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Statistical Concepts and Methods

by: Meta Gutmann

Statistical Concepts and Methods MATH 311

Marketplace > Central Washington University > Mathematics (M) > MATH 311 > Statistical Concepts and Methods
Meta Gutmann
GPA 3.81

William Owen

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William Owen
Class Notes
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This 1 page Class Notes was uploaded by Meta Gutmann on Monday October 5, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to MATH 311 at Central Washington University taught by William Owen in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 12 views. For similar materials see /class/218977/math-311-central-washington-university in Mathematics (M) at Central Washington University.


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Date Created: 10/05/15
I Math 311 Fall 2008The Florida vote in the 2000 Presidential Election I EXit polls showed Al Gore winning in Florida If they were correct he was the neXt president of the United States Instead results later showed George Bush winning by 537 votes People said you couldn t believe eXit polls and they lost some credibility The switch to Bush s column gave him 271 electoral votes just enough to win even though he lost the popular vote by more than 540000 Statisticians began investigating and came up with a very plausible eXplanation In addition to Gore and Bush there were several candidates and one who attracted the most attention was Pat Buchanan a rightwing conservative In Palm Beach county Buchanan was credited with 3407 votes more than three times what he got in any other county This was especially notable because Palm Beach county is strongly democratic and a rightwing conservative would not be expected to get anything near what he got We investigate In Florida s 67 counties the regression which would predict Pat Buchanan s vote total from Gore s vote total is I 8074 004144 Gore s Total This plot is shown neXt to the residual plot Fitted Line Plot Scatterplot of SRES 1 vs Gore Buchanan m 74 0 004144 bra 2500 4 m 2000 4 E13 2 2 z E 1500 quot I It 0 e n 1000 0 3 y 500 I i I 2 39 e u g 0 r4 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 Gore mre The outlier in the residual plot at almost 8 standard deviations above the line is from Palm Beach county which is known to be a very strong democratic county and thus votes for Buchanan should be correspondingly small Yet Buchanan got 3407 votes Did he really get this many votes If we remove Palm Beach county leaving 66 counties the regression is Fitted Line Plotwilh Palm Beach county removed hanan 1107 0002557 Gare 1200 39 s 133 291 R511 53 Wu 1000 7 Remedy s2 5 800 e 600 e Buchanan 4007 200 e 0 100000 200000 300000 400000 Gare Based on this regression and Gore s Palm Beach county votes we would predict that Buchanan should get 1107002557268945798 votes in Palm Beach county This is probably a high estimate because it is known that Palm Beach county is strongly democratic and a rightwing conservative would probably not get that many votes Buchanan s vote total in Palm Beach county was 3407almost 35 times his neXt best county Allowing him to get even a thousand votes Gore would have won Florida by about 2000 votes What happened The answer is provided by looking at the Palm Beach County ballot known as the butter y ballot This was the only county that used such a ballot which you will see now


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