STATISTICS IN MARKET ANALYSIS
STATISTICS IN MARKET ANALYSIS SSC 306
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This 5 page Class Notes was uploaded by Ilene Kub on Sunday September 6, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to SSC 306 at University of Texas at Austin taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 112 views. For similar materials see /class/181534/ssc-306-university-of-texas-at-austin in Statistics Scientific Computat at University of Texas at Austin.
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Date Created: 09/06/15
Division of Statistics amp Scientific Computation SSC 306 Statistics in Market Analysis Unique 61510 Fall 2008 Instructor Teaching Assistant Dr Michael J Mahometa Matthew Grady michaelmahometasscutexasedu mattgrady8 l hotmailcom 4714245 Office Hours WCH 2104 Office Hours SZB 536 Wednesdays 3pm 5pm Tuesdays 100pm 230pm Or by appointment Thursdays 100pm 230pm Blackboard Bb httpcoursesutexasedu nnouncements course handouts lecture notes exam materials grades and discussion boards will be posted on the course blackboard site If you have a question about the course please check Bb before emailing the instructor or the TA Software Excel You need access to a statistical software package to complete your exams in this course We will be showing you how to use Excel to organize data and run basic statistical analyses If you do not have a copy of Excel you can purchase Microsoft Office from the Campus Computer Store Please note that you may use a different statistical package if you wish but the instructor and TA will not be easily able to respond to questions regarding other statistical packages Textbook Intro Stats by DeVeaux Velleman amp Bock Third Edition at the CoOp Course Description This course is designed to help you learn the introductory descriptive and inferential statistical procedures that are commonly used in research concerning health behavior and attitudes You will learn the assumptions underlying common statistical procedures the types of hypotheses that can be tested by these procedures and the inferences that can be drawn from their results After completing this course you will have developed a sufficient foundation from which you can begin to conduct your own analyses and critically evaluate the statistical analyses of others Classroom Expectations This course emphasizes an understanding of statistics that goes beyond memorization This is accomplished by engaging you in guided learning activities in the classroom purposeful group activities and regular interactions with real data Talking writing and thinking about statistics will help you learn it and most students find that being in class is very valuable We will also use class time to clarify the exam questions share pointers on working with the datasets and discuss strategies for making the exam process smoother and more productive for you Your active participation and attendance are essential and will be rewarded in the final course grade Graded Assignments l have two different goals for you in this class First I want you to learn to ask good questions when you look at data Second I want you to become familiar with the statistical mechanics of crunching numbers For this reason you will be graded on two kinds of assessments Takehome exams that give you time to ask and answer good questions and inclass quizzes that test your ability to apply the statistical techniques I encourage you to make use ofthe Undergraduate Writing Center to ensure that your takehome exams are clearly written Description of Assignments 1 N 00 Je Excel Quiz This quiz will assess your ability to perform some basic skills in Excel You will be given a short dataset and a helpsheet on how to sort and organize data calculate a mean and generate simple analyses The TA will be running two Excel workshops to help you prepare This quiz is preparation for your takehome exams but you can get help from your friends the TAs or myself Submit your quiz via the Bb link by the due date for credit Quizzes There will be seven planned quizzes throughout the semester You must be present for credit You will have about 25 minutes for each quiz You will know the quiz questions in advance they will be drawn from the textbook problems that have been identified as homework The quizzes take the place of graded homework You will be allowed to drop your lowest quiz grade If you are absent on the day of a quiz that counts as your drop TakeHome Exams There will be four takehome exams These exams require you to work with a set of data that I will post on the course website You will be asked to write up your results in the form of a statistical report following the guidelines given to you Takehome exams must be turned in typed and stapled on the day they are due On the day of the exam you will also complete inclass questions at the beginning of the period You may use your takehome exam to help you answer these questions If you are late to class you will not receive additional time on the inclass portion of the exam Final Exam The final exam is mandatory It will be multiplechoice and will cover material from the entire semester If you wish you may count your final exam twice by allowing it to substitute for a grade on a previous takehome exam What You Should Know about Absences D D If you miss a quiz you will not be able to retake it If you are absent on an exam day you cannot make up the inclass questions I will not accept late exams in the classroom Schedule an appointment with me and academic penalties will be assessed at that time If you have exceptional circumstances or a serious illness you must notify me before a quiz or exam is due so that we can discuss your options I am a reasonable person but my decision to accept late work is based heavily on the responsibility you demonstrate in addressing issues like these Academic Honesty Your takehome exams are given to you to complete independently without the assistance of your classmates If you have questions about an exam you are encouraged to seek assistance from the instructor or your TA during class or during office hours When it comes to exams you may not seek guidance from your peers and you may not compare your outcomes with your peers Students who violate these expectations can expect to receive a failing grade on the exam and will be reported to the Dean of Students office for academic dishonesty Upgrade Policy Frequently students want an opportunity at the end of the semester to raise grades that are close to a grade cutoff This course has a specific policy for awarding final grades If you wish you can earn the right to have your final grade determined by a more lenient cutoff The key point here is that this is done before you find yourself in a tight situation We call this our upgrade policy and it involves earning upgrade points over the course of the semester Upgrades are interesting statistical questions or exercises that can be answered with a little bit of effort Each upgrade is worth 2 points with a few exceptions If you earn a total of 10 upgrade points that s basically five upgrades then your final grade will be determined using the more lenient cutoffs shown below Upgrade opportunities will be posted on Bb Visit Bb to learn more about them The bottom line this is a good deal Don t pass it up Grading for this Course 30 points Excel Quiz 240 points Quizzes 7 40 points each drop lowest 100 points Exam 1 100 points Exam 2 100 points Exam 3 100 points Exam 4 100 points Final Exam Total Possible Points 770 points Points needed to earn an Cut Off Without Cut Off With Upgrades Upgrades A 90 693 668 B 80 616 591 C 70 539 514 D 60 462 437 Note Grade cutoffs are firm If you miss an A by one point that s unfortunate but it doesn t change the fact that you did not earn an A The upgrades give you an opportunity to make sure you ll have a cushion for your final grade Take care to earn the points you need for the grade you want Regrade Policy We will grade your quizzes and exams very carefully If you think there may be an error in the grading of your quiz or exam however you should bring it to our attention Regrades will only be considered if you submit your quiz or test within ONE WEEK of its return to you For quiz regrades see the TA For exam regrades bring your exam to your instructor during office hours or schedule an appointment Be prepared to discuss what problems you see with the grading Division of Statistics and Scienti c Computation SSC 304 305 306 Goals for Students in an Introductory Course What it Means to be Statistically Educated Students should believe and understand why Data beat anecdotes Variability is natural and is also predictable and quantifiable Random sampling allows results of surveys and experiments to be extended to the population from which the sample was taken Random assignment in comparative experiments allows cause and effect conclusions to be drawn Association is not causation Statistical significance does not necessarily imply practical importance especially for studies with large sample sizes Finding no statistically significant difference or relationship does not necessarily mean there is no difference or no relationship in the population especially for studies with small sample sizes Students should recognize Common sources of bias in surveys and experiments How to determine the population to which the results of statistical inference can be extended if any based on how the data were collected How to determine when a cause and effect inference can be drawn from an association based on how the data were collected eg the design ofthe study That words such as normal random and correlation have specific meanings in statistics that may differ from common usage Students should understand the parts of the process through which statistics works to answer questions namely How to obtain or generate data How to graph the data as a first step in analyzing data and how to know when that s enough to answer the question of interest How to interpret numerical summaries and graphical displays of data both to answer questions and to check conditions in order to use statistical procedures correctly How to make appropriate use of statistical inference How to communicate the results of a statistical analysis Students should understand the basic ideas of statistical inference The concept of a sampling distribution and how it applies to making statistical inferences based on samples of data including the idea of standard error The concept of statistical significance including significance levels and pvalues The concept of confidence interval including the interpretation of confidence level and margin of error Finally students should know ow to interpret statistical results in context How to critique news stories and journal articles that include statistical information including identifying what s missing in the presentation and the flaws in the studies or methods used to generate the information When to call for help from a statistician SSC 306 Course Outline Fall 2008 Class Lessons Date Event 1 Introduction to Course Wed 827 2 Graphing Quantitative Data Fri 829 Labor Day No Class Mon 91 3 Central Tendency amp Variability Wed 93 Excel Quiz 4 Categorical Data Fri 95 Quiz 1 5 Chisquare Mon 97 6 Chi Square Wed 99 7 Chi Square Fri 911 8 Experimental Design Mon 915 Quiz 2 9 Experimental design Wed 917 10 Exam 1 Fri 919 Exam 1 11 Experimental Design Mon 922 12 Correlation Wed 924 13 Correlation Fri 926 14 Regression Mon 929 Quiz 3 15 Regression Wed 101 16 Regression Fri103 17 Multiple Regression amp residuals Mon 106 18 Multiple Regression amp residuals Wed 108 19 Multiple Regression amp residuals Fri 1010 Quiz 4 20 Exam 2 Mon 1013 Exam 2 21 Normal Distribution Wed 1015 22 Zscores Fri 1017 23 Sampling Distribution 1 proportion Mon 1020 24 Sampling Distribution 1 proportion Wed 1022 25 Confidence Intervals 1 proportion Fri 1024 26 Hypothesis Testing 1 proportion Mon 1027 Quiz 5 27 HT amp CI 2 proportions Wed 1029 28 HT amp CI 2 proportions Fri 1031 29 HT amp CI 2 proportions Mon 113 30 Means overview Wed 115 31 Means Fri 117 Quiz 6 32 Exam 3 Mon 1110 Exam 3 Homework to Prepare for Quizzes Quiz1 CH 2 8 10 16 20 26 CH 4 6 8 24 32 CH 5 6 8 16 32 34 Quiz 2 CH 3 12 14 26 34 46 CH 26 4 8 24 3440 Qui23 CH 12 1220 22 2636 CH 13 8 10 38 44 52 CH 746 12 2640 Quiz4 CH 8 12 1428 30 3450 56 CH 9 12 1420 30 Quiz 5 CH 6 14 20 32 40 42 50 CH 18 6 16 28 38 CH 19 6 14 18 26 28 Qui26 CH 20 24 14 1620 2834 CH 21 8 1020 24 2632 CH 22 1020 28 3236