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World Food Popul & Poverty

by: Tre Braun Sr.

World Food Popul & Poverty EEP 260

Tre Braun Sr.
GPA 3.85


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This 34 page Class Notes was uploaded by Tre Braun Sr. on Saturday September 19, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to EEP 260 at Michigan State University taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 49 views. For similar materials see /class/207783/eep-260-michigan-state-university in Agricultural & Resource Econ at Michigan State University.

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Date Created: 09/19/15
WEEK 8 HOW CAN ACCESS TO HUMAN RGHTS amp OPPORTUNITY BE EXPANDED F2008 Richard H Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University Human Rights A New International Agenda A nternational Human Rights 1 The StandardUniversal Declaration of Human Rights UN 1948 General Assembly set forth a common standard of achievement for all people and all nationsshall strive to promote respect for these rights and freedoms by progressive measures 0 Articles 30 identify basic human rights as long term goals including Political freedoms eg free speech right to assembly no exile Personal freedom eg no slavery right to join union choose wife Right to adeguate standard of livinghealth eg food clothing housing medical care social services Right to an education 39obs 2 o StrengthsNVeaknesses visionarypassed 59 years ago No direct legal force like Declaration of Independence Sets standards gives leverage to human rights advocates Most nations see rights as desirable social goals but not legally binding 2 Organizationsgroups that Monitor Human Rights Abuses 0 Commission on Human Rights created in 1947 Membership 53 countries Regional blocks selected representatives Fiveyearterms met once a year Historical rolecontribution Monitorinvestigates abuses Power lies in identifyingembarrassing violators Recent criticisms Once chaired by Libya members have included countries with poor human rights records China Zimbabwe Cuba Sudan Congo Saudi Arabia 3 USNGOs said UNCHR was increasingly politicalfailed to pass resolutions criticizing Zimbabwe Russia Cuba Sudan etc Others said US also violate human rights citing death penalty executing juveniles uses child soldiers has supported regimes that violate human rights many post9 I I violations prisoners at Guantanamo Bay wo charges etc Office ofthe UN High Commissioner for Human Rights established in 1993 to promoteprotect rights cited in the UDHR UNSG Annan proposed reforms established in 2006 limits membership to nations w good human rights records reports to the UNOHCHR 0 International NGOs grassroots organizations Increasingly important in putting pressure on abusing governments Have targeted private companies for failing to address laborenvironmental issues eg Shell Reebok Nike 0 US State Department Reports to Congress annually on human rights violators 500 pp Definition of human rights as a US foreign policy ob39ective has expande 1960sfocused on protecting people from government mistreatment Todayfocus reflects broader UDHR goals eg political rights resolve internal conflicts insure integrity of the person press freedom religious freedom womenchildren s rights workers rights and eliminate trafficking in persons slavery 27 million 800000 per year trafficked worldwide 18 20000 enter the US US govt s willingness to promote HR with sanctions has varied by Admin Carter strong advocate 2002 Country Cuba yes China no Ongoing debate Is a push or pull strategy best eg China amp VVTO greater engagement internal reforms5 3 Should All Countries Be Held To the Same Human Right Standards 0 Controversial lssues eg child labor women s rights fairwage Do universally accepted standards exist What should be the criteria for establishing a standard Should culturalreligious values be considered M should sets the standards Why aren t human rights criticismssanctions applied to all violators Countries protect theirfriendsallies Darfur ChinaNo Pressure for sanction influenced by domestic politics Cuba Criticisms made mainly against LDCs 0 Expanding human rights represents a historical trend to empower the powerless Evolving standard towards being more inclusive Growing acceptance of expanding choice for aH groups 6 Expanding Access to Opportunity 0 Much progress but still many concerns 0 g has had to address similar human rights issues that LDCs face today Women Vote New Zealand1893 26 before US US1920 19 Amend Political office few senators are women Admission to medical school will get married and stop working Glass ceiling few corporate top executives are women Disadvantage groupsMinorities African Americans Why is the South red Asians Land ownership restrictions in 1800s amp 1900s WW II Intern camps Japanese Americans Latinos Deported during the 1930s depression Native Americans Land stolen promised broken 7 Childrenchild labor Factory labor Farm labor Orphans sent west early 1900s 0 Expending human rights is a historical processover time new laws are enacted to protect the powerless in both DCs and LDCs o Future what human rights issues will your kids ask you Why eg universal access to health care gay marriage death penalty A Women 1 1 Some Indicators of NeglectDiscriminationDCs amp LDCs 1 0 Economic gapbig income gap 70 of the poor 0 Education gapless educated lower literacy rates o Empowerment gap less political representation Also 0 Have low social status compared to men 0 Less access to credit agricultural extension services 2 Some Concerns Raised by Human Rights Advocates 0 Domestic violence DCs also honor killings if wife is unfaithful 0 Female infanticide bride burning India 0 FGM W Africa Egypt 0 Forced marriages bride pricedowry polygamy Africa South Asia 0 Banned from schoolworkplace Taliban Afghanistan 0 Can t vote many Middle East countries or drive Saudi Arabia 0 Forced prostitutionsex tourism Thailand E Europe Brazil o No right to inherit property own land kidsdivorce Zimbabwe 0 Work in sweatshops long hours poor working conditions no benefits C America Asia Paradox Several LDCs have had a female presidentprime minister Previously India Israel Indonesia PakistanNow Philippines Liberia 3 Some Conseguences Why does lack of access to HR matter 0 Major individual amp societal impacts Direct impact on women Examples Impact on society Examples 4 Factors that Contribute to a Lack of Opportunity for Women including women in the US 0 Culturetraditional values 0 Religionvalues 0 Lack of political voicepower 5 Some Strategies For Meeting the Needs of Women 0 Promote legal reforms amp cultural changes LDCslocal activistsNGOs are working to Change laws Morocco banned polygamy Egypt gave right to divorce Senegal banned FGM LAClndiaMoroccoBrazilquota laws for political offices Jordon gave women the vote Pressure govtcompanies to provided benefitsopportunities Bangladesh labor activist Saudi Arabia greater work opportunities Punish human traffickersassist victims Thailand Philippines Change cultural valuesreinterpret religious texts Senegal create a social consensus Middle East Koran values women give equal rights Much progress but potential for a backlash Whyfl What s needed for true reform DCs NGOs amp legislators are pressing for Stiffer laws to prosecute their citizens who traffic in people participate in sextourism Sanctions against countries that traffic in people Note Some US companies are setting an example by hiringtraining women 0 Invest In social services that benefit women Education female teachers village schools relevant curriculum VHealth Services family planning rural clinics 0 Invest in addressing women39s householdagricultural needs Household needs Examples VAgricultural needs Examples 0 Develop programs that address women39s incomeearning needs VJob training livelihood skills Small loans eg Grameen Bank Wise Center 2 B Disadvantaged Groups the Landless Minorities Indigenous People amp Refugees Whowhere are they The rural landless Africa eg Zimbabwe S Africa L Amer Brazil 1 own90 of land Venez 10 own 97 Asia eg India Indonesia Minorities Low status social classes eg lower castes in India Members of minority religion eg Christians in Sudan Indigenous groups LA55 million LAC indigenous people eg Guatemala Bolivia Refugees 32 million distribution Victims of civil unrest eg AfghanIraq Darfur Palestine 1Some Indicators of NeglectDiscrimination o Lover income higher incidence of poverty 0 Higher infant mortality rates poorer health 0 Less access to education jobs heath services Some Concerns Raised by Human Rights Advocates 0 Limited access to land due to colonial heritage rural landless Latin America Spanish land grants Africa eg Zimbabwe South Africa colonial policies 0 Insecure land right Indigenous people in LA Iand grabs for timber oil plantations 0 Human rights abuses Indigenous groups in LA refuges minorities 0 Limited access to social services health education Indigenous groups refugees minorities o Neglected by development projects Indigenous groups minorities 3 Some Conseguences Why does lack of access to HR it matter 0 Political instability eg Zimbabwe Peru Bolivia Middle East 0 Individual and societal loss 1quot 4 Some Factors that Contribute To a Lack of Opportunity for Disadvantaged Groups 0 Traditionculture 0 Lack of political powervoice 5 Some Strategies for Meeting the Needs of Disadvantaged Groups 0 Political action Organize the disadvantaged to increase their political influence NGOs grassroots organizations Strengthen democratic institution legal amp political systems 0 Legal remedies enact laws to end legal discrimination promote affirmative action to reduce inequality lndia affirmative action lower casts women Gandhi 1940 s jobs for untouchables video clip 6 min Brazil affirmative action for AfroBrazilians Why are affirmative actionracial preferences needed 0 Targeted programs to meet the needs ofthe disadvantaged eg Brazilland reform Fome Zero food distribution program lndia gt social spending Rural Employment Guarantee Act microcredit programs cellphone banking C Youth 1 Legal Framework 0 UN Convention on the Rights of Children 1990 Similar to UDHR but focuses on kids not ratified by US Sets standards for Eliminating child labor child prostitution serving in armed forces sale of children Providing access to social services health education etc 2 Some Concerns Raised by Human Right Advocates 0 Child labor especially bonded labor 0 Child soldiers 300000 kids forced recruitment 0 Child traffickingsex tourism ECPAT 0 Street kidsorphans AAAA vvvv 3 Some Consequences Why does a lack of Access to HR Matter 0 Lifelong damage to healthAIDS 0 Loss of selfesteem 0 Loss of opportunity to attend school o Delinquencycrime 4 Some Factors that Contributing to a Lack of Opportunity for Children o LDCs Poverty How Civil conflicts wars Lack of government will in some LDCs Why Cultural values Examples oDC s Demand for cheap productsservices in DCs Lack of public awareness in DCs I didn t know 5 Some Strategies for Meeting the Needs of Children 0 LDCs Enforce existing laws Support local initiatives NGO to rescue amp rehabilitate victims Increase access to education NGOs governments via After school program Brazil s slums Reduce gender gap in education Ethiopia Free education Kenya eliminated primary school fees Public libraries Nepal Kenya s camel library Innovative initiatives in higher education S Africa 0 International Organizations NGOs ILO VVTO Pressure LDCs to enforce existing laws improve conditions 0 DCsCitizens in DC Pressure governments to enforce existing laws pass new laws Pressure private firms to address human rights issues improve working conditions 18 WEEK 2 WHAT IS DEVELOPMENT F2008 Richard H Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University What Are CausesSolutions to Food Population Poverty Problems 0 Experts Disagree Can we feed future populationsare famines inevitable Are there too many people in the world ls global warming a real problem New Orleans 0 Why do expertspublic disagree Is anyone objective Rely oninfluenced by different Facts Standards rigor Experiences eg Allende Chile coup You Values eg religion 0 How do we know what s the Truth Critically assess facts Be open to new ideasanswers Globalization A What is Globalization 0 A shrinking world eg Kenya Massai Indonesia anklong 0 Sense of boundaries dissolving a woven world Zwinge o Foryou Def Mega trend increasing economic interdependence blending of cuItu res eg McDonalds in India Sesame Street in S Africa Hooters in China El Economic Aspects IFPRIBezanson J Trade integration gtimportsexports tariff reductions J Increased capital mobility foreign investment new ruIes J Rapid technological change amp diffusion sciencecommunications J Rise in global consumerism rising incomes increased demand 3 Some Examples 0 0 US imports J Food gt50 imported Mexico amp CAmerica Chile Brazil J Cut flowersroses Colombia J Clothing C America Asia Africa J Toys 80 from China J Mfg goods Japan Europe LDCs increasing US Exports future market growth will be in LDCsI why J Agriculture corn soybeans wheat worldwide J Frozen chickens Philippines J Hightech goods worldwide Jobs Outsourcing J Textiles US to LDCs initial phase Backoffice jobs US to India others countriesExampes 0 Services Hitech jobs from US to China amp India increasing threat But not just from US to LDCs China umbreIIas in India 4 J J J 0 Capital Direct investment eg Honda in US US worldwide Franchises eg McDonalds115 countries Pollo Campo Joint ventures eg Home Depot WalMart Multinational corporations corporate states 0 Monetaryregional integration EuroEU E Africa CAFTA tightly linked monetary policies MeaningNVhy o Other What is the driving forces for economic integration El Cultural integration culture is constantly changing an interchange Some Examples 0 Music LDC to US world music Paul SimeonGraceland US to the world CD 5 0 TV MTV seen in gt80 countries VCNN seen worldwide Ghana 2000 election Satellite dishes has impacted politics in the Middle East Sesame Street gt19 countries with their own version VAI Jazeera Middle Eastern reality TV but modified 0 Other Not iust more access to information but also new values B Worldwide globalizations has created a Revolution of Rising Expectations 0 Meaning People expect a better life in the future Consequences of failure 0 What do people in LDCs want for themselves esp their kids 0 Reasons for rising expectations Rapid worldwide shift from agrarian to industrialized societies Demonstration effect Dallas rich American C But Is Globalization economic amp cultural integration Really New 0 Previous waves of globalization amp their impacts Explorersmissionaries1500s Impacts gt Crops acorns to corn beans soybean wheat rice gt Religion convert started schools in Africa Asia LAC European immigrants to the US early 1900s MeSweden Impacts WWI WWII Vietnam Impacts Recent immigrants Hispanics Africans Asians E Europeans Impacts 8 0 So what s new Rate of change Countries affected D What has Made Rapid Globalization Possible cumulative impact Knowledgescience amp technology Examples xxxx 0 New global rules amp regulation esp since 1990 Examples Z w 0 Increased global wealth WhyHow Z 0 New Institutionsorganizations esp since WW II what how UN System eg WHO FAO UNICEF HCR World BankInternational Monetary Fund foreign aid World Trade Organization International Agricultural Research System Other 1 E ls Globalization GoodBad 0 Positive aspects Examples J J J KKKK 0 Negative aspects Examples J KKK J J J 0 So Is globalization good or bad 0 Some key concernsglobal challenges that must be 39 39 39 J Who has benefited most between amp within countries J What new global rules are neededfairvs free trade J How can governments help people adjust to changes F Competing in a Global Economy 0 What skills will You as future leaders Need to be competitive in the global economy Examples J J J J o What does the US Need to do lessons from China J J Ill Why Should m Be Concerned About Development in the Poor Countries A Global Dilemma 0 Increasing demand shrinking resources 0 Greatest problemlooking beyond immediate concerns to future needs being a world citizen B Driving Forces Population amp Technology 0 Pre1800slow population low technology gtonly local impacts 0 Todayhigh population high technology gtglobal impacts 0 Future 2050population will 2X world economy will grow 510X 0 Evidence of increasing pressure on the global environment Global Commons 0 Growing concernglobal sustainabilig is at risk We must not endanger the prosperity of future generations 13 C What Global Challenges Threaten ProsperityNVorld Peace in An lnterdependent World WhereSpillover impacts 0 Terrorism 0 Refugeesillegal immigration 0 Conflictspolitical instability 0 Economic instabilityinterlinked financial markets 0 Global warmingenvironmental degradation 0 Health crises 0 Global crime 0 Coming resource shortages Other 0 Does US have a selfinterest to help address these challenges 1quot Root Cause of Global Challenges 0 Poverty increasingly recognized as the key issue Tony Blair We can t have a world with a few rich many poor Chirac G8 must prepare joint responses to shared challenges 0 Why are developing countries poormany facing politically conflict lnternal causes External causes 0 Reducing povertyachieving sustainable development will require new approaches greater commitment new creative solutions eg smart products 15 IV What Is Development A Images Africa Asia Latin America 0 Brainstorm 0 Sources of images 0 True for all in region 0 Video Voices of the Poor B Terms Describing Groups of Nations 0 Third world first second E Countries other than W Europe US Canada Japan Australia 0 Developedindustrialized vs developing countries LDCs How would you characterize these groups of nations Developed G8 the North Developing LDCs the South C How great are the differences 0 Developed DCs vs developing counties LDCs 0 Among developing new term emerging countries 0 Within developing amp developed countries Dual economies India Brazil South Africa 0 Material World What do people have Contrast ls only difference a lack of material goods gt Many people in LDCs lack access to what else 0 Are people in rich countries happier Key to happiness noneconomic familycommunity 1 perday in Malawi 17 0 An Ominous sigh growing inequality between developing vs developed countries amp within countries World Income Low middle high income countries Increasing growth in inequality of assets 19601999 Richest 20 vs poorest 20 of world s population 1960 301 1990 601 1999 741 Richest 200 individuals income income of bottom 40 24 billion poorest Richest 1 of consumes consume the same as the bottom 50 Bill Gatesnet worth gt GDP of the 80 poorest countries 0 So what D How Is Development Measured 0 Traditional definition economic growth make the pie larger Increase in GNP GNIcapita value of goods amp services 0 Mixed Success Rapid growth in some countries esp China India Brazil Percent of world population living in extreme poverty lt1day has declined greatly but varies by region Africa vs Asia WB 1990 29 vs 1999 23but still 115 billion Recent progress in Africa but great diversim among countries 0 But what s missing in the traditional definition of development J J J V J 19 E Today development is considered to be a broader concept than simply economic growth Sears E quotcreating the conditions forthe realization of human potentialquot deals with how the economic pie is cut amp improvements in peoples daily lives 0 New definitiongoals of development includes Growth in GNPcapita necessary not sufficient Improving food security E quotability of households to acquire adequate diet all yearquot Reducing poverty Avoiding disrupting cultural values Reducing inequality Encouraging creativity enterprises Increasing political amp economic opportunity Sustainability insuring our children39s future x x x x x o Broadergoals of development captured in International Declaration of Human Rights 1950s Right to good job education food civil rights health services free expression etc Most countries have ratified IDHR see as long term goals F What are some broader measures of development 0 World Bank s social indicators much progress Life expectancy literacy doctors1000 infant mortality daily calories etc o lndices of Development rank each country UN Human Development Index E country s achievements in terms of life expectancy educational attainment and adjusted real income Human Freedom Index Gender Empowerment Index 0 Why are these indices useful What are their weaknesses 21 G The Development ProblemHow do societies achieve these goals 0 Political system amp government policies reflect society s goals amp strategies to achieve these goals 0 Historically countries have followed two types of development strategies Govtdirected development 0 USSR most LDCs after achieving independence from colonial powers Market economydirected private sector development 0 First Western countries but now a mega trend through out the world Transition from govtdirected to market economydirected development has been more difficult than expected eg Russian Federation Eastern Europe Central Asia 0 Economists now recognize that good governance is a KEY to successful development private sector can t do it alone H Is There a Need for a New Development Model Some Criticisms of the Marketdriven Development Model 0 Buarque Let s Stop Forgetting Brazil Western modelwhich defines material wealth as main goal has led to wealth concentration corruption abandoning social investments foreign debt loss oftraditional values Government must guarantee everyone access to essentials goods amp servicesfood health services public transport a dwelling safe water sanitation 0 Lula de Silva Brazil s president Globalization must be altered to make it more friendly to the global south LDCs must be allowed to play a greater role in setting trade and other policies that affect LDCs 23 o Lampman Limits of the Global Economy Religious leadersconcerned about globalization s failure to fulfill economic promises undermining of cultural values emphasis on secularmaterialistic values shortterm focus maximize profits now What Countries Should Participate in Global Decisionmaking 0 Increasing call for global reforms esp by developing countries G8 vs G20 Who should be members World BanklMF Who makes all ofthe decisions WTO Who sets the agenda V Addressing Global Challenges 0 0 Should the rich countries give priority to addressing global concerns including widespread poverty Consider spillover impacts of a lack of development gt It s in our enlightened selfinterest to assist LDCs reduce poverty which breeds terrorism amp environmental degradation Rich countries have a moral obligation to assist gt Greatest capacity to assist gt DCs profess humanitarian values commitment to freedom amp democracy Can the US Acting Alone Solve the World s Problems Dangers of unilateralism gt Are US valuesvirtues unique universal gt Can we successfully do it alone gt Must askWhat are the full costs of unilateralism US s role as a world leader is declining due to gt Rise of emerging economies as powerful world players gt Preoccupation with war on terrorism has contribute to neglecting other concernsregional problems importance to other countries US needs to rebuild its position of world leadership based on a strategy that embraces values of human equality and mutual respect for all people insure that the US remains economically amp diplomatically strong eg invest in education infrastructure science V V 0 Key lssue facing the US other DCs and LDCs How can the world best address our global concerns Do rich amp poor countries have the political will needed to successfully address our global challenges ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS 2001 GROUP COUNTRY High Income ECONOMIC INDICATOR SOCIAL INDICATORS Rank GNPCapita Life Expectancy Infant Mortality lt5yrs1000 Rangegt9206 Mean25 700 Switzerland 1 36940 80 6 Japan 2 35990 81 5 Norway 3 35530 79 5 United States 4 34 870 77 9 Denmark 5 31090 76 6 Israel 16710 78 9 largest recipient of US foreign aid 27 m m SOCIAL COUNTRY INDICATOR INDICATORS GNPCapita Life Expectancy Infant Mortality Middle Income Saudi Arabia Argentina Mexico Poland Brazil South Africa Dom Republic Thailand Colombia Russian Fed Guatemala Philippines Honduras China lt5yrs1000 Range7469205 Mean1850 7 7230 3 23 6960 74 22 5540 73 36 4240 73 11 3060 68 39 2900 48 79 2230 67 47 1970 69 33 1910 72 23 1750 65 19 1670 65 49 1050 69 39 900 66 44 890 70 39 GROUP ECONOMIC SOCIAL COUNTRY INDICATOR INDICATORS GNPCapita Life Expectancy Infant Mortality lt5yrs1000 Low Income Rangelt475 Mean430 Indonesia 680 66 51 Zimbabwe 480 40 116 Haiti 480 53 111 India 460 63 88 Kenya 340 47 120 Mozambique 210 42 200 Sierra Leone 140 39 267 Ethiopia 100 43 179 Foreign Exchange Rat Indonesian Rupiahs per US 16000 m mm m mean mmmmmmummmnumumwm um n HuhI39m mm m nit Immunequot mm mquot Distribution 0fW0rld s Gross National Income 2001 Cate o GNIca ita Low 430 lt745capita Middle 1850 7469205capita igh 27710 gt 9205capita US 34870 GNI 34 156 810 314 Po ulation 409 435 156 46 WEEK 5 CAN THE POPULATION EXPLOSION BE CONTROLLED F2008 Richard H Bernsten Agricultural Economics Michigan State University Trends in World A PreModern High birth rate 401000 High death rate 401 000 Population stable to 1500s life expectancy25 years B Modern Increasingly rapid growth 0 18501950 m years to double 12525 billion 0 19501987 yrs to double 2550 billion Current population 6728 billion US Census Bureau 10508 Future population growth projections Scenarios assume different future fertilitydeath rates 205092 billion medium scenario 1974 est 1012 billion 210040 billion and remain stable or decline UN But AIDS rate gt25 in some SubSaharan African countriesll Declining life expectancyZimbabwe 19707558 Now43 yrs Rise of shortgevity in Sub Saharan Africa Zim aspirations Key Concepts Replacement fertility level RFL21 kidswoman Zero population growthin long run countries will achieve ZPG after RFL is reached But population will increase after RFL is achieved 0 Population momentum3 billion people lt 24 yrs old 46 of world s current population C What Causes Rapid Population Growth Key Determinants Death rate Migration rate o UShistorical amp current source of population growth Early 1900s Europe Now Africa LAC Asia Increase in illegal immigration Mexico CA amp Brazil Immigrants in past 30 years equal 13 of all US immigrants o Europeimmigration backlash How to reduce illegal immigrants Total fertility rate TFR higher TFR more rapid population growth Total of children a woman has between age 1549 Demographic Transition Model Shows how nations with high pop growth achieve lower rates 1SThi ferthi death rates 2 d low deathhi fert rates 3 d low fert low death rates Developed countries 0 Death rates amp birth rates have fallen gradually since 1850s Why 0 o o 0 O O LDCs 0 Death rates declined rapidly 1930s1970s to 201 000 Health sanitation improvements Food production technology 0 birth rates fertility remained high 401000 o Resultspopulation explosion 0 Then birth rates fertility declined in 1970s DT Countm 1965 TFR 20002005 TFR India 62 30 exico 70 25 21 by 2050 Global TFR 195050 27 UN Pro39ections 2005 for number of childrenwomen 1519 yrs World 25 Africa41 Asia24 LA21 NA20 Europe16 Today Worldwide 0 lt21 in 52 countries44 of world population 0 lt21 in 12 LDCs 0 Significant decline in many Catholic amp Islamic countries 0 Resultsslower world population growth rate D Trends in Rate of World Population Growth Growth rate peaked in early 1960s204 per year Current rate12 per year 20002005 Showstopper ll Projected rate034 20452050 Growth rate is declining RAPIDLY in all regions except Africa Two Stories Population Growth Rateyear 0 High income countries 07 pop implosion Spain 0 Middle income 09 great success 0 Low income 18 some success Population Mythuncontrolled population growth E major differences exist between counties High population growth rates 17 countries gt25 Angola Benin Chad DR Congo Guatemala Jordon Kuwait Madagascar Niger Saudi Arabia Uganda W BankGaza Yemen 6 Successful LDCs lt 2 WhereNVh Bolivia Burundi Haiti 19 Cambodia Egypt Namibia Venez 18 Bangladesh El Salvador Colombia Thailand 17 Algeria Costa Rica Mexico 16 DR Ecuador Panama India Peru 15 Mexico 14 Indonesia Sri Lanka 13 Brazil Chile 12 Tunisia Vietnam Zambia 11 Argentina Zimbabwe 10 China 07 Westernindustrialized countries low population implosionll US 10 Canada 09 Portugal Spain 05 Belgium 04 Denmark Sweden 03 UK 02 Germany 01 Italy 01 Poland 03 Russia 05 Ukraine 08 Bulgaria 09 ALL of Europe below RFL Europe the Gray Continent Implications of doubling time o Worldfewer years required to double population reversal 0 Major regional differences old data examples only ow Europe 270 yrs g Africa 22 yrs Average fertility rate 61 0 Pop growth paradox most rapid growth in poorest countries7 ll Distribution of World39s Population A Largest Countries Most Important for Determining Future Population 5 countries 48 of World s Population China 21 India 16 US 5 Indonesia 3 Brazil 3 10 countries account for 60 of annual increase 19952000 India China Pakistan Indonesia Nigeria US Brazil Bangladesh Mexico Philippines B Distribution of World s Population Shares Is Changing Dramatically 98 of projected world pop growth in LDCs 20002005 Africa s share of world population is increasing rapidly See regional and resulting shares Region 1950 2000 2050 Change1950vs2050 13 21 Africa 9 gt140 Asia 55 60 58 5 Europe 22 12 7 Declining LAC 7 9 9 29 N Amer 7 5 5 Declining Note 1950 Europe 3 X Africa 2050 Europe 13 Africa Why Future LDC s Population Share 0 1950 67 o 2000 83 o 2050 89 Political and economic Implications o Impact of Current Population Trends in LDCs A Rapidly Aging Population Po uation ramids ExamplesUS Spain Pakistan LDCs cone shaped Pakistan DCs rectangular Sweden Age distribution explains differences in pyramids 1975 Region lt15 yrs gt65 yrs Future Africa 45 0 3 0 LDCs 37 4 DCs 22 11 By 2050 world s old gt60 yrs population will increase from 10 to 21 Consequences for LDCs 0 Must invest in kidseducation child health creating jobs 0 Other challengesproblems Consequences for DCs and LDCs in the future JapanEurope workers retired now 31 20501 1 0 Facing a labor shortage increasingly dependant on migrants Spain s amp other EU country s solution 0 Must invest in meeting the needs of the elderlystraining social securityretirement health care 0 Other B Rapidly Growth in Urban Population Began with Industrial Revolution in EuropeUS in early 1800s Now urban areas in LDCs are growing rapidly Region 1950 2000 2030 LA 42 76 85 Africa 15 37 54 Asia 17 37 55 Now 2007 most people live in citiesurban areas o 1990majority of world population rural o 200021 cities gt 10 m people 17 in LDCs o 2030urban population will double rural o 215 century90 of population growth in cities Growing problems common to all LDC megacities 0 Water sanitation solid wastes pollution o Unemployment poverty housing shortages 0 Potential for civil violence radical religious fundamentalism Priorities for improving the lives of urban dwellers 0 Reduce population growth among residents family planning 0 Improve education healthcare sewerage housing clean water transportation job creation 0 Greater national amp international investment in improving the cities 19702000 aid for cities only 4 of total international aidl2 IV ls Rapid Population Growth Really A Problem A Pessimists predictors of doom Malthus 1789 Predicted pop growth would exceed food production capacity Saw famine positive amp postponing marriage preventative as only checks on population growth Didn39t foreseeWhat Ehrlich biologist Population Bomb 1968 1989 Renewed Malthus warnin s Promoted contraception as solution Flavin Worldwatch Institute Environmental change resource constraints amp declining quality of life as check on population B Optimists Richman Population not a problem Human welfare is improvinglife expectancy infant mortality food availability nutrition Population growth promotes progress via specializationdivision of labor which raises productivity amp income economies of scale Simon economist The Ultimate Resource 1980s More people leads to more possibility of innovation What if Einstein s mother had practiced family planning C Current View Population growth puts pressure on land water biodiversity resources gt threatens sustainability amp slows development Development slows population growths Why Slower population growth promotes development Why Carming capacity concept def population vs available resources But population growth in LDCs is only partly responsible for worldwide environmental degradation DC s have greater impact on environment than LDC s population growth due to consumption richest 2085 of consumption V What are the Prospects for Further Reducing Fertility in LDC A Determinants of TFR Direct 4marriage age birth interval abortion contraception Indirect 5education job location social status religion B Why Are Fertility Rates High in SOME LDCs Must replace society o Conditioned by high mortality Need labor kids wealth 0 Girls for housework boys forfarm work Must insure future security 0 Kids support old folks Cultural values 0 Norms kids desired birth gt status Shona mom s name 0 Preference forsons especially in Asia China India Note China amp India male preference is skewing gender mix Flow C Why Does Development Reduce Fertility Reduces need for many births 0 Less infant mortality less births needed Reduces need for labor 0 gt urban need less labor 0 gt technology labor less valuable Improves security of elderly 0 Social security systems provide safety net Reduces desire for sons 0 With gt educationopportunities female kids have gt value D What Methods Exist for Reducing Fertility Traditionalabstinence breastfeeding spacing induced abortions contraceptive foods malefemale condom Moderncondom pill 1960 loop sterilization A E Ho J x x x w Are Govts amp NGOs in LDCs Promoting Family Planning Publicizing benefits of small families amp providing information o Traditionalsong drama 0 Modern TVsoaps radio plays billboards Improving access to contraceptives via heath clinics o Offering choices notjust one method 0 Subsidizing cost Increasing social pressure 0 Requiring permission to have a child China 0 Educating men large familymachovirility 0 valuesattitudes change slowly Offering monetary incentivesdisincentives 0 Bonuses for sterilization previously in India 0 Fining couples for having too many kids previously in China Passing laws related to marriage 0 Minimum age for marriage Tunisia China F J J J Have Family Planning Programs Been Successful Great increase in contraceptive use since 1960 Contraceptive use reduces fertility rate NEW Evidence of Declining TFRs Results of surveystudy in LDCs N300000 women 0 Success in parts of Africa since 1970s Kenya 36 Zimbabwe 18 Botswana 26 0 Most women use family planning LDCs60 DCsgt70 0 Most LDC women want fewer kids 0 Great unmet demand20 of LDC amp 50 African women 0 Meeting demand would reduce LDC s growth to l6year 18


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