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by: Melisa O'Reilly


Melisa O'Reilly
GPA 3.54


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About this Document

Class Notes
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This 10 page Class Notes was uploaded by Melisa O'Reilly on Saturday September 12, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to Arts 1 at University of California - Irvine taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 20 views. For similar materials see /class/201956/arts-1-university-of-california-irvine in Arts at University of California - Irvine.


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Date Created: 09/12/15
Learning From Historical Precedent Dr Michael J Pazzani Department of Information and Computer Science University of California Irvine CA 92717 pazzaniicsuciedu Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it Santayanna One of the most curious features of the history of economic sanctions has been the the extent to which the experience of past cases has been overlooked or ignored Robin Renwick 1 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 OCCAM Question What would happen if the United States refused to sell computers to South Korea unless South Korea stopped exporting automobiles to Canada dme The goal of the United States that South Korea not sell automobiles to Canada will fail and South Korea will purchase computers from a country which exports computers This happened when the United States did not sell grain to the Soviet Union after the Soviet Union invaded Afghanistan Argentina sold grain to the Soviet Union Also Australia did not sell uranium to France after France exploded nuclear weapons in the South Pacific South Africa sold uranium to France 1 OCCAMS output is edited slightly by adding tense information to verbs 2 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 Learning from observations Issues Aggregating examples into clusters of similar events Determining set of features relevant Explaining prediction 1921 League of Nations vs Yugoslavia threat Refuse to import to Yugoslavia demand Stop invasion Albania outcome success 1961 USSR vs Albania threat Refuse to sell grain demand Stop economic ties with China outcome fail China sells Albania Canadian wheat at lower price 1980 US vs USSR threat Cut off grain sales demand Withdraw troops from Afghanistan outcome failure Buy grain from Argentina at a higher price 1948 USSR vs Yugoslavia threat Cut off foreign aid demand Stop political independence outcome fail US give economic aid 1976 US vs Ethiopia threat Stop aid 57 million demand Stop human rights violations outcome fail Soviets provide aid 1983 Australia vs France threat Not sell uranium demand Stop nuclear tests outcome fail France buys from South Africa at higher price 3 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 Schemata in OCCAM Generalized event Causal chain lndices acto arqet object threat demand actor object tarqet threat coerce coerce actor human actor polity exports OBJECT target human wealth rich object commodity ipt ipt type parent target polity economy strong of OBJECT IMPORTS objec object human threat sell actor ACTOR threat kill actor ACTOR olqject OBJECT object OBJECT to TARGET demand atrans actor TARGET mode NEG to ACTOR olqject MONEY object I coerce object human age infanlt 4 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 Explanationbased Learning Relevant features identified by domain theory Similar events are those that have the same explanation Explanation stored with schema Two forms of prediction and explanation Recognize and instantiate Chaining ln OCCAM EBL forms schemata to recognize successful and unsuc cessful types of sanction incidents EBL analyzes why one example succeeds or fails and constructs a general description of the class of situations that will have the same outcome for the same reason EBL removes features from a training example that were not needed to construct an explanation 5 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 6 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 Explanation by chaining in OCCAM type type type act type propelquotact type atrans state type broken object initiates affect state object p object price expensive owner human initiates affect affect state neg object result char human act object p obj composition glass result state type broken object p obj composition glass 7 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 OCCAM Control structure OCCAMEvent Schema findmostspecificschemaEvent if explainsSchema Event Then indexeventschemaevent elseif chainexplanationevent Then EBLevent schema elseif cluster retrieveclusterschemaevent Then SBLevent cluster schema else indexeventschemaevent def rule demand increase gtprice increase STATE TYPE DEMAND INCREASE ACTOR X POLITY ECONOMIC HEALTH STRONG OBJECT Y COMMODITY AVAILABILITY COMMON ENABLES ACT TYPE SELL ACTOR POLITY EXPORTS Y BUSINESS REL X TO X OBJECT Y PRICE MONEY VALUE gtMARKET 8 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 1 948 Soviet Union and Yugoslavia The Soviet Union threatened to stop granting economic aid to Yugoslavia if Yugoslavia continued its attempts at political independence The US offered 35000000 in aid and Yugoslavia continued to distance itself from the Soviet Union 1 threatgt goal conflict maintain economic health or achieve political freedom 2 plan undogoallinkage find another mean of economic health US wants to reduce influence of Soviet Union Providing aid to Yugoslavia will reduce Soviet influence Aid achieves Yugoslavia s goal of economic health Soviet threat does not cause a goal failure for Yugoslavia Yugoslavia continues political freedom Soviet Goal fails 9 AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991 Question Answering Concept completion questions outcome 1 Parse English gt CD 2 Findmostspecificschemaquestion 3 lnfer missing slots 4 Instantiate Explanation 5 Select Answer 6 Generate Answer CD gt English 7 Explain Similar cases root coerce agency l83 lll80 ll81 3I65 3I82 3ll62 ll6l ll68 2ll6l 2ll48 4I76 3I33 l25 l2l l60 3 1O AISIG Learning from Historical Precedent Tuesday February 5 1991


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