CARBON AND CLIMATE
CARBON AND CLIMATE ESS 588
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This 19 page Class Notes was uploaded by Miss Jeanette Keebler on Wednesday September 9, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ESS 588 at University of Washington taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 47 views. For similar materials see /class/192674/ess-588-university-of-washington in Earth And Space Sciences at University of Washington.
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Date Created: 09/09/15
FCC 588 January 6 and 8 2009 Winter 2009 ATMSOCNESS 588 The Global Carbon Cycle and Greenhouse Gases TTh 1200120 pm OSB 425 Course Goals The course focuses on factors controlling the global cycle of carbon and the greenhouse gases 302 CH4 N20 03 and halocarbons Abundance and distribution of carbon and greenhouse gases Physical chemical and biological mechanisms that control ocean atmosphere and terrestrialatmosphere exchange of carbon and greenhouse gases The geologic evidence for climate change linked to greenhouse gases The fate ofanthropogenic greenhouse gases their impact on climate and strategies for sequestration of anthropogenic gases Course Structure Greenhouse gases and radiative forcing 15 week NonCO2 greenhouse gases and aerosols 2 weeks Carbon cycle past present future 25 weeks Anthropogenic perturbation to Ccycle 15 week Geoengineering solutions 1 week Class presentations 1 week 3 Problem sets 30 Midterm exam 25 Participation in class and during paper discussions 15 Term paper amp oral presentation 30 The IPCC Reports Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change IPCC established in 1988 by WMO and UNEP 9assess available scienti c and socioeconomic information on climate change and its impacts and on the options mitigation and adaptation Report every 5 years 1991 1996 2001 and 2007 Compiled by hundreds of scientists reviewed by scientists governments and experts consensus document 39 r H him I l l I F The scienti c Basis Impacts Adamalion Mitigation and vulnera t 111 L Observed changes in climate quotWarming of the climate system is unequivocal as is now evident from observations of increases in global average air temperatures widespread melting ofsnow and ice and rising average sea levelquot lPCC 2007 Summary for Policymakers 5PM Yum GLunAL Tsmpsmun Tamas r p mama mm m n IPCC 2007 Tech Sum TS Global temperature increase 074 C 19062005 Human drivers of climate change 7 3541 350 7 m 7 ma rgnn 2mm v1 no carbon Diaxide ppm Up 35 a a Fossrl E 7 fues 2 land use 3 7 change g E E 1 5m Methane Huh 3 e a CH4 Fossil fuel 7 use agriculture NO angcuIture IPCC SPM 2007 Past 650000 years Glacialinterglacial ice core data CO cum I I I a an E W 39160 J 39380 9 M Mr uh I W w Jr W 420 Fr 1 Em l l l M Mr I I val k N r rum J3 320 250 Np mph Illllll g p l son and IPCC r52007 l W a l MAM mark lm I 20 Tum unouumrs nlyenrs halal prusanu mo O Proxy for loca temperature Today and Thursday From greenhouse gases to climate change The climate system what controls the temperature of the Earth Greenhouse effect Radiative forcing Global warming potential 002 equivalent emissions Relating radiative forcing to temperature changes Reading for this week will be on class web site IPCC WG1 Summary for Policymakers 20079 inclass discussion next Tues 1 1 y r4 For more information PCC W67 Technical Summary 2007 Radiation tutoralrefresher Chapter 7 in jacoh s quotintroduction to Atmospheric Chemistry Human Impacts on the Climate System Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2006 Hum1n m m r Ea races 1 Natural 1 a r amalva Forcing wants per square moire IPcc Chap 2 Global Temperature 60E 90E LZUE 50E t8 50W 20W 90W 60W 30W 0 30E sn 75 an as an 45 an AS rm VS a s in 15 an 395 m Annual and global average temperature 15 C ie 288 K Energy Inputs and Outputs a max soov cuwvzs A a mowmuzzn ultra viaer visibe4 in afed Both Sun and Earth behave as blackbodies absorb 100 incident radiation emit radiation at all wavelengths in all directions Earth receives energy from sun in the form of shortwave radiation with peak in the visible A 04 07 pm Earth emits energy to space in the form of Iongwave radiation in the infrared k 520 rim 9 function of Earth s temperature Total Solar Radiation Received By Earth Solar constant for Earth FS1368 W m392 Note 1 W 1 J s39l Solar radiation ux Terrestrial 4 radiation ux l UTE4 SUN EARTH r e d I I l I Solar radiation received top of atmosphere unit area of sphere 1368 x n r624 n rez 342 W m392 A NoAtmosphere Earth Assume 30 ofincoming solar energy is re ected by surface albedo of surface 03 Energy absorbed by surface 70 of 342 W m2 2394 W m2 Balanced by energy emitted by surface StefanBoltzmann law Energy emitted G T4 U567 x103 Wm2 Kquot 2394W m392 c T4 9 T 255 K 18 C 9 much less than average temperature of 288 K 15 C What is missing 9 Absorption ofterrestrial radiation by the atmosphere Interactions between radiation and atoms or molecules humquot of Interacting with an atom can cause wavelength gt Ultraviolet W GE Electronic transitions lt04 pm Interacting with a molecule T 33 o UV W A m V a 0 Electronic transmons lt04 pm NearlR W A o7ltlt2o um lnfrared m microwave W Vibrational transmons 7 gt 20 wquot 9 Greenhouse gases Philand r 1998 Rotational transitions 9 Greenhouse gases Greenhouse Effect Absorption of terrestrial radiation by the atmosphere m nasanmu x p p P 9 oody Yung 7989 Absorption of terrestrial infrared radiation by greenhouse gases such as H20 002 O3 CH4 N20 CFCs keeps the Earth s surface warmer than would be the case if there were no atmosphere n M mmm WW pr Ahwptian w Not all molecules are equal Question Consider CO2 CH4 N20 03 and CFCs on a per molecule basis which do you expect to be most effective at absorbing infrared radiation Least effective Why An Idealized Earthatmosphere 1026 w m39 72 342 I11quot Outgoingbrmshialmdia m i Acmosphm Ea hmrface l l l T 106 T l l Atmospheric hiya T absorbed Et39ficimcy of 4 absoptionf l 7 Ti f6 To4 72 2394 w m y 1 t T04 Surface T Solar radiation at surface 70 of 342 W m392 2394 W m392 Infrared ux from surface G T04 Absorption of infrared ux by atmosphere f G T04 Kirchhost law ef ciency ofabsorption ef ciency of emission IR ux from atmospheric layer f lt7 T up and down Radiation Balance Equations 1025 w m 2 m Dutyhgtnzshi ndh nn WWquot Eanhmrface 100 TBA ch T T Aimssphemisya 7 5 T 2394 w m 5 TBA Sulfa r E aiance ai iop oi aimospnere raw 04 cm2394 Eaiance my aimospnenc iayer icnumw mm 9 Soive my Tu and T1 The Greenhouse Effect 342 m2 1025 w m outpsgsmmmsm WWquot Eanhmrface 1 0 TBA fr T T 0 Aimssphemisya 7 6 T4 2394 w m 5 TBA 5mm Fori0 77 T5288 K and km K 33 Kwanneiinanine nuraimuspneie case As i increases Tu and T1 increase Greenhouse gases 9 gases ihai aiieci i absorpiion efficiency of sinus Eann has a naiurai greenhouse effeci human aciiviiies enhance effeci Energy Balance on Earth m Reflected Solar Incoming 235 Outgoing Radialion 342 Solar Longwave 107 Wm z Radiation Radiation 342 Wm 2 5 Wm Reflected by Clouds Aeroso and 77 I 40 WSW Emilled by Atmospheric 77 Atmosphere 155 Window Absorbed by Greenhouse 67 Atmosphere Gases 332 quot ac 9955233ng Radiation 30 390 155 24 75 surface Absorbed by Surface Thermals Evapo Radiation 324 transpiration Absorbed by Surlac e IPCC 2001 What are the differences between this picture and our simple model Incoming Outgoing terrestrial radiation solar Sequence of alum Increasingly W4 tumor com plex Atmospheric layer Models Almospnm Ednllsllr lc Surface Div ion of atmosphere into elemental slabs Gray atmospherequot Exponential decrease in mode temperature Tm N 210 K Resolutio of spectral absorption into lines and and modelsquot Spectrally resolved radiative models Inclusion of buoyancy convection energy balance Radiative convective m odels Global threedimensional equations for conservation of energy mass and momentum General circulation O The tilt n models dels fer climate research TERRESTRIAL RADIATION SPECTRUM FROM SPACE composite of blackbody radiation spectra for different T Scene over Niger valley N Africa W39nveieugii1pm 20 IS 12 II In a z 7 I I I I I I surface J I o Rash Mice IU WV mgsr cm top of stratosphere 3amp5 39 400 500 800 1000 1100 140a mm Wiwmumtw cm How does the addition of a greenhouse gas warm the earth Example of a GHG absorbing at 11 pm 1 Initial state 2 2 Add to atmosphere a G G absorbing at 11 pm emission at 11 urn decreases we don t see the surface anymo hat 1 but the atm re at sphere 3 At new steady state total emission integrated over all A39s must be conserved Q Emission at other A39s must increase Q The Earth must heat Concept of Radiative Forcing Measure of the climatic impact of a greenhouse gas or other forcing agent Radiative forcing change in radiation balance flux in minus out at the top ofthe atmosphere due to a change in amount of greenhouse gas before the system relaxes to equilibrium AF W m39z Consider atmosphere in radiation balance gt If concentration of a greenhouse gas increases and nothing else changes 9 outgoing terrestrial radiation decreases IPCC definition of radiative forcing IPCC definition The radiative forcing of the surfacetroposphere system due to the perturbation in or the introduction of an agent say a change in greenhouse gas concentrations is the change in net down minus up irradiance solar plus longwave in Wm39z at the tropopause AFTER allowing for stratospheric temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium but with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state held fixed at the unperturbed valuesquot v Stratospheric Zerusurface Equilibrium 39quotS amamws RF adjust RF temperature hangs RF climate response Strawwhen tem NFnerflux imbalance pmmmamm Nafluximhalnntc ar tropopause Almosphem temperatureiadlusl WWW Wei tempmme xed KCmporiwm mu m mm Everywhere mwmm troposphere and at temptNature fixed at surfxe Why is radiative forcing useful Simple measure to quantify and rank the many different in uences on climate change Robust can be calculated with some accuracy Additive globallyregionallylocally ls used to calculate surface temperature changes but avoids issue of climate sensitivity Nearquantitative comparison ofanthropogenic forcing agents Radiative forcing calculations in mm magma unnmnlntlunl mum wall mixed FFJ 3L4 gunmen Simpli ed expressions for RF calculations MD WW 5 Gas Radiative lolrl m i co 7 1m WAmmo mew on E 39 cm UnAn txm m tummy 5 E i39 N we r oush le alimml aim 139quot when m m7 amp 7 2 m 8 zap lav w c ew gm vats 7 or m n F a 25417 x zsn Pciz F n323y rm 5 a mum a um um E E g 600 E Tabe fom Hansen ezal PVAS Vol 97 78 Q25quot 3 987579880 2000 s u moo m a E E lt 39 mm ome M nIeg0Venmental Panel on 2 quot mm quotNquot W Clih73teChangePCC2007 Human Impacts on the Climate System Radiative forcing of climate between 1750 and 2006 Racmivn rvag mm Radiative forcing gives rst order estimate of the relative climatic forcing of anthropogenic gases aerosols landuse change Human nu ma mm IPcc Chap 2 GLOBAL WARMING POTENTIAL GWP foundation for climate policy The GWP measures the integrated radiative forcing over a time horizon At from the injection of1 kg ofa species X at time 5 relative to CO I At w e W 7 m j AE kgxdt GWP y 1 AF kg 002d In CO2 equivalent emissions Amount of CO2 that would have the same radiative forcing as an emitted amount of a GHG for a 100 year horizon time integrated radiative forcing Example Emitting 1 million ton of CH4 GWP100 years 25 is the same as emitting 25 million tons of CO2 or 25 Gt COZequivalent Question are the impacts really the same Global anthropogenic GHG emissions in terms of COZeq GlCOzeq yr 1970 r950 i990 2000 2000 D sources 39 Ara and peat D CH4 lrom agriculture wesie and energy I N20 from agriculture and others I Fgases IPCC WGIII Mitigation TS 2007 Radiative Forcing and Temperature Change Response of system to energy imbalance 9 To and T1 increase 9 may cause other greenhouse gases to change 9 To and T1 may increase or decrease depending on internal climate feedbacks 9 Af9 AT 9 etc 9 Ultimately the system gets back in balance Radiative forcing is only a measure of initial change in outgoing terrestrial radiation How do we relate radiative forcing to temperature change ATO Surface Temperature change C ATo 7 AF AF Radiative forcing WImZ A Climate sensitivity C per WImZ Climate models GCMsg indicate that it ranges from 03 to 14 C per Wmz On average 7 7 C per Wm2 Feedbacks water vapor feedback positive G h Greenhouse reen ouse effect e m Temperature Water vapor icealbedo feedback positive cloud feedbacks positive or negative potentially large Clouds can reflect solar radiation or absorb it radiation depending on their height thickness and microphysica properties land surface feedback positive deforestation and hydrological cycle Climate response to a doubling of CO2 Solar S and Iongwave L radiation in NW2 at the top ofthe atmosphere 5 L S L S L S L 235 Z 235 Z 235 Z 235 Z T 48 C COZX Z Feedbacks H20 60 col X2 col X2 IceAlbedo 60 AF 4 Wm2 TS15 C TS15 C ATS12 C ATS3 C Past 650000 years Glacialinterglacial ice core data L A r W e ww f J 4 WWW fMJwMwwmu J n J A I1 L Y Fm M 1 LWJVMLWN L L W w gum V m v Km a mu umusnnd 0 years canquot prescnl Proxy for Ioca temperature IPCC 752007 Ice Age Climate Forcing Wmz 41511 may 66 15 WM Ice Age Forcings 0mm AT 5 i I C lmply G obal 3 7 a 2 Climate 44 6 W Sensitivity WC per WImZ Source Hansen Etai Nail Geogr Res amp Eggone 141 was
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