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# Strong Motion Seismology EPS 130

GPA 3.88

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This 22 page Class Notes was uploaded by Adele Hoeger on Thursday October 22, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to EPS 130 at University of California - Berkeley taught by D. Dreger in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 23 views. For similar materials see /class/226571/eps-130-university-of-california-berkeley in Earth And Space Sciences at University of California - Berkeley.

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Date Created: 10/22/15

Earthquake Prediction and Forecasting PreEvent Mitigation Prediction Presently Eviable Forecasting Causative faults Recurrence rates Empirical andor deterministic assessments of earthquake effects Probabilistic hazard estimate PostEvent Mitigation Early warning Issued before arrival of damaging ground motions ortsunami Nearrealtime Strong shaking information to help direct emergency response Basic research Improved forecasts better constrained ground motion estimates updated building code and practice aHoW autnontres to act Shortterm 7 Hours to severatweeks 7 coats ev cuatton orders protect cnttcat facmttes e Nee s precursory phenomena phyetca s 9 s 38 a s to a few ears 7 coats evacuatton orders protect cntrcat racmtres ptannrng 7 Needs precurSory phenomena recurrence rates phystcs er 7 coats prooaortrstrc statements forecasts urban ptannrng 7 Needs geotogrcan sersrnotogrc rnvestrgatrons recurrence rates phystcs e Outtook good Models of Earthquake Occurrence Cumulahve Cnseismlc sup Stress a a b c n r 2 T2 gig Historical M 6 Parkfield Earthquakes 20m Predicted to occur 1988 Future Earthquakes 1 1 850 1900 1 950 2000 2050 2004 Park eldij 2000 19830 1saa2 1950 1900 1350 0 1 7 5 3 A 5 EARTHQUAKE SERIES Fig 516 Hisrory a Paxk eld earthquakes Dasth lint is a 13mg 51 wimom me uakg solid line includes it From Baku and Mcvauy 1984 Increasing strain Dilatancy Model Based on laboratory observations of rock fracture Stage I elastic strain build up Stage II development ofmicro cracks Stage III in ux of H20 minimally hydrostatic Stage IV microcracks close amp H20 is expelled local superlithostatic Predicts a clear progression of geophysical observables that might be used for earthquake prediction geophysical L observed Dilatancy Model can quake 5 c v b a Wain or radon missian v z omen Maasurcmnms Vnm39cal Malian V 5mm cm ms w rad Valummc Swain 10 la in Numharnl my Seismic EVQWKMumh vx Time an x n v n MN man hilmwmnouwMgt gt Dm w nmmumm ismuu uudsudcm 5mm 3939 l I I I 1 y K 5mm Volumes Pull Dr H I 39 Iquot mm W i Pommy Radar Emrssmn Sllm39n Slope al mu quuuncy vs Magnch Flo Haicheng and Tangshan Haicheng 1975 739 A Ms73 0 EIectric PotentiaI l Precursors led to Chinese 5 15km fl authoritiesissuing EQ quot warning with evacuation Animal Behaviori rder 150 km I c Considerable destruction but loss of life was greatly Ground Water Chafes reduced 5 150 k u Tangshan 1976 m mm m M516 0 3 Foreshocks 200 km from Haicheng v I a m U Q I If One year later an No precursors Radon Gas No warning prediction 78 km 1 j gt 250000 killed Japanese Precursors l Ii llw PreEvent Quiescence a t w 8 5w wa 7 DlS39UHCE i0 km EM Precursors warm 2 LOWFREQUENCY MAGNL mnqu mcmm or we M u w i mummns MA mam EARTHQUAKE At a mama A Bem dix 7 1 mm M E has K A man m4 039 1 Wm I ma learllo39Y 5mm Um mu quot w I 1994 Northridge no detectable 0 anomalies at 80 km d39stance 2004 Park eld no detectable anomalies above back ground quot sunspot and seasonal signals r H ghxmma en 1 banId nr nhdun munb lemmas quotmy mu 7 m buds u lamest um m m 0mm am n mum m 5 mm b 1 um M I 1 e mm m w nulhplriu by m e um 39 smmuciscn anvnmu unmnuAKE Funanalmv IWhere are the faults IWhat is the fault segmentation IWhat is the eaIthquake history on each f recurrence rate 7 n mxwuaw puimyoimgmm minimum We a aquot a mmqu 4m IWhat is the in uence from other nearby ealthquakes m mum increasing mobm ily 4 iunv mill gment 397 mm mquot m min Seismic Gaps Hypothesis W 39 Ruptured between 1390 and I959 Ruptured siter I959 No iixloric large carnhquake er recurd inmmpltm I Rupwmd bolero I889 Based on Frequency of small quakes Time since last large event 39i quot 739 M Sc M mum uh like Him 7 null Lm H1 L W m V 39 I a Movxnuw quot F I MAP EXPLANATION Polenllally Acllvc Faults F ulis consider u on acllvu dining Quacrnaiy391lme who I where accura oiy loomed long aasn where appmxlmnluly loczlad shall d mu 4 whurc Interred dollnd where can ash cenled uuoiy i7 Indlcams adoiiionai uni certainly Evidence oi hisioiic oliset indioaioo by ear or earthquake n socialud worn or 0 kn displacement c sed by creep oi DOSSIble creep k Aerial photo lineaments noi lield checked based on youmiui geomolnhlc and other lealures believed to b e lhe results ol Dualmnary39taullmg Special Slunles Zone Boundaries 0 0 h poini so a lo dellne special sudies zone scgmenls 77 0 Seawavd uroieclion at Lone boundary Forecasting earthquakes using Gutenberg Richter Assumptions Seismicity occurs randomly in time Average rates of seismicity can be quanti ed Nointer dependency b etween previous nearby earthquakes Model Poisson distribution PlAt 172 D At forecast interval eusually 30 years D A is the ofevents ofa given magnitude in ayear Size Frequency Relationship 1900 Greai gt3 higher Maior 7 79 ng sis MnderateE 59 Light v 4 9 Minor 3 39 Micro 1 a From m m mlmlslnulmlnmw mmwwss Log N a b M GutenburgRichter Relationship Log number a bmagnitude Gulenherg ichler Relminnship 1year 1a 1800 given month is And in a given hour P800 There are 800 magnitude to 559 events globally per year The probability of at least one event in this magnitude range in a 767 P8002717 e 1 The probability of at least 1 event in a given day is P80065 17 e 089 Example 7 7 m 36514971 2 7009 Northern California Seismicity Rates RTHERN A ENTHAL CALIFORNIA SEISMICITY RATES m e Puc m Probability in on eqyr day We month ym r decade 30 74 8 7G 00 100 100 100 278 73 41 100 100 100 103 2 8 18 58 100 100 100 385 1 1 7 l 27 100 L44 0 39 27 11 76 100 100 H536 0 15 10 44 42 100 0200 0 055 0 38 L7 18 86 100 00745 0020 0 14 062 72 53 00273 00076 0053 023 27 24 57 Sam L er Edd wns vms rm Prusrmj 1mm mum 1 1 PW 1 mm m M rnrmwwx L but F u 1 r Fm Wham 4 M WA E 3 a 39 39 MM 1 Freni 5 h twp mm mmquot a Pcewze u a Mfmsnw mud awva 33139 PEF a PE H11 PEF undo I Tu Fi buun Hm bark wax chi is m Fm A m absnlulg Wuhan of wt M4 u marina j Przl39lL I H Lu Om m MAmi c ya L wl PUFF Pm PFra PFPEIF FtEF FE 7 H 39 Pm 43m Mulwdk exclusive and P F5L39 New Pie Pzr 39FW 54 ka iuuphumm PanEFr um Planwan l PEF Pm PF l snn rri uscn aiw nEEm murmurs PHUEAHIUIV Earthquakes are not mutually exclusive eg in a given time window there are probabilities for occurrence of an NHF and RC events If in this time period the RC fault slips it is not true that the NHF event cannot occur They are statistically independent balms 2 Imile an nmulngwbmlllly 4 mm mm Shamems wwwms pmch MM minimise m in m r 1T Hm an 1 vt 3 wk r h F 9 rm mumm mp 415 H Hm r A Prdm H nl l m wads TIEFMWEPIFIEPhIEF Cw 65ml 1 n valuu Prgrm F IE WFH I a u ML Am I uquot A I W m m mm m um m u lo4mm WK k r mm A Hm mmvrm momth Pm Hammad mm r g quot04 m nmomma w 98 rwrn w g m r H 1 MN m rva FM 39 V QmzslnLk Av xr AmV Secm139L7 f lE 1 ru1v l w ro r H 1 m r mm 5 t m MLLL mmhmlmck MM Wml nmL cl wmwlmk M aksuML L 1 Jlg a A V raktt lnd du L lc quot39 From our Homework 19m Mnrgzn Hill Seq wawmwuem v mmmm mm v nxasusss nun mm unnum AFTERSHOCK FORECAST Mm 7Jxn 1002 0110 I M I39ll l39 vmlw u r39 5 L l w mtIn Scum lruln l mL r mmum mmu1mm ralllllm i imrmmm immlmmw Mimilmmuluul IHiit illeil39illmuii llmnuui mm gtl t l n lmn mluinmlmu munm mm SIIUCK Mnquot 7ln2lllll AM Pm i GNI39I39UIMC 5t J7 km r 23 min V 275 1ch mm or In A M39IUN r39riruxnncks Mllumllull39 s and munl ltlh pmimunu i mung m p mimeMl mum r MI 7 min Murmurs Il rm me39rnIj MABSIIUCIL Mm mm m mum nmuhlluckwill in ill or lllllllt wuucmc Hmqu uwmmn mmimlmnmumn s WEAK AI rransliouus m J In St l x I l hklol mu my hu lcll locally Poisson Model Assumes random occurrence Probability of occurrence does not change with time Can be applied to seismicity catalogs Time Dependent Model Assumes quasiperiodicity of characteristic seismicity takes into account rate and time of previous event Probability of occurrence accumulates with passing time Applied to faultspecific cases m Mary 5 m 14 em WA mm 43 IntKL r1w44 L kuVJ 3amp14 WA A Fmij Hg 41 N a 51 qu manual 9 rm 5 7 gm Jymm 1quot hu 1mm 1 l gt meu 1 n Tun nu 1 w n quotma 1 Mn w Pallet Creek Recurrence WTHQUAKEDATES a 5 Dam on m I no mm to u quotmung m 5 rnn ml ohmI m min mam elm 39 39 39 M In Fm m mmquot mm bu indium mm u e MH39II mu pdf nisnibuiiuns vs inmval vim 04 l l m on mm Dist anNnmialDlsu E Data 1 n2 1 umuiauw NamalDisu Cvumulalwa L mumal ulsn W mu sue a on we nu ma 3w zoo oa immi Yinquot lyers immi mu yaw son Poisson vs Conditional Probability Poisson Probability probability T elapsed time WWW m s 7 m We hm m2 an 5 mm mm mm rquukss n lncrens ng woham ly 4 mm mm sngmsms mm Site Characterization GutenbergRichter Fault 1 Putting it all together gt Fault 2 lug 1nnun1 number nfcvenls Background events I Incmusmg magmludr Ground Motion Attenuation Site Speci c Hazard lug mm mm lugPagta lug PCA mg Fog Alimmwc kmll c D USGS Hazard Map Hazam mum lnwasl Q Magniluds 55 and mm Quakes since I97 tide mm Ian t S Based on Poisson Probability ne or more events P1At17equot N Rewrite for A 7 11107 P A At 10 probability of ance in 50 years gives a return period of 17475 years We have so far assumed no fault interaction How can nearby earthquakes affect forecasts NmL gumWu edu r Ha 1 v l IL 3 y l r39 5 quot h 9 5 r fquot L x Iquotquot Ac awryAu Was Parkfield in a Stress Shadow Modded Nminduued Co was Mass Gamma NI 1932 quot43 Newl nu N Obswed setsmtntty ratn change ME km lmh Dmss up so um zap sun Mama 2 thonzz KT ternmtmn a u5 cm v5 log vats chanue http Fin 1 20 Stein et al 1992 Lead up to Landers bars u 5 Earslow 3 ledeII cw u o A Pass a o 39 an ammum A North Distance 1km Lu gem Earthq wnhm uakes 25 km Ea 1D anc 9 8 L A c R 1939 1992 4011 Istanbul P I 12541 784 400 Is nbul 4110 x n39 2quot L I ADA 9671050 900 ELACF Meanre snirne 45H20 r E Zincaf l 72017 400 instance km Fig 7 17 00196 Stein at El 21 Lead up to Izmit 2 mm 170a Mum httpIpubsusgsgovlfsl2003lfso3903Ifso3903 pdf 22

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