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Military Operations Research I

by: Mafalda Ebert

Military Operations Research I OR 651

Marketplace > George Mason University > Operations And Info Mgmt > OR 651 > Military Operations Research I
Mafalda Ebert
GPA 3.9

Timothy Anderson

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Timothy Anderson
Class Notes
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This 9 page Class Notes was uploaded by Mafalda Ebert on Monday September 28, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to OR 651 at George Mason University taught by Timothy Anderson in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 67 views. For similar materials see /class/215266/or-651-george-mason-university in Operations And Info Mgmt at George Mason University.

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Date Created: 09/28/15
OR 651 COST ANALYSIS Presented by George Mason University and the Institute for Defense Analyses COURSE OUTLINE Cost Analysis Overview BalutLoercn Cost Effectiveness Analysis Levine Economics in Cos Analysis Horovvitz Estimating Relationships 1 Lun39e a Cloos Estimating Relationships 11 Lune Force Costing Roark Spring Break Midtenn Cost Progress Curves Loercn Production Rate Effects Balut Schedule Estimating Hannon Life Cycle Costin Nelson So ware Costing Frazier Project Reviews Loercn 39nal Exam Loercn COST ANALYSIS OVERVIEW Definition of Cost Analysis Context 7 Example IDA Mobility Study Role of Cost Analyst 7 Environment 7 Functions History of Cost Analysis 7 Beginnings 7 Evolution 7 Current status COST ANALYSIS 0 Definition the process of estimating the individual and comparative costs of alternative ways of accomplishing an objective 0 Goal reveal the extent to which one alternative costs more or less that others COST ANALYSIS IS More than a cost estimate Usually conducted with an effectiveness analysis to aid in the selection of one alternative over others A sequential process 7 Identification Scenarios Alternatives Resources 7 Measurement Usage ofresources 7 Evaluation Comparison of alternatives EXAMPLE 0 Purpose Illustrate nature of cost analysis View Within context of costeffectiveness analysis Focus on comparative costs 0 Case Mobility Study conducted by IDA ISSUE Situation 7 Airlift eet getting old 7 Cl4l s retire starting in 1997 7 Delivery capability will fall Objective 7 Maintain airlift capability to support one longrange and one short range scenario nearsimultaneously Question 7 How to efficiently maintain capability for the next 30 years METHODOLOGY Specify Scenarios 7 Longrange shortrange Identify Alternatives 7 Hold tonmiles per day constant Estimate 30year Costs 7 1992 discounted dollars Estimate Effectiveness 7 Tons delivered per day Integrate Costs and Effectiveness 7 Tons delivered per day per billion dollars SCENARIOS LongRange 7 7000 miles 7 Many intermediate airfields 7 Theater infrastructure welldeveloped ShortRange 7 2500 miles 7 Few intermediate airfields 7 Theater infrastructure lesswell developed Variations on Both 7 All airfields available 7 Some airfields denied ALTERNATIVES Alternative 1 7 Procure 120 C17 s starting now 7 Retire C141 s as C17 s enter Alternative 2 7 SLEP C141 s starting now 7 Procure 120 CX s starting in 2011 Alternative 3 7 Procure 120 C5 s starting in 1997 7 Retire C141 s as C5 s enter COST ESTIMATES Operate and Support Existing Forces 7 CS S C141 s KClO s C130 s Acquire Operate and Support New 7 C17 s CX s CS S C130 s Extend Life Operate and Support 7 C 141 s Improve CONUS AirfieldsFacilities COSTS OF ALTERNATIVES Alternative Cost 1 B 1 1 Buy C17 s 64 2 SLEP C141 s Buy CX s 82 3 Buy CS s 76 COST EFFECTIVENESS Tons delivered per day per billion dollars Variations Alternatives Scenario All Fields Available 1 Buy Cl7 s 63 80 2 SLEP Cl4l s Buy CX s 44 54 3 Buy C5 s 54 62 Some Fields Denied 1 Buy Cl7 s 38 69 2 SLEP Cl4l s Buy CX s 26 28 3 Buy C5 s 22 26 0 1940 s Leading events 0 1950 s Beginnings 1960 s Rise and fall of systems analysis 0 1970 s Shift in focus 0 1980 s Response to rising demand 0 1990 s Costeffectiveness returns LEADING EVENTS PreWWII Army Navy planned trained and fought independently WWII US fought on joint basis Operations Research invented 1942 ASWORG established After WWII Separation of mission responsibility broke down 1946 RAND established 1947 National Security Act of 1947 DoD established 1948 Term Weapon System Analysis invented 1949 First Systems Analysis BEGINNINGS 1950 s Eisenhower budget consciousness regarding defense 1950 RAND Cost Analysis Department established 1951 David Novick pioneered cost analysis Cost elements Onetime and recurring Estimating relationships Conceptual costs 1952 Parametric cost estimating Incremental costing 1953 Total Force costing 1955 NAVWAG established 1956 IDA established 1958 Position of DDRampE established PERTCOST 7 Work Breakdown structure 1959 INS established RISE AND FALL OF SYSTEMS ANALYSIS 1960 Economics of Defense in the Nuclear Age Hitch 1961 System and Total Force Cost Analysis Novick McNamara appointed Hitch Hitch established DASD Systems Analysis Beginning of centralized defense decision making Costeffectiveness Beginning of development of cost analysis capabilities in DOD 1962 CNA formed 1963 Requirement for milestone authorization imposed 1964 Analysis for Military Decisions Quade 196165 Whiz Kids won battles 1965 Johnson extended PPBS to all Federal Agencies Systems Analysis of ce elevated to ASD level Flag of cers spoke out against costeffectiveness 1967 A Commentary on Defense Managementquot Smale 1968 Uses and Abuses of Analysis Schlessinger warns Congress 1969 Laird deemphasized role of Systems Analysis Term Economic Analysis substituted Substantial cost growth in 27 of 35 major systems 1970 Cost Considerations in Systems Analysis Fisher 1971 72 LairdPackard resolved to fix procurement ills 1971 1972 1974 DSARCS with cost analysis reviews Independent parametric estimates Services directed to improve cost estimating DesigntoCost CAIG established Requirement for independent cost estimate at MS II and MS III Shift towards Program Evaluation ASDSA renamed ASDPAampE VAMOSC 197779 Spate of cost growth Congressional hearings


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