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by: Bessie Towne


Bessie Towne
GPA 3.92


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Class Notes
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This 35 page Class Notes was uploaded by Bessie Towne on Wednesday September 9, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ENVIR 450 at University of Washington taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 14 views. For similar materials see /class/192166/envir-450-university-of-washington in Program On The Environment at University of Washington.




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Date Created: 09/09/15
7 7 mmwmmm m mm quot m n ww LEE minimum Guest lecture Nate Mantan PhD UW Climate Impacts Group Email nmantuauW ashingtonedu Global what are the issues 3 major questions 1 How well do we understand the climate system and our role in changing it 2 How well can we characterize the impacts of global warming 3 What can be done to deal with human caused global warming Greenhouse Effect Some solar radiation is reflected by the Earth and the 1 atmosphere Some of the infrared radiation passes through the atmosp ere and some is absorbed and reemitted in all directions by greenhouse gas molecules The effect of this is to warm the Earth39s a surface and the lower quot a atmosphere Solar radiation passes through ATM asp1595 the clear atmosphere Most radiation is absorbed by the Earth39s 7 surface and warms it Infrared radiation IS emitted from the Earth39s surface Eamhgs Refbcfed Solar Flt k ic at39 107wn12 l earning Solar Rad39 on 342 wmZ Solar Radigtbn Re ected by 0mm Ae smund Airnosphele Rad imign 235 w mZ 40 Af lospmric Infrared Window solar radiO on CI Upward infrared emimgn from ofmgspheE Qtrncxsp39herre 67 Solar OdiQ On Some facts Earth s natural greenhouse effect warms surface temperatures by 3 3 C 60 F H20 vapor the most powerful greenhouse gas GG other important GG s are C02 CH4 N20 HFCs PFCs and SF6 Human caused emissions of these 06 s are increasing the natural greenhouse effect Without drastic changes in current emissions trends GG concentrations will increase dramatically in the next few centuries Concentrations of Carbon Dioxide and Methane Have Risen Greatly Since PreIndustrial Times Carbon dioxide 33 rise Methane 150 rise 00 w 0 Mauna Loa Flasks Observatory f quot 00 039 O 34 39quot I Ice cores1 I 600 I I E D O E 2 4 III E 1 C 0 U C O O N O 0 N030 MON GOD I Ice cores I 0 Methane concentrationppm 260 1700 1800 1900 2000 1700 1800 1 900 Year Year The MetOffice Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research TEMPERATURE CHANGE C 7 1 I 1 1 f I r I I I I I 150 100 50 o Thammds of years ago mm in 7W6 TIME magazine Figure obtained from httpwwwcruueaacuk There was global warming in the 20th Century Annual Temperature Trends 0C century 19011999 10 08 06 O2 0 02 Trend C decade Source P Jones et a1 2000 Measured and reconstructed Northern Hemisphere Temperatures The rate of 20th C warming has been exceptional 9 039 53 p I quot7 O 5393 1 33 m S L 3 m E E 02 m 5 E E a 1 E m 39 Reconstructed Temperature 2004 3 Medieval Warm Period Littte Ice Age 20G 400 600 800 mm 1200 11400 1600 1800 2000 httpwwwrealclimate0rg Part I summaly Wrens is new and stronger evidence that most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is attributable to human activities H CC WWW 2001 There is a natural greenhouse effect The greenhouse effect is crucial for life on Earth and we know how it works By burning fossil fuels we are rapidly increasing atmospheric concentrations of greenhouse gases and intensifying the natural greenhouse effect temperatures have indeed been rising 5391111 Impacts of Warming A very brief survey rst in the Arctic where ICE MATTERS then in the Tropics where it s THE HEAT for things that are already happening bsewgdl surfEaEe air tempelratume change 22 msuf clent 39 if 3 insuf cient observations a observations 1LLpu1112mlt3ltcl Ice extent km Thinning and retreating sea ice JAS 1 mi 51quot tamer N WM 003329quot 9 muq39 c gt mac 0 3 3 teamdiumdm mmafmgfm 59 I2503939w 39 quota534 p H v a J new far Hg 1GE07 l 5 13 903436 July 39 r anEos A J a 70EOB 60406 50E106 E annual 4054415 mum J Fm i 3JEIEOS spring Md Z GEMJSM quot1quot aumlnur JASJ macaw a eutun39IMOND i z I l i I i 1955 n h 1970 1990 c E c e 3 w v F w w V 3 Year Median extent 39 r for 19882000 From Walsh and Chapman 2000 Snow melt dates at the NOAACMDL Barrow Observatory Snow is melting earlier in spring 3 u I lll gt a 0 if 9 I I lt D I l LI 5 4o 45 50 55 so 55 70 75 so 55 90 95 100105 YEAR 1900 Time series e0mpil ed from snow depth 0bservati0ns proxy estimates based on temperature and beginning in 1986 surface radiometric measurements updated frOm Stone et al 2002 Shown here are Austin Post39s 1958 photo of the McCall Glacier terminus alongside of a 2003 photo by Matt Nolan taken at almost the same spot httpWwwuafeduwaterfacultynolanglaciers M a mg 33 i hag Kai it 31mins wavca llfL Emmi a 2 gmm 2 mm mm 2 1mm duration of the North Slope ice road season is shrinking North Slope Opening and Closing Dates for Tundra Travel Plotted by Water Year 115 days 0624X 7 031225 P 00007 1 1Lquotquot 439 I l l 1 14 Oct1 1965 1 970 1975 1980 1985 1 990 1 995 2000 Coral Bleaching pictures from the Great Barrier Reef Healthy coral aooxanthe lae bleached coral When the ocean gets too warm for a prolonged period symbiotic algae zooxanthellae are lost httpwww gbrmpagovaucorpsiteinfoservicessciencebleaching Annual reef bleaching events since 1979 and the Widespread bleaching of 1998 Figures oblained quotfrom WWW greenpeaceusa orgmediapubi icafions coral bleaching him also see wwwcoralnoaagov g 55 EH 9 25 E 5 C G 39 Mlllllllll Ill allmale System now used to assess f WNW mumsmallish the impacts of human activities on Earth s climate Similar to the computer models used to predict the weather but much more sophisticated simulate interactions between the atmosphere its constituents LCOZ 02 03 N2 the ocean sea ice Vegetation and clouds Evapomn and Hon EMMY Annuals mum Denna lt quot E 1 i a 2 E Karl amp Trenberth 2003 Science IPCC Third Assessment Report 2001 Key Findings of Working Group I Global average temperature and sea level are projected to rise under all IPC39C scenarios future climate scenarios different model emissions combinations give different answers model uncertainty K Ln I Emissions uncertainty quotN E a Ei l I h LL 1 E 31739 3951 quot 1l fifquot Ii ifflni I1 HLL VT39il I9quot 39e 39rrai nalIa I r n I v a 333343 BEEI2 3331 E 1 DU T lAIlJI L1quot 1 A L v 4 CI 5 N S L G 31 539 4 N h Q Q E d H H l quot 3 u F 4E h 0 39 7 gt1 3 L 7 BEL 4 mm 39 Nun m use 0 KLJMLEFMS 9 Sea level rise 39 Global average sea level is projected to rise by 4 to 35 inches between 1990 and 2100 Scenarios All SRES envelope including landice uncenainly Several models all SHES 0 a envelope 39 Sea level Will continue to rise for hundreds of years after stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations Model average all SRES envelope 0 1 A m E a E V m m 39E E gt 2 cu m 03 0 m p g4 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 Year Applying the brakes on global warming To reduce the risks posed by global warming we need to limit the rise in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations by Sharply reducing future greenhouse gas leSSIOnS Andor increasing the uptake of greenhouse gases that are in the atmosphere Annual Number of People Flooded 391 a From Sir David King s a Change from the Feb 13 2004 keynote 4 lecture for the AAAS i present dayotoo the Seattle WA 39 2080s unmitigated V emissions i 50 million 1 20 million 5 million 2 million 5 u quotF r l 1w lit 5060 39 a quot 39 6070 g 39 5060 7080 6070 8090 7080 h gt90 a so9o gt90 Stabilization at 750ppm 5 Stabilization at 550ppm Reduction in change due to reduced emissions scenarios 5quot GHFFNHDUSFGASKFMISSIDNS 5quot 32 2 l g A I I r u quot 2v u pFR CAlpn39A 39 EMISSIONS 2002 2mm 4 mfgyf quotls 39 39 Tquot I ECU Llnllecl Ch l Pa Russia I r i 1 Japan Germany BraZII Canada Erilain Italy France SQth la real Time to Check Emissmns Many countriea 33913le approved he Mom PRJIGCDL which inlandcd l0 reduce global emissians cf healMapping gases Only Induglreai nallons that have Slgned the agreement n usl reduae the arwssms The Unwed Slates and Aust39alia are 1an hthe hm have men approved The accord HATEED KYOTO ACC GRD quot39JDl JRIAL ZED E l30 3 r usl BF lE39t39jUCdd C5 helm 990 lL VEllv during the p 73813 BEIle quotQ Mas Ukraine CHI4G Joanlarycarmrutm m la SE39Jebp av to Ilmi quh of Qmiss ans A 1 in A A 33495 931 Eatin My 1f TTTlTTllllTlllll m mm Port ml Netherlands Mir 391 here 3 51 3 m3 TTTTTTTT m39l 39nrt s39 lr mltlmrw The size of the 2035 emissions pie is projected to be almost twice as large as it was in 1995 Total World Emissions Developing 1995 World C in Latin 11 America 4 Developing World 39 39 Other Asia 14 Latin 39 America 60 39 Ag Mid East 5 Other h 3 Asia 6 Developed World 73 USA 22 W Europe 17 USA 15 7 E EuropeFSU 19 Asia 400 Shifting views in US Climate Policy Widespread and growing leadership from state and local governments See EPA site on state legislation httpyosemiteepmgovglobalwaming ghgns ac onsllegisla veini a ves See Hassol and Udall s article A Change in Climate hapzIwwszsnesoxg193Ihassounm McCainLieberman Climate Stewardship Act a bipartisan effort to regulate US emissions of greenhouse gases narrowly defeated in US Senate in 2003 5543 vote See httplwwwpewelimateorgfpolicyeenterlanaiyseslsl39 51nnmatyd m For more information 0 The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change httpwwwipcech The UW Climate Impacts Group httpcsaswashington educig RealClimate a no spin zone on climate science httprealclimate org Change in the Complex mvlmnmenlil and saclal quesllom surmund the future museum of lhe Ammo National Wll ife Flofugm Whill WW nonunliaus and dollars tend to flame future HIan issues In Isms of the economy versus the mmmum broadr inn 0f Invlmnrmmal changg global ramming Mutiny equ y and human rlahls must be considered Inmiscaume mwmm bngadmmmmcs us onmwhmm and rmhand experience and to develop an plan inf a magma Maillot that mud canny m central issuu tn m public V k v w i Fur mute Elimination plea cuntact Terry Rustan at mmn gumashingtunndu or 206 6 16 33 1 0 I Clumum 912 mun July 2131 I Aug 1119 MWIF mnhiAuq 1 10 I Mutt Limllad to 10 a mix of gradum and umumdum r participants Smdomcmsmvla mum gums 39 Cont Approxim taly 2500 V 7 Instructors l W llama M Mmanmmd uhklms lyd Himmmmmrmmmndm mmn Law II PIO 39l mu m magnum Myquot mum Mid mm cm was Annahm Enmmnlnl 5mm uw Tluul Mum AnnaIn Putsn8le W Ema A model 8 observations 3 05 39 TU E o E 00 9 3 16 2 E 05 g 3 Natural Climate Influences model observations Human Climate Influences f 1850 1900 1950 Year 2000 All Climate Influences 10 39 I I 1850 1900 1950 2000 Year A 10 I g model 7 observations 2 05 m E O a e 00 3 5 lt3 05 E G 39 10 1850 1900 Year 1 950


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