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by: Otho Lowe MD


Otho Lowe MD
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This 18 page Class Notes was uploaded by Otho Lowe MD on Friday September 4, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ASIAN 0251 at University of California - Los Angeles taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 88 views. For similar materials see /class/177929/asian-0251-university-of-california-los-angeles in Asian at University of California - Los Angeles.




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Date Created: 09/04/15
Solving California s Foreclosure Crisis Local Impacts and Strategic Responses Presented by the Lewis Centerfor Regional Policy Studies UC 39 LA School of Public Affairs May 1 2009 900 AM 520 PM om Bradley International Hall University of California Los Angeles UCLA 417 Chancellor Charles E Young Drive West Los Angeles CA 90095 UCLA sCHOOL 0 PUBLIC AFFAIRS U c AN LA ZIM can run Rm 25m Opening Remarks Assemblymember Ted W Lieu aducatinn health care veterans issues and transpnnaliun allartha Rampart scandal and issued Strung racnmmandatinns Dr ralnrm 830 900 AM 900 920 AM 920 1045 AM 1045 1100 AM 1100 1220 PM Checkin Welcome and Opening Remarks JR DeShazo Director Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies Allison Yoh Assoc Director Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies The Honorable Ted Lieu California Assembly 53rd District Getting Our Bearings Why are we in the midst ofa historic housing crisis How has it played out across neighborhoods localities and states particularly California What are the conditions that render people and places susceptible to foreclosure Where can we expect foreclosures to concentrate in the next few years This rst session will provide answers to these questions and address lingering gaps in our knowledge 0 Gary Dymski Professor Department of Economics UC Riverside 0 Rani Isaac Economist and Senior Research Specialist California Research Bureau 0 Paul Ong Professor School of Public Affairs and Asian American Studies UCLA 0 Paul VWIen Senior Economist and Policy Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Boston Moderator Michael Teitz Senior Fellow Public Policy Institute of California Break Session 2 Assessing Effects Economic and Social Impacts of the Crisis on Neighborhoods Localities and States The foreclosure crisis is having multiple effects on multiple scales While declines in property values and permitting affect neighborhoods and localities reductions in consumption and the contraction of the construction industry have broader effects This session addresses how the foreclosure crisis is affecting household wealth neighborhood stability and state and local scal health 0 Avis JonesDeWeever Director ofthe Research Public Policy and Information Center National Council of Negro Women 0 Elizabeth Laderman Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco 0 Melvin Oliver Professor of Sociology and Dean of Social Sciences University of California at Santa Barbara with Emily Tumpson Molina Graduate Student Department of Sociology University of California at Santa Barbara 0 Danilo Pelletiere Research Director National LowIncome Housing 1230 145 PM 145 200 PM 200 320 PM 320 330 PM Coalition Moderator Deirdre Pfeiffer Doctoral Student Department of Urban Planning UCLA Lunch Session Break Session 3 Charting the Course Part 1 Public and NonProfit Sector Responses to the Crisis Public and nonpro t sector responses are occurring on multiple scales In 2008 the federal government not only enacted a 700 billion bailout ofthe nancial sector but also allocated close to 4 billion to states and localities to aid the purchasing rehabilitation resale and land banking ofvacant properties Meanwhile states have passed legislation that bans highcost mortgage products protects borrowers and improves nancial education and some localities require lenders to maintain foreclosed properties until they are sold and are exploring methods to house lower income families in persistently vacant properties Housing counseling agencies are helping vulnerable households avoid foreclosure and based organizations are responding comprehensively through crime prevention counseling and neighborhood beauti cation among other strategies Yet unchecked trends in exurban development and racial and economic segregation may continue to render households neighborhoods and localities economically and socially precarious How can state and local policymakers prevent future crises by shaping more equitable and stable urban environments 0 Phil Ansell Director of Program and Policy Department of Public Social Services Los Angeles County 0 Alan Mallach Visiting NonResident Fellow Metropolitan Policy Program Brookings Institution 0 Blair Taylor President and CEO Los Angeles Urban League Moderator Caryn Becker Policy Counsel Center for Responsible Lending Break 330 450 PM 450 510 PM 515 630 PM Session 4 Charting the Course Part 2 Private Sector Responses to the Crisis The private sector plays a critical role in responding to the crisis and preventing future occurrences In particular nancial institutions can help households rework their mortgage terms and stay in their homes while foundations provide resources needed to coordinate responses across sectors How can banks most effectively serve lower income minority communities Another looming question is how to prevent future crises through strategic real estate development Recent research shows the in uence of unstable as opposed to stable price appreciation on foreclosure rates yet how do policymakers developers and buyers distinguish between the two 0 Armando de la Libertad Senior Vice President of Community Development Wells Fargo Bank 0 Paul C Hudson Chairman and CEO Broadway Federal Bank 0 Katherine Perez Executive Director Urban Land Institute Los Angeles 0 Steve Pontell CEO of California Capital Real Estate Services and President of La Jolla Institute Moderator Stuart Gabriel Arden Realty Chair Professor of Finance and Director Richard S Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA Closing Remarks 0 JR DeShazo Director Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies Cocktail Reception Speaker Biographies 1 3 Phil Ansell nas been tne Drreetbr bt tne Bureau at Pm rarn and Angeres Cuunty Departrnent bt Pubh sberar Servrees srnee Nuvember mus Hers resbbnsrbre turtne Carvvo Ks e Sta AF39 3 ovv 3 N mps Generar Rehef c r R and Ar prugrams as WEH as state and teeerar budgetregrsratrve advucacy and terageneyrer truns e as brevruusr tn r r C t a e v ere e e b teeerar vvertare retbrrn rn 1997798 rn addmum ne nas been resbbnsrbre ur e g urbemg tne DPSS read rn rnarbrState and bear mteragency aryn Becker serves as F39uhcy cbunser rn tne Oak and Cahfurma af ne uttne Center tbr Resbbnsrbre Lenerng cm a nunepru t researen and puhcy urgamzatmn sne pruvrdes regar b HHaH arrure puH rbre e u serves n tne CunsurnerFrna erar Servrees Curnrnrttee uttne Busrness Lavv Seetan uf tne State Bar uf Cahfurma Pnurtu rurnrng CRL Ms Beckerwas a partner at tne avvfrrm Lreff Cabraser Hermann e Bernstern LLFquot vvnere sne sbent nr e vears rebresentrng cunsume s rn eases rnvbrvrng predatury Endmg nnanerar abuser unebnserbnabre bn W aHu tn rumau r M a a rrrrarr Hm UH urrrer Atturnevs m m we r ar arur rn r r r tnerrseeurrty eebbsrts avaenbbrrn b D 1995 dmumrdr D Amanda de la Libertad serves as SenrbrVree Presrdent bt anagesrn Es tmenmen rng and rvr suppu u racy and rub trarnrng Hrs bassrun he rn Expandmg eeunurnre uppunumw rsn e beers suppun WEHS Fargu rs rated as tnbre nu standrng federar guvemmentfur sueeess rn eurnrnunrty rernvestrnent Armandu bravs an aetrve rbre rn ummumty attarrs sbrne bt nrs tavbrrte rThE r a r at cbrnrneree Crtv Lrgnts Drearn Center Tne Eh Hbrne Krqurks Maternar Outreaen MOM 5 tne and tne oc Huusmg Trus t JR DeShazo is an Associate Professor in the School of Public Policy and Social Research at the University of California at Los Angeles He received his BA from the College of William and Mary his MSc from Oxford University where he was a Rhodes Scholar and his PhD from Harvard University He was a faculty associate at the Harvard Institute for International Development 19972000 and is currently Director of the Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies at UCLA Gary Dymski is the founding Director of the University of California Center Sacramento UCCS He came to UCCS from the University of California Riverside where he holds the rank of professor of economics Gary received his BA in urban studies from the University of Pennsylvania in 1975 an MPA from Syracuse University in 1977 and a PhD in economics from the University of Massachusetts Amherst in 1987 Dr Dymski s most recent books are Capture and Exclude Developing Nations and the Poor in Global Finance Tulika Books New Delhi 2007 coedited with Amiya Bagchi and Reimagining Growth Toward a Renewal of the Idea of Development coedited with Silvana DePaula Zed London 2005 Dr Dymski has published more than 100 articles and chapters on banking financial fragility urban development creditmarket discrimination the Latin American and Asian financial crises economic exploitation and housing finance Stuart A Gabriel is Director of the Ziman Center for Real Estate at UCLA and is Arden Realty Chair and Professor of Finance at the UCLA Anderson School of Management His research focuses on topics of real estate finance and economics housing and mortgage markets urban and regional economics and macroeconomics Prior to joining the UCLA faculty Dr Gabriel was the Lusk Chair in Real Estate and Professor of Finance and Business Economics at the University of Southern California He also previously served on the economics staff of the Federal Reserve Board in Washington DC and was a Visiting Scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of California Berkeley His most recent research focuses on efficiency and equity outcomes in mortgage markets the effects of housing wealth on macroeconomic activity house price fluctuations and the mortgage pricing effects of derivative mortgagebacked securities He is a past President of the American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association and currently serves on its Board of Directors Paul Hudson TSChaTrman and ChTEf Exeeutwe Of ceruf ruadway b nk t tthe Mtsst tppt Eruadvv F u T s tse Edmg 4M rnnhen and uperates We qu senTEE hranehes senmg the Seuth CetT thr sm htt 21947 n tjmmng father Hudsun Sanduz and ruvvn e Ts a rnern er at the state m abars Cu ststent Wth a tarnny tradmun er ummumty SENTEE Mr Hudsun s a past Presteent etthe Lu AngeTes NAACP and past Chavman etthe n mm Centertur T CunnemEdrThe Cummumty Eu d m and Ebuny Repertery Theatre i Isaac started her areerw the prwate samurwurkmg m Ran Ecunumms furfwe years at McGraverTH m ts NEWYur H qua as ter urtvv eunsr e u ms trumenta Tnthe nnversmn trernthree separate paperjuuma stu Webrbase pm m She has aTse served m many TeveTs er guvemment as a eernegraphereeenerntst ter a we Ceunen er Guvemments as a eensmtant and eeenerntsttertvve hranehes er the federa guvemment that were cundumng MdH m t where she nnnmannn a WEHas ngs atmm and as a researcher and Ecunumwstfur Cahfurma s Francmse Tax Euard Avis A JonesDeWeever Ph D sthe Dtreeter uf the Research Pubh F39uhcy and nfurmatmn Center ter Atnean Arnenean The RPF t e mfurm ata yze and mumth Atnean Arnenean Wumen ter ehange m bath the puhcy arena and threugheutthe hreaderemturax dynamu Dr JuneerEWEEvEHs the auther er numeruus pubhcatmns fucused un puhcwssues er pamemartrnpertanee te Wumen eteexer A seTeenen ufherwurks heme tosrng Ground Women andme Foreclosure Cnsrs Women m e he Women of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast The Black Women and Families Agenda for Change and the recently released Black Girls in New York City Untold Strength amp Resilience Dr JonesDeWeever s policy perspectives have been shared through a variety of media outlets including CNN PBS ABC News Now Voice of America Television the Canadian Broadcasting Corporation National Public Radio Sirius and XM Radio Glamour Magazine Pink Magazine Essence Magazine the New York Times the Washington Post the Huffington Post and Vital Speeches of the Day Dr JonesDeWeever received her PhD in Government and Politics from the University of Maryland College Park and also serves as an Affiliated Scholar with the Institute for Women s Policy Research LiZ Laderman is an economist in the Research Department of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco She received her BA in mathematics from Grinnell College and her PhD in economics from the University of California at Berkeley Her research interests include bank market structure small business lending and financial market issues related to lowincome communities She has written numerous articles on banking for Federal Reserve and other publications Alan Mallach is a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Metropolitan Policy Program of The Brookings Institution in Washington DC where his work focuses on foreclosures neighborhood stabilization and the revitalization of older industrial cities He is also a visiting scholar in the community affairs department of the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and a lecturer in the graduate city planning program at Rutgers University He has been a consultant advocate and public official including serving as Director of the Department of Housing amp Development in Trenton New Jersey from 1990 to 1999 His latest book A Decent Home Planning Building and Preserving Affordable Housing has just been published by Planners Press and the University of Chicago Press He is also the author of Bringing Buildings Back From Vacant Properties to Community Assets and many other works on city planning housing and Italian opera He is a member of the College of Fellows of the American Institute of Certified Planners and holds a BA degree from Yale University Emily Tumson Molina is a doctoral student in the Department of Sociology at the University of California Santa Barbara She earned her BA in Women39s and Gender Studies from American University and her MA in Anthropology from George Washington University where she focused on race and the history of housing policy in 20th century Washington DC She is interested in urban sociology housing race and social policy and spatial methods in the social sciences Her current research explores how patterns of subprime lending in California contributed to the maintenance of residential segregation Melvin L Oliver is the SAGE Sara Miller McCune Dean of Social Sciences in the Division of Social Sciences and Professor of Sociology at the University of California Santa Barbara UCSB Prior to coming to UCSB he was Vice President of the Asset Building and Community Development Assets Program at the Ford Foundation This program helped to build human social economic environmental and interpersonal assets among poor and disadvantaged individuals and communities throughout the world During his tenure at the Foundation the Assets Program developed pioneering grant initiatives such as the 50 Million Self HelpFannieMae program to secure home mortgages for 35000 low wealth households and change the way banks evaluate applications for home mortgages the American Dream demonstration on Individual Development Accounts and the Leadership for a Changing World Program a recognition program to identify and support leaders and to highlight the importance of leadership in improving people39s lives An expert on racial and urban inequality and poverty Dr Oliver is the coauthor with Thomas M Shapiro of Black WealthNVhite Wealth A New Perspective on Racial Ineguality Tenth Anniversam Edition published 20061 which has received the Distinguished Scholarly Publication Award from the American Sociological Association the C Wright Mills Award from the Society for the Study of Social Problems and the award for the outstanding book on the subject of human rights from the Gustavus Myers Center Paul Ong is a professor of urban planning social welfare and Asian American studies He is the director of the UC AAPI Asian American and Pacific Islander Policy Multicampus Research Program former chair of the UCLA Department of Urban Planning and former director of the Ralph and Goldy Lewis Center for Regional Policy Studies Dr Ong is trained as an urban planner and economist and is an expert on the labor market status of minorities and immigrants displaced high tech workers and work and welfare policies He is involved in several projects including a study of Asian American civic and political engagement California39s housing policy and the socioeconomic base 7 of neighborhoods Dr Ong has served as an advisor to the US Bureau of the Census the US Small Business Administration the National Cancer Institute the California Department of Social Services the state Department of Employment Development the South Coast Air Quality Management District the California Wellness Foundation and the Getty Foundation Danilo Pelletiere has been the Research Director of the National Low Income Housing Coalition since 2003 He has published widely with recent contributions appearing in Empirical Economics Applied Research in Economic Development and Cityscape Priorto joining GMU he held various positions at George Mason University World Resources Institute and Virginia39s Center for Innovative Technology Dr Pelletiere received his BA in history and regional science from the University of Pennsylvania and his PhD in public policy from George Mason University in 2003 where he continues to teach and research as a Senior Fellow at the School of Public Policy He is a past Fulbright scholar in the field of economic development in Rostock Germany atherine Aguilar Perez rs tne ExeCutrye Drrector oftne Urban Land ns trtute LosAngetes Drs trrCtCounCH Wm ner ryerse haCkground rn onyate rear estate deve opmem goyernrnentat poncy and urban otannrn sne nas erner ed as one ortne rnostartrcutate and 2 E gazrne arso recognrzed ner as an Outstanmng Leader PreyrousryMs rum a we rcur ve tubHt uu er wHuHH r e markets sne recer eu net 5 and nerBaCnemrs Degree rn Pontrcar Scrence rrorn CarState Nortnndge Deirdre Pfeiffer rs a second year doctorar student rn tne UCLA DepanmentofUrhan Ptannrn Heroast researcn nas addressed puer nousrng redeyem ment econornrcaHy rntegratrye nousrng names and tongrterm rnuttrracrat nergnoornood rntegratron n more recent rnterest are tne factors dnyrn L05 Angeres County Arncan AmerrCans socrar rno rnty Commumtydevempmem soendrngtne nrst to years ornrs career as tne oresrdent and CEO o tnree mfferentnonrprofrthusrness orgamzauons Mr PonteH deyerooed rnsrgnts rntotne rnnerworkmgs or cornrnunrtres and nonrprofrtorgamzauons Mr Ponterrtnenrauncned nrs own Consu trngfrrmeThe Work Consurtrng Group Wormer wrtn nrs partners to create tne workorace ortne future tney suCCessquy rrnprernented rnnoyatrye projeCIS across tne country ort e astfrve ye rs Mr PonteH nas served as tne CEO ortne De Oro Group WWW deoro rou Com one or Cahforma s targest and rastest growmg tne Latrno rnarket race Mr PonteH nasan undergraduate d g Crty and Regronar Prannrng rrorn Car Pmy San tursoorsoo and a enter Blair Hamilton Taylor rs the Presrdent and CEO dtthe Lu uE an attrhate Dfune dtthe natmn s teadrng th ver 999 and a pudget rn Excess at 29 mman Angetes Urban League rs pne DfAmEHEa s targest th nghts entrtres Mr Tavtdr rndst reeenttv served as the Execuuve V922 Presrdent pt CuHege Surnrnrt a natrdnat eduege aeeess rnrtratrve wrth a track reedrd pt neanv dpuphng the edHege EnruHmEnt rates at tdw rnedrne students rnt eeprnrnunrtresrt serves r avtdr s entrepreneunat backgruund netudestdur ears asthe Presrdent and CEO at COMCD a teadrng re s d the Canppean Fur hrsprdneenng Effurts Mr Ta tprwas narned Cahfurma s Mass Mutuat E ue Chrp quotEntrepreneurotthe Vear m 1999 and was treguenttv reedgnrzed n T Weehrv Fortune Magazine Franchrse Times PC Ward Successful Franchrsrng Magazine and Franchrse Trrnes Magazrne Hrs puphe seetdr expenenee rnetudes servrng as a Senrdr Staff Hmth n t r rng redtsmctmg puphe safety and eedndrnre devetdprnent rnrtratrves Michael B T 2 rs Ernentus Prufessur uf Crtv and Regrunat Ptannrng atthe Unrversrtv pt Cahfurma Berketey where he taught trdrn 1999 td 1999 and SemurFeHuW at the Pubh F39uhcy tnstrtute pt nn 299472995 he was atsd Edward A Dmksun S 9 M s m 3e t Regrdnat Serenee trdrnthe Unrversrtv dtPennsvtvanra Authdrdta pgraphv trprn the Unrversrtv Dstcunsm and a Ph D n t e hasatsd served as a Dnsmtant and advrsdrtp tdeah state and natrdnat s rnternatrdnauv uphe years and served as rts Drreetdr at Research trdrn t 999 td 2992 Paul Willen rs a Senrdr Eennurnrst and Puhev Advrsdr tn the Research Department at the Federat Reserve Bank at Eustun Dr e researeh has appeared drwm appear shumy tn the Revrew pt Eedndrnres and Stausucs Eedndrnre T envy the ddurnat pt Frnanee the ddurnat pt Pubh Ecunumms the ddurnat at Urban Ecunumms the Maerd Annuah the Emu rngs Papers Dn Eedndrnre Aetrvrtv and etsewhere Dr then sreseareh pnthe ungrns dtthe suppnrne ensrs nv rt rn r Fed Dr When was un thetaeuttv at F39rmcetun andthe Unrversrtv ptChreagd Dr When has r Pam drd hrs undergraduate wer atvvrurarns cduege and gut hrs PhD trdrn Yate Unrversrtv Why did modern human populations disperse from Africa cu 60000 years ago A new model Paul Mellars Department of Archaeology Cambridge University Downing Street Cambridge 02 302 England Edited by oter EareYosef Harvard university Cambridge MA and Aprii i0 2006 received for review Deem ber 23 2005 Recent research has provided increasing support for the origins of anatomicaiiy and genetically quotmodernquot human populations in Af rica between 150000 and 200000 years ago llowed by a maior dispersal of these populations to both Asia and Europe sometime aft r ca 5500 before present P However the entral que ion of w it these populations 100000 ears to disperse from Africa to other i n of the wo I as never been clearly resolved it is suggested here that th ns e aitiy in the results of recent A studies of present day African populations combined with a spate of new archaeological discoveries in Africa Studies of both Is 39 39 39 39 39 39 I39 I sis patterns point to a major demographic expansion centered broadly within the time range from 30000 to 50000 EP probably deriving from 39 region nf Africa 39 39 39 39 d t 39 at approximater the same time there was a major increase in the complexity of the technological economic social and cognitive be avioroi rtalnAfr ng ups i o d avele i 39 39 Is 39 quot 39 diacent g ups it is suggested that this complex of behavi changes possibly triggered by the rapid environmental changes around the transition from oxygen isotope stage 5 to stage 0 Australasia and Europe and their ieplacement with or without interbree arthaeoiogyi DNA i modern humans i Paiaeoiithit ur understanding of the origins of modem human populations decades We now know f m studies of both the DNA patterning ofpiesemrday remains that populatiors that were eenr tially modem in both a genetic and an 39 quot in fr39ra by at least 150000 years ago 14 We 4 Oral 4 could have led hat on y t As noted earlier the answer to these questions seems to lie partly in the results 0 c a of these modern populations over most ding or the preceding quotarchaicquot populations in these regions 0 the expansion of the L2 and L3 mitochon regions of Asia of mitochondrially modem populatiors in Africa f repent geographical groups of presentrday Afrir can populations and part1 in a number of riking new archaeological d39scoveries at 39 h A frira The Afrimn DNA Evidence hem 39 DNA studies of presentrday human popus ranh39v dence Am 39 39 by Ha ending Rogers Sherry 90 en pairs of rndrvr within a population which revealed a clearly fined peak in A rican popula tions dated broadly to esoooo years c n n also now persed from Africa to most other pam of am the world by at least 40000 years P P e preexisting archaic populations such as place have never been clearly resolved Two critical issues are posed by this recent research irst we now least 150000 years ago why did it take these populations a fun r 00000 years quotSpelse to r g n r e rid 1 2 s 1042 And second what were the cnrcial evolutionary and adaptive tie it controversial 39 A f friran populatiors being no exception Debates we a c c A39u genetic loci L 39 39 tion on DNA attems and the potential complications of demographic dispersals and back migrations between differert re 39nn quot r 39 39 ing ngerprints of demographic history in c c 1 c msolved 27 lse22 Evidence 39 39 UN ImrDN 39 only a small segnert ofthe total human genome has the advantage of unusually a ea r lowed 1 39 in Asian and European populations at 60000 and 40000 BP see Fig 1 mm c c c c a population expansions depends on the accuracy oftlre assumed mutation rate of mtDNA 2 3 s but the evidence as a 39 j and apparently rapid increase in African popus 39 39 man that pamprimr d 39 39tln 39 D A W of a demographic diffusion wavequot 15 from a relatively small population nucleus 39 39 ly small 39 nartly if not Pmirpl L lineage and apparertly few if any ef ec 11 In the present context tirereforeit Is interestiqg to see at two separate ap proaches to the analys39s of mtDNA pats A farr region c c 2amp25 More recently strong support ior this pattem has been rovided by detailed mtDNA lineageamlys39s studies of mode to oolonize alien envim a range of entirely new and E gq replace org a l and presumably well adapted are chaic populatiors in these regiors 2 8 1314 172 wwwpriaxoigtgidoiio1073pria05107 2103 A r row e ancestral Africa populatiors certered broadly within the time range rom Thi paper was ubmitted direttiy mats H to the PNAS onite 6000010 30000 yeals ago isquot Abbreviation MBA Miooie StoneAge some 100030 yeais after the in ened quotE4020 DENSSQGN 201K CA PNAS i June 20 2006 i voi i03 i no 25 i 93813336 he 01 W I he 01 q a lt m 0 N mtDNA Mismatch 30175 Europe 5 Distributions 015 D 9 0125 D 5 01 g 0075 S 005 0025 O quotu 20 30 Difference Fig 1 mtDNA mismatch distributions of presentday African Asian and European popula tions showing the frequency distribution of differ ences between pairs of individuals in the three pop ulations The modes of the three distributions clearly reflect a much earlier demographic expansion of Af rican populations ca 80000 BP than those in Asia ca 60000 BP and Europe ca 40000 BP 23 25 ern African populations by Watson For ster Salas Kivisild Macaulay and others 2 8 9 26 28 Once again the precise timing of these lineage expansions de pends on the assumed mutation rate of mtDNA but in all of these studies there is evidence for What Forster and Mat sumura 28 have recently described as a remarkable expansion of the distinctive L2 and L3 mitochondrial lineages dating broadly to between ca 80000 and 60000 BP 2 8 9 26 28 Fig 2 As in the case of the mismatch analyses the evi dence points to an expansion centered initially in one small area of Africa most probably in eastern or southern Africa followed by an expansion to other regions apparently reaching western Africa by at least 30000 40000 BP and perhaps across the mouth of the Red Sea to the adjacent parts of southern Asia by 60000 65000 BP 2 8 9 28 Whether this dispersal of the L2 and L3 lineages reflects an actual dispersal of dis crete human populations or simply a c x V WL W L31 fx 80000 60000 BP Fig 2 Inferred patterns of geographical dis persal of the L2 and L3 mtDNA lineages in Africa between ca 80000 and 60000 BP according to Forster 2 Later dispersals of the M N and R lineages into Asia and Europe after 65000 BP derive from the L3 lineage rapid expansion in these specific mito chondrial types amongst the existing Afri can populations remains perhaps more debatable But in either case it is clear that some significant demographic or cul tural factors must have promoted these lineage expansions at roughly the same time as the mtDNA mismatch analyses point to a rapid increase in total popula tion numbers from some localized geo graphical source A similar expansion in African populations has also been claimed from some studies of DNA microsatellite data although With less specific age esti mates 3 Archaeological Evidence The central question is What could have caused this apparently dramatic expansion in African populations 60000 80000 BP and it is here that recent archaeolog ical research in southern and central Af rica becomes central to the interpretation of the demographic data The most rele vant evidence at present comes from a number of sites located close to the south ern tip of Africa in Cape Province most notably from Blombos Cave and Klasies River on the southern coast and those of Boomplaas Cave and Diepkloof further to the north and west 29 40 Fig 3 These are backed up by a number of rather less well documented sites in east ern and central Africa 34 41 43 The general time range of these sites is that of the African Middle Stone Age MSA extending from w250000 to 40000 BP and coinciding broadly With the Middle Palaeolithic or Mousterian periods in Europe and Asia 44 45 But the rele vant evidence from the socalled Still Bay levels in the Blombos Cave and the ensuing Howiesons Poort levels at Kla sies River Boomplaas and Diepkloof can be dated specifically to the later stages of the MSA between ca 75000 and 55000 BP 35 46 47 Although the archaeological assem blages from these sites have traditionally been attributed to the MSA they reveal a number of radical technological and cul tural features that collectively contrast sharply With those of the earlier African MSA sites and Which show many resem blances to those that appear in Europe and western Asia With the arrival of the first anatomically and genetically modern populations at 45000 50000 BP the period of the socalled Upper Palaeo lithic revolution 17 45 48 50 These assemblages include for example new patterns of blade technology produced by means of soft hammer techniques of flaking 29 32 51 new forms of both specialized skin working tools endscrap ers and tools for the controlled shaping of bone and wooden artefacts socalled burin forms 32 35 a range of exten 9382 wwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas0510792103 Sahara Desen Diepkloof Bo mplaas Blombos Klasies River 0 2000 km Fig 3 Map of archaeological sites and early anatomically modern human remains in Africa and Israel referred to in text sively shaped bone tools apparently used as both tips of throwing spears and sharply pointed ans for skin working 36 37 neW forms of carefully shaped stone inserts probably used as tips and barbs of either hafted throwing spears or conceiv ably wooden arrows 30 32 34 51 large numbers of perforated estuarine shells evidently used as personal ornaments of some kind 39 and large quantities of imported red ochre including two pieces from the Blombos cave With carefully in cised and relatively complex geometrical designs on their surfaces 38 These de signs represent the earliest unambiguous forms of abstract art so far recorded Figs 4 and 5 Equally significant in these sites is the evidence for the large scale distribution or exchange of both highquality stone for tool production and the recently discovered shell beads from the Blombos cave in both cases either transported or traded over distances of at least 20 30 km 31 39 All of these fea tures show a striking resemblance to those Which characterize fully modern or Up per Palaeolithic cultures in Europe and western Asia Which first appeared With the initial arrival of anatomically and be haviorally modern populations at 45000 50000 BP ie some 20000 years later than their appearance in the African sites 17 45 48 50 As Hen shilwood 35 has recently commented the combination of these behavioral inno vations in the Still Bay and succeeding Howiesons Poort levels at these South African sites seems to reflect a dynamic period of diverse technological behavior not previously seen in the African Middle Stone Age Population Expansion The critical importance of these neW ar chaeological discoveries is that they may Mellars Stone tools from the MSA Howiesons Poort levels at Klasies River South Africa dated to ca 65000 BP showing closely similar forms of blades end scrapers burins and small hafted segment forms to those found in European and Asian Upper Palaeolithic sites from ca 45000 BP onwards 32 Fig 4 provide the explanation for the major ex pansion in African populations Which is reflected so clearly in the recent mtDNA evidence dated broadly to between 80000 and 60000 BP The precise cultural and demographic mechanisms that underlay the population expansion inevitably re main more hypothetical At least four as pects of the archaeological data however could be significant in this context The first is that the character of the artefacts recovered from both the Blombos Cave and the Howiesons Poort levels at Klasies River and elsewhere would appear to re flect the emergence of more complex forms of hunting equipment apparently involving the construction of several dif ferent forms of hunting weapons ie the sharply pointed bone spear heads and the bifacial leafpoint forms from the Blom bos cave and the appearance of compos ite multiplecomponent hafted weapons in the Howiesons Poort levels at Klasies River and other sites 31 34 37 Fig 4 The possibility has been suggested that some of these forms could well have served as the tips and barbs of wooden arrows based on comparisons With similar artefacts recovered from both later Afri can Stone Age sites and much later Meso lithic contexts in Europe 34 40 Even Without inferring the use of archery equipment however it is reasonable to assume that the introduction of more ef fective hunting weapons would have sub stantially increased the efficiency and pro ductivity of hunting activities and therefore the overall productivity of the food resources available to the human Mellars groups 31 34 The second and poten tially equally important suggestion Which has been mooted by Deacon 29 31 is that the dense accumulations of burnt plant remains in the Howiesons Poort levels at Klasies River together With identifiable remains of root crops such as Watsom39a in the later MSA levels at the Strathalan B site further to the north could reflect either the increased use of these particular plant resources or even the deliberate burning of the local fynbos vegetation Which has been shown to in crease the annual productivity of these root crops by between five and tenfold 31 For the present the latter suggestion remains speculative but if this were to be supported by further research one could see this effectively as an early form of plant food management strategies poten tially analogous to those used in later Mesolithic and early agricultural commu nities or in the recently reported 26000 yearold processing of seed remains from the Ohalo 11 site in Israel 52 A third suggestion advanced by Henshilwood 35 36 is that the Still Bay levels at Blombos cave may provide evidence for the first Fig 5 Fragments of red ochre incised with a complex geometrical design A D and a series of deliberately perforated shells of Nassarius krauss ianus E from the MSA levels of the Blombos Cave South Africa dated to ca 75000 BP 38 39 A D reproduced with permission from Hen shilwood et al 38 Copyright 2002 AAAS E re produced with permission from Henshilwood etal 104 Copyright 2004 AAAS PNAS systematic exploitation of marine fish and perhaps sea birds as parts of the human food supply Finally Deacon Ambrose and others 31 35 42 43 have argued that the largescale movements of high quality stone and imported shell orna ments recorded from these sites may reflect increased trading and exchange networks between adjacent human groups Which could have acted as a further criti cal mechanism to ensure regular access and distribution of essential food supplies especially during seasonal or other epi sodes of food scarcity Clearly all of these possibilities Will require further analysis and testing in the course of future research But the implica tion seems clear that many of the behav ioral innovations reflected in the southern African archaeological records between ca 80000 and 60000 BP could have led to a substantial increase in the carrying capacity of the environment for human populations and accordingly to a major expansion in human population numbers and densities Even allowing for the im precisions in current DNA dating esti mates the apparent coincidence between these major behavioral changes and the estimated timing of the population expan sions reflected strongly in both the mtDNA mismatch and lineageanalysis data seems hard to ignore It should be emphasized that there is no necessary im plication that population numbers in Af rica as a Whole increased dramatically at this time Indeed it could be that total population numbers in Africa decreased significantly at this time owing to the on set of extremely dry conditions in many parts of Africa between ca 60000 and 30000 BP 31 44 The point is simply that increased levels of technological effi ciency and economic productivity in one small region of Africa could have allowed a rapid expansion of these populations to other regions and an associated competi tive replacement or absorption of the earlier technologically less advanced populations in these regions 2 16 23 53 54 Any attempt to define the precise point of origin of these behavioral innovations and the associated demographic expansion event immediately encounters the relative sparsity of well documented archaeologi cal sites in many regions of subSaharan Africa especially in the more central and eastern areas of Africa Which are poten tially crucial to the current debates over modern human origins 31 34 Clearly we must be aware of falling into the obvi ous trap of assuming these developments must have occurred initially Within South Africa simply because this area is Where the relevant archaeological evidence is at present most fully investigated and best documented ie the drunk looking for June20 2006 I vo103 I no25 I 9383 keys under the street lamp syndromel In this context it should be recalled that industries conforming closely to the South African Howiesons Poort variations are well represented over large areas of cen tral and southern Africa to the south of the Zambezi and apparently extending northwards into parts of East Africa such as at the site of Mumba in Tanzania 34 41 and the recently excavated site of Norikiushan in Kenya S Ambrose per sonal communication gt4000 km to the north of the South African sites The main problem at present lies in the accu rate dating of these sites in relation to the South African localities 34 On present evidence it is impossible to exclude the possibility that the Howiesons Poort tech nologies or indeed those of the preceding Still Bay could have emerged in certain parts of say eastern or central Africa before they subsequently appeared in the South African sites In this case the de velopments in South Africa could be seen more as a reflection of events in other parts of Africa than their initial point of origin But in any event the sheer scale of the geographical distribution of the Howiesons Poortlike technologies could be seen as a further potential reflection of a major episode of population dispersal within subSaharan Africa centered broadly within the time range from ca 70000 to 55000 BP 31 34 35 It is equally tempting to suggest that it was precisely this new integrated complex of socalled modern behavioral features embodied in the Howiesons Poort and preceding Still Bay technologies that led directly to the widespread geographical expansion of the southern African popula tions not only to other areas of Africa as reflected in the widespread dispersal of the L2 and L3 mitochondrial lineages see Fig 2 but also to the adjacent areas of Asia and Europe sometime after 70000 BP 1 2 8 16 17 42 Fig 6Jr The Mechanisms of Behavioral Change The pivotal question of course is what caused these radical changes in the tech nology economy and social patterns of African groups 80000 70000 BP Here we have two fairly stark alternatives First we could suggest as Klein 44 55 has done that the emergence of distinc tively modern patterns of culture and technology was due to a sudden change in the cognitive capacities of the populations involved entailing some form of neuro TNote that claims for a reemergence of MSAlike technol ogies after the Howiesons Poort industries in South Africa 31 are not directly relevant to this model because it is likely that by this time ca 50000 55000 BP the initial dispersal from Africa had already taken place 8 9 28 Exactly what these postHowiesons Poort MSA industries represent remains to be clarified 9384 150000 200000 BP Initial emergence ofanatomically and genetically modern populations in Africa 110000 90000 BP Temporary dispersal ofanatomically modern populations with Middle Palaeolithic technology from Africa to southwest Asia associated with clear symbolic expression l 80000e70000 BP Rapid climatic and environmental changes in Africa l 80000 70000 BP Major technological economic and social changes in south and east Africa l 70000 60000 BP Major population expansion in Africa from small source area ca60000 BP Dispersal of modern populations from Africa to Eurasia Fig 6 Summary of the model proposed here for modern human origins and dispersal from Africa logical mutation although according to the model advanced here at 80000 BF and not at ca 40000 50000 BP as Klein himself has suggested Or alterna tively and more prosaically we could look for an interpretation in terms of some major shift in the adaptive and se lective pressures to which the human populations were subjected perhaps pre cipitated by some major episode of cli matic and environmental change In this context the obvious candidate would be the sharp oscillations between wetter and drier climatic conditions that marked the transition from oxygen isotope stage 5 to stage 4 as reflected in the deepsea core and icecore climatic records 56 In sub Saharan Africa there is evidence that this transition resulted in changes in annual rainfall by up to 50 57 To groups oc cupying the more arid regions of Africa especially around the margins of the Kalahari and Sahara deserts the impact of these climatic changes on all aspects of human economic technological and so cial adaptations could have been dramatic as Deacon Ambrose and others 29 31 42 43 have emphasized A further poten tially significant factor could have been the climatic and associated environmental effects of the Mount Toba volcanic su pereruption in Sumatra dated to 73000 BP as Ambrose 58 has argued very effectively but see Oppenheimer 59 and GathorneHardy amp Harcourt Smith 60 for an opposing view It would in short be possible to see changes wwwpnasorgcgidoi101073pnas0510792103 in human technology subsistence settle ment patterns and associated patterns of social and even symbolic communication as a fairly direct response to the new envi ronmental challenges that emerged at this time 53 54 61 62 Significantly all these major environmental changes fall within the time range of ca 80000 70000 BP precisely the time when the archaeo logical evidence indicates that technologi cal and other behavioral changes were occurring most rapidly Human Cognitive Evolution Even if we accept that the pattern of be havioral changes in southern Africa can be explained more parsimoniously in terms of adaptive environmental processes than by changes in human cognitive ca pacities we cannot escape the evidence for significant changes in at least some aspects of human cognitive behavior asso ciated broadly with the emergence of our own species 63 68 One aspect of the current evidence that is potentially highly informative in this context lies in the evi dence for a precocious and apparently shortlived expansion of anatomically modern populations from northern Africa into the immediately adjacent areas of southwest Asia at 110000 90000 BF 1 69 72 This expansion is best re flected in the large samples of typically if relatively robust and variable anatomi cally modern skeletal remains from the two sites of Skhul and Oafzeh in northern Israel Fig 3 Three features of these finds are especially significant The first is that at least two of the skeletons in these sites occurred in the form of clearly cere monial or ritualistic burials associated with seemingly unmistakably intentional grave offerings a large deer antler lying directly on top of one of the Oafzeh skel etons and a complete boar s jaw said to be clasped in the arms of one of the burials at Skhul 72 75 see Fig 7 Sec ondly that at least in the case of the Oafzeh burials the remains were associ ated with a number of deliberately perfo rated seashell ornaments together with large quantities of used and apparently heattreated fragments of red ochre al most certainly used as coloring pigments 76 77 And thirdly that despite these clearly symbolic aspects of the archaeo logical material the stone tool assem blages found in association with both the Skhul and Oafzeh remains were of typi cally Middle Palaeolithic or MSA in form without any trace of the distinctively mod ern or Upper Palaeolithic technological features recorded at the later African MSA sites of Klasies River Blombos and elsewhere 71 72 The clear implication of these finds is that whilst the human populations repre sented at Skhul and Oafzeh were essen Mellars Fig 7 skeleton at the Qafzeh Cave Israel accompanied by a large deer antler and dated to ca 90000 100000 BP 73 74 Burial of an anatomically modern human tially modern in both anatomical terms and in terms of clearly symbolic behav ioral patterns the levels of technology associated with these populations were still of strictly archaic Middle Palaeolithic form 71 72 Viewed in these terms it is equally interesting that the early incursion of these anatomically modern populations into southwest Asia seems to have been a very localized and shortlived event ap parently confined to this southwest Asian region and followed by a reestablishment of the earlier Neanderthal populations within these regions from at least 70000 BP onwards as reflected by the typically Neanderthal remains recovered from the later Mousterian levels at the Kebara cave Tabun Amud and Shanidar 1 71 72 78 In other words it would seem that whatever the intellectual and symbolic capacities of these early anatomically modern populations their levels of tech nological and socioeconomic organization were not sufficient to withstand competi tion from the longestablished Neander thal populations of Eurasia during the later and colder stages of the Middle Palaeolithic sequence 71 72 78 Mosaic Evolution The obvious and seemingly inescapable conclusion is that the patterns of cultural and technological development associated with the evolution of fully modern popula tions were strongly mosaic in character with the emergence of several explicitly symbolic aspects of culture apparently preceding any major change in either the stonetool or bonetool components of the associated technologies 40 In Africa itself there may be further evidence for this symbolic behavior in the indications of apparently ritualistic treatment of the Mellars two early anatomically modern skulls re cently discovered at Herto in Ethiopia dated to w 160000 BP and again associ ated with characteristically archaic MSA stone tool technology 6 79 If so what if anything might this evi dence tell us tell us about the patterns of human cognitive and neurological evolu tion associated with the emergence of fully anatomically and genetically modern populations If explicit symbolism is ac cepted as an index of essentially modern cognitive capacities and with associated patterns of essentially modern complex language as most archaeologists and palaeoanthropologists tend to assume 30 63 66 68 80 87 then these capacities were clearly in place by at least 100000 150000 BP and could well have emerged in direct association with the evolution of anatomically and genetically modern pop ulations at this time Viewed in these terms the subsequent elaboration of these symbolic patterns and the emergence of a range of new technological economic and social patterns reflected in the archaeo logical evidence from Blombos Klasies River and elsewhere could be seen sim ply as a gradual working out of these new cognitive capacities under the stimulus of various kinds of environmental demo graphic or social pressures in much the same way as that reflected in the later emergence of fully agricultural communi ties 53 54 61 68 88 The alternative of course would be to visualize the trajectory of human cog nitive evolution as an inherently more complex process involving potentially a series of successive and cumulative changes in brain capacities dependent on a succession of genetic mutations affecting various aspects of brain func tion and organization 63 67 89 90 Recent studies of the Microcephalin and FOXP2 genes 63 64 have now effec tively demonstrated the possibility of such mutations potentially at various points since the emergence of geneti cally modern humans Clearly if there had been a further genetic mutation in volving cognitive capacities 80000 BP this could provide a further poten tial explanation for the emergence of significantly new patterns of technology social organization and symbolic expres sion reflected in the archaeological evi dence from the African sites The problem of adequately testing these speculations against hard archaeological data is of course one of the notorious dilemmas in studies of human cognitive evolution epitomized by Renfrew s 91 notion of the Sapient paradox In other words how do we formulate plausible archaeological tests for the emergence of new behavioral capacities as opposed to the gradual elaboration and increasing complexity of technological and other be havioral patterns for which the necessary cognitive potentials had already long ex isted 68 82 84 92 One thing however is certain If the evolutionary trajectories of the Eurasian Neanderthals and the Af rican ancestors of modern populations had been separate over a span of at least 300000 years as all of the current genetic and skeletal evidence suggests 1 12 78 93 then the possibility of some signifi cant changes in human neurological and cognitive capacities over this time range can in no way be ruled out Even if the cognition of Neanderthals and other archaic populations was not inferior to that of modern humans it could have been significantly different 66 67 80 83 The Out of Africa Diaspora The final and most controversial issue at present is exactly when and how these anatomically and genetically modern pop ulations first spread from Africa to other parts of Asia and Europe Here there are two main possibilities The first is that the initial expansion occurred via North Af rica and the Nile valley with subsequent dispersals to both the west into Europe and to the east into Asia 69 71 78 94 95 The second is that the initial dispersal was from Ethiopia across the mouth of the Red Sea and then either northward through Arabia or eastward along the south Asian coastline to Australasia the socalled southern or coastal route 28 69 70 96 The strongest evidence at present for the second hypothesis is pro vided by the mtDNA lineageanalysis patterns These point strongly to the con clusion that there was only a single suc cessful dispersal event out of Africa represented exclusively by members of the L3 lineage and probably carried by a rela tively small number of at most a few hun dred colonists 2 8 28 97 This lineage rapidly diversified into the derivative M N and R lineages which are particularly well represented in modern Asian popula tions and which are estimated to have ar rived and diversified further in southern Asia by at least 50000 BP and possibly as early as 65000 BP in Malaysia and the Andaman islands 8 9 28 97 A similar conclusion has been drawn from recent studies of the Y chromosome evidence 97 This evidence would also conform well with the clear peak in the mtDNA distributions of Asian populations dated broadly to 60000 BP 23 25 Fig 1 This model of course would mean that the subsequent dispersals of anatomically and behaviorally modern populations into southwest Asia and Europe must have reached these areas substantially later via western or central Asia 2 8 97 PNAS June202006 vol103 no 25 9385 main problem posed by this 7100 But clearly the spotlight is na o t resent hes in the sparsity of now directed stro o uth well documented and well dated archaer Asia to Se m irect evidenz e for ologrcal evrdence for the early modem this hypothetical early dlspelsal ute lonizatro fASIa prior to ca 01 102 u re drscoverie In th P w en we know th t early mitochondrial and Y hrom colonists had reached parts fnorthe re ch and above all archaeology are d m Australi best I resented a lted t Vide the crucial tests for y the archaeological and skeletal finds this hypothesis of the origins and dis from Lake Mungo in New South Wales persal of our own species 103 1 m2 H1210 Trm x Soc mm E 351 p mm mm rm x Soc mm E 359 Gmcl 1997 m Symbol Apccn rennin m not A uopol i w E H mus A mus Amqu 71 9336 l vavvpnaxovggldolWO1073pna0510792103 MeHav


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