men who identify Republican are just more likely to vote RaceEthnicity o The racial group most supportive of one political party African Americans Tend to support the Democratic Party by a huge margin Funny considering Democrats were proslavery and Republicans were Lincoln39s party but in 30 s party lines changed white Southern conservatives moved into Republican party the Democratic party became more welcoming to the black population 0 Hispanics A diverse group Most Latinx people do not consider themselves Hispanic separate themselves sectionally CubanAmericans Puerto Ricans et cetera A sectional difference CubanAmericans tend to be Republicans but they are an outlier MexicanAmericans and Puerto Ricans are heavily Democratic and generally a similar trend w Latinx people Republicans now attempting to change voting patterns by appealing to the Latinx population not a presidential candidate probably a vicepresidential candidate Hispanic immigration continuing so this group will probably grow Many Hispanic voters don39t ally with a party but watch which candidate seems more respectful of their community 0 Asians Lean pretty strongly Democratic California has a large Asian population and is pretty Democratic as is Hawaii New York as well has a lot of AsianAmericans Growing but mostly not in the highly competitive states quotsafely democraticquot Educann 0 Back in 20th the more education you had the more Republican you were higher incomes more sensitive to taxes et cetera o In 21St century the most educated Americans Law school graduate school medical school et cetera are pretty Democratic 0 Education particularly postgrad education means more support for Democrats Probably because of social issues if going along these educational paths operating in environments where social issues are more liberal People who are more critical and conservative of social issues tend to be older generations Leaners and identi ers towards Democrats are harder to get to vote even though they have a 9 advantage Republicans are older have voted before feel more strongly about these issues and are more likely to go to the polls Historically young adults don39t vote too much with the democrats more dependent on the young generation this might be a problem unless they can motivate young adults to go vote Much more challenging for older Hillary Clinton than younger Barack Obama 0 Clinton a Baby boomer can she connect with millennials If she cannot she can easily lose the election unless Millennials vote the Democratic Party is not going to do well Movement in the electorate Religion 0 After WW2 had a huge rise in secularism churches pretty deserted Younger generation had less religious sense of identity and church attendance plunged o This was not the case in the US more people still attend church still have a sense of religious identity Considerably more religiously oriented more religious faiths such as Buddhism and Islam Relatively a religious country 0 BUT MILLENNIALS less so Fewer religious identity much less likely to go to church 0 ln partisan terms a person with no religious identity tends to be more Democratic or a Democratic leaner A person who has a religious identity tends to be more Republican Doesn t matter what religion stronger religious identi ers tend to be more Republican This could reverse but if Europe is a model secularism will increase rapidly Once you lose people39s con dence it s hard to get it back Less faith in authority gures including religious gures 0 Historically the more religious side would win now a pretty even division 0 And moral issues contribute to this political polarization Harder to have a civil conversation with people you disagree with politically because the division is so stark O


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