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# 2 INF 397

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This 69 page Class Notes was uploaded by Maryse Herman on Monday September 7, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to INF 397 at University of Texas at Austin taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 50 views. For similar materials see /class/181910/inf-397-university-of-texas-at-austin in Information Studies at University of Texas at Austin.

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Date Created: 09/07/15

INF 397C Introduction to Research in Information Studies Fall 2007 Randolph G Bias PhD CHFP rbiasischoolutexasedu cell 5126573924 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu There are three kinds of lies lies damned lies and statistics Benjamin Disraeli 1804 1881 British politician R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Statistics are like a bikini What they reveal is suggestive but what they conceal is vital Aaron Levenstein US politician R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu The statistics on sanity are that one out of every four Americans is suffering from some form of mental illness Think of your three best friends If they39re okay then it39s you Rita Mae Brown US author R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu First There are two components of this and any class Instruction and Evaluation Let s get the evaluation out of the way early Need one volunteer R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Research shows Finger length is a good and quick indicator of intelligence One volunteer measure your finger length in cm R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu HmmmmH Everyone in the class will get a grade of C But still we can continue with the instruction part of the course R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Oh so maybe Just THIS person isn t too smart OK everyone measure your right index ngeh From the top last crease in your hand to the tip of the finger Write down the length in cm R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Bettin Time I ll give everyone one penny You HAVE to wager it Turn it heads UP on your desk if you think that two people in this classroom share a birthday same month and day NOT necessarily year and heads DOWN if you think that no two people share a birthday R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 1o Questionnaire Please write down your answer to this question I approach this class with confidence and enthusiasm 1 Strongly disagree 2 Disagree 3 Neutral 4 Agree 5 Strongly agree R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 11 Please go to the board And complete the following columns Your first name and last initial Your birth month and day I don t care about the yean The length of your finger in cm The number of Major League Baseball games you ve seen in person Your answer the number to the questionnaire ques on One favorite hobby R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 12 Birthdays Who won and got to keep the penny I R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 13 Now an experiment I I will hand you each a slip of paper Please read it an do NOT let anyone else read it Women receive a pink slip of paper Men receive a green slip of paper After everyone has read hisher slip of paper and refolded it I ll show some letters of the alphabet one at a time for one second each After the last one I ll say Go and ask you to write down the letters in order Any questions R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 14 OK pencils down R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 15 UZOmgt cggtgn R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 16 Write down the letters In order R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 17 Answers UZOCDgt gt 39nc R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 18 Exp 1 Data All correct Not all correct Total Men Women Total R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 19 Who among you is a statistical wizard has experience conducting research R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 20 What are some things that you know I R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 21 Many ways to learn new things R G Bias Method of Authority trusted authority tells you something Method of Reason follow basic logical laws from philosophy Modeling Trialanderror Intuition Scientific Method belief on the basis of experience Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 22 After this class You ll know something about how scientists information scientists gather new information AND you ll be good at evaluating information others offer you R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 23 Three Paths to Belief 1 Na39I39ve acceptance 2 Cynicism 3 Critical skepticism R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 24 Critical Skepticism Rabbit pie story R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 25 What you ll learn Reliability Oh just measure it however Validity Finger length a good indicator of intelligence Sampling picking a representative sample and then generalizing to a larger population Why larger samples are better R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 26 What you ll learn cont d How to represent a group of numbers meaningfully Frequency distributions Measures of central tendency Measures of dispersion spread GraphsTables Operationalizing variables intelligence Probability Correlation R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 27 What you ll learn cont d Different measurement scales What makes a good research question Experimental design Independent and dependent variables Controls counterbalancing and confounds like in the memory experiment Hypothesis testing Inferential statistics is THAT number really bigger than THIS number R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 28 Objectives To arm you with a scientist s skepticism and a scientist s tools to conduct research and evaluate others research The student who successfully completes this course will understand 1 descriptive statistics and how to represent a collection of numbers 2 how to design a good experiment and evaluate if someone else has 3 inferential statistics and hypothesis testing 4 other techniques human beings use to gain new information such as qualitative methods R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 29 Professional History i BS in psych from FSU PhD in cognitive psych from UTAustin Bell Labs for 3 years lBMAustin for 11 years BMC Software for 5 years Cofounded small usability consulting co Previously adjunct faculty member at UT Have taught at UT Rutgers Huston Tillotson SWTSU Assoc prof in the UT School of Information since 2003 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 30 Review syllabus R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 31 What s up with Psychology R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 32 Break Give me the penny back if you lost the birthday bet R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 33 How to talk about a set of numbers I We can list em Can get WAY unwieldy Plus hard to make any sense out of them First step put em in order Second step Graph em andor Calculate percentilesdeciles R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 34 Frequency Distributions Histograms of pets ever owned Put em in order 13 o N O U IOOO Ob I Amth 44 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 35 Freq Dist Raw Scores in order 0 AmthAAAO R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Raw Score Freq 0 1 2 3 4 5 1 2 Jo 2 AOOONCDU I Cumu Freq 36 Histogram 25 quot 05 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 37 PercentilesDeciles i The cumulative percentage for any given score is the percentile for that score The decile is onetenth of the percentile usually rounded to the nearest whole number R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 38 Percentiles LOCATION of 25th percentile X25 N1 25 LOCATION of 50th percentile X50 N1 50 LOCATION of 75th percentile X75 N1 75 Example If we had 10 scores the 25th percentile would be the 1125275th score or part way half way between the 2nOI and 3039 scores The 50th percentile would be the 115055th score or half way between the 5th and 6th scores R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 39 Example of pets ever owned Put em in order 13 0 2 0 1 1 4 1 0 1 1 2 3 3 0 4 5 5 1 13 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 40 Note With an odd number of scores the 50th percentile will be an actual score Raw Scores in order QNAAAOO 5 13 100 50th percentile N150 125 6th score 2 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 41 Scales The data we collect can be represented on one of FOUR types of scales Nominal ommm Interval Ratio Scale in the sense that an individual score is placed at some point along a continuum R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 42 Nominal Scale I Describe something by giving it a name Name Nominal Get it Mutually exclusive categories For example Gender 1 Female 2 Male Marital status 1 single 2 married 3 divorced 4 widowed Make of car 1 Ford 2 Chevy The numbers are just names R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 43 Ordinal Scale An ordered set of objects But no implication about the relative SIZE of the steps Example The 50 states in order of population 1 California 2 Texas 3 New York 50 Wyoming R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Interval Scale I Ordered like an ordinal scale Plus there are equal intervals between each pair of scores With Interval data we can calculate means averages However the zero point is arbitrary Examples Temperature in Fahrenheit or Centigrade IQ scores R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 45 Ratio Scale Interval scale plus an absolute zero Sample Distance weight height time but not years eg the year 2002 isn t twice 1001 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 46 Scales cont d I It s possible to measure the same attribute on different scales Say for instance your midterm test lcould Give you a 1 if you don t finish and a 2 if you finish 1 for highest grade in class 2 for second highest grade 1 for first quarter of the class 2 for second quarter of the class Raw test score 100 99 NOTE A score of 100 doesn t mean the person knows twice as much as a person who scores 50 heshe just gets twice the score R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 47 1 Scales cont d Nomlnal Ordlnal Interval Ratlo Name Mutually exclusive Ordered Equal interval abs 0 Gender Class rank Days of wk Inches YesNo Survey ans Temp Dollars R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 48 Critical Skepticism I Remember the Rabbit Pie example from earlier The critical consumer of statistics asked what do you mean by 5050 Let s look at some other situations and claims R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 49 Company is hurting We d like to ask you to take a 50 cut in pay But if you do we ll give you a 60 raise next month OK Problem Base rate R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 50 Sale Save 100 I doubt it R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 51 Probabilities It s safer to drive in the fog than in the sunshine Kinda like Most accidents occur within 25 miles of home Doesn t mean it gets safer once you get to San Marcos Navy literature around WWI The death rate in the Navy during the Spanish American war was 91000 For civilians in NYC during the same period it was 161000 So Join the Navy It s safer R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 52 Are all results reported i In an independent study ooh magic words people who used Doakes toothpaste had 23 fewer cavities How many studies showed MORE cavities for Doakes users R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 53 Sampling problems i Average salary of 1999 UT grads 41000 How did they find this I ll bet it was average salary of THOSE WHO RESPONDED to a survey Who s inclined to respond R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 54 Correlation 75 Causation i Around the turn of the 20th century there were relatively MANY deaths of tuberculosis in Arizona What s up with that R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 55 Remember I do NOT want you to become cynical Not all media bias is intentional Just be sensible critical skeptical As you consume statistics ask some ques ons R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 56 Ask yourself I Who says SO A Zest commercial is unlikely to tell you that Irish Spring is best HOW does heshe know That Zest is the best soap for you What s missing One year 33 of female grad students at Johns Hopkins married faculty Did somebody change the subject Camrys are bigger than Accords Accords are bigger than Camrys Does it make sense Study in NYC Working woman with family needed 4013week for adequate supponf R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 57 Quote on front of Huff book i It ain t so much the things we don t know that get us in trouble It s the things we know that ain t so Artemus Ward US author Being a critical consumer of statistics will keep you from knowing things that ain t so R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 58 Claims Better chance of being struck by lightening than being bitten by a shark Tom Brokaw Tranquilizers R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 59 Earlier We learned about frequency distributions l asserted that a frequency distribution andor a histogram a graphical representation of a frequency distribution was a good way to summarize a collection of data There s another even shorterhand way R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 60 Measures of Central Tendency Mode Most frequent score or score a distribution can have multiple modes Median Middle score 50th percentile Mean p mu Arithmetic average ZXN R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 61 Let s calculate some averages From old data R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 62 A quiz about averages 1 If one score in a distribution changes Will the mode change Yes No Maybe 2 How about the median Yes No Maybe 3 How about the mean Yes No Maybe 4 True or false In a normal distribution bell curve the mode median and mean are all the same True False R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 63 More quiz 5 This one is tricky If the modemeanmedian then the distribution is necessarily a bell curve True False 6 I have a distribution of 10 scores There was an error and really the highest score is 5 points HIGHER than previously thought a What does this do to the mode Increases it Decreases it Nothing Can t tell b What does this do to the median Increases it Decreases it Nothing Can t tell c What does this do to the mean Increases it Decreases it Nothing Can t tell 7 Which of the following must be an actual score from the distribution a Mean R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 64 OK so which do we use i Means allow further arithmeticstatistical manipulation But o It depends on The type of scale of your data Can t use means with nominal or ordinal scale data With nominal data must use mode The distribution of your data Tend to use medians with distributions bounded at one end but not the other eg salary Look at our Number of MLB games distribution The question you want to answer Most popular score vs middle score vs middle of the seesaw Statistics can tell us which measures are technically correct It cannot tell us which are meaningful Tal 2001p52 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 65 Why isn t a measure of central tendency all we need to characterize a distribution of scoresnumbersdatastuff The price for using measures of central tendency is loss of information Tal 2001p49 R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 66 Note We started with a bunch of specific scores We put them in order We drew their distribution Now we can report their central tendency So we ve moved AWAY from specifics to a summary But with Central Tendency alone we ve ignored the specifics altogether Note MANY distributions could have a particular central tendency If we went back to ALL the specifics we d be back at square one R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 67 Measures of Dispersion Range Semiinterquartile range Standard deviation 0 sigma R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu Homework I Bring in one claim that you hear in the next week On the news inl yOcllJ reading in an ad wherever Just be prepared to share it aou Buy books Coop says they re in o Read Huff All of it Hinton Ch 1 2 3 8 Z ampZ Ch 1 2 3 Come with a guess as to what the most important sentence is in 8 Z amp Z Ch 2 In my humble opinion See you next week R G Bias Schooloflnformation SZB 5628 Phone 512 4717046 rbiasischoolutexasedu 69

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