Transportation Systems Engineering
Transportation Systems Engineering CE 401
Popular in Course
Popular in Civil Engineering
This 55 page Class Notes was uploaded by Jermain Lindgren on Thursday October 15, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to CE 401 at North Carolina State University taught by John Stone in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 27 views. For similar materials see /class/223739/ce-401-north-carolina-state-university in Civil Engineering at North Carolina State University.
Reviews for Transportation Systems Engineering
Report this Material
What is Karma?
Karma is the currency of StudySoup.
Date Created: 10/15/15
Data amp Trend Forecasting Methods sion 5 1 E um R Stunt PhD NCSU DEpavtment m cw Engmeennu Wm m Topics Revwew of aSt ecture m E 33 E a E Q Orv OCaUOHS NCDOT traf c Counts amp trends Other data Sources Methods 9 a a m 90 Q In sum UHM 131V References Project 1 Truck Traf c Forecasting VTRIS Database httpwwwfhwadotgovohimohimvtishtmamp httpsappsfhwadotgovVTRISdefaultaspx NCDOT Maps amp Publications wwwncdotorgmaps ADT data by county etc No tati tip ht ln39 fate nr US Census httpwwwcensusgov Bureau of Transportation Statistics httpwwwtranstatsbtsgov Traffic Monitoring Guide wwwfhwadotgovohimtmgbookpdf HE HATE UNNE ISlT39 National Transportation Atlas Bureau of Transportation Statistics BTS 2007 a quot39 quot h for quot planning WeighlnMotion WIM stations with geographic attributes amp classified traffic counts more efficientthan VTRIS data Download files via wwwht 39 39 atlas database Geospatial information for transportation modal networks intermodal terminals amp related attribute information Atlas shows NC amp other states WIM stations etc ArcEXplorer free GIS software www e ri html nmmmm Review Truck volumes on many US highways may double by 2020 project benchmarks reality checks Annualtruck traffic growth rates 25 to 3 Example l95 truck traf c 10000 trucksday or more Withouttrucks l95 is not congested Project 1 Data test various variables amp use best 2 variables to forecast truck traffic Models test at least two models to test with truck data amp choose the best model to recommend Recall Structure your project truck traffic forecasting model using the steps of the transportation systems analysis process Define the problem background issues needs Identify scope map location limitations of model Identify objectives for the chosen model Synthesize alternatives model types amp variables Fit data to models amp calibrate the coefficients Improve the model structure with more or less variables Choose amp justifythe best model Documentwith recommendations for model use limitations of proposed model amp ideas for model improvement IE lle HM WIT Discussion What is the transportation system you are you modeling in Project 1 Multimodal network highway segment intersection other What is the activity system you are modeling Driver local area state economy nation other What model types should be considered Why What model data causal variables should be considered Why What data are available What modeling tools are available HE HATE IAINMI ISIT39 Example Truck Traffic Forecasting on l95 in Johnston County NC Given Specified nyear design horizon Interstate highway segment in a NO County Activityvariables OnIine www NC US population amp economic databases Transportation system variables Class locker projecttraffic data base Excel files NC continuous count program 90 ATRs AVC s amp WI Ms Continuousvolumes vehicle classes amp weights Adjustment factors annual averages statistics NC coverage counts by vehicle class 1935 stations Other US traffic databases VTRIS HPMS LTPP Traf fic volumes by location vehicle class weight axles etc Example l95 Truck Forecasting Fi d n Graphic dispiays amptabies uf mam data Tuiaiivamc imckivamc pupuiaimn ecunumy impuvi 2 c 7 Anaiyucai furecasting mudeis i251 amp chuuse m best singie amuinwaname mudei Lin amend Gmwlhiaciuv Puiynumiai R egvessiun 7 Graphic dispiays ampta is uffuturetutai trucktraf e reiated data causaivariabie 7 us uficatiun e verif c S i atiun ufmudei resu 7 nticai assessmentuf mudei strengths its e weaknesses Jan Dec Traffic Variation l95 Example l95 Truck Forecasting Canumate LBS Prmems Wdemng 7 TStechnmugy 7 Truck stup exemmcauun TSE Example 95 Traffic Counters in J t ohnstonyounv 132147qu urus 7uAmUs 7m S1 215 r me SR 1927 m US 3m s13 24 r me HameltCu une mNC su s13 zms rme N quC su m SR 1178 Stations 214 215 324 Other Station 5 amp Locations Sta 2015 NCDOT St South och 50 to north of SR M78m Johnston Co Swte 541m 6 mHes north of SCNC border neartown of McDona d r SHRP 377701 WW Statmn thh VTR S 77m Truc Traf c on l85 in Cleveland Ca W W mmmmmm MN 5 MRS m m gumrmsamun W M m mm mm mm m4an W VTRIS Data 2002 l95 m 1 a 4 M 339 quot1 Wm urWunemvecuun ExampleJohnston County l95 Data NCDOT Uanacmved NunrArmuahzed Tvamc Da a Wm mm m m 5595 w mm SWUW Example Traffic Counts Johnston Co unfactored ADT cnans xxs ole ADT average daHytraf cJota vemdes both n N dnecuo s Example Traffic Counts Johnston Co unfactored ADT Cnarts X s w m 394 n W W mquot m nn Mm ms 1 u an mm mm m m wz MM mm mm nnw Wm y W Wu Example Traffic Counts Pr Johnston C0 unfaclored ADT Charts gtltl5 Other Model Variables m the prevlous data slldes onlytramc data byyear were dlsplayed r Tntal Traf c 7 Traf c by Class a and Vear Whatomer model varlables should be consldered Other Available Data Candidates for Causal Variables in the Model Johnston Co Traf c Data station ADT class Johnston Co amp Region J population NC amp Johnston Co population employment income retail sales industry building costs amp permits transportation warehouses NC amp Johnston Co vehicle registrations traf c accidents primary highway mileage US GDP gas amp diesel prices demographics metro amp rural areas unemployment rate households median income average household expenditures Internet sources USBTS US Census NC statistics NC Dept of Commerce website Summary of Available Data CE 401501 Course Locker Project 1 NCDOT Traffic Data station ADT class VTRIS Traffic Data station AADT class volumes Internet sources see Project 1 statement Population employment income retail sales industry building costs amp permits transportation warehouses Vehicle registrations traffic accidents primary highway mileage US GDP gas amp diesel prices demographics metro amp rural areas unemployment rate households median income average household expenditures Terms ADT average daily traffic total vehiclesday all classes AADT average annual dailytraffic totalvehiclesday all classes AADTT average annual daily truck traffic totaltrucksday 24 Trend LInes for Historical Johnston County l95 Data quotME 39 quot quotur mmmme m t m 33 A V cm 3 quot rev At a v 3 a a 1 3 m t m m m Hg mg I I n E y Inmmuummwt mmhwvasvmzk cm quot 6 quot lupmmxhr pm fox demugnphm mm and Mam am 21 mm Wizardor Scumevaynm Dave 5 Some Forecasting Models Annua Growth Factor Wu from htstortc traf c trends r0 ray 7 AGF mm FutureTrafftcfrom econormc projecttorvs 1y my PrPay ErEu May LOSMLOSM Regresston anatysrs gt eastrsquares best t or exptanatory vanabtes a nnreaemamme Am av Trucks Hwy Type LQS come ErT poyment Locanon conneamzy etc r AADrr annual average dayy truck traf c all truck classes Try Pop m Some Forecasting Tools Excel Spreadsheets Graphicaltrend line analysis Regression analysis SAS statistical methods Matlab NCDOT TrendProgram spreadsheet single variable Simple linear models Growth factor models Polynomialmodels NCDOT Traf c Forecasting Utility single variable Simple linear models Growth factor models NCDOT TrendProgram Spreadsheet Purpose develop ADT traffic forecasts Input historical ADT counts for up to 3 stations overas many as 22 years Output forecast future year ADT as a function of Year Model types Linear y ax b y value of future year traffic X number of years b yintercept Polynomial y ax2 bx c Exponential y aebx Critique Method model causal variables TrendProgram Example mm Data Gwen 7 StangMADTcuums 7 veers 19927 was Fwd r VeerZEIZEI gammacas usmg unearmude Pa wnmwa mnde Expunema made TrendProgram Station Analys39s 1a summamnput Data mm TrendProgram Long Term Trends wwimumm 1795 ms op Lm 7 meCaLmleablesR7Othv chummendzlinns x7957 maxelanes a my Mudew Melhum Futuve 5mm WrapUp was 7 Tvuckdasses 7 0mm 51am ucauuns 7 ADT mum c ass s 7 ADT 25mm usmg hum expunenuax amp pu ynumwa mudg s Tvendegvam Ms 7 CvmqueuHheTvendegvam Su smude s Beaumevammaywuh demugvaphm ecunummamp mhev um uvecastsusmg am my mhev mm SAS smcyuncn 2h s anpymem 7 Read pvub em smemem 7 Read scape Smbjec wes IE HATE UNIFIEDquot Fundamental Problem of Transportation Systems Engineering Session 2 CE 401501 John R Stone PhD NCSU Department of Civil Construction amp Environmental Engineering httpengineeringonlinehcsuedu Topics Homework amp project teams Review Transportation Systems Analysis Methodology Fundamental Problem of Transportation Systems Engineering Relationship of Fundamental Problem to TSA Wrapup Team exercise TSA Paper Abstract Basic Premises A regton s transportauon system must be ytewed as a smgte mutttmodat system Thetotat system mdudes tand use Soctaty economtc amp pottttcat systems Transponauon demand traf c tretgm movemem etc ts predtctabte from trends ot popmauon emptoyment and soctoeconomtc actMt Transponauon systems can be destgned to meet the dem Example Applyto Trucks amp Highway Improvements undamental Problem Tms t5 the owchan fortransponauon 5 Stems anatysts The tundamentat probtem ts to predtct tramc tows for attemattye tranSDonauon Hand use pttons mm mm gt V Examptes 795 Wtdemng Truck Stop E ectrt cauon ToH Roads Transportation Objectives Typical objectives are these ok To improve access to business for mobility impaired to properties travel timetrip vehmilesday tripsday To reduce congestion amp delay LOS vehhrday To improve safety accidentsyr injuriesyr fatalitiesyr To improve the environment tons pollutantsday To reduce energy consumption galsday To reduce costs operation costsyr capital cost NPVV To increase revenues yr To maximize the BenefitstoCost ratio BC Fix these objectives with a qualifying phrase that is often related to a standard average minimum acceptable value etc What is a biased objective What objectives would you use for the Truck Stop Electrification TSE problem Project 1 Technology options Forecasting method options System Options Transportation System Options supply side options New highway alignments highway widening bridges interchanges vehicles laws tolls changes in technology Transportation System Management TSM Public transportation Transportation regulations taxes fares Activity System land use Options demand side options Location type amp intensity of land use Behavior of users peakoffpeak use ride sharing preferences for travel Fundamental Problem Consider equiiibrium 7 What is it 7 What changes 7 r HEIWiS it detErminEd an n GET Equilibrium Methods Gnai CaMuiiy baiance supin amp demand npnnns 7 in mm an acceptabie Equiiibrium Vuiume Travei Time 7 in mm acceptabie imparts Equiiibrium mamas 7 Ma h maticai methuds 7 Manuai sketch memuds ampspreadsheets 7 Cumputer prugrams 0R5 Transom etc 7 F39uimcai nnsensus Fundamental Problem Pre ng flows Transponauon system gt Supp yrswde opuons EXamp E LBS suppys ue uptmns 7 Acuyny ayatem gt Demandswde opuons mp e LBS demandrswde uptmns 7 s amp D ethbnum Q sy 7 w systems change 5 e D curves smn rEaUng a new Ethbnum pumt EX mmeasmg pupmanu s m D smm 7 EX New mgnwa ane mm TSA ltgt Fundamental Problem Tyanspuna mnsys gms runnemsmawmmsm Ana 5 s 9 27 s 5 r OPWWIZE We meunstu muease 539 Cm Pans m mum39s aws bene ts K veduce cus15 739 Dev a 5 E r Chuuse bes1 meun Wrap Up Fundamental Problem of Transportation Engineering predict traffic flows amp impacts for Supply amp Demand system options Next session Demand amp Supply concepts Team Exercise Sit with your team members Review HW 1a course locker Use the remainder ofthe class to start answering the HW 1a questions IE HATE UHWE ISIT39 Supply and Demand Models Session 3 CE 401501 John R Stone PhD NCSU Department of Civil Construction amp Environmental Engineering httpengineeringonlinencsuedu Topics Review Basic Premises Review Fundamental Problem of Transportation Systems Engineering Demand Model Concepts Supply Model Concepts Examples Simple Equilibrium Wrapup A g singie Review Basic Premises re ron s transportatron system must be viewed as a muitiemodai system Tne totai system inciudes iand use sociai economrc amp poimcai systems Transportatron demand traffic rrergnt movement pedestnan mp5 etc rs predictabie rrom trends or popuiauon em ioyment and socroeconomrc actryrty Transportatron systems can be desrgned to meet tne demand Review Fundamental Problem Tne fundamentai probiem rs to predrcttrarnc ows tor aiternatrye transportation iand use optrons Review Fundamental Problem redictingflows Gwen mamas 5 congested What are some opuons g u o 3 a g E a 3 H V 9 u g lt a a o i Z 4 48 3 u 3 g a a o 33 mpe r demandrswdeuptmns 7 5 amp D ethbnum e Snaprshut uf Transpunatmn w gt E s 2 e EXamp e New mghvvay anes 7 Demand Model Concepts a HmtmnJ uwuvmwememulpeup e vemdes aguuds my me uanspunanun sys1em Examme news my mgnway yaw aw Watev pwpehne mm 7 vemmes penp e m guuds ummme rm mude s 1Losmuemugvagmcs M We m nway va aw et LOS eve m semce rust uave ume salety cummn vehammy at A adwny sys1em unstam my eacn demand curve Demugvapmcs pupmatmn emp uymem mcume and use at Demand Curves LOSM trvl time cost etc A1 lt A2 lt A3 population Increasing DA demand for constant A Flow ADT vph etc 7 Example Demand Model Linear Trend Model T t a0 a1 t 8 t year t T t traffic in yeart t is not travel time a0 constant coefficient bias term T axis intercept T capacity a1 linear slope 39 9 error term quot Note This model is a simple forecasting model it is not a true demand model that is a function I of LOS activity system demographics etc a Critique pros amp cons Use Example Demand Model Growth Factor Model Tfy Tby 1 AGF fvbv T traffic fy future year by base year AGF annual growth factor AADT AADT H AADTH AADT annual average daily traffic T capacity t year t t1 previous year Note This model is a simple forecasting model I it is not a true demand model that is a function of LOS activity system demographics etc Critique pros amp cons fy Use Example Demand Model Linear Regression Trend Model with Causal Terms multivariable linear regression Tta0a1ta2X2manXn 2 T traffic in calendar yeart r constant coefficients years underlying historical trend Xquot causal influences such as LOS travel time cost congestion highway type etc Demographics population housing starts economic growth land use income Technology 2 2 2 Economy 2 2 2 Critique pros amp cons Use 7 quot9 Application to Project 1 Example Demand Model New Mexico Heavy Commercial Vehicles HCV 28000 15 t 01 DI 008G 007 C HCV heavy commercial trucks on l40 t year format yyyy DI US disposable income G US gasoline cost C NM cost of residential construction the large negative yintercept is due to using a 4digit year Y in the trend term R2 08 Critique pros amp cons Use Example Demand Model Product Regression Model with Economic Projections Tfy Tby PWPWa EfyEbyb IfylbyC LosfyLosbyd T traffic in base year by or future year fy P population E employment average personal income LOS level of senice a b c d constant coefficients Critique pros amp cons Use mm Some questions How do you cnoose the demand mode type 7 Wear mu twa ab e Wear 7 EXpunEnUa r mu twanab e nunrhnear r at How do you cnoose the vamab es to use m your demand modeW Supply Mndel Concepts Supp y mode s are used wun demand modem to estabhsh ethbnum ows fundamentax prob em sys LEm amptranspunatmn sysiems are cuns tant snap Lane yndemng gt smn 7 TS truck mamfestmg gt smn 7 TuH gt smn 7 Fue tax smn 7 Supply Model Concepts Supply definition flow or movement of people vehicles amp goods on the transportation system Example supply flows same as demand vehicleshr AADT trucksday pedshr tonmilesday etc Supply models SM f LOSM technologyT M mode highway rail air etc LOS level of service cost travel time safety comfort reliability etc T transportation system constant for each supply curve Transportation system characteristics capacity no of lanes design speed safety reliability etc Supply Curves LOSM trvl time cost etc Capacity I DA T1 ltg2 ltT3 i T2 8T3 I l l I l 96req39sing ST congant T along I h S curve l I l I I I I Flow ADT vph etc Example Supply Curve Delay vs Volume nonlinear model why Answer Inverse HCM Speed Volume Diagram Delay minutes mile 05 10 Volume Capacity Ratio VC Example Supply Model Linear Model t a0 a1 V t travel time minutes V traffic volume vehicleshr a0 constant taxis intercept a1 constant coefficient slope of the supply curve minutesvehhr Critique pros amp cons Travel Time t S Uses Volume V 18 Example Supply Model Toll Bridge Garber amp Hoel p 30 20 Given 81 C 025veh 0 5 V5 2000 vpd 82 V 8000 O V gt 2000 vpd C costveh Cost lveh 82 V vehday typo in text 3975 Find 50 S1 amp S2 curves D D curve 25 S1 Equilibrium flow amp toll Revenue at equilibrium 2000 4000 6K 8K 12K Vol vehday IE 5quot UNWE 39ISIT39 Wrap Up Demand Model Concepts amp Example Models For a stable activity system constant demographics the demand increases with decreasing transport costs Models growth trend linear regression etc Supply Model Concepts amp Example Models For a stable transportation system constant technology increased supply flow means increasing transport costs Models linear nonlinear etc hard to develop supply models Simple Equilibrium Problem toll bridge Next session Forecasting Methods Forecasting Truck Traffic Project 1 Introduction Session 4 CE 401501 John NCSU Department of cm Engineering WW Topics Probiem forecastfuturetrucktraf c US Perspective 7 NC F39Erspe ive Project 1 7 Prubiem scape e umemwes i785 Cieveiand Co Trucktren 5 prujectiuns 7 Appmach at a Review intro to TSE Projecti IE HATE UHWE39ISFF39 References Freight Analysis Framework Status amp Future Direction FHWA Office of Freight Management and Operations USDOT httpwwwopsfhwadotgovfreight Project 1 Truck Traf c Forecasting CE 401501 Various Internet links listed in Project 1 Garber amp Hoel Chapter 2 pages 3454 6370 Apdx B Apdx C If II llNll39E39lSlT39 Preview Truck traf c will grow considerably in the future causing congestion amp delay problems on US highways Accurate truck forecasts are needed for highway pavement amp bridge design amp other projects such as truck stop electri cation TSE Data each team will Review data available in course locker amp some Internet sources Discuss data with team members Choose at least 2 parameters to evaluate vs truck traffic Methods each team will Review models amp methods in course locker Choose at least two models to test with truck data Problem US Perspective Frewghnramsgruwmgiasterman passengemam Fragm apamty humanecks are ausmg 7 Cungestmn mm 7 ncrease mummamas 1 ause Mandamry truck my Durmgre smpsdwers mwe engmesvur abm ummes n Engme dhng mcreases V 7 mm 7 Emwssmns 7 Nmse Tun Vewtmck s1up Vamhues 1998 US Freight Demand by Mode Total 15 n Tons 9 Trillion Ham Ham An In lal Wan Causal Factors for Truck Traffic Enhancing factors Growing economy in late 1990 s mid 2000 s Costeffective truck transportation 0 Subsidized highways amp truck facilities fuel taxes 0 Relatively low cost fuel New technologies justintime delivery to any destination GPS tracking computeraided dispatch amp scheduling Increased international trade especially imports to US Intermodal shipments ship to truck rail to truck air to truck Other factors Causal Factors for Truck Traffic Inhibiting factors Reduoed highway capacity amp LOS Economic downturn Uncertain fuel availability Rising fuel prices Increased security inspections Falling international trade exports Others IE HATE UHWE ISIT Top Gateways for International Freight Imports Exports IE 11 Mle 1311 USICanada Truck Traffic on US Highway Network 2020 Tons Freight Forecast Growth Rates FHWA Trend Models Tonnage Forecastsr us D 51 ome m AH FrewthBBErZUZU 24yr Cumu awe 57 7 Subset Geneva Cavgu 23MCumuatwe 113 7 US ntematmna 199872020 ZEyrCumuawe 85 r USCanada 1333mm 3 2yv Cumu atwe 33 r USMEX EEI1333ZUZU 5 My Cumu atwe 217 r USuthevstSSEVZUZU 2 EwCumuatNe 77 Truck Volumes on FAF Network 1998 mm Truck Volumes on FAF Network 2010 Immu Truck Volumes on FAF Network 2020 Percentage of Segments with Over 10000 Trucksday 1998 vs 2020 quotquot39 Isumm snr uns quotmul mm mun 1w w umsz um msz Runlr quotquot5 ex mama quotquot5 Impacts of Increased Truck Traffic Congesuon amp de ay Rehawa of Iquot HATE WINE 39ISIT39 Congestion Cost for Trucks Scheduled transit time amp delay 144 192hr TRB FHWA studies Driver wage Vehicle operating cost amp depreciation Unanticipated delay 300 400hr Broken schedules Missed job opportunities Effect of Truck Traffic on National Highway System Capacity Adding trucks to other traffic on NHS causes the of highway miles approaching capacity or exceeding capacity to double 1998 NHS Mileage 2010 NHS Mileage 2020 NHS Mileage VC Ratio NoTrucks AllTra 39ic NoTrucks AllTra ic No Trucks All Tral c 151457 144792 vc lt 08 7 9 131203 139933 118839 829 884 75 2020 Congestion without Trucks m mm m mm 2020 Congestion with Trucks vc Mm mmmn mu FHWA Vehicle Classifications u was 2 Passenuevcav 3 Oihevlwoaxie me mm mm vehicies 6 Buses 5 Twu am a we smuie umis a Thveeaxies sngieunns smuieumis a Fuuvuviessaxiesmuieivaiievs a Fweaxiesmuieivaiievs m Sixuvmuveaxiesmuieivaiievs 13 n my mum am mum ivaiievs m omev NCDOT Class calinns PAssmauvemcies 7 FHWAciasses 2 3 DUAL mm unnimcks 7 FHWAciasses 4 5 5 7 TTST imckswiih 1 ham 7 FHWAciasses E a m TWiMmummeuauevs 7 FHWAciasses M 12 13 m 22 Vehicle Classi cations NCDOT vs FHWA mm mm classes 5 7 a 9 m u Buses mu mu mum mm sun EMT fe g 5 use H Iwms u T 23 Vehicle Classes 5 Relative Pavement Impact ESALS Class 1 7 Motorcycles lass 1 2 3 Negligl e Vehicle Classes DUAL Remve Pavement mpact ESALS mass 47 Buses mass 47 u 57 355 57 Zax es seme mass 57 u 26 smg er umt Fucks mass 67 raxhe smg eumt mass 6 D 42 trucks mass 774 ax es smg er mass 7 D 42 umttrucks av Vehicle Classes TTST Remve Pavement mpact ESALS mass EVA mess axha mass E u an smg etra ertmcks mass 97 rax e smg e mass 91 12 trauertrucks mass WEIVEurmureax e mass mines smg etra ertmcks Vehicle Classes TWiNrTTST Trains Reiative Pavement impact ESALS Ciass iir uriessaxie Ciass 117082 mumrtraiiertrucks Ciass 127 Eraxie muinr mass 127 1 n6 traiiertrucks Ciass istmmeaxiea 0355137139 mumrtraii Er trucks I Jan Dec Traffic Variation l95 Project 1 NC Truck Forecasting Increased truck traffic causes Highway capacity problems Regional environmental problems Truck traffic appears to be growing fasterthan general traffic in NC Underestimation of truck traffic leads to poor design amp maintenance of highway facilities amp pavements Accurate estimates of truck traffic will improve Highway pavement amp bridge design Design amp location oftruck stop facilities such as Truck Stop Electrification L gtth muimsvuflzlleAire min pm multesy zlleAire min Truck Stop Electri ication Project 1 Truck Forecasting Problem Gwen 7 Specmed weardes gn hunzun 7 Warsaw mghvvay segment m 3 NC Cuunty 7 NCtraffu databases NC Bun us uumpmgvam 8D ATR SENWMS NC uve g uumsbyvemme mass 1335 stauuns 7 US traf c databases VTR S HF39MS 7 NC e US pupu atmn e Ecunumu database 522 mean wme up Project 1 Truck Forecasting Problem Find Graphic displays amp tables of historic data Total traffic amptrucks population economy etc Analytical forecasting models Trend Growth factor Polynomial Regression Graphic displays amp tables of future total truck traffic data Expert assessment amp FAF verification of model results Critical assessment of model strengths amp weaknesses Project 1 Scope amp Objectives Scope Focus on a selected County in North Carolina Develop TOTAL heavy truck forecasts at a WIM station Use available data sources fortrucks population economic amp other indicators for traffic growth Objectives To develop forecasts on Growth factor model over time Regression model based on time amp at least one causal factor like population cost of fuel the economy etc To critically assess the results using expertjudgment statistics amp national freight forecasts FAF Identify the best model for predicting truck traffic IE HATE lll l39t39l quot Project 1 Approach Define the problem amp scope study area amp time frame Identify the objectives HW l b Review the causal in uences on truck traf c amp obtain data va 1b County amp region State amp nation Demographics economic indicators cost of fuel technology innovationsgovernmental policies etc Select analysis tools Acquire data from available sources Develop amp re ne forecasting models for truck traf c Evaluate the results amp select the best model Document the project If in UNWE 39ISIT39 Some Forecasting Models Annual Growth Factor from historic traf c trends Ty Thy 1 AGF frby Future Traf c from economic projections Ty Tby PEPb a EnEmquot InImC LOS LOSWJd Regression analysis gt leastsquares best t of explanatory variables Tfy ftn calendar year ADTT Pop Income Employment GDP Trade Development Industry etc Some Forecasting Tools Excet Spreadsheets e Graphtcanrend hhe ahatysts e Regressmn ahatysts Manab SAS stattsttcat methods StatCruhch uhth servevrbased 122 mm CDOT TrendProgram spreadsheet e shhpte hhearmudets e Gmwth tammrhudets e Putyhumtat mudets stu y are I85 WIM Station 37722025354 NCDDT station 533 wle m if i aha Some other NCDOT WIlVI Station IDs L M 85 Data for W Immmmum a w a r 31quot mm IPrj1VTRIS WIM Data on Interstates w lacs Typical Annual Growth Factors AGFs IPrj1 NC TrfCts 92963 NCDOT cwmxam on Stauun 538 nm ava ame 19924996 oaaun on manunmsnume 2351 Nme Tmckdata avE Ewen 35ADT anwmumes mm Project 1 FAF to VTRIS Comparison 12 mm Project 1 FAF to VTRIS Comparison 22 wxs cLEvELAun cowquot M 4m campmmmn m as am WrapUp Trucktraf cwm growconswderab ymmefuturecausmg ge o a con 5n n amp de y prob ems on us mgh y ecasts are needed for mghway deswgn ects or amp other transponauon pro Methods each 7 Revwevv me Revwevv Sam on HWZb lt Project amp data 7 each tea m 7 Rev 3 vwm team members 7 Chuuse at 2351 2 parameterstu Eva uate vs truck traf c tea mWH thud 6ampH Apdx a em EXCEL Mauab Etc mude s r ChEIEISE at Eas t WEI mudE S El 551 WWW truck data fur the S39Ludy area e utherdata fur NC ms hnear AGF MVLR