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Glob Warm Weather, ClimSocie

by: Verna Brekke

Glob Warm Weather, ClimSocie CLIM 101

Marketplace > George Mason University > Climate Dynamics > CLIM 101 > Glob Warm Weather ClimSocie
Verna Brekke
GPA 3.76

Jagadish Shukla

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Jagadish Shukla
Class Notes
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This 33 page Class Notes was uploaded by Verna Brekke on Monday September 28, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to CLIM 101 at George Mason University taught by Jagadish Shukla in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 22 views. For similar materials see /class/215043/clim-101-george-mason-university in Climate Dynamics at George Mason University.

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Date Created: 09/28/15
Global Warming The known the unknown and the unknowclble Barry A Klinger Jagadish Shukla George Mason University GMU Institute of Global Environment and Society IGES January 2008 George Mason University U N I V E R 5 l TV George Mason University Department of Climate Dynamics Understanding and Predicting Climate and it s Variability PhD in Climate Dynamics Some key research components Atmospheric Dynamics Physical Oceanography LandAir Interactions Predictability Climate Modeling wwwclimategmuedu Want to explore more Climate Dynamics classes include This semester CLIM 759 Climate Change graduate course 14 week version of today s lecture 7201000pm Tue Innovation Hall rm 338 Fall 2008 NEW COURSE CLIM 101 Weather Climate and Global Society Open to all undergraduates Satisfies General Education Requirement for Science nonlab Iniergovemmentail Panel on Climate Change iPCC IPCC established by WMO and UNEP to assess scienti c technical and socioeconomic information for understanding climate change its impacts and options for adaptation and mitigation Working Group I The Physical Science Basis Working Group II Impacts Adaptation and Vulnerability Working Group III Mitigation of Climate Change Largest number of US scientists nominated by the US Govt Highest skepticism US Govt Center of OceaneLande f quot Atmosphere studies E a gt I I Working Group smegnt f3 7 1h 3quoty Report of the Interg Change mo r m n r mmww Some things we know about global warming Obsmwa ons quot httpIenwikipediaorglwikilG reenhouse Models httpIlwwwcislucaredulmainlcomputershtm 390 Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 380 Direct measurements Measured at Mauna Loa Hawaii I 39 139 r quot139 39 7370 002 and other trace gases are I v quot quot7360 increasing quot7350 I Annual Cycle 340 Global mean surface temperature increasing I quot quotquotquotquotquot quot quot33 4 320 Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 1960 1970 1980 1900 2000 310 06 u 4 DeaneEs Celsius aboveerbelew BID yearquot globe temperature 02 0 390 u Iquot I I II I I I II III I I ll l39 III N lm I39ll v 414 I I I I 435 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 18160 13313 1900 192039 1940 195039 1980 2000 Carbon dioxide concentration ppmv Natural forcings that could cause warming do not seem to have correct strengthpattern IIIIIIIIIIIIlIIAI 1368 1367 1366 1365 1364 SOLAR IRRADIANCE w m2 100 doy smooth 1363 daily dam IyI ly39 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Frohlich and Lean 2005 Air and sea warming are widespread Annual Trend 1979 to 2005 g 5 I e i1 K I 1 j v 5 k h I 1 l l I lt 39S 1 O I9 41 0 I5 O393 OI U B 7 09 1 1 gt13 E C 13 quotc per decade 0 39 8 0 0 3 250 C1 gt 9 3 1 20 0 9 A 500 m o 2 01090 E E 3 60 3 S 3 750 5 E a E 4 E Glacier mass balance global 805 1000 U I 39 1950 1970 1000 1900 2000 1250 I Y6 1500 I I I I I I I 39I I 80 60 40 2t 0 20 4o 60 80 a e titud Fig 39 FAQ 41 Fig 1 and 53 Proxy measurements Recent increases are unprecedented at least since end of the last Ice Age around 10000 yr ago Olrborl plum ppm 400 u u a sun MIquot 0 TlmIOutorc mos 250 Concentrotwons of Greenhouse Gases Horn 0 to 2005 r r r r Carbon mamas 001 Methane Cm Nitrous 0x1de N10 1500 From FAQ 21 Fig 1 4 2000 2000 1800 1600 1400 Evidence that since last ice age temperatures were stable Temperature anomaly quotc W 19614990 I0 05 Proxy for temperature Proxy fo i39ce39 volu39m 600 500 300 200 100 Time before 2005 thousands of years and that northern hemisphere temperature is hitting record values 300 MJZUDB Ecszooe CA2noe MEH1999 JBB1 993 3052001 RMO20D5 02005 b NH temperature reconstructions r r 800 1 000 1 200 years 1 400 r r l 600 1 800 From Figs 64 and 610 Benthic 5130 Van Mechanism for increasing C02 and other gases in atmosphere PEOPLE Absorbed by Abso bed 3 r Absorbed aimosphere by ocean on iand u 5 5 33102 39 II b by g CO2 emissions Gigatons of Carbon Gt C IPCC 2007 Mechanism for gases to raise temperature greenhouse effect carbon dioxide methane etc absorb outgoing radiation make atmosphere warmer for given solar radiation Rammed nut in spam Inmmi n 3 solar r adiatiuzn Influence of greenhouse gases on radiation direct effects But indirect effects are just as important Water vapor is the main greenhouse gas Warmer air holds more water vapor Warming from CO2 etc 9 more water vapor 9more greenhouse effect 9 more warming Warming 9 less ice 9 less sunlight reflected into space 9More sunlight absorbed by Earth 9 more warming Warming 9 changes in atmospheric circulation 9 Changes in atmospheric circulation 9 changes in evaporation and precipitation 9 changes in clouds 9 Warming 9 changes in ocean circulation 9Changes in heat transport from equator to poles 9 Warming 9 changes in chemistry and ecoystems 9 Use numerical models to understandpredict thl is a Climate Model Divide atmosphere ocean and land surface into a 3D grid latitude longitude height At each gridpoint equations describing physical laws predict rate of change of Temperature velocity humidity etc Calculate how quantities change time hours for weather years to centuries for climate With Time Steps of 10 Minutes Use Supercomputers m u N I v E R s I 1v Models give insight into Climate Sensitivity how climate responds to a given forcing Future greenhouse forcing can only be guessed at Depends on what you me and billions of other people do A few forcing scenarios are used to drive models C02 Emissions Scenarios 1990 Emissions SRES FossilFuel Scenarios V LandUse Changes y i mmmm m H mm mm M Milt 9w m Mn mm zuzs zusu Global Warming Model Predictions for 21st Century B1 20802099 A2 7 4390 7 A1E j A 1 B1 39W 8 3o L Constanl composition M OS 7 Commitment 39 20th century f 39 7 6 2 0 r M M 7 3 v 10 a 7 t I m 47 g 21 17 12 6 2 1 16 10 2100 2200 2300 Year Figs 104 and 108 l I l O 05 1 15 2 25 3 35 4 45 5 55 6 65 7 75 Northern Hemisphere V nter Preciitation A1 B 208099 Northern Hemisphere Summer EIIIIUE mm dayq LB 0 6 U 4 0 2 0 02 04 06 08 Fig 109 Should we trust model results A Test Can reproduce recent climate Volcanos 1111111 l l lquot lv llquot observed global mean nearsurface temperature 00 climate models 05 i I i average of climate models 7 Pinatubo 7 7 Santa Maria Agung E1 Chichon 10 7 l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l l I l l l V 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year FAQ 81 Fig1 Contours observed annual mean surface sea or nearsurface land Temperature Colors Difference between model average and observations x 60 I a L a so 120 um I 80 1 20 4 2 u 2 4 l quot0 a 3 3 5 Annual Average Precipitation Observed MultiModel Average Fig 85 150 2m Temperature anomaly 39c Observed DecadalMean Surface Temperature 595 Range of model simulations solar amp volcano forcing only Including greenhouse gas changes Global l Global Land l Global Ocean 1 39u x P a v 0 a x rampamum anomaly 39C P P Temperature anomaly 39c 390 w 0 m l 9 o l 1900 w 1950 Year 1 900 x 1950 Year 1900 x 1950 Year Observed DecadalMean Surface Temperature 595 Range of model simulations solar amp volcano forcing only Including greenhouse gas changes Tampcmturl annmaly Tunneratme anumilv 395 3 iquot z g 2 g n a n 1 5 i 1 19m 5 1 g 0 El i a lt g m E x 2 E05 g 00 E 2 19 Tlmplnlura lnnmlly 3912 i VMV39LEJM 11002 30d Differences between models can be revealing We are still improving models More accurate models seem 5u To predict bigger future warming Surface temperature change C nn sn mo 150 2on relative entropy model error in simulating current climate J Shukla T DeISoIe M Fennessy J Kinter and D Paolino Geophys Research Letters 33 2006 The Unknowns Predictability of models for small regions and extreme events Change in the frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones Timing for complete elimination of the Greenland ice sheet sea level will rise by 7 meters Antarctic ice sheet too cold gain mass due to more snowfall The probability of large abrupt climate change Level of warming for extinction of species 15 25 C 20 30 gt 4 C gt 40 Carbon uptake by the oceans The immediate cause of the heatwave was a persistent high pressure center over Northwest Europe There is currently no evidence that human in uence on climate makes such circulation patterns more likely summer 2003 temperatures relative Land Surface Temperature difference K GEORGE to 20002004 Ms 75 O 5 392 1930 1940 1950 196K 19K 1930 1993 2000 2010 Year PDI Total power dissipated annually by tropical cyclones Emanuel Nature 2005 39m A39mm39mm39mb Rate of Change cmdecade Sea Level Rise from Global Warming IPCC 1851 cm during 21st Century May be underestimate Observations Ice dynamics poorly understood Empirical Model Projection not compatible with obs Sea Level cm a Sea Level Change cm a 1680 1900 1920 1940 1960 mm 2000 900 1950 2000 2050 2100 Year ear Rahmstorf 2007 South Florida Shoreline Change after a 1Meter Rise in Sea Level Areas shown in red are subject to inundation after a 1meter rise in sea eve Soun umuom Iron use agim am Wuquot us kadw my Potential impact of sealevel rise on Bangladesh Today Tom populaliun 112 Minion Tom land area 134000 krer 15 m Impact Toml populaiinn a cmd I7 Mlluan 15 1ch and area evened 22000 km 15 gm uNEPMlDammeMDuum MWva MW Hummus mm mm c httpIlwwwgridanolclimatelvital133htm WHERE WILL vnu am Will the ocean s overturning circulation change H overturning cooler THE DAY AFTERquot TEIMEIRRDW Weaken 9 high latitudes minIIanwlkmamumlelaIhejqJnerjnrmnnw We know Modest 20th century climate change Due to human greenhouse gases 21t century climate change will be much bigger unless perhaps strong action is taken We suspect but don t know for sure that Climate change will have some negative impacts oMore strong hurricanes Loss of lowlying coastal areas to ocean Changes to rainfall patterns expanding some deserts We don t know if will be much strongerfaster changes than expected lce sheet collapse


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