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Week 6 Notes

by: Eunice

Week 6 Notes PAM 2030


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Mortality Fertility Transition
Population and Public Policy
Professor Sassler
Class Notes
population, PAM
25 ?




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This 5 page Class Notes was uploaded by Eunice on Saturday March 5, 2016. The Class Notes belongs to PAM 2030 at Cornell University taught by Professor Sassler in Spring 2016. Since its upload, it has received 23 views. For similar materials see Population and Public Policy in Political Science at Cornell University.

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Date Created: 03/05/16
PAM 2030 Sassler Spring 2016 March 1, 2016  iclicker: Hispanic paradox: relative to whites, latino/as are less wealthy but have higher life expectancy  Mortality o postponing death by preventing and curing disease  prevent disease from occurring/spreading when they do occur  vaccinations, clean water, sanitation, good nutrition  no physicians needed  examples: resurgence of measles due to anti vacc movement o flint’s lead poisoning  curing disease when people are sick  diagnostic technologic, drugs, skilled physicians o how to measure mortality improvements  life span: oldest age of human survival, potential  almost entirely a biological phenomenon  ex. Jeanne Louise Calment, 122 year old (oldest recorded)  longevity  ability to remain alive, resist death  measured by life expectancy (average expected age at death, currently 71y)  biological and social components o genetic characteristics (bio) o drugs, alcohol, smoking (soc)  people can live a long but not healthy life o mortality and morbidity relationship o social and bio factors and health and mortality  behaviors that shorten longevity:  poor diet: fatty foods, rapid weight gain/loss, excessive alcohol, smoking, drugs  lack of exercise: sedentary activities, sporadic excessive exertion  behaviors that increase longevity  regular exercise, daily breakfast, normal weight, moderate drinking, adequate sleep, no smoking o age and death  J shape curve  youngest and oldest have the highest mortality rates  decling infant death  dehydration is a huge cause  rectangularization of mortality  sudden drop off at a later life expectancy age o gender variations in mortality  women: lower probability of death o causes of death  communicable diseases  bacterial, viral, protozoan  maternal  prenatal conditions  noncommunicable diseases  injuries o “real causes” of death  tobacco, diet and activity, alcohol, microbial agents, toxic agents, disease, guns, violence o Measurements  use rates (for comparison and to see frequency of events)  crude rates: for entire population  E/P *K o E: number of events occurring among residents of a specific area over an accounting period o P: total population o K: constant, usually 1000 or 100,000  crude: don’t account for which people are at risk for the event o population composition matters o useful: easy to obtain the data (think: resources available to poor and less developed countries)  helps in funding, allocations  measures change over time  vs. specific rates: for subgroups  age specific death rate o 1000*(number of deaths in age group/number of people in group) o similar formulas can be refined for race, causes, gender,  pros: can control for age differences and show timing of events  cons: unwieldy lots of data points, difficult to summarize  other common refinements: cause specific, IMR  IMR: infant mortality rate o younger than one year old o a ratio, not a rate o pros: measures development o cons: dependent on stats and reporting; not a rate o general influences: low birthweight, preterm birth, poor prenatal care, low education of mother (less than HS), tobacco, sudden infant death syndrome o refine:  Neo-natal mortality rate (younger than 28 days)  endogenous factors (genetic make up)  post neonatal (between 4 to 52 weeks)  exogenous (external) o survival rate:  Lx+N/Lx March 3, 2016  iclicker: better education of women >> lowered fertility  fertility transition: o high to low (largely under women’s control) o “family building by fate” to “by design” o “not too early, not too close, not too many”  later start, earlier end o terms  fertility: actual birth performance  fecundity: (limits fertility) physiological ability to reproduce  usually greater than actual fertility  impaired fecundity: infertility, sterility  fecund women: can reproduce; sterile woman: can’t  controlling  controlling vs. limiting  controlling: when you star and spacing  limiting: stop/reduce o natural fertility, family planning  natural fertility: number children that can be born without birth control  max level of reproduction  theoretical figure  ~6 to 7 (which is a number that matches the high mortality rates)  hutterites (~11)  method of calculation  start young: menarche, ~15  end old: menopause: 49  no birth control  less than 9 months per pregnancy  18 months between end of one pregnancy and start of another  not deciding on a certain number/continuing through entire reproductive span  totals to about 1 kid per 2.2 years, summing to 16 kids o assuming no multiple births o historically  children are social security and labor source  kids = status and prestige for women  thus women had kids, early and often and abortion/contraception was highly stigmatized o social and economic factors  physiological and biological  marriage traditions  sexual mores  preferences  attitudes  employment and childcare opportunities o (Coale’s) requirements for lowered fertility  control (choice over options)  ideational change  READY  belief in clear advantages of lowered fertility and reason for having fewer kids  more live  invest more in each kid  moms can be healthier and better parents  WILLING  knowledge and mastery of effective contraception  how women get pregnant (when in cycle)  conception delay/prevention  methods: effective  ABLE o perspective (innovation diffusion and social strata)  2 theories of social stratification  culture innovation occurs in the higher social strata and trickles down to the lower strata as they imitate o privilege, edu, resources  rigid social stratification inhibits downward social mobility and diffusion of low fertility ideals o historical dealing with high fertility  infanticide, neglect, inattention (death)  fosterage of kid by another family who needs/can afford it  orphanage (abandon kid to be found by strangers)  Ospedale degli Innocenti (hospital of the innocents) (1400s – 1850)  baby dumbing o proximate determinants of fertility:  how and why we can control fertility  intercourse  forming/dissolution of secual unions o age of entry o permanent celibacy o time period spent after/between unions  divorce, separation, desertion  death of partner/spouse  exposure to intercourse o voluntary abstinence o involuntary abstinence (illness, temporary separation) o coital frequency  conception  exposure to contraception o fecundity/infecundity (voluntary/involuntary) o non/use of contraception  breastfeeding during the 6 months following birth o voluntary fecundity/infecundity (medical treatments, sterilization)  gestation  successful parturition  fetal mortality (involuntary: miscarriage, still births)  fetal mortality (voluntary: abortion)  4 major variables: permanent celibacy, infecundity/fecundity, contraception, fetal morality (voluntary)  indirect factors of fertility o education, income, gender differences (affects proximate determinants o Total Fertility Rate (TFR)  should be 2.1 (in developed countries)  replace the parents plus a bit more for those that don’t make it  “lowest low” <1.3 TFR


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