Psychology 202: Judgement and Decision Making
Psychology 202: Judgement and Decision Making
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This 3 page Reader was uploaded by Bryce Buser on Sunday June 8, 2014. The Reader belongs to a course at University of Oregon taught by a professor in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 67 views.
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Date Created: 06/08/14
Psychology 202 CRN 37657 T R 4 550pm Updates This is the Tuesday of wee 1039s lecture on judgment and Decision Making What You Need to Know Notes that you need to know are in black Any notes that I have added for clarity on the topic will be in green Hopefully this makes things a more clear for you all and if you have any ideas in how I can format these notes to make things even easier send me an email at buseruoregonedu Study Tip Turn these notes into ashcards Use bolded words for the front and the definitions for the back Keep your eating and sleeping patterns consistent through dead week If you are used to going to bed at a certain amount of time it won39t do you any good you stay up all night before a final studying This isn39t healthy anyway From this class we heard that memory is formed during sleep read you notes over during the day and that night you will start to form the memory of what you have heard Tuesday lune 2 2014 Corresponding Readings Textbook p none Vocabulary Cognitive Errors our brains are not build fro truth and instead take cognitive shortcuts for processing information efficiently which in turn produce systematic and predicative cognitive biases 1 Availability Heuristic 2 Representative Heuristic 3 Anchoring 4 Gambler39s Fallacy 5 Hot Hand 6 Loss Aversion 7 Endowment Effect Availability Heuristic the cognitive error of relying on information that is easier to retrieve when making judgments For example when asked if there are more dogs on leashes in America or ducks we think of all the times we see dogs vs ducks leashes and conclude that there are more dogs In this case it39s a good Heuristic However let39s say we are asked if there are more words that start with the letter r or if there are more words that have r as the third letter in the word We are going to say there are more words that start with the letter r because we can think of more However there are in fact more words that have r as the third letter in a word making this a bad heuristic Terrorism also works using the availability heuristic more people died in car accidents after 911 because they didn39t want to travel on plains You are more likely to die in a car accident then a plane but because a plane crash gets so much more attention than a car accident it is easier for us to recall plane crashes than car accidents because we are not told about the car accidents they don39t get nearly as much media coverage Terrorism is a cognitive weapon preying on cognitive biases Lottery Availability Heuristic it39s easy to think of all the times people have won the lottery and it seems way more likely to win than it actually is Its harder to think of the much more frequent losers You would have to listen for nine years without sleep breaks of people saying quotI lost before you could hear just 30 seconds of people saying I won Representative Heuristic People are likely to rely on how well something or someone represents their schema for each group rather than concentrating on the base rates of each group For example someone with a PhD is more likely to be a postal worker than work at an Ivy League college because there are way more postal worker positions and hardly any teaching positions at an Ivy League college However because of the representative heuristic people will say the person with the PhD is more likely to be a professor at an Ivy League which is in fact a cognitive error Anchoring Real Estate a group of students as well as a group of real estate agents were given information on a home bedrooms bathrooms square feet land etc as well as the listing price for the house The students and the experts then guessed There were four sets of the groups and each was given a different listing price increased by 10000 It was found that as the price of the listing price increased so did the guesses from the students as well as the experts They were subjects to the anchoring bias they took the listing price they were given and based their guess off the listing prices without thinking about the information they had been given Anchoring Ghandi two groups were asked Ghandi s age The first group was asked if he was older or younger than nine and the second group was asked if he was younger or older than 140 when he died They were then asked to guess his age Group 1 guessed 50 and Group 2 asked 67 Group 1 guessed lower than group 2 because they were anchoring on a smaller number 9 than group 2 140 Anchoring this cognitive error occurs when we are uncertain about something because it explains our tendency to rely on comparison to explain something Gambler39s Fallacy if you have a streak for example ipping a coin four times and it39s all heads you will believe that you will soon get a tails because its owed to you People forget that each ip is independent of each other and every time the coin is ipped if it is a fair coin it has the same probability of being heads as it does being tails Hot Hand the idea that people get mainly in basketball that when you have made a certain amount of shots you become more likely to make the next basket The likelihood of you making your next basket is not in correlation with a streak you might have had we can39t help but notice patterns in something that is completely random After we do this our confirmation bias takes over Loss Aversion losses tend to be psychologically more powerful than gains We don39t want to lose what we already have Duke subtends camped out for tickets and since there weren39t enough tickets for all the campers students were put into a lottery Those who got tickets were willing to sell them for 2000 because they were experiencing the endowment affect and would also lose the experience of going to the Duke game Those who did not have tickets were only willing to buy them for 100 because they had not every owned one and it did not have as big affect on them when they had other plans for watching the game anyway Endowment Affect merely owning something makes it have more value to us Duke example see above Psychology Application of PSY 202 in real life 1 Help us understand other people 2 Help us understand ourselves 3 Help us live our lives a little better Hopefully