International Marketing MAR 4156
University of Central Florida
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25 SE 1 easuring development in ways familiar and new To achieve the Millennium Development Goals by 2015 many countries need to quickly improve their economic growth and their education and health systems their management of environmental resources and their infrastructure for water sanitation telecommunica tions and transportation Over the last 10 years developing economies have grown faster than in any period since 1965 and even faster since 2000 While the global picture is dominated by the larger economies Brazil China India Russia and South Africa recentlyjoined by the major oil exporters more are now doing well and fewer have suffered severe recessions raising average growth rates Economic growth is a clear marker of development and countries that grow usually reduce poverty But if the fruits of growth are not widely shared many poor people can be left behind even as average incomes rise Nor does economic growth guarantee that access to water will improve or that more children will attend school But failing to grow almost always makes matters worse In considering the recent progress of developing countries on many social economic and environmental indicators the Millennium Development Goals set one standard for all coun tries But country performance is influenced by many factors One is the starting point Countries starting from worse positions have the potential to make faster progress as they may benefit from the experience and technologies of more advanced economies But poor countries may also face unusual obstacles in reaching their development goals In either case comparing a country s progress over the last decade with the average progress of those starting from a similar position can help to identify countries that have made exceptional progress and those whose progress has been unexpectedly slow This section compares the progress of developing countries measured by the rate of change of selected indicators after first taking into account countries starting points The difference between actual progress and the average progress of countries starting from a similar posi tion is referred to as country performance and countries are classified as follows 0 Best performers are significantly above the average of countries with similar starting points 0 Good performers are above average yet not significantly so in a statistical sense 0 Poor performers are below the average yet not significantly so in a statistical sense 0 Worst performers are significantly below the average of countries with similar starting points Those that perform well on one indicator may not perform well on another The patterns are complex but they begin to highlight more of the diversity and sometimes the commonality of outcomes in development 2007 World Developmentlndlcators I 1 Economic growth Per capita GDP growth accelerated in low and middleincome countries in the last decade 1995 2005 as more coun tries grew at a moderate pace and fewer experienced severe recessions figure 1a And it was systematically faster in de veloping countries than in highincome countries in the last five years for the first time since the decolonization period figure 1b Current projections suggest that developing countries will continue to grow more rapidly than highincome ones in the next 25 years Based on these scenarios the develop ing country share of the global economy could rise from 23 percent of world GDP today to 31 percent in 2030 and devel oping country average incomes could increase from 16 per cent to 24 percent of those of highincome countries World Bank Global Economic Prospects 2007 But the income gap between developing and highincome economies will remain substantial and the absolute difference in percapita incomes will continue to widen Faster growth less dlsperslon among developing economies In the last decade Although developing economies as a whole are catching up with highincome economies there is little evidence of convergence between low and middleincome economies For them the relationship between per capita growth rates and initial levels of per capita GDP shows that lower initial per capita GDP was not systematically associated with higher per capita GDP growth figure 1c This tells us that coun tries start outwith roughly the same potential for economic growth Differences in performance are likely to be associ ated with policies and institutions that encourage productive investment in human social and physical capital But luck also plays an important role particularly in the small and poor countries which are more sensitive to external shocks good and bad conflicts terms of trade and the like Globalization s intense pace in the last decade in trade finance technology ideas and migration has changed the external environment forcountries Most developing countries have further integrated into world markets notably through a reduction in trade barriers and transport costs Here trade integration is measured by the ratio of imports and exports of goods and services to GDP For countries starting from Poor developing countries are not systematically catching up with rlcher ones Number of Countries 1985795 I 199572005 5 6 7 More 77 76 e5 4 tnan7 73 e2 71 D 1 2 3 4 Per caorta GDP growtn rate Note Based on 100 country ooseryatrons Source World Bank staff caicuiatrons Growth accelerated In low and mlddleIncome countrles Per caorta GDP growtnrate1995e2oo5 12 100000 Per caorta GDP 1995 PPP s log Note Based on 125 country obseryatrons Source World BanK staff caicuiatrons Countries that opened up to trade also performed better on growth Annual growtn rn GDP per caprta Note Based on market exchange rates Source World Bank staff caicuiatrons I 2007 World Development lridlcators Worst Poor Good Best Trade rntegratron perronnance Note Based on 109 country ooseryatrons Perronnance rs tne drrrerence between actual rate of cnange and average rate of cnan e of countrres startrng from srrnriar Trade rntegratron rs measured by tne ods and seryrces to GDP s Source World Bank Staff Calculation similar positions countries integrating less rapidly recorded much lower per capita GDP growth figure 1d But that does not mean that trade integration necessarily causes growth Other factors such as gains in competitiveness caused by domestic policies can cause both faster growth and increased trade Macroeconomic management also improved in the devel oping world reflected in the sharp drop in the number of coun tries with very high price inflation figure 1e The best growth performers recorded average annual inflation of 12 percent over the last decade worst performers 29 percent Cumbersome business environments also hamper growth The cost of starting a private business as a percent age of per capita income is an indicator of the opportunity for entrepreneurs to develop new economic activities and to compete with existing businesses an important force driving economic growth That cost varies from less than 5 percent to a striking 1440 percent or 14 years of per capita income in 2005 Countries that performed worst on growth in the last decade also had much higher startup costs than other countries in 2005 figure 1f Prlce lnflatlon dropped In most developing countries In the last decade 1985795 I 199572005 Number of COLll ltfleS 5710 11720 More tnan 20 Average annual inrlation an Note Based on 107 country observations Source World Bank starr calculations Less than 5 The worst growth performers have much higher costs to start a business Business startup costs as snare or per caplta lncome 2005 300 Worst Poor Good Per Caplta GDP growth performance 199572005 Note Based on 109 country observatlons Performance is tne difference between actual growth arid average growth or countries starting from slmllarposltloris in per Caplta GD Source World Bank staff calculatlons Country growth performance is benchmarked against the average growth rate for countries that started with a similar per capita GDP in 1995 in purchasing power parity terms Because initial levels of per capita GDP had little influence on growth rates over the period potential average growth is almost identical for all countries figure 1g The best and worst performers which significantly deviated from averages in one direction or the other are marked with an asterisk Among rapidly growing countries many are in Eastern Europe or are oil exporters One can also find some post conflict countries At the slow end of the spectrum are coun tries that experienced major conflicts or financial crises in the last decade are landlocked or are far from major trade routes Most of them are located in SubSaharan Africa Best and worst growth performers In annual per capita GDP growth 1995 2005 lActual growtn 1g Average growth or countries Per caplta GDP growth starting from similar position 10 Armenlz Latvlz criirias Esmriias Belarus titlivzriizs Chzd Tallklstzrl Hungary Azerhzllzn ltazaltistzris anzmhluue ote Based on 125 country ooservations Asterlsks indicate oerrormers tnat signiricantlv devlated positively or negatlvely rrom average per Caplta GDP growth of countries Wl tn similar starting points Source World Bank starr calculations 2007 World Development lndlcatorS I Poverty reduction 4 The number of people living on less than 1 a day in develop ing countries fell by more than 260 million over 1990 2004 thanks in large part to massive poverty reduction in China In contrast the number of poor people continued to increase in SubSaharan Africa rising by almost 60 million figure 1h In turn the share of the population in SubSaharan Africa living on less than 1 a day dropped from 47 percent in 1990 to 41 percent in 2004 figure 1i The Millennium Development Goal of halving the pro portion of poor people is still within reach at the worldwide level with a projected decline from 29 percent to 10 percent between 1990 and 2015 But many countries will most likely not reach it particularly those in SubSaharan Africa where average poverty rates remain above 40 percent raising con cerns of widening inequalities between regions Change in tne number or poor people 199072004 rniiiions The number of poor people decllned mostly In East Asia and Pacific 1h 100 EastAsia amp Pacific Latiri America Middle East amp South amp Caribbean North Africa Asia Europe amp SubnSariarari Central Asia Africa Source World Bank Staff Calculations Poverty rates are on the decline In South and East Asia 1i snare or population iiying on less tnan 1 a day so EastAsia amp Paeirie Source World Bank staff cal culatioris I 2007 World Development indicators The responsiveness of poverty to growth depends on the distribution of income or consumption and how it changes Many factors influence how the benefits of growth are shared health education infrastructure gender parity social safety nets rule of law politicalvoice and participation and access to markets technology information and credit World Bank 2005d In the last decade poverty reduction was not always or everywhere commensurate with income growth In some countries and regions inequality worsened as poor people did not reap the fruits of economic expansion lacking oppor tunities to do so Fiftynine countries with comparable 1 or 2 a day pov erty data measured at two points in time with a gap of at least 10 years over the last two decades show that growth and changes in income distribution can reinforce or offset their effects on poverty reduction figures 1 and 1k In 26 cases income growth was accompanied by increased inequal ity and in 20 more income distribution worsened as average incomes fell lnequallty has Increased In many countries with or without growth 1 Positive inoome growth and deore asing inequaiities Negative inoorne growtn 1 quot39 95 17 and increasing inequaiities 20 oouritries 34 Positive ineorne growth and increasing inequaiities 26 countries 44 Negative ineornegrowtn 39 y and decreasing inequaiities 3 oountries 5 Note Based on 59 country ooseryations Source World BanK starr caicuiations Changes In Income growth and distribution both affect poverty reduction 1k 2 V v 71 Poverty oeoeasi o 2 i i i i i i 4 73 72 71 o 1 2 3 4 5 6 Change iri poverty due to growth percentage poirits Note Based on 59 country o seryations Source World Bank staff calculations But this is not to say that growth is bad for poverty reduc tion In 17 cases the contribution of growth to poverty reduc tion surpassed the negative impact of worsening inequality and in another 11 cases reduction in inequality added to the povertyreducing effect of positive growth In only one case out of 60 was poverty reduced despite negative income growth Looking at the relationship between countries per capita income growth and performance in reducing 1 a day pov erty controlling for starting points also suggests a posi tive and significant statistical relationship between the two figure ii The worst poverty reduction performers recorded particu larly weak income growth performance figure Lm But the distinction amongthe three other groups of performers poor good and best is less pronounced This suggests that the relationship between income growth and poverty reduction is more diverse when the economy is not in deep recession In other words income growth is necessary but may not be suf ficient for sustained poverty reduction Poverty reduction and per capita Income growth performances are correlated Poverty reductron perronnance percentage pornts 15 78 76 74 72 4 er caprta lncome growtn performance percentage pornts te Based on 41 country observatrons Performance rs tne dlffererlce between actual rate or cnange an average rate or cnange or countnes startrng rrorn srrnrlar posltlons ln poverty rates or per caplta lncomes Source World Bank starr calculatrons The worst poverty reduction performers record very poor Income growth Per caprta lrlcome growtn perronnance percentage pornts Worst Best Poor Good Poverty reductron perronnance te Based on 41 country observatlons Performance ls tne dlfference between actual rate or cnange an average rate of cnange or countnes startlng from slrnllar posltlons ln poverty rates or per caplta lncomes Source World Bank starr calculatlons Countries are ranked here by poverty reduction in the most recent 10year period with data figure in periods vary from country to country depending on the availability of pov erty surveys Also shown is the average poverty reduction of countries starting from a similar initial poverty rate The best and worst performers which significantly deviated from expectations in one direction or the other are marked with an asterisk There is great diversity in the characteristics of good per formers Among them are low and middleincome countries from most regions and with varying population sizes Note too that the best and worst performers are not necessarily the countries that recorded the largest absolute changes in poverty rates Mauritania for example recorded a substan tial reduction but still fell short of the average performance of countries with similar initial poverty rates Mexico experi enced a smaller poverty reduction but significantly exceeded the average benchmark Best and worst poverty reduction performers Absolute cnanges ln tne poverty neadcount lrldex 1 a day PPP per year 2 lActual progress Average progress of countrles startlng from slmllar posltlon Note Based on 41 country observatrons Asterlsks rndrcate perronners tnat slgrllflr cantly devlated posrtrvely or negatlvely rrorn average rate of cnange rn poverty rate of countnes wrtn srrnrlar rnrtral posrtron over tne penod rndrcated Source World Bank starr calculatrons 2007 World Development ll ldlcators I 5 6 More than 10 million children in developing countries die be fore the age of five every year mostly from preventable ill nesses Child mortality has declined in every region since 1990 figure 10 but progress is slow only 35 countries are on track to meet the Millennium Development Goal of reducing underfive mortality by twothirds between 1990 and 2015 Progress is particularly slow in SubSaharan Africa where AIDS malaria and malnutrition are driving up mortal ity rates Improving maternal health itself a goal is a powerful instrument for reducing child mortality More than 500000 women in developing countries die in childbirth each year and at least 10 million suffer injuries infections and disabili ties High mortality results from malnutrition frequent preg nancies and inadequate healthcare during pregnancy and delivery Women are receiving better care during childbirth with the proportion of births attended by skilled health staff going up from 60 percent to 70 percent between 1990 and 2004 figure 1p Countries in Africa and South Asia neverthe less lag behind with much lower ratios Underflve mortality rates have Improved almost everywhere 10 Number of countries 1990 I 2004 0 Less than 10 10725 26750 517100 1017150 1517200 More than Underrfive mortaiity rate per 1000 200 Note Based on 147 country observations source39World Bank staff calculations The proportion of births attended by skilled staff Increased greatly In many countries 1p Number of countries 1986795 199972005 0 Less than 10 10730 31750 51770 71790 More than 90 Share of births attended by skilled health staff n Note Based on 66 country observations Source World Bank staff calculations I 2007 World Development indicators Performance in reducing child mortality is measured by progress from a given starting position Worrying and unlike other development goals countries with high initial mortal ity rates face greater difficulties in reducing them in rela tive terms than do countries starting from more favorable positions figure Lq HIVAIDS and other communicable dis eases are probably behind this as countries with higher HIV prevalence rates record significantly lower reductions in child mortality Countries with high underfive mortality rates are also often countries where malaria is prevalent and difficult to curb Economic growth is associated with improving mortality outcomes On average good and best performers in reduc ing underfive mortality had significantly higher growth per formance than did poor and worst performers figure 1r Accordingly country case studies emphasize the influence of poverty in determining child mortality Because poor children are more likely to be malnourished and to receive less health care they are more exposed to the risk of dying before the age of five Countries with high lnltlal mortality rates progress more slow cnange in underrfive mortaiity rate percentage points Initial Underflve mortallty reductlon performance ls associated with good growth performance Per capita GDP growth performance percentage points 10 Best Worst Poor Good Underrfive mortaiity reduction performance Note Based on 116 country observations Performance is the difference between actual rate or change and average rate of change of countries starting from Similar positions in underrfive mortaiity rates or per capita GDP Source World Bank staff calculations Performance in reducing underfive mortality rates is sig nificantly associated with education primary school comple tion and gender equal access to schooling suggesting that there are synergies amongthe Millennium Development Goals figure is The relationship between per capita GDP growth perfor mance and improvements in maternal healthcare performance as measured by the proportion of births attended by skilled health staff is not straightforward no direct statistical rela tionship can be observed between the two But performance in improving maternal healthcare is strongly associated with performance in reducing underfive mortality figure it This might not reflect any direct causal relationship between these two indicators Rather it could reflect the impact of health infrastructure and policies on these two indicators Important synergies between health and educationrelated Millennium Development Goals 15 Countries are ranked here by their reduction in underfive mortality rates over 1990 2004 figure Lu Also shown is the average reduction of countries starting from a similar position The best and worst performers which far exceeded averages in one direction or the other are marked with an asterisk Most of the worst performers are in SubSaharan Africa where HIV is rampant particularly in the east and south But SubSaharan Africa also hosts some of the countries that recorded the largest drops in underfive mortality In South Asia 4 of the 8 countries are among the 10 countries that recorded the largest improvements in mortality rates Three of them are among the best performers after accounting for their starting positions Iraq starting from a favorable initial position saw its underfive mortality rate grow from 50 to 125 per 1000 over the period 1990 2004 Best and worst performers In reducing child mortality Underrrlve mortality reduction perrormance percentage points 76 4i 72 4 Primary scnool completion perrormance percentage points Based on 70 country observations Perrormance is tne dlrrerence between actual rate or cnange an average rate or cnange or countnes starting from similar positions in underrrlve mortality rates or pnmary scnool completion rates SourceWorid Barlk staff calculations Performance In maternal health and underfive mortality are associated Worst Poor Good Best Maternal nealtn perrormance 9 Based on 66 country observations Performance is tne dlrrerence between actual rate or cn nge and a average rate or cnange or countnes starting from similar positions in maternal nealtncare or underrrlve mortality rates Souroermrld Barlk staff calculations Absolute annual cnanges in mortality per 1000 cnlldren ages 175 199072004 0 lActuai progress Average progress or countrles starting from similar position lrzu Bnmznz szhndlz Rwanda Equatorial Guinea Cate d ivnlre l Swaziland l Zlmhzhwe l 9 Based on 147 country observations Asterisks indicate performers thatslgn rllrlcarltiy deviated positively or negatively from average rate or cnange in underrrlve mortality rate or courltrleswlth Similar initial position Source World Barlk staff calculations 2007 World Development indicators I Education and gender As a result of significant progress over the last decade the average primary completion rate has risen from 62 percent to 72 percent figure 1v But even at this pace SubSaharan Africa and South Asia may not reach the Millennium Devel opment Goals target of having all children of relevant age complete primary school by 2015 In 2001 02 it was esti mated that about 100 million primaryschooIage children were not attending school threequarters of them in these two regions Beyond the necessity of educating all children eliminat ing discrimination against girls participation in school is a powerful instrument for empowering half the world s people improving the health of children and reducing poverty Prog ress in eliminating gender disparities in primary and second ary school has been remarkable in the last decade figure 1w On average the deviation from perfect parity a gender parity index of 100 percent shrank from 14 percent in 1991 to 8 percent in 2003 05 Most countries are progressing In primary school completion Number of COUl llrleS 1994 I 2004 Less tnan 20 2040 41760 61780 More tnan 80 Primary scnool completion rate Note Based on 68 country observations Source World Bank staff calculations The number of countries with large gender disparity gaps In school ls falllng rapldly Number of COUl llrleS 1991 I 2003705 0 Less than 60 60770 71780 81790 91795 More tnan 95 Gender parity index at scnool Note Based on 97 countryooseryations The gender parityindex is equal to 100 minus tne relatiye excess or dericit of boys over girls in primary and secondary scnool Source World Bank staff calculations I 2007 World Development lrldlcators The ability of countries to raise their primary school completion rates in the last decade was determined largely by their starting point Countries with lower initial primary completion rates made faster progress figure 1x probably reflecting the fact that it becomes more difficult and costly to enroll and keep all children in school as the number ofthose left out falls Country case studies suggest that girls poor children and children living in rural areas are less likely to complete schooling These are the areas where faster prog ress must be made to achieve education for all Improvements in gender parity in school are also signifi cantly associated with initial conditions On average coun tries starting with greater initial gender disparity have made faster progress figure 1y When all children are enrolled and complete school there will be no gender disparity in school Overthe last decade the number of countries in which the number of boys in primary and secondary schools exceed that of girls by more than 40 percent a gender parityindex below 60 percent fell from Countries starting from low levels progress faster In primary school completlon crowtn in scnool completion rate percentage points lnitial primary scnool completion rate Note Based on 70 country ooseryations Source World Bank staff calculations Countrles starting from low levels Improve gender parlty more rapidly crowtn in gender parity index percentage points 4 o lnitial gender parity index at scnool te Based on 97 country observations The gender parity index is equal to 100 minus tne relatiye excess or dericit of boys over girls in primary and secondary scnool Source World Bank staff calculations No 17 of 97 to 3 And the number of countries with gender par ity index above 90 percent increased from 54 to 69 But the relationship between school completion and improvements in gender parity performance accounting for initial conditions appears to be more pronounced and uniform on the negative side than it is on the positive side figure 12 Countries that most improved their gender parity index did not record sig nificantly higher school completion performances But coun tries in which gender parity declined the most were countries where school completion performance was also particularly poor possibly reflectingthe fact that dropout rates are higher for girls than for boys during difficult periods There is not a statistically significant correlation between performance in per capita GDP growth and primary school completion Whilethe relationship shows up atthe extremes the best and worst school completion performers record very distinct growth performances the growth performance of poor school completion performers cannot be clearly distin guished from that of good performers figure Laa The worst gender parlty performance ls associated with poor school completlon performance School completron performance percentage pornts o 5 Worst Poor Good Best Gender parlty performance to Based on 58 country ooservatrons Performance rs tne dlfference between actual rate of cnange and average rate of cnange of countnes startrng from srrnrlar posrtrons ln gender pantv or prlmary scnool completron rates Source World Bank starr calculatrons The worst performers on school completlon were poor growth performers Per caprta GDP growth performance percentage pornts o 2 Worst Best Poor Good Prlmary scnool completlon performance 9 Based on 67 country observatlons Performance ls tne dlfference between actual rate or change and average rate or change or countrles startlng from slmllar posltlons in prlmarv scnool completlon rates or per caplta GDP Source World Bank staff calculatlons Countries are ranked here by their primary school com pletion progress in the last decade figure Lbb Also shown is the average progress of countries starting from a similar position The best and worst performers which far exceeded averages in one direction or the other are marked with an asterisk The two groups of performers best and worst both include a large number of SubSaharan African countries illustrating the diversity of performance in the region Devel oping countries improved their primary completion rates by 1 percentage point every year on average overthe last decade or so The best performers all recorded yearly increases exceeding 28 percentage points Best and worst primary school completlon performers Aosolute cnanges ln scnool completlon rate per year IActual Average progress of countrles varlous perloos percentage polnts progress startlng from slrnllar posltlon 4 3 I I 2 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 O a tn 2 a s s a s s s E 3 g E i 339 g g g s a g 5 as s 5 g g s a 25 a 2 Q g E 1 7 7 O t e e I I 1 Z S sl sl e Z 3 2 g s e 2 g g E 3 T E e l E E E E Note Based on 70 countrvooservatlons Asterlsks lnolcate perrorrners natslgnlfln cantlv devlated posrtrvelv or negatlvely over tne perlod rnorcateo from tne average rate of cnange ln prlmary scnool completron rate of countnes wltn srrnrlar rnrtral posrtron Source World Bank starr calculatrons 2007 World Development lndlcators I 9 1ol Access to improved water sources and emissions of car bon dioxide are among the indicators that the international community uses to monitor progress toward environmental sustainability Today more than a billion people in developing countries lack access to an adequately protected source of water close to their dwellings figure Lcc Progress to improve access has been significant in the last decade but probably insufficient in Africa to meet the 2015 Millennium Development Goal tar get of halving the proportion of people in 1990 without sus tainable access to safe drinking water The role of carbon dioxide in climate change is now well documented but the use of carbonbased energy has addi tional effects on human health through local air pollution Yet emissions mount as countries grow economically unless they reduce the carbon content of their economic activity through technological progress or shift away from carbonintensive production and consumption figure de More than a billion people still lack access to safe drinking water Between 1990 and 2004 the proportion of people in developing countries with access to an improved water source increased from 73 percent to 80 percent and the number of countries with more than half the population lacking access fell from 24 to 11 figure lee Countries starting from lower positions advanced faster Economic activity agriculture and industry in particular compete with human needs for access to water sources But greater wealth and urbanization allow more of the popula tion to connect to safe drinking water networks The data do not reveal a statistically significant correlation between water access and growth performance overall But the worst growth performers distinctively record poor water access performance figure Lff Such countries may also be those with degraded water infrastructure and poor management capacity Access to water Improved almost everywhere 1990 2004 Millions or people 500 EastAsla 8t Pacific Europe amp Central Asia Latin America Middle East South SubnSariarari 8t Caribbean 8t North Africa Asia Africa Source World Bank Staff Calculations Carbon dioxide emissions are mounting and accumulating In the atmosphere Number of Countries 1990 I 2004 Less than 20 20430 41760 61780 More than 80 Share or population With access to improved water source Note Based on 113 country observations Source World Bank staff calculations Growth and water access performance are not systematically assoclated Billions of tons toward rntddleririoome countries H39Ehinuome countries O 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2002 Source World Bank staff cal culatlons 2007 World Development indicators Water access performance percentage points 0 2 Worst Best Poor Good Per capita GDP growth performance e p A A actual rate or change and average rate or change or countries starting from similar positions in per Capita GDP or water access Source World Bank staff calculations In the next decades all countries need to make impor tant efforts to reduce their carbon emissions In developing economies such a commitment might be perceived as at odds with that of fostering growth But recent history sug gests that developing countries that have grown the fastest also made the greatest reductions in the carbon content of their economic activities measured by carbon dioxide emis sions per unit of GDP in PPP terms figure ng It is likely that growth was accompanied by more rapid adoption of new more energy efficient technologies and a shift toward less carbonintensive production and consumption This is not enough however to claim that growth is good for mitigating carbon dioxide emissions the best growth performers recorded much higher growth in carbon dioxide emissions than other groups figure th Technical efficiency gains were not sufficient to compensate for the growth in output Growth and carbon content reductlon performance are correlated Countries are ranked here by their progress in water access in 1990 2004 Also shown is the average progress of countries starting from a similar position figure in The best and worst performers which far exceeded averages in one direction or the other are marked with an asterisk A number of poor performers suffered from particularly difficult geographical constraints small Pacific island ordes ert countries with low rainfall for instance But others also facing difficult geographical constraints greatly improved access to safe water The best and worst performers are not necessarily countries that registered the largest abso lute changes lndeed the initial rate of access to improved water sources can alone explain almost half the differences in progress across countries Accounting for starting points thus portrays a different picture of relative performances across countries Best and worst water access performers Caroon content perrormance percentage points 15 10 75 o 5 GDP growth performance percentage points d ii actual rate of cnange and average rate of cnange of countries starting rrom similar positions in carbon content levels or GDP Source World Bank starr calculations But not enough to claim that growth ls good for mitigating growth In carbon emissions Carbon dioxide emissions growth perrormance percentage points 5 4 3 2 1 o 71 r2 Best Worst Poor Good GDP growth perrormance Note Do u ii actual rate of change arid average rate of change of countries starting from similar positions in GDP or carbon dioxide emissions Source World Bank staff calculatlol ls Annual cnanges in snare of people Witn permanent access to improved lActual Average progress of countries water source 199072004 progress starting from similar position 2 1 i i 1 4 I o 7 7 7 7 O O i t N s E 9 D 3 E 2 2 E g g 5 a a E g 2 g s 25 5 6 E g a E 1 4 O 7 o o I I an E E e I a s g I I 0 7 quotE 5 2 s gt 5 3 a s v E 2 g g 1 4 3 a s 7 Note Based on 102 countrv ooservations Asterisks indicate performers tnat Slg lfln cantlv deviated positively or negatively rrom average rate of cnange in water access of countries Witn similar initial position Source World Bank starr calculations 2007 World Development indicators 3911 Goals targets and indicators Goals and targets from the Millennium Declaration Indicators for monitoring progress Goal 1 Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger Target 1 Halve between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of 1 Proportion of population below 1 PPP a day3 people whose income is less than 1 a day 1a Poverty headcount ratio percentage of population below the national poverty line 2 Poverty gap ratio incidence X depth of poverty 3 Share of poorest quintile in national consumption Target 2 Halve between 1990 and 2015 the proportion of 4 Prevalence of underweight children under five years of age people who sufferfrom hunger 5 Proportion of population below minimum level of dietary energy consumption Goal 2 Achieve universal primary education Target 3 Ensure that by 2015 children everywhere boys and 6 Net enrollment ratio in primary education girls alike will be able to complete a full course of 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5b primary schooling 8 Literacy rate of 15 to 24 year olds Goal 3 Promote gender equality and empower women Target 3 Ensure that by 2015 children everywhere boys and 6 Net enrollment ratio in primary education girls alike will be able to complete a full course of 7 Proportion of pupils starting grade 1 who reach grade 5b primary schooling 8 Literacy rate of 15 to 24 year olds Target 4 Eliminate gender disparity in primary and secondary 9 Ratios of girls to boys in primary secondary and tertiary education preferably by 2005 and in all levels of education education no later than 2015 10 Ratio of literate women to men ages 15 24 11 Share of women in wage employment in the nonagricultural sec or 12 Proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments Goal 4 Reduce child mortality Target 5 Reduce by twothirds between 1990 and 2015 the 13 Underfive mortality rate underfive mortality rate 1 Infant mortality rate 15 Proportion of oneyearold children immunized against measles Goal 5 Improve maternal health Target 6 Reduce by threequarters between 1990 and 2015 16 Maternal mortality ratio the maternal mortality ratio 17 Proportion of births attended by skilled health personnel Goal 6 Combat HIVAIDS malaria and other diseases Target 7 Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the 18 HIV prevalence among pregnant women ages 15 24 spread of HIVAIDS 19 Condom use rate of the contraceptive prevalence rate 3 19a Condom use at last highrisk sex 19b Percentage of 15 to 24 year olds with comprehensive correct knowledge of HIVAIDS 19c Contraceptive prevalence rate 20 Ratio of school attendance of orphans to school attendance of nonorphans ages 10 14 Target 8 Have halted by 2015 and begun to reverse the 21 Prevalence and death rates associated with malaria incidence of malaria and other major diseases 22 Proportion of population in malariarisk areas using effective malaria prevention and treatment measures9 23 Prevalence and death rates associated with tuberculosis 24 Proportion of tuberculosis cases detected and cured under directly observed treatment short course DOTS Goal 7 Ensure environmental sustainability Target 9 Integrate the principles of sustainable development 25 Proportion of land area covered by forest into country policies and programs and reverse the 26 Ratio of area protected to maintain biological diversity to loss of environmental resources surface area 27 Energy use kilograms of oil equivalent per 1 GDP PPP 28 Carbon dioxide emissions per capita and consumption of ozonedepleting chlorofluorocarbons ODP tons 29 Proportion of population using solid fuels Target 10 Halve by 2015 the proportion of people without 30 Proportion of population with sustainable access to an sustainable access to safe drinking water and basic improved water source urban and rural sanitation Proportion of population with access to improved sanitation urban and rural 12 I 2007 World Development indicators Evirzm Ejll39iilt him elm tile Tilili eunn tun u ll quot g 3W Target 11 By 2020 to have achieved a significant improvement 32 Proportion of households with access to secure tenure in the lives of at least 100 million slum dwellers Goal 8 Develop a global partnership for development Target 12 Develop further an open rulebased predictable Some of the indicators listed below are monitored separately nondiscriminatory trading and financial system for the least developed countries LDCs Africa landlocked countries and small island developing states Includes a commitment to good governance development and poverty reduction both nationally Of cial development assistance ODA and internationally 33 Net ODA total and to the least developed countries as a percentage of OECDDAC donors gross national income 34 Proportion of total bilateral sectorallocable ODA of OECD Target 13 Address the special needs of the least developed DAG donors to has 509 serv39ces bas39c educ t39onl countries primary healthcare nutrition safe water and sanitation 35 Proportion of bilateral official development assistance of Includes tariff and quota free access for the least OECDDAG donors that 395 unt39ed developed countriesi exports enhanced programme 6 ODA received in landlocked countries as a proportion of of debt relief for heavily indebted poor countries the39rgross nat39ona39 39n omes HIPC and cancellation of official bilateral debt 37 ODA ree39Ved 39 ma 39S39anq deVe39 P39ng States as and more generous ODA for countries committed to proport39on Of the gross nat39ona39 39ncomes poverty reduction Market access 38 Proportion of total developed country imports by value and excluding arms from developing countries and from t e Target 14 Address the special needs of landlocked countries least developed countries admitted free of duty and Small 39Sland develop39ng States through 39 Average tariffs imposed by developed countries on the Programme Of ACt39On for the SUSt 39nable agricultural products and textiles and clothing from Devijlelropment of Sn flalrl1 ls a2ndeeveloping Statesf h developing countries an t iutcomlj O t e n Spec39a sess39on O t e 40 Agricultural support estimate for OECD countries as a enera ssem V percentage of their gross domestic product 41 Proportion of ODA provided to help build trade capacity Debt 39 39 39 Target 15 Deal comprehenSiVely With the debt DrOblemS 42 Total number of countries that have reached their HIPC of developing countries through national and decision points and numberthat have reached their HIPC international measures in order to make debt completion points cumulative SUStainable in the lOng term 43 Debt relief committed under HIPC Debt Initiative 44 Debt service as a percentage of exports of goods and services Target 16 In cooperation with developing countries develop 45 Unemployment rate of 15 to 24yearolds male and and implement strategies for decent and productive female and total work for youth Target 17 In cooperation with pharmaceutical companies 46 Proportion of population with access to affordable rovide access to affordable essential drugs in essential drugs on a sustainable basis developing countries Target 18 In cooperation with the private sector make available the benefits of new technologies especially information and communications 47 Telephone lines and cellular subscribers per 100 people 48a Personal computers in use per 100 people 48b Internet users per 100 people Note Goals targets and indicators effective September 8 2003 a For p ii iio compietionrate c i on condom to is also useful in tracking progress in ot on nerneaitngender and povertygoals d rnisindicator i iv faithful wnere available o An alternative indicator under development is primary HIV transmission since tne condom use rate is only measured among women in union it too indicator 19c contraceptive prevalence A t e two malor wno relect tne HIV 1 4 ra ways of preventing tne sexual transmission of H transmission and wno know tnat a nealtnyrlooking person can transmit HIV However since tner e defined above UNICEF in collaboration with UNAIDS and WHO produced tWo proxy indicators tnat represent tWo e ar currently not a sufficient number of surveys to be able to calculate tne indicator as components of tne actuai indicator They are tne percentage of women 7 iii HlVinfection ow nealtnyrlooking person can transmit HIV e Prevention to be measu by p o con om an 72 w a red by tne percentage of cniidren under age rive sleeping under insecticidertreated bednets treatment to be measured ercentage of cniidren under age rive wno are appropriately treated t An improved measure of tne target for future years is under development by tne international Labour Organization I13 2007 World Development Indicators
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