HPHY 212 Lecture Notes Week 5
HPHY 212 Lecture Notes Week 5 HPHY 212
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This 1 page Class Notes was uploaded by Scott Morrison on Friday May 1, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to HPHY 212 at University of Oregon taught by Dr. Andrew Karduna in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 91 views. For similar materials see Evidence, Inference and Biostatistics in Human Development at University of Oregon.
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Date Created: 05/01/15
HPHY 212 Lecture Notes Week 5 Inference Drawing of conclusions about a population based on what you observe from a sample size Probablilty The basis of statistics A percentage of the chance of something happening If an event is truly random then it is independent of other events However you can make predictions out of a series of independent events The Monty Hall Problem You are on a game show and are given three doors to choose from Behind one door is a car and behind the other two doors are goats You want the car You select a door but before opening it the host opens one of the other doors revealing a goat The host then asks if you want to switch the door you have for the other remaining door Should you It may at first seem like you have a 5050 chance of getting the car given that there are only two closed doors However it isn t exactly 5050 You know that the host knows where the car is and that the host has revealed a goat Given your original chances of picking the car 30 you know that the door you ve picked is probably not the car When the host reveals a goat you are left with two doors one of which is more probably not the car the one you picked and another door which has a higher chance of being the car This means that switching your door for the other one will always give you a higher probability of winning the car
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