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by: Bernhard Collier


Marketplace > University of Texas at Austin > Finance > FIN 354 > MONEY BANKING AND ECON CONDS
Bernhard Collier
GPA 3.64

Lawrence Turner

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Lawrence Turner
Class Notes
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This 67 page Class Notes was uploaded by Bernhard Collier on Sunday September 6, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to FIN 354 at University of Texas at Austin taught by Lawrence Turner in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 43 views. For similar materials see /class/181406/fin-354-university-of-texas-at-austin in Finance at University of Texas at Austin.




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Date Created: 09/06/15
How to Succeed in FIN354 First off this is a fun class and Professor Turner is a great teacher who cares about his students success and that alone should make you want to come to class If that s not enough for you then you should come because it is a real help for the exams especially if this is your first nance class There are four main things you can do to do well and coming to class is de nitely one of them Professor Turner is very good about giving in class examples and several test questions on each test will come from lecture it would be silly to have these make or break your grade Follow his outlines and take notes in class you will be glad you did The textbook should only be used as a supplement if you are confused Also don t be afraid to ask questions often times Professor Turner will revisit topics that people are confused with in class but you have to let him know Also if he feels the grades are low or a question was too controversial he will curve but don t rest on this because there will be students who will get those hard questions right every time lowering the chances of a curve My next bit of advice would be don t blow off the first couple of tests because the material gets harder and you want to lock in some solid grades in the beginning The test on derivativesI think it s the 3rd test will most likely be the hardest especially if you have never seen the material in another finance class Remember if you are happy with your grade before the final you don t have to take it SO biggest points 1 Come to class 2 Take Notes use book as supplement 3 ASK QUESTIONS 4 Do well on the first couple of tests GOOD LUCK BB Fall 2005 Finance 354 This is a good class To get anA you do not need to read every page of the book The best way to do well in this class is to go to lecture A lot of the material on the tests is straight from and only from the lectures In terms of studying for the tests I found it most useful to go through my notes and review anything that we went over with what the book had on the same topic The only time I used the book was to go over the information that we reviewed in class so again it is best to attend lectures PB Fall 2005 cont Finance 354 Word of Wisdom BB Fall 2006 PPl In order to succeed in Finance 354 you must go to class Professor Turner is a great teacher who really cares about his students If you take the time to get to know him he is full of interesting stories and advice For these reasons alone you should want to attend lecture However if this doesn t motivate you go to class because the majority of the test comes directly from his lectures Also take good notes because he doesn t include everything on his slides The material he lectures over will be tested For the test study your notes If you are completely confused on a topic you can refer to the book or even better ask Turner Because there are several tests each test doesn t cover too much materialso know everything in your notes Furthermore there are four tests and if you do well enough on the first four you will not have to take the final So don t slack off on one test because you will regret it later Lastly go to the review sessions Other students tend to have the same questions as you and they can be very beneficial because you hear the important stuff one last time Basically 1 GO TO CLASS 2 GO TO CLASS 3 GO TO CLASS 40 TAKE GOOD NOTES AND STUDY THEM Keys to Succeeding in Finance 354 PK Fall 2006 There are a few keys to succeeding in Finance 354 First pay really good attention in class It might sound like stating the obvious but there are times when I spaced out and didn t hear something subtle that actually ended up on the test It is a good idea to compare notes with someone else s because even if you pay good attention chances are you are going to miss something that will end up on the test Second supplement the notes you take in class with reading from the book The book has a lot of extra things that you will not need to know but it is definitely a good idea to read the parts that are covered in lecture Oftentimes the book s perspective helps solidify a concept covered in class Third do not underestimate the tests After the first test things become much more difficult The concepts covered during lecture can sometimes sound simple but some of the more tricky test questions can twist a simple concept into something more difficult This is why I recommend looking over the book because it will sometimes show you a different perspective than the one you heard during lecture If you do all this you should be good for an A Lecture 1 BUSINESS CYCLES There is more or less a pattern of expansion recovery and contraction recession in economic activity around the path of trend growth At cyclical peak economic activity is high relative to trend At cyclical trough Over time what causes the trend line to change More resources Factors not fully employed all the time What is in ation Why worry about in ation instead of unempmt l Lecture 2 MARKETS What are they What makes a good market Can we name some bad markets FINANCIAL MARKETS amp INSTITUTIONS I Financial markets exist to aid in the most efficient allocation of capital II Financial Institutions facilitate this allocation of capital The players in the market are households businesses and governments How they play and what motivates them to play is critical to the well being of economies TYPES OF MARKETS Primary New fund raising Secondary Trading There are specialized markets for fund raising and trading The most important of these are Money Markets Maturities lt 1 yr Capital Markets Maturities gt 1 yr Lecture 3 FLOW OF FUNDS Who are the players Households Businesses Governments Rest of the World All act at one point in time or another as borrowers and providers Funds arrive directly or indirectly What is the role of Financial Intermediaries To lower transaction costs To lower risk To provide better market information Intermediaries also incur risks IR risk FX risk Credit or default risk What about Foreign Mkts amp Intermediaries Provide for borrowing or investing abroad Important source of diversification Lecture 4 What is an interest rate Compensation for lending or giving up one s abilitiy to spend today Can be a measuring guideline governing corportate investing Why do we care about interest rates They in uence the allocation of capital They impact the economy and decision making How do we look at interest rates and time Concept of Present Value Present value allows you to place a value on future funds What might 10 today be worth 10 years from now The Present Value calculation converts cash ows received in the future to a value assuming receipt today the PRESENT How much is 3000 received in two years worth today if the interest rate is 4 How much is 2000 next year and 3000 the year after worth today if the interest rate is 5 Where do you hear the concept of Present Value applied quite often US Savings Bonds Winning the lottery Back to our first example PV of 3000 received in 2 years 4 If the ir is 2is PV higher or lower If the ir is 6 is PV higher or lower Why Lecture 5 WHAT DETERMINES THE LEVEL OF UR AT ANY GIVEN POINT IN TIME The supply and demand of loanable funds Same concept as the supply and demand of goods and services you studied in Economics So there is a supply and demand curve here as well SUPPLY Households Businesses Governments Foreign investors DEMAND Households Businesses Governments Foreign What might the supply and demand curve look like What might cause the curves to shift SUPPLY IR Wealth Risk Near term spending needs Monetary Expansion Economic Conditions DEMAND Current utility Economic conditions Restrictiveness of nonprice conditions Lecture 6 What are the factors that can affect the ir for an individual security Begin with the real interest rate Direct correlation between in ation amp ir US Treasuries become the benchmark What factors in uence nominal ir Default risk Liquidity risk Covenants putscalls Terrn to Maturity Ubiased Expectations Theory Liquidity Premium Theory Market Segmentation Theory Lecture 7 What does the yield curve tell us What exacth are bonds Debt instruments SecuredUnsecured Coupon or Zero PV Face Value Par PVgt Face Value Premium PV lt Face Value Discount These re ect the price of bonds How does that relate to Yield Price and yield are inversely related Why Duration measure of the weighted average time to maturity That is it takes into account the timing of payments Any received before maturity Will result in a shorter duration that the maturity date Higher interest rates shorten duration Why Lecture 8 THE FEDERAL RESERVE SYSTEM Objectives Moderate longterm ir Maintain high level of employment Stable prices Economic growth It s duties Conduct monetary policy Superviseregulate depository institutions Maintain stability of financial system Provide payments services for governments Also check clearing amp wire transfers Independent of Executive Branch Oversight by Congress ChairmanVice Chair appointed by President 12 Regional Banks 7 Member Board of Governors 5 of Regional Bank Presidents Board of Governors comprise the Federal Open Market Committee FOMC The objectives shown above are their job What is important is how they do it Lecture 9 MONETARY POLICY What is it and how does it affect us In essence it is an attempt to in uence the amount of reserves that remain in the banking system which in turn affects ir and the availability of credit which ultimately affects the levels of employment output and prices and in ation In other words the money supply MONETARY POLICY TOOLS Open Market Operations Discount Rate Reserve Requirements The FOMC impacts the economy thru its practice of buying and selling government securities in the open market In so doing they are either adding money expanding to the existing supply or taking it out contracting Discount rate Rate Fed Charges bank to borrow from it In reality is only used as a signal to the market as to which way the Fed wants to see rates go The discount rate was lowered 11 time in 2001 in an attempt to stimulate the economy Bank reserves Required currently 10 Excess How do these tools help expand the money supply How do these tools help contract the money supply Definitions of the money supply Base M1 M2 The FED selects a target and uses Monetary Policy to get to that target Most popular targets Money Supply Interest Rate Lecture 10 MONEY MARKETS Short term debt instruments lt 1 year Active secondary market very liquid Capital markets gt 1 year Characteristics of money market instruments Large usually 1 mil Low default risk Maturity of 1 year or less Corporates and governments usually sell money market instruments to meet short term needs 20 TREASURY BILLS Default risk free Benchmark for other securities pricing Refinancing debtgovt deficittax timing Sold at auction weekly Shortest maturity is 13 weeks Sold at a discount Suppose you buy a 26 week Tbill for 9500 whose face value is 10000 What is the discount yield i 10000950010000 X 360182 989 21 FEDERAL FUNDS Primarily overnight loans between banks One of the uses of their excess reserves FED sets the lending rate For all practical purposes are just lending cash between two banks REPURCHASE AGREEMENTS REPOS Actual sale of securities between two parties with agreement to repurchase at set date and price ls collaterized most often with govt securities Normally 114 days but can go 90 More secure than Fed Funds so has lower yield often as much as 25 basis points 22 Lecture 11 COlVllVlERCIAL PAPER CP An unsecured promissory note issued by corporations Corporates With good credit can often borrow cheaper in the cp mkt than from their banks see chart on page 135 comparing cp rates to prime rate Normally held to maturity up to 270 days Lower rated corporates can issue cp backed by LOC s or bank lines of credit Expensive by effective better than issuing long term if improving credit Purchasers get internal approval on a credit and return again again Cp usually sold thru dealers like Goldman Sachs agree to repurchase in event of default 23 Rates are quoted on a discount basis NEGOTIABLE CD s Bank issued promissory notes Specific maturity and rate Trade in secondary market at negotiated price Normal maturities are 14360 days Unsecured issuance so yield is higher BANKERS ACCEPTANCES A draft for payment backing a LOC issued against imported goods Importer gets LOC guaranteeing payment to exporter BA allows them to draw down money before delivery Importer then reimburses the bank There is a secondary market for BA s 24 MONEY MARKET PARTICIPANTS Issuer Investor Tbills Treasury FedBanksCor Fed Funds Banks Banks Repos FedBanks FedBanksCor Cp BanksCorps CorpsFI s Neg CD Banks FI sCorps BA s Banks BanksCorps Where are there secondary markets Where are yields the highestlowest Who are the important FI s 25 Summary Money markets are important to The F ed 7 for controlling the money supply Banks 7 to meet reserve requirement and as a place to use excess reserves BrokerDealers 7 Keep the market moving Corporations source of short term funding and as a place to invest short term cash Other F s 7 A place to maintain liquidity 26 INTERNATIONAL MONEY MARKETS Foreigners are major investors in Treasuries Diversification and default free Keep deposits in foreign countries to facilitate eXhange into LIBOR is major lending rate Now major rate measurement for all types of loans not just foreign Borrowing is usually quoted as a spread over LIBOR might be 350 30 or 3 depending on the risk associated with the borrower 27 Lecture 12 THE BOND MARKET Bonds are capital market instruments With maturities of greater than one year Typically fixed income offering interest a set time periods and the return of principal at maturity A bond With a coupon of 8 would normally pay interest every six months 4 at a time Treasury notes gtlltlO years Treasury bonds gt10 lt31 years They comprise about 26 of total bond market securities Both pay semiannual interest and are sold at auctionbut are sold at par unlike Tbills Treasury also issues in ation adjusted bonds called TIPS 28 They also sell STRIPS where each coupon payment is sold separately The secondary market in Treasury issues is huge If a bond is sold between coupon payments the seller must pay the buyer the accrued interestor discount the price to account for it MUNICIPAL BONDS Debt instruments issued by state and local governments About 17 of all bonds os Interest not taxed by feds or state investor lives in for bonds issued in that state Tax exemption lowers cost of bonds issuance for the governments because investors take a lower yield General obligation backed by taxing power Revenue bonds backed by revenue of a project General taX receipts cannot be used to pay off a revenue bond thus is riskier 29 Industrial development bonds normally for job creation How are municipal bonds sold Underwrittenbest effortsnegotiated basis Secondary market very thin CORPORATE BONDS Comprise about 57 of os bonds Normally issued to fund long term obligations Rating agency comments are critical to price Debentures no collateral Subordinated debentures junior in status Convertible bonds debt that converts to equity at some point in time if certain things occur Callable bonds Sinking funds Moody sS amp P Fitch 30 Who are buyers of the various types of bonds Which bonds likely carm the highest and lowest yields INTERNATIONAL BOND MARKETS Eurobonds Sold outside the country of the currency in which they are issued Could be dollar denominated bonds sold in Japan Foreign bonds Bonds issued outside the home country but denominated in the host country currency Samurai bonds are dollar denominated bonds issued by Japanese borrowers in the US Brady bonds bonds substituted in a restructuring of a less developed country s debt Longer term and lower rates Backed by the US Treasury Sovereign bonds specific country issued 31 Lecture 13 MORTGAGES Loans to purchase real property such as a home land or building 75 of mortgages are for single family dwellings Characteristics of a mortgage Size term ir collateral Qualifications fairly standard income to value ratio can you make the payments Down payment reduces default risk Conventional vs Insured Maturity 1530 yr balloon payment IR Fixed vs ARM Greenspan ARM quotes Amortization schedule Refinancing depending upon rate cycle 32 Originate with Fl s most of whom do not continue to carry them on their balance sheet Sold off in secondary market thru securitization Allows F1 to enhance their liquidity and reduce ir and credit risk What is securitization and how does it work Why securitize Mortgage market very cyclical Govt subsidies are key to role housing plays in the robustness of the economy Home building may suffer as rates go up 33 Lecture 14 STOCK MARKETS What is stock anyway Equityownership How does one make a return from stock ownership CommonPreferred Dividends Limited liability of ownership IPO s Seasoned offerings Primary vs secondary markets 34 SECRegistrationRed Herring Shelf registration The Markets NYSENASDAQAMEX How does trading occur on each market Indices DOW S amp P 500 Wilshire 5000 What causes prices to change on the Market Efficient market theory Random walk 35 Lecture 15 FOREIGN EXCHANGE Global trade requires that we exchange currencies The foreign exchange rate is the ratio of one currency to another How yen equal one dollar Initially had fixed currency rates And Gold Eventually oating Now the Euro Can use spot or forward markets to make exchange rate more predictable What causes exchange rate differentials between countries 36 Economic flows between countries are measured by the balance of payments Current Account Merchandise trade balance SerVice sector Unilateral transfers Capital Account Direct investrnent Portfolio investment 37 Lecture 16 DERIVATIVES Financial instruments tailored to change where risk lies Swaps caps floors etc are examples of these Most deal with the ir or credit markets Spot contracts discussed in FX context Is a given price today a guarantee When investing using spot contracts you are investing looking for appreciation Forwards are contracts to buy something at a given price in the future at a price determined today Hedging future price change by locking in today Example Airlines buying fuel for their eets Locking in a mortgage rate could involve a forward contract 38 Futures contracts are like forward buy are traded on a formal exchange No default risk versus total with forwards Futures are revalued every day Futures are generally in 3 areas ir currency index Can hold contracts to maturity or trade most liquidate before maturitylf hold to maturity you take possession of the underlying asset So in each of these markets you are betting on change Options are a contract giving you the right but not the obligation to buy or sell something within a specific period of time Call options give you the right to buy call away from the sellera security at a predetermined price This is the exercise or strike price Selling an option you write a call option 39 Put option You can buy stock options on many of the major companies in the world on the NYSE or NASD Cheap way to invest What happened to markets after 911 What would have happened to your options You can purchase indices made up of the major stocks Dow S amp P 500 etc You can use these to hedge as a derivative other stocks you own SWAPS the most used derivative great fun Two parties agree to swap cash flows some time in the future based upon some underlying asset Terrific tool for companies to manage ir risk currency risk and credit risk Sold bond last year 100 mil lOyr 7 coupon Now I think rates are going to trend down What can I do about it now 40 Nothing changes With the underlying assets only the cash ows tied to them Currency swaps evening out exposure Swap markets Counterparty risk Caps ceilings limit the upside exposure Floors protect the bottom Collars give up a little to establish a range of risk 41 Lecture 1 7 COlVllVlERCIAL BANKS Serve as principal channel for government monetary policy Loans are assetsDeposits are liabilities How then do banks make a profit when their chief assets and liabilities are just pieces of paper ASSETS Loans A promise to repay Approx 60 of assets Loans to Whom Business 25 of total Revolving lines of credit Seasonal inventory Floor plans Fixed collateralized Real Estate 46 of total Commercial and residential 42 Mortgagesequity lines of credit Consumer credit 16 International Investments Biggest problems Default Fixed rate lending Mismatch of maturities Keys to successful asset management Lend to good customers Invest in low risk securities Diversify THERE IS A FINE LINE BETWEEN PROFITABILITY AND SAFETY 43 LIABILITIES Why are deposits liabilities Deposits represent aout 23 of total bank funding Generally checking savings and CD s The remainder of funding comes from direct bond issuance discount window and fed funds borrowings Liability characteristics Shorter term and more liquid than assets Transitory Maj or problems Maturity mismatches IR risk 44 BANK E UITY Regulators mandate a minimum level of equitycapital to assets Today this number is about 9 So banks are really highly levered Capital is primarily common stock and retained earnings It also includes reserves for losses Serves as a cushion against a drop in assets What happens when liabilities exceed assets Japan banking crisis What happens in a recession to bank business Banks frequently have lots of business off their balance sheets Swaps derivative contracts some loan commitments foreign exchange contracts etc Why would they do this 45 Commercial bank companies have been growing because of the change in the law allowing branching This has brought on major mergeracquisition actiVity More income coming from noninterestfee based business Commercial banking International US banks going abroad Less regulation New business Follow their customers Risks are higher As are returns Credit Political Currency Banking around the World J apanChinaEuro The Regulators 46 Lecture 18 THRIFTS Historically small institutions serving specialized needs of local groups Savings assoc formerly S amp L s population has declined by 75 over last 20 years Now about 1200 Traditionally made long term fixed rate mortgages to indiViduals funded by short term deposits Problems of the 1970 s Regulation Q Disintermediation GarnSt Germain Act of 1982 NOWMMDA Oil collapse Regulators failed New regulators Assets Mortgages and mortg Backed sec 73 Comm Loans 3 What happens in an economic downturn 47 Thrift liabilities Over 60 is small deposits Fed Home Loan Bank borrowings 22 Equity capital 82 What happens in an economic downturn SAVINGS BANKS Essentially S amp L or Savings Assoc in the NE Less than 400 exist Balance sheets similar to Savings Assoc except that are more highly capitalized CREDIT UNIONS Evolved from employer owned institutions Are now nonprofits owned by their depositors Customers must have a common bond Consumer loans make up 37 of assets with mortgages at 29 Portfolio is more liquid and has lower default risk than that of banks and SA s 48 Credit Union Liabilities Member deposits 89 Primarily savings CD s and NOW accts Equity capital is in excess of 9 Should be able to offer better rates to customers and make a higher ROA because of taX status REGULATION OF THRIFTS Office of Thrift Supervision part of Treasury FDIC provides insurance State assoc are regulated by states Natl Credit Union Admin Board charters and Insures credit unions Will these institutions exist 10 years from now 49 Lecture 19 INSURANCE COMPANIES Life insurance allows individual to protect themselves and their benefactors against the loss of income from death Insures pool risks why What happens if they are wrong Types of life insurance Ordinary life Term life Whole life Endowment life Variable life Universal life Group life Credit life Annuities 50 GIC s Accident and Health What do the balance sheets of Insurers look like Premiums are assets long lived Investments Policies are liabilities Regulation is at state level Business getting more competitive With brokerages banks entering Propertv amp Casualtv Fire Homeowners Commercial Auto Liability Premiums are assets claims are liabilities How do these companies ever lose money 51 Lecture20 SECURITIES FIRMS amp INVESTIVIENT BANKING Securities firms Investment banks Activities Investing Investment banking Market making Trading Cash management M amp A Others Research the scandals tying arrgmts SEC Spitzer 52 Lecture 21 FINANCE COlVlPANIES Lenders to consumers businesses mortgages How are they different om Banks 1 Sales Finance Institutions 2 Personal Credit 3 Business Credit Asset makeup Liabilities Subprime How do they fund their business How much equity capital do they employ Why do they even exist 53 Lecture 22 MUTUAL FUNDS amp HEDGE FUNDS Financial instruments that pool funds Various funds have different objectives Growth international bond etc Prospectuses How do you make money in a mutual fund How do mutual fund companies make money 40lk growth Regulation 54 Lecture 23 PENSION FUNDS Savings plans through which participants accumulate tax deferred savings for retirement Defined benefit plan Defined contribution plan Private plans 401 k IRA Keogh Public plans State amp local Federal 55 Lecture 24 REGULATION OF DEPOSITORY INSTITUTIONS Crucial Confidence in FI s key for domestic and International business Safety amp Soundness Monetary Policy Credit Allocation Consumer Protection Investor Protection Entry amp Chartering Reg of Product amp Geographic Expansion Prior to crash Glass Stegall Section 20 Glass Stegall repeal Geog Expansion Unitrestricted branchinginterstate branching FDIC FSLIC 56 Why did problems of the 1980 s arise Balance Sheet Regulations Focus on leverage Capital to assets ratios becorne triggers gt5 all the way to lt2 On balance sheet versus including off balance sheet What is history of foreign banks Social Security problems solutions 57 Lecture 25 FINANCIAL INSTITUTION RISKS Credit Bad investrnents Bad loans Firrn specific risk Systemic risk Liquidity High withdrawals run Interest Rate Mismatching Market Trading Off Balance Sheet draw downsderivatives FX Sovereign Technology Operational Insolvency 58 Lecture 26 MANAGING CREDIT RISK Have had bouts of bad credit 1980 s thriftsreal estate 1990 s junk bondscredit cards 2000 telecorn stech sovereign debt What is the best way for a F1 to lessen its risk of extending bad credit Real estate lending Ability to pay Collateral Ability to pay How long have you lived somewhere Job Credit history Other obligations Calculate ratios 59 Credit scoring also used Compares your situation to others like you If you look like those who have defaulted then assumption is you Will also Collateral Perfect security interestlien Default and they foreclose Nonmortgage consumer loans just based on ability to pay Small business lending looks at cash ow of the business Midmarket focuses more on the business itself cash owcustomer bookcyclicality In the end how predictable is the cash ow Credit analysis of the smaller firms is critical The 5 CS CharacterCapacityCollateralConditions Capital Haircuts Ratios 60 Large borrowers Tougher sell for the F1 More options Information is better Once you have decided to make the loan how do you decide what to charge for it In other words how do you make money at this game RAROC How much is a relationship worth 61 Lecture 27 MANAGING LIQUIDITY RISK I WANT MY MONEY NOW H Can purchase liquidity or use stored liquidity Runs and panics FDIC Fed Discount Window Life Insurance Co liquidity risk Property and Casulty liquidity risk Mutual Funds liquidity risk 62 Lecture 28 INTEREST RATE amp INSOLVENCY RISK Measuring the Risk Rate Sensitive Assets and Liabilities The Repricing Gap The Duration Model What is Capital and how is it Valued 63 Lecture 29 MANAGING DERIVATIVE RISKS Review Contracts Spot Forwards Futures Hedging with Contracts Accounting Rules Bank Regulations Options Swaps 64 Lecture 30 LOAN SALES AND SECURITIZATION What are Loan Sales Why did they come to be Participations Assignments What is the Market Who are the Players What drives the Market How is Loan Securitization different from Loan Sales 65


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