Special Topics in Statistics
Special Topics in Statistics ST 495
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DA Short History of Air Pollution William F Hunt Jr Introduction Air Pollution has been around a long time Roman philosopher Seneca wrote of the heavy air of Rome in 61 AD Edward I of England banned the burning of sea coal in craftsman s furnaces be prohibited because of foul smelling fumes 1306 Elizabeth I of England banned the burning of coal while Parliament was in session Air Pollution Episodes Meuse Valley Belgium 1930 Donora PA 1948 Poza Rica Mexico 1950 London 1952 New York 1953 to 1966 Bhopal India 1984 Some Systems of the Human Body Effected Respiratory Cardiovascular Skin and eyes Other Examples of Health Effects on Respiratory System Bronchitis acute and chronic Pulmonary emphysema Lung cancer pneumoconiosis cough chest pain Examples of Health Effects from Air Toxics Cancer Respiratory irritation Reproductive toxicity Developmental effects Pulmonary toxicity Liver toxicity Changes in Sociew and the Economy Population growth Industrialization Growth and distribution of wealth Changing social attitudes Environmental activism Local Control Initiatives 1661 London smoke control 18803 Chicago and Cincinnati municipal regulation of smoke emissions 1940 s Pittsburgh public protest against smoke changes in fuels combustion practices 1980 s Denver Metropolitan Air Quality CouncH State Control Initiatives 1940 5 California and LA County study causes and effects of smog 1952 Oregon first state air pollution control agency 1980 s growth of state air toxic programs 1990 5 Regional Approaches NOX SIP Call Federal Research and studies Need for National perspective pollution respects no State borders USEPA established in 1970 Major Legislative Landmarks Air Pollution Control Act 1955 Clean Air Act 1963 Air Quality Act 1967 Clean Air Act 1970 Amendments to CAA 1977 Amendments to CAA 1990 Clean Air Act of 1970 USEPA Air Quality Management I NAAQS I SIPs NESHAPNSPS Citizen Lawsuits Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 Nonattainment PSD Strengthened mobile source provisions VisibilityStratospheric Ozone Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 Major change in approach to attainmentnonattainment Overhaul of hazardous air pollutants Market based incentives Enhanced ozone monitoring PAMS Criteria Pollutants Regulated under NAAQS Ubiquitous Healthbased standards Standards apply to all States equally SIPs Criteria Pollutants Particulate Matter Lead Sulfur Dioxide Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Dioxide Ozone ground level Hazardous Air Pollutants Any of 189 chemicals and compound groups listed in CAAA of 1990 as hazardous air pollutants List can be revised as new substances are found Some Hazardous Air Pollutants Asbestos Heptachlor Benzene Hydrochloric Acid Carbon Tetrachloride Methanol Chlordane Phenol Chloroform Toluene Formaldehyde Environmental Effects of Air PoHu on Ecosystem effects Property damage Qualityof Iife effects Global climate change Ecosystem Effects Acidification of lakes and stream I Wildlife I Aquatic life I Population of endangered species Vegetation Damage forests crops ornamental plants Other natural resource damage Property Damage Acid rain damaged buildings ornamental plants etc Ozone causes cracking of rubber nylon polymer plastics etc Particulate matter causes soiling Sulfur dioxide causes deterioration of metal and stone QualiWof Life Effects Reduced visibility acid rain and smog Reduced enjoyment of outdoors Added work cleaning of soiled property Detrimental economic effects damaged cash crops r Air Pollution Monitoring William F Hunt Jr Air Monitoring Objectives Determine whether or not a NAAQS has been exceeded Determine trends is the air pollution control program working Assess environmental risk how bad is the problem Corroborate the emission inventories Validate the models how good are the model predictions Air Quality Index Reporting Air Monitoring Stations NAMS National Air Monitoring Stations SLAMS State and Local Air Monitoring Stations SPMS Special Purpose Monitors PAMS Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations PM fine Chemical Speciation Sites National Air Monitoring Stations Objective Determine national policy decisions and trends Subset of SLAMS Locations I Areas of maximum concentration I Areas of high population exposure State and Local Air Monitoring Stations Required for State Implementation Plans Data planned for State and local uses Operated by State and local agencies Monitor Criteria Pollutants PM CO 03 02 NO2 and Pb WSLAMS cont d Monitoring Objective High Concentration Population Source Impact Scale of Measurement Micro middle neighborhood urban Neighborhood urban Neighborhood regional SLAMS cont d ri x Monitoring Objective Background Scale of Measurement neighborhood regional Frequency of Sampling Gaseous pollutants CO N02 03 SO2 and Continuous PM Particulate Matter once every day or every 3rd or 6th day Lead once every 6th day Photochemical Assessment Monitoring Stations PAMS Required by 1990 Clean Air Act Objective Improved monitoring of O3 and its precursors VOCs and NOX to make better National policy decisions Locations 21 metropolitan areas designated serious severe and extreme for 03 I Up to 5 locations per metropolitan area PAMS Objectives Evaluate control strategies Corroborate VOC and NOX emission inventories Evaluate photochemical grid models Corroborate O3 attainment decisions Determine O3 VOC and NOX trends r Characterize VOCs Assess risk to O3 amp selected air toxic pollutants PAMS Network Requirements rl x TYPE 1 Site Upwind of metropolitan area Type 2 Site Maximum precursor emission impact also air toxic site Type 3 Site Maximum 03 concentration Type 4 Site Downwind site PAMS Monitoring Requirements Measure 03 NO NO2 and NOX I Hourly data Measure 56 volatile organic compounds I Some hourly type 2 sites some 3hour basis Measure surface meteorology at each site Upper air measurements for each metropolitan area Types of PM fine 25 Monitors Federal reference methods FRM or federal equivalent methods FEM I Used for NAAQS compliance Continuous methods I PSI reporting Chemical speciation methods I Determine aerosol composition Regional hazevisibility monitoring Types of PM fine Monitors f Site Category Projected Major Purpose Number Core sites 850 FRMFEM Compliance SPMsSpatial 200 FRMFEM Compliance or Averaging Short Term Studies IMPROVE 100 monitors Regional Haze Speciation 300 samplers Trends Source apportionment Continuous 100 monitors Public Reporting Supersites 47 areas Research Sampling Frequencies FRM mass measurements I Mix of everyday 1 in 3 and 1 in 6 Speciation sampling I 1 in 3 at trends sites I 1 in 6 at others Continuous sampling I Hourly values used to provide 24 hour averages How Are Environmental Data Used William F Hunt Jr Visiting Senior Scientist North Carolina State University Former Director Emissions Monitoring and Analysis Division U S EPA A Data User s Perspective on the Monitoring Process Poirot s Added Value Theory Ambient monitoring data are expensive and extensive but increase in value with use Value of ambient monitoring data nearly always exceeds the original monitoring objectives rl Poirot s Added Value Theory Condnued especially if I Collected using standard methods I Data quality are known and documented at multiple sites I collected over long time periods and if I Data are easily accessible to users I can be combined with other data Major Air Pollutants Six Criteria Pollutants 0 Ozone 0 Particulate Matter 0 Carbon Monoxide 0 Sulfur Dioxide 0 Nitrogen Dioxide 39 Lead 188 Hazardous Air Pollutants Visibility How are Data Used Determine compliance Has a standard been exceeded Determine trends Is the air pollution control program working Assess environmental risk How serious is the problem Corroborate the emission inventories Are the inventories correct Validate the models How good are the model predictions quot39 How are Data Used cont d Report air quality index How good or bad is the air pollution today Evaluate control strategies Is the strategy achieving its objectives Characterize air quality What are the diurnal seasonal and year to year patterns What are the effects of varying meteorological conditions on air pollution Number of Monitors Reporting Data to AIRS Palmtam J39l Rural SH EE fr of Suburban Shea 3 of Urban 5135 Total Sins CD 1 3 1 53 21 F 333 Lea1 I d 58 33 125 mm 39 ms far 1 21 113 259 332 12 39rfa va39l l7 486 PM llll BEE soE 11g 121 131 3944 Overview Comparison of Growth and Air Pollution Comparison of Gm Araas and Emissiuns 23933 g Cir55 Eton391i Producrt 4 quot 39 100 If tug Ll E Fopuiatlcm fquot quotquoth IAIIllllll TDMEEIQEHETMQQDDO I Ozone Air Quality 19822001 Based on Annual 4th Max 8hour Average zene Air Quality 19312 211111 Based an Annual 41h Maximum HFHnurAverage 1123 SEQ Sitee 515 amen have mnmntrencma halew the line Emanhaim WT EIJZiEI I l I I I l I I I l I I I I I I I I BEBEEd BEBE5733559 9391 BEQ SBd39Ei QEQITQEWWEH 153241 11 diecreese 1592 111 0 change VOC Emission Trends 19822001 U Emissic msp 1352 2 1 ILE CUTIED1131 E l39ilhi all Pumas El Imam1 E HannaImus I n i 535 81 I chm1 m m a mars far a new r 9 mm BEAM Tfmsand E39m39ITarH IE IE 929395959TEEEEDOD1 1932 311 15 dacraasa 1952 01 3 daeruasa Regional Trend in 8 Hr Avg O3 Levels 19822001 Based on Annual 4th Highest Daily Max 8Hr Average e Trend in Eer Diane Levels 19822001 Averaged across EPA Regions Based an Annual 4m Maximum Bliuur Average 112 1390 1932 Composite means across all sites Concentration ppb 1 20 E l i S E B E i 3 i i 395 5 i 39hllm39hllm39hmn39hllm39hllmillllmlhllm39 s 39 E III I 39 39 5 I I 1 i i 3 Maw anal Diurnal Pattern of mean winter December February hourl CO Concentrations 1987 19 6 Concentration pom 0 5 I I I I I I I I I I l I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 2 1 4 a a u 9 1u11 12 13 1 1515 1 Hj 19 2LI 21 22 2393 24 Hour VBAM MSANIIMEFRESMDl CA My mm Max 8 VERY UNHEALTHY u mm IAMM PM Ozone and CO winter maxhour barchart summer 1 hour maxhour barohart mg Diurnal pattern of summer daily one hour maximum PM fine WE Diurnal pattern of winter daily one hour maximum PM fine 200 230 100 130 012345678 9 11 13141515171819292122 0l234 5 6 7 a 91011121314151617181920212223 maxhour maxhour 12425 Concentzation lt40 40A103 gt10 PM25 Concentration lt40 40 100 gt100 boxplot for 1 hour max ozone Diurnal pattern of mean winter hourly CO concentrations FREQUENCY Summer Diurnal Pattern of Ozone 1300 Concentration ppm 25 a 10 01234557891011121314151517L81920212223 maxhour I Maximum Ozone Concentration cs 05 12 gt12 05 Ilillliiiiiiillllili 123456789101112131415161718192021222324 Why and How We Normalized the Data Ethylene lint Manual Ized a irs4920l IOSS ethylene 900000 000000 1 A single source Gaussian plume model was used to normalize the data The I 700000 if 4 600000 details of this model can be found at quot W l l the following website quot httpwwwepaLgovscram001tt22htmsc 22222 Wquot 0 w I00000 From the model we know that the concentration is equal to emissions Ethylene wind speedsigma zsigma y Wind Nurmallzed airs4 z ll035 speed tends to be more variable than um that of the sigmas Resulting in the following formula Normalized ConcentrationWind Speed Patterns appeared in the data after the VOC was normalized An example of emerging patterns can be seen in the d before top and after bottom quot39 normalization plots Ethylene at the Deer Park Site How the Wind Affects the Data quotarms I i zed no 325225 550357 275425 ethylene 1073 554 L34 1 395 555 477 mm Sheed e a Irs482 353 2 Ethyl ene onoas as 9 ooo ene During the MunSumner Manths airsqazonoss bnnrmal Manual Ethylene airs4nzol loss Numal Ixad son w r var bnnmal t Numal nunng the Summer mman airs43201I039 var hrmrmal Nuna But Why Not a 1Hr Max maxaue F0 39 3Hr Daily Max Vs 1Hr Daily Max Many runaway 1hour observations cause this statistic to violate standards when in fact the PM concentrations are under control Can Toxic Release Trends in the Petroleum Industry be Explained Jeffrey A Thomas Darious J Brooker amp HoLing Cheng Urban Indicators Using Data to Generate Information quotA Urban Land 1975 1986 1992 ZEIEIEI Phoenix Urban Population Density 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 Annual Congestion Costs per Capita 600 00 400 00 200 00 0 00 Dollars J 198D 199D ZEIEIEI I A Possible Summer Trend Visual Breakup of Season Summer Red Winter Blu maxaveB 80 I i I 1 01011993 07011998 01011999 01011999 01012000 07012000 01012c date 5555 9 m y wine s Summers alone are experiencing a negative trend Temporarv Coincidence Humhai aI Hunk ying In E39uumtl ca wl h Ali liln lralli39tgl Ea mnlmt u s abm the Larval ul he gang in mm HEMhay I1IJ3 llmu Hz My NAME I 1 J I 50 39I III 154 Mi Iiilquot aquot High IJ39II39I39I39I39J JI39E gran Ljnfmla39n39h39n Jrc gul39 39n39h39f39 IrH39J I39l39 n39lrjrrmm ff 4 urnJ Armin 1hr Rl Liu A View From Space May 9 1998 139 le 1mm was 1le America or May 09 19 mm mm Bmwnslen szr Rin Gram Valloy Area 3m Cane Site Locallon C8D 25 59 23 N 9T29 JEquotW U M M Iquot 0 UI MU U15 H17 4M W IC39H EE quot21 III 51 5 1 U5 5 m W SM 5 Fl WI W m 3 W m Hmmm Greater Bengan Field Kuwait City taken from sace Simulated PIN DEX Greater Burgan Fire Storm Kuwait City Simulated PINDEX I IVHH concentration m er the Fustcrn I 15 during the smoke CVL III 39m mlpnnmm 1 1 luc North Carolina s Air Awareness Program Ozone Forecast Center httpdaqstatencusOzone aner nAQ J Hiekory iTriangla new Waunwhv Tues14y Wollllatdav 052mm on 052703 0528113 I AOI35 quotquotquot AD3 p 39 quot tunarlone Tuesday WedlleEd iy Tuesday Wednesday as 2 r05 Mm M 0521 u3 son4n A ADI w m pquot m p Aul 55 ADI 3 AM Tuesday 0522 20 s Irintl Area Air may in v Asked Ono ons Forocns x ms 0 Mornlnq sunnu A n k EPA S AIRNOW Office of Air Quality Planning amp Standards a hFgtWea9irn man hequot may Pur Qualm In AIRNOWS link to Ozone Mapping Archives httpwwwepagovairnowmaparchhtm U 3 Envinuunnnul Plutonium my AlRNow Recem Mummy i Cnrlad Us i Pm Vasim Search i 2002 Ozone Mapping Project Archives oRetrieve archived ozone maps by clicking on a highlighted a re a Getting an Ozone Mapping for the East Coast Area quot 20039 39 1 httpwwwepa 39 hrml us Environmental thc on Agncy lumlwrmvzmun SualeL Ozone Mapping Archives for the East Coast North Carolina northwards to Maine httpwwwepagovcgl bInalrnowcg Ozone Map Archives East minim Ozone 8hour Peak Values for the East on Thursday August 15 2002 3hour Average Peak Concentration Good Mailerate Unhealthy for Sensitive Groups Unhea thy Very Unhea thy August 15 2002 Ozone 1hour Peak Values for the East on Thursday August 15 2002 1hour Average Peak Concentration IIIEl pph 519 pph Ell99 pph 1lII11III pph 111124 pph 125 pph august 15 2012 Ozone Animation for the East on August 15 2002 East Maps for August 15 2002 7 mm Dzune Animatinn Moderate Enhgai thyifnr ensltwe Group5 39Unhea thy Very Unhealthy August 15 20B 220 pm EDT Department of Natura Resources for Georgia httpdnrstategaus httpstategausdnr 922 margin mum Departmeli t of Nalllral Resources zwmummul TODAV39S FEATURE Anusum mm 9m mu RUlESk Rznuu ws pzmru mwzs ENEINEFRIHE m Pre ervatiml Genrg a Online 7 Mav 12716 1003 Lubsmurnuu mumsan vunnun mam nuns mm mm 1 smmm leu quotmane Emummsz mu Cnmll Mama 5 I 39quot quotI Georgia s Environmental Protection Division httpl www5tategausdnrenviron Environmental Proleciion mm or cormrrs imunmrm at mm quotW m GE lll mm I11 Gcorga EnnrormcrialPrcichcn Dmmn Rips pm39nda m Tmmm Georg mam wit a am an cleanwzmheaithy1vzs am pm pmdunuv land by amng compliance with m39imrmcntal im and 9 asnshng 01112 0 do than pmfor abetter EDD EVENT LEN Hill15 11 l MW Aii Piu ec39inn mu Heainwuizs iPNU Fa quotm5 vi pm u EmaEmmammmonnmn 21m ther K113 Dm Smiel 52 EasiTowe Adams no 303 I eephone 404 57 5947 or 333 373 5947inl m utsid m minis ma Admin Fax 404 651 577 Tia11mm tin aii Dimckx i To gon than a a or mmonmzmai arablbms Aiabam r CccsarTal oosa AC1 RverEasn Ccmgm Table of animus Georgia Department of Natural Resources Air Quality Information httpwwwairdnrstategausampindexhtm 0 apmlnanl nf Nlmrll Resnurcn IwirimlnIml Prntat nn vi1nlAir Pratquotinn Erlmll w AmbientIInnitnringPrngzmnr tsanzimmet auphmeeP39ogamManager In the iable beow r rm r measwe ofa xegm s ar quality Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Yesterday Smog Forecast for Atlanta Georga MonitorSpecific 8hour averages for Atlanta at the Conyers Station Metropolitan Atlanta Ozone Monitoring Sites Tnilzw39s Readings ppm x 1m mug ENE at EUNVEFS un 052703 L150 mom was w LCM 0 39 139 1a 24 E a m u L Tim EET Today39s Reading ppmv x lmur mug at l n u l Summary The graphics and tabular presentations summarized in this lecture tell a story and communicate environmental information effectively I Examples were prepared by both professional statisticians amp undergraduate students A picture is worth a 1000 words 41 N j TSP Federal Reference Method unm PM 10 HIM amp continuous PM 25 HIM continuous amp Sneoiateu RGQHWGQ a cg aca v95 E Total SllSllBIlllBll Particulates llllllllllllll and everything that can oat lll SllSIlBllll lll air Ilas llBBII lll use Slll ll the 1910 s ll State Standard x Particulate Matter Will a mean aerodynamic diameter IBSS than III euual Ill 10 micrometers lllll since earlv 1990 s 1 x 1 PM 10 1 T l I Mammy Particulate Lab I 1E 252 39 quot allp fpture umldlt 39 PM 25 I ll 25 was dictated Illl EPA ill the Federal Register ill 1997 Mill the hacking Ill IIIBII PI BSiIIBIII cli l ll Precision Pair Filter based T he P am Ms Rm in ea mn PM 25 Balance e TEOM is a continuous sample l 39L I x Tapered Element Oscillating Microbalance ll 3 Hm m Mm mgs I w L m T ll 1 PM 25 Speciated Sampler pg 2 5 PM 25 SSW W7an Estimated Annual Mean PM 25 24 Hour Concentrations for Januaw 2000 through December 2002 From each county39s one day ormreeday mammring sue wnh the mgham mean Companm a cannula Mean Color Concentration Annual Samara Counled I 115 7 lt2 a Wen sew 5 I 12 11 5 Moderawy Eelnw m I a 5 15 Balaw s M 151715 Above 2 I 37454 Modevatew Above a I lt55 7 16 Wen Above 2 NOTE Namasmu am one 01 more of 12 ca endar quanevs 0 vahd sampm occurred 7 n Av A p a m 739 6 NEWS W chpsuznshum N a n e 39 SE mm a 39 chavwmt cunm LWW 39 d quotmmquot Le WW a m PM 55 Norfolk Vlrglnl Hmsv KJ I M2 Jua a QS u nlk m Ham Y lief A umherlnn Beamquot nabewm Qme an ehunL 7 Cnn quotMlle Beach BMW 39 39 e eamhemcm 39 Ewe S Smga er mass m EM Mes 411 W l L NORTH CAROLINA PM 25 SPECIATION DAQ Sites F Statewide Avg Concentration 176 uglm3 327 samples 1I2I2002 12282002 El Nitrate I Sulfate El A m mo nium Organic carbon l Elemental carbon E Crustal component D Other E E Lm M m r mg M anqu Salem Raanore r c color a A W N a mask 2 Ens m Mum fixquotasp m o Johns gevsvm geanrnslnwn 39 a 39 e Va k reVee y Lancaster 1 quot 39 Benn umhennn neemw I ha W H r u c He Mewheny avh 27 r Ilmm m am Ahreenwnnd v a 9 e um v CW mmmn We E n j Lynchburg 39 1ng A W 9 aer IghtsH PeW H Haml I 39 WEQDMJ S3 lllzmshur 39 Hampton w 5 Morrg vwm lk sunn ww a ush mm Mann Deanna2k zheth o V I Greemlle Md 1 gt 59w colasbprq wk w Kmslnn New Bern nvnlef 9 Seaman Cn n mm quotMlle Beach How to get the Data Steve Few J Final Project Report William F Hunt Jr W Outline Executive Summary Intr0ductionBackground lt gtObjectives Methods and Analysis C0nclusions and Recommendations Executive Summary ltgtBriefly describe what you found Dr Ellis Cowling turn significant results into simple sentences Capture the attention of the decision maker Three Projects amp Three Teams NC Dept of Env amp Natural Resources Project Did reductions in nitrogen oxides emissions from utilities reduce fine particulate matter levels in North Carolina II f hi I win L j gt 7 V are 5 Li 3quot 3 Q USEPA Office of Environmental Information Project An Exploratory Analysis of Lead Data Bases to Help Identify the Next Major Source to Reduce to Improve Blood Lead Levels in Children I mlac ll A Mu quot39 l 3 USEPA Office of Air Quality and Planning Standards Crustal Matter Exploring the Differences Between Ambient Air Samples and Emissions Inventory F 39 51 ll I39ll l NCDENR Project Can meteorologically adjusted ozone air quality trends identify the impact of 7the nitrogen oxides utility reductions quot fix Need to describe the difficulty in determining trends because of the impact of meteorology lt9 Discuss the multitask approach to working on this problem Ozone Adjusted trends George amp Jie NOX Emission Trends Tim Finger and Bull s Eye Charts for identifying location of sources Adrienne BEIS Model for explaining the biogenic effect Kristen ltgt Discuss ho you will approach the problem next semester Q Work done for the NCDENR Mr George Bridgers NCDENR Project Can meteorologically adjusted ozone air quality trends identify the impact of the nitrogen oxides utility reductions quot lt9 Describe the purpose of this project Can the impacts of meteorological variables high temperature average relative humidity and maximum solar radiation be removed from ozone air quality trends Is there a common impact effecting ozone levels at air monitoring sites in North Carolina New Jersey and Maryland Has there been a major reduction in NOx emissions from utilities Can the direction and location of major sources responsible for high ozone be identified using Finger and Bull s Eye plots Can the BEIS Model help explain observed residual ozone trends over the ozone season after the effect of meteorological variable have been removed NCDENR Project Can meteorologically adjusted ozone air quality trends identify the impact of the nitrogen oxides utility reductions quot 7 Discuss the Data Sets CASTNET NCDENR State Climate Office Meteorological Data NOx UTILITY Emission Data ltgt Describe the Analysis Describe your model Describe the Finger and Bull s Eyequot Plots ltgt Describe the Results lt ConclusionsRecommendations An Exploratory Analysis of Lead Data Bases to Help Identify the Next Major Source to Reduce to Improve Blood Lead Bevels irrChildren Introduction ltgt Need to describe the impact of lead on health especially children O Focus on the California EBLL levels 2003 versus 2006 Discuss the QA issue Discuss your regression analyses What relationships have you found Discuss how you will apjproach the problem next semester expan to additional States lt Work done for the USEPA s Office of Environmental Information Dr Barry Nussbaum An Exploratory Analysis of Lead Data Bases to Help Identify the Next Major Source to Reduce to Improve Blood Lead Bevels irrChildren Introduction ltgt Describe the purpose of this project Use exploratory analysis of multiple publicly available data bases such as blood lead levels in children the Toxic Release Inventory air and water quality data and census data to gain a better understanding of the lead problem affecting the children of our nation What can we say about the 2003 vs 2006 data o How do the EBLL rates compare 2003 vs 2006 o What factors best explain the 2006 EBLL rates Can we identify the next major source affecting children An Exploratory Analysis of Lead Data Bases to Help Identify the Next Major Source to Reduce to Improve Blood Lead Ievels irrChildren Introduction Discuss the Data Sets Blood lead levels in children Toxic Release Inventory Census data etc lt gtDescribe the Analysis Describe your model Describe the Results lt gtConclusionsRecommendations USEPA Office of Air Quality and Planning Standards Crustal Matter Resolving the Particulate Matter Emission InventoryAir Quality Discrepancy 7 ltgt Explain the difference between fine PM emission inventories and PM fine ambient air quality measurements Q Purpose Explain the discrepancy between emission inventories of naturally occurring crustal matter based upon engineering estimates when compared with the total estimated emissions of fine particulate matter and the actual measured concentrations of crustal matter as a fraction of the total measured fine particulate matter Why does the emission inventory say that crustal emissions are 30 percent of the total inventory while measured crustal matter are 5 to 10 percent of the measured fine particulate matter USEPA Office of Air Quality and Planning Standards Crustal Matter Resolving the Particulate Matter Emission InventoryAir Quality Discrepancy 7 ltgt Approach Conduct an exploratory analysis of many factors regional seasonal weekly various meteorological conditions etc to try and determine the reason or reasons for this discrepancy ltgt Discuss the EPA Data Sets O Describe the Exploratory Data Analysis Describe your model Describe the Results ltgt Conclusions Recommendations rlx Introduction Background ltgt Multi Purposes Answer questions posed by NCDENR USEPA Office of Environmental Information and the USEPA Office of Air Quality Planning Can the impacts of meteorological variables high temperature average relative humidity and maximum solar radiation be removed from ozone air quality trends Use explorato anal sis of multiple publicly available data bases such as lood ead levels in children NHANES the Toxic Release Inventory and census data to ain a etter understanding of the lead problem affecting t e children of our nation Explain the discrepancy between emission inventories of naturally occurring crustal matter based upon engineering estimates when compared with t e total estimated emissions of fine particulate matter and the actual measured concentrations of crustal matter as a fraction of the total measured fine particulate matter ltgt Discuss the data Who collected it What does it consist of Methods and Analysis 67 ltgt Describe the statistical methods you employed Comment on building the SAS data sets What does your analysis show It must includesupport what you say in the executive summary Attach you SAS code and SAS summaries in an Appendix Only include the most important SAS output in this section Conclusions ltgtWhat have you found Are there limitations in the conclusions you reached What recommendations do you make lt gtDo you have recommendations for future analysis 3A Short History of Air Pollution William F Hunt Jr Introduction Air Pollution has been around a long time Roman philosopher Seneca wrote of the heavy air of Rome in 61 AD Edward I of England banned the burning of sea coal in craftsman s furnaces be prohibited because of foul smelling fumes 1306 Elizabeth I of England banned the burning of coal while Parliament was in session Air Pollution Episodes Meuse Valley Belgium 1930 Donora PA 1948 lt gtPoza Rica Mexico 1950 London 1952 New York 1953 to 1966 ltltgtgtBhopal India 1984 Some Systems of the Human Body Effected lt gtRespiratow Cardiovascular Skin and eyes Other Examples of Health Effects on Respiratory System Bronchitis acute and chronic Pumonary emphysema Lung cancer pneumoconiosis c0ugh chest pain Examples of Health Effects from Air Toxics Cancer Respiratory irritation Reproductive toxicity ltgt Developmental effects Pulmonary toxicity Liver toxicity Changes in Society and the Economy Population growth Industrialization Growth and distribution of wealth Changing social attitudes Environmenta activism Local Control Initiatives lt gt 1661 London smoke control 1880 s Chicago and Cincinnati municipal regulation of smoke emissions 1940 s Pittsburgh public protest against smoke changes in fuels combustion practices lt9gt1980 s Denver Metropolitan Air Quality CouncH State Control Initiatives 1940 s California and LA County study causes and effects of smog 1952 Oregon first state air pollution control agency 1980 s growth of state air toxic programs lt9gt1990 s Regional Approaches NOX SIP Ca Federal Research and studies lt gtNeed for National perspective pollution respects no State borders USEPA established in 1970 Major Legislative Landmarks lt gtAir Pollution Control Act 1955 Clean Air Act 1963 Air Quality Act 1967 Clean Air Act 1970 Amendments to CAA 1977 Amendments to CAA 1990 Clean Air Act of 1970 USEPA Air Quality Management NAAQS SIPs NESHAPNSPS lt gtCitizen Lawsuits Clean Air Act Amendments of 1977 Nonattainment lt6gtPSD Strengthened mobile source provisions VisibilityStratospheric Ozone Clean Air Act Amendments of 1990 26gtMajor change in approach to attainmentnonattainment Overhaul of hazardous air pollutants lt gtMarket based incentives Enhanced ozone monitoring PAMS Criteria Pollutants Regulated under NAAQS Ubiquitous Healthbased standards Standards apply to all States equally lt SIPs Criteria Pollutants lt gtParticulate Matter Lead Sulfur Dioxide Carbon Monoxide Nitrogen Dioxide ltltgtgtOzone ground level Hazardous Air Pollutants lt0gtAny of 189 chemicals and compound groups listed in CAAA of 1990 as hazardous air pollutants List can be revised as new substances are found Some Hazardous Air Pollutants ltgt Asbestos ltgt Heptachlor Benzene Hydrochloric Acid Carbon Tetrachloride Mercury Chlordane ltgt Methanol ltgt Chloroform ltgt Phenol ltgt Formaldehyde lt gt Toluene Environmental Effects of Air PoHu on Ecosystem effects Property damage QualityofIife effects Globa climate change Ecosystem Effects Acidification of lakes and stream Wildlife Aquatic life Population of endangered species Vegetation Damage forests crops ornamental plants Other natural resource damage Property Damage lt0gtAcid rain damaged buildings ornamental plants etc Ozone causes cracking of rubber nylon polymer plastics etc Particulate matter causes soiling Sulfur dioxide causes deterioration of metal and stone QualiWof Life Effects lt gtReduced visibility acid rain and smog Reduced enjoyment of outdoors Added work cleaning of soiled property lt gtDetrimenta economic effects damaged cash crops Visibility Shenandoah National Park Yosemite National Park visual range in the top photo is 25 km visual range in the top photo is 111 km visual range in the bottom photo is 180 km visual range in the bottom photo gt 208 km Interagency Monitoring of Protected Visual Environments TNetwork IMPROVE Outlc Charmt l39tlu 939 Rumba Visual Range kmi Visibility Trends Visibility Trends for Western Visibility Trends for Eastern US Class I Areas 1990 1999 US Class 1 Areas 1992 1999 2539 r g a 8051 1951er 203 V q o 7 4 90 film A x Been vslnllh 0 V i rags l IT 296 km E 29 mm 5 rs 93 kquot 0 Um Harm madame shim m I w l I I is 119133 km 239 lab 39izquot39f lquotquotm39 mo WonA shirt 3 lIC39 WJM nabm le a HH Israel 38 km 7 9151 am i V Wurst Ilstlty g o M 39 7 I g g o 4 mngu is AJ PJ km 3U 5 LI Hnnuu 1F a H l fh II gt HH H Ffd 39 I I I I C I I I Nam ramle 93 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 Year Year Global Climate Change The Greenhouse Effect Somafhelnttamdradlanonpasses hMmemdesomls absubedmdre emmadnall aimingng moiecmes Thee ectotmlsrsnmnn man39sammmmr Global Temperature Changes 18802000 Globa mean surface temperatures have increased O510 F since the late 19th century The 20th century39s 10 warmest years all occurred in the last 15 years of the century Depaxlmes in temperalme in C from We 19611990 average 0 a 7 H H L H H LN Hw TN x LIVWI m rlw H HHH w W Dwecl emperatures 7 men 1an was V920 mac 2000 Damrtures in iempemlnre in c mums 195149911 avemge a a S Fl v FIGUHE 2 3 7 Dwecuemperamres Fraxydata 1800 INTERGOVERNMEN L PANEL ON CLIMAT UN Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 1990 Report Little Ice Age Medieval Warm Period Tmo39alurc Jimmy l C I I l I l l l 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 Luvlam 3 m 51 am lam 51 my mm in km N n 4 r r L Cr 0 Temperature Reconstruction htt enwiki ediaor wiki Historical Records Medieval warm period lt gt Tree Rings a amp Reconsmxted Temperature sea son 29w lt9 Lake Sediments yr 9 lt9 Corals yr 5 lt93 Ice Cores yr 5 Q Pollen 20 yrs Others 100500 mmquot 0 XE m 0 m I um um mm 11 mm new UN Reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2001 Report I Instrumental dale AD 1902 lo 1999 1990 Report Reconstruaion AD 1000to1980 R l l39 0 1 d nggvsug j m 10eoa gsggg e 1998 Inslrumental value 3 0 5 Man slmpaclElegIns ea 39 LIttle Ice Age m 2 Eg l L I l E 393 E quot39 MedIeval Warm 53 E E PerIod 2 g 05 I I r I l f 1000 1200 1400 1600 1300 2000 10 I l 000 1200 1400 1600 1800 20 Year 2001 UN Report from the IPCC Wegman Review for US House Committee on He Energy amp Commerce ltgt Mann et al misused statistical methods lt gt Problem with Peer Review Process Researchers not interacting with statistical community ltgt Authors of policy related science assessments should not assess their own work Should involve interdisciplinary teams 10 value 0 uu Man39s Impact Begins Nonhern Hemisphere anomaly quot2 relative to 1961 to 1990 I 9 u Published by Mann Bradley amp Hughes in Nature 1998 amp Geophysical Research Letters in 1999 I 1800 Variations of ihe Ear zh39s surface temperature year 1000 to year 2100 Departures in emperature in c from the1990 value munam Norman Henumem proxy u39ala swam moon s 3H SEES envame 2an nzt39mnmval Prqemms obse vzimns gt Ems shaw me Moe 1200 mix 1400 IPCC INTERGOVERNMENT L PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE i 92 2000 21m 7 I592a SYR FIGURE 91b Go mpa s n between GDP and39coz emissibn s for selected countries 7 GDP o kl39r ne Billions push US dollars PPF 51mm 1 970 Oil crlsls End 039 SYR FIGURE 5 6 Soviet Unian PPP Power Purchase Parity ER oVERNMENTALPANEL5N GLIMATEBHAN E Air Emissions Trends Continued Progress Through 2005 http wwwepagovairtrends 2006econ emissionshtml Comparison of Growth Areas and Emissions 2wquot 195 4 Gross Domech Produc quot I al r oquot173 150 r i 1 z L 14 V39ehlcirz MI 95 Tv39aveled 50 r 0 5095 gt 708090965597ESWN0102030405 A Modeling Uncertainty A XTHF39 2812002 am9 zeizooz EFDL 231200 no a wrrm war a I m39 vainso BAMM 251200 UKM zaooooz AEMN 2805002 LBAR 28 200 canu NHC an39iEGCC aws 2312 GFDN 2800002 I m quot ampSoz mp mum 5m 79mm 7 it 3 m i 7 k mmzuizm BAMM nrvzm iw iZUOZ WN 290600 45M k m zwsw sm u 39w on GFDN 290600 3m I Am a 5 C am 7 2 L2N 9 hm 19x 39 m m Kantquot v m as 17N 33N t g ZEN ism a 2739 ZEN 2w Vv 101 quotX 97 DDW 95W 9W 35W BDW 75W 7 6 W m 7 2m I ZIN 85W 54W 32W EDW 78W 76W 74W 72W 7DW SEW 0 NHC Advisories and Cnunty Emergency Management smemems Supersade This Pmduct We graphic shouid complement not repiace NHC discussions weatnewsrwmmov Ir anything on thia graphic causes mnmeiom ignore the entire product museumm 18M i A v is 90w am am 51w 75w 75w 72w 59 SSW 65w saw 57w 139 stag1 0 V NHC AdVisorIes and County Emergency Management Statements Supersede This Product i 39 M This rcphlc should complement not replaca NHC discussions weather fwmdgov If anything on this graphic causes cenfusion ignore the entire product amps COLA1E5 Modeling Uncertainty Fay 81808 Tropical Storm Fay h Hull luluorlroulll39 2F39MEDT Mon Aug 182008 N quot1 Models Potnts12 hours apart GFDL Ghours V F Inltialized on Mon 83900A EDT UKMET Inltiahzed on Mon 839OUAM EDT Initialized 20 Mon BDDAM EDT I i 39 Initialized on Mon 800AM EDT NArv InlIlaIIZ ed on Mon BOOAM EDT B AM Initialized on Mon 8 00 PM EDT 3 Initiallzed on Mon B 00 PM EDT 39 lnitialized on Mon 8 00 PM EDT SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL InItIaIiZed 12 GMT UG18 2008 00 24 48 72 96 120 hours 57 71 3539 32 31 31 MPH Modeling Uncertainty H6 GUSTAV 82608 i XTFIF 2512002 BAMD ZGlZDOZ EFDL T JCH 35 0172 I BAMM 25 I 2002 NHC 1SUUZ ZSOEDOZ H J J1 quot m rquot M UKM 2800002 AEMH 28050432 LGEM 5 261200 NGFS 256500 HWRF 2606002 CLP5 32M or ull info see 93w 96w 37w 64w afw 78w 75w 7 w Storrr 07 NHC Advisories and County Emergency Management Statemenis supersede this product A v ruphic should complement not replace NHC discu sic weathe sfwmmgov If anything on this graphic causes con F f ion ignore the entire product thmysfwmdgovsfwrndcommonimugesweatherplotshtml Assignment Lead Monitoring Issue William F Hunt Jr Visiting Senior Scientist Background 28 years ago 1978 automotive sources were the major contributor of air lead emissions in the atmosphere Lead exposure occurs through inhalation and ingestion of lead in food water soil or dust Excessive exposures leads to neurological impairments seizures mental retardation andor behavioral disorders Low exposures can effect fetuses amp children may suffer from central nervous system damage Airborne lead can have adverse impacts on wild and grazing animals EPA wanted to know how lead air monitoring devises should be sited Study Design Ambient lead Pb and PM measurements were collected from April 17 1980 till May 7 1980 Three setback distances Three vertical heights PADDOCK RD mcnsu AVE 2 LOCATION OF SITE Figure 2 Map of Route 562 relative to 1 75 and 171 N LEEEND WPLENE LOCATION KEDIMI STRIP PD VEHICLES PEN DAVMGUNDED 3 lt 17210 quot212 3000 V 1000 VPU PADDOCK an READING RD mm 23000 vvu 26000 VPD moon vvn lt lt r ROUTE 562 Momma IATKRAH 31000 WI I755 I6 000 WI 32000 VPD l7552 I7ZD7 H000 W 5000 VPD EADING RD Figure 2 2 Schematic of traffic contributing to Route 562 LEGEND MIGHT TO AIR IN TAKE39 mum quot05 118 v 11 meters HONiTW H05 256 53 utters WNITOR I05 3710 105 I lt 72ml KEDIM STRIP LAME DIVIDER TMR NO Z WITDR N0 1 WITOR N054 5 I 6 wNITOR NO I YDHER ND KNITDR l0 3 NITN HEATHER 7 I l INSTRUMENTS SE BACK FORUM ND 2 WHITOR N0 1 l TWER ND 3 IUNITDR MO 10 WHO I0 9 munon NO 5 Z1 1 m SETBACK 2 B m SETBACK ROUTE 55 NDRHOOD LATERAL Figure 2 4 Schematic uf samph ng location Questions Are there significant differences in set back distances from roadways and at different vertical heights for both lead and TSP If there is a difference can we determine the optimum location for monitoring lead given safety vandalism and averaging time of the standard Are the USEPA recommendations for siting lead monitors reasonable or do they need to be changed Would they be reasonable for particulate Homework Students work as a team to analyze the data interpret the results and address questions raised Each team will give a short oral briefing using Power Point and handouts on September 11 Tues Each team will prepare a short written report due on September 25 Thurs Health Effects of Fine Particles Dr Luanne Williams NCDENR Parti les a Chracterlzd Physical features Mass on filter ugm3 size 25 greater surface area or 10 micrometers Sources primary and secondary formation windblown dust and diesel exhaust primary reaction of sulfatesnitrates released from power plants secondary Chemical compositionmode of action Chemical irritants acids nitrates sulfates organic carbon compounds peroxides acid aldehydes Catalysts in reactions nickel vanadium copper Immunologic stimulus bacterial endotoxins pollen fungal spores animal dander dust mite and cockroach antigen Particle Deposition Larger particles 39gt PMTO deposit in the upper respiratory tract nose and throat Smaller inhalable particles 3 lt PM1O penetrate into the lungs PMZ5 more so Smallest particles ultrafines PM may enter bloodstream Deposited particles may accumulate react be cleared or absorbed Types ii tuds Epidemiologyfield Realworld exposures short and longterm including sensitive groups Potential confounders copollutants need to be addressed Most PM studies this type Controlled human exposure Exposures and confounders controlled only Healthy subjects few members of sensitive groups Addresses least severe health endpoint for ethical reasons Animal Exposures and confounders controlled Extrapolation to humans high dose exposures Interpretation of Evidence Consistency Across Studies Similar PM health effects observed in numerous studies with diverse populations environments pollutant mixes r Similar respiratory and cardiovascular effects Pyramid of Effects Death Hospitd Ad n39ssions Doctor visits 4 lung function changes immne cell responses heart rate or heart rate variability responses Effcts n Pulol Health Premature deaths from heart and lung disease Hospital and emergency room admissions Doctor office visits School and work absences Medication usage Emerging evidence Lung cancer mortality Infant mortality Developmental effects in children eg low birth weight slowed lung function growth Respiratory System Effects Adverse effects Increased cases of chronic bronchitis Increased asthma attacks and bronchitis 39 Indicators of increased risk Respiratory symptoms ecreased lung funCtion Inflammation of airways Cardiovascular System Effects Adverse effects Heart attacks Cardiac arrhyth39mias Indicators of increased risk Cardiac arrhythmias Heart rate heart rate variability Blood component changes Creactive protein Fibrinogen Groups At Risk People with heart or lung disease Conditions make them vulnerable Greater particle deposition with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease COPD Older adults Greater prevalence of heart and lung disease 39 Children More likely to be active Greater psarti clze deposition than adults Developing bodies make them vulnerable Air Quality index for PM Descriptors PMZ5 Cautionary Values pgm3 Statements Moderate Unusually sensitive people should 51 100 consider reducing prolonged or heavy exertion Unhealthy for People with heart or lung disease Sensitive Groups older adults and Children should 101 150 reduce prolonged or heavy exertion tummy i 5i 1 Wm F u lw 32m E g mildew mum and new Ly omit me id 6 m or exertion