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by: Quentin Kiehn


Quentin Kiehn
GPA 3.82


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Class Notes
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This 8 page Class Notes was uploaded by Quentin Kiehn on Saturday September 12, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to INTL 1100 at University of Georgia taught by Zhang in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 54 views. For similar materials see /class/202128/intl-1100-university-of-georgia in International Affairs at University of Georgia.

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Date Created: 09/12/15
Global Security and Stability 612011 52500 PM International Conflicts o Three Level of Analysis 0 Man The State and War Waltz 0 Individual Actor Individuals Sources of International Conflict amp War a Human Nature Leadership Great or crazy leaders Psychological and cognitive reasons misperceptions accidents assassinations citizen s participation Rebelling Loss of Control Expected utility of war Causes of War a Human Condition 0 State Actor State or state s internal traits Sources of Conflict n Economic Structures MilitaryIndustrial Complex Undemocratic Regimes Nationalism Political Parties Interest Groups Industries Bureaucracies Public Opinions Domestic Coalitions Causes of War a Behavior of state s traits like economic structure type of government interest groups etc 0 System ActorInternational System Sources of International ConflictWar a Power Transition a Power Asymmetry n Arms Race Cause of War B International System o Natural anarchic structure War ultimately happens because nothing is there to stop it NeoRealism Scientific analysis shuns norms and values of Classical Realism a Defensive Realism n Offensive Realism World Systems Theory Clash of Civilizations o Willingness and Opportunity 0 Willingness Intentions Motivations and Goals of policy makers Decision making process the leads to choosing war 0 Opportunity Military Capability Technological and Physically possible 0 Both must be present neither one is sufficient alone Sources of international Conflict o International Level 3rd Image 0 NeoRealism Power Transition a When power shifts from one state to another a Wars occur when power of Hegemon fades o Challenger wants to fill power gap o Hegemon wants to start a preemptive war o Happened with Germany and Britain in both World Wars o Not always valid no US vs UK war when power shifted Power Asymmetry Arms Race a Security increases of one state prompt other increases in another state from fear a Increase in capabilities fluctuates cycle repeats n Causes series of Power Transitions n Also called Spiral Model Polarity What kind of system provides most stability and least wars n Unipolar PostCold War a Bipolar Cold War a Multipolar The 19th Century Europe a What is right o Relationship between polarity and stability is unresolved o Empirical evidence to support all positions 0 World System Theory Wallerstein Core a Rich Industrialized States SemiPeriphery n Developing Middle of the Road Periphery a Poor Developing Nations Core Conflicts and Hegemony for productivity dominance trade dominance Throughout history group of core nations competing for accessing resources of periphery o Clash of Civilizations Huntington Response to Fukuyama s End of the History of the World Major civilizations with core nations will clash due to cultural and religious identities a Core State Conflicts o Global Level D Fault Lines Conflicts o Local levels between states World is becoming a smaller place civilizations interacting more conflicts will become more frequent Economic modernization and social change is causing separation and division among people Western Efforts to promote values of democracy and liberalism combined with military dominance will results in reactions o Domestic Level 2nd Image 0 Imperialism HobsonLenin Theory of Imperialism Economic Structure of Capitalism a Results in concentration of wealth in capitalist nations D So much concentrated wealth must invest abroad Underdeveloped world is the investment opportunity Intensive competition between Core nations to retain control over Periphery Countries This competition leads to conflict 0 Implications of Democratic Peace Liberal Democracies do not fight each other bc peaceful cultures and internal structural constrains of checks and balances Undemocratic Regimes wage more wars and violence against their own people 0 Duration of State Independence New States are more likely to initiate wars than mature states Drives to settle longstanding internal grievances and territorial disputes by force often follow the acquisition of independence New countries typically have gone through period of internal political chaos which acts as a catalyst to subsequent foreign aggression as leaders try to divert public focus to fearing the neighboring states 0 Poverty and Inequality of states Country s level of economic development also affects the probability of its involvement in war Historically a Most warlike states have been poor and unequal n Locale has shifted since 1945 to developing countries at Global South s Periphery 0 Economic Growth and Interdependence States with high economic growth may be disinclined to fight wars n Populations satisfied with economic growth and political status quo n Leaders do not have incentives to start wars if economy is prospering n Diversionary Theory Liberal Argument of Interdependence 9 Peace n NeoMarxists say equal cooperation promotes peace while asymmetrical cooperation leads to conflict Realists say trade leads to conflict Trade is irrelevant to conflict Contradicting findings n n n o Individual 1St Level 0 Classical Realism Human Nature 0 Leader s Personality and Experience o Foreign Policy Analysis Individual 0 Rationality Bounded Rationality Simon a Decision maker s capacity to choose the best option is constrained by many human and organizational obstacles n Must seek satisfactory option not always best 0 Psychological Dimensions Errors and Mistakes Misperception n Inaccurate inferences n Miscalculations of consequences n Misjudgments about o Distribution of capabilities o Intentions of Others o How others will react to one s policies Selective Perceptions n Biased processing of information D Information Screens subconscious filters o Tendency to ignore or discount info which contradicts expectations o Placing too much emphasis on information which confirms expectations o Wishful Thinking o Overestimating the likelihood of a desired outcome Personality Barber 1 Two categories in American Foreign Political Leaders o Energy Level 0 Active 0 Passive o Personal Satisfaction 0 Negative 0 Positive o ActivePositive Presidents Roosevelt Truman Kennedy Bush 0 Handle crises well Operational Code Leites Bolsheviks later George D a World viewBelief system of foreign policy elites Focus on beliefs of political leaders as casual mechanisms in explaining foreign policy decisions Prospect Theory 1 a Leading alternative to rational choice theory Grounded in the actual cognitive capacities of human decision makers More empirically accurate therefore realistic theory Framing o Loss Aversion o Tendency of individuals to overvalue what they already have 0 Tendency of actors to aggressively avoid losses 0 If state is in a losses frame may behave recklessly 0 Even despite knowing that it as at the severe disadvantage in terms of capabilities o Status Quo o If status quo is acceptable state is in a gains frame 0 If not in a losses frame 0 Predictive and explanatory of prospect theory hinges on being able to determine a state s assessment of the status quo Groupthink Janis n Groups may promote rational decision making by balancing out blind spots and biases of individuals a Division of labor can facilitate superior intelligence gathering and analysis a BUT group dynamics may introduce new sources of irrationality n SelfCensorship n Tendency to enforce conformity and consensus Bureaucratic Bargaining Organization Process Paths to International Cooperation amp Peace o Liberal Prescription 1 Provide state s rules of international law to regulate competition and resolve disputes 2 Participate in the creation of International Organizations 3 Practice collaboration to bind independent states together in integrated security communities 4 Promote spread of democratic governance 5 Prepare rules to facilitate free trade and open market 6 Provide humanitarian assistance to the impoverished o Liberal Premise 1 Interstate cooperation can be encouraged by creating rues for peaceful interactions


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