Chapter 4 notes
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This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Jocelyn Norfleet on Sunday September 13, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to FCS 226 at Illinois State University taught by Ui-Jeen Yu in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 12 views.
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Date Created: 09/13/15
Long term forecasting enables the executive to look far ahead begins early to position the product company and industry advantages for the future avoids obvious obstacles and problems To anticipate the future link breakthroughs in science technology and medicine to the course of demographic trends examine the likely results of those changes on the economy political system and environment Megatrends critical restructuring that defines a new direction for society Forecaster can find hints of developing trends by methodically sifting through documents and sources Critical restructuring that identifies the following megatrends move toward an information based economy dual compensations of high techquot and high touchquot products shift to global economy shift away from hierarchical structures to informal networks shift from an either or to a multiple option society Time frame decades Technique content analysis of 6000 local newspapers each month Method pinpoint trace and evaluate the important issues and trends Approach has four element time frame for predictions five years a decade or more techniques used for capturing signals methods used to interpret the signals and make the forecasts range of the forecasts general or restricted to certain market cohorts or industries Profiles of three forecasters working on long time lines Faith Popcorn iden tifies cocooning and other trends clanning fantasy adventure ergonomics female think Cultural trends come from 3 sources high culture low culture pop culture time frame decades Techniques for gathering signals scans 350 magazines trade journals newspapers monitor top TV shows first run movies plays ect shops stores in America and abroad for new products interviews 4000 consumers methods to interpret signals brainstorming interviewing experts Stan Davis increasing speed in communication and shrink time connectivity and online access eliminate distance as a barrier tangible attributes less important than intangible values Blur Time frame decades Techniques for gathering signals reading books newspapers ect discussion interview conference developing ideas that are powerful and playful Chris Anderson The long tail long term forecasting looks for cultural drift shifts in demographics changes in industry and market structure differences in consumer interests values and motivation breakthrough in technology and science changes in economic picture alteration in political cultural and economic alliances between countries media scan interviewing observation
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