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Economic Development

by: Dr. Garrick Goodwin

Economic Development ECON 4600

Dr. Garrick Goodwin
GPA 3.66


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Class Notes
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This 26 page Class Notes was uploaded by Dr. Garrick Goodwin on Sunday October 25, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ECON 4600 at University of North Texas taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 13 views. For similar materials see /class/229209/econ-4600-university-of-north-texas in Economcs at University of North Texas.


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Date Created: 10/25/15
71 ECON 4600 TOPIC 6 POPULATION GROWTH ECON 5700 I Basic uestions A 11 Basic Statistics A Global population 1 Today 2 2025 3 2050 B Other measures 1 Total fertility rate 2 Crude birth rate 3 Crude death rate 4 Rate of natural increase 72 5 Doubling time 6 Summary statistics TFR Doubling HighIncome World Lowest Highest Source Population Reference Bureau World Population Data Sheet 2008 III A History of the Human Population TABLE 61 Estimated World Population Growt rough History Estimated Annual Percentage Increase Estimated Population in the Intervening Year 39 Period 10000 EC ADI 250 004 1650 s45 0 04 1750 728 0 29 1800 906 o 45 1850 1171 0 53 1900 1608 o 65 1950 2576 0 91 1970 3698 2 09 1980 4448 1 76 1990 5292 73 2000 6090 1 48 quot 91036 o 45 m A gt qurv r 39 39 1 lt1 NewYork H r mr mm reall 1998 2001 TABLE 6 2 World Population rowth Rates and Doubl39 gTimes Approximate Doubling Growth Rate Time Period 93 years Appearance ofhumansto early historical times 0002 36000 1650 1750 0 240 185071900 0 6 115 1930 1950 1 0 71 1960 1980 2 3 31 Present 1 3 54 W V H urr 1 mice Bureau n FIGURE 61 Population Growth1750zzooWorld Less Developed Regions and More Devel oped Regions 11 10 9 E a World total E E 7 2 g e 6109 392 5 E g 4 80 Less develnped regions 391 3 2 f lore developed regions 0 l 1 1 1 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 20 0 2050 2200 Year 31 Absolute size FIGURE 61 Population Growth17502200Wurld Less Developed Regions and More Devel oped Regions 70 g I Less developed regions 9 E 60 I More developed regions v 50 z 9 g 40 E o 30 m 20 10 0 I I 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2200 Year 1 Increase by decade Murrirk 39 39 39 quot 39 39 19864andl1nited Narinn 39 39 39 we i no 14715 ar l m nn rl f vm m n l man w m An r mm ica Canada and the United Stalesl IV Structure of the World s Pupulaiion A Where FIGURE World Popula on u on by Reg n zoogand 2050 Europe Africa stamps 12 14 Africa 20 Nor America 5 Norm Latin America America 9 5 Asia and Asia and Oceania Oceania 60 59 Laun Amerlca 9 a Total population 2003 6313 billion 1 Total population 2050 9198 billion Source Data from Population Reference Bureau 76 TABLE 63 The Fifteen Largest Countries and Their Annual Population Increases 2003 Population Rate of Rank Country millions Increase 1 China 1289 06 2 India 1069 17 3 United States 292 o 6 4 Indonesia 221 1 6 5 Bra II 177 13 6 Pakistan 149 2 7 7 Bangladesh 147 2 2 8 Rus a 146 o 7 9 Nigeria 134 2 8 10 Japan 128 o 1 11 Mexico 105 2 4 12 evman 83 gt0 1 13 Philippines 82 2 2 14 Vietnam 81 1 3 15 pt 72 2 1 Reprinted with permission B Population growth has peaked 1950 2000 c 2 5 235 I g z a 2 0 210 5 2 110 V V D Developing countries g 140 E 1395 1 25 a o g 10 o a 060 E 05 Developed countries A 010 V U l I l I l I l I I I I 39 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Year C Age structures and dependency burdens 1 Citizens of LDCs are much younger on avemge Population by Age and Sex Population Pyr oped Countries1998 d5 Less Developed and More Dev Age years Age years 300 200 IUD U 0 2 300 Population millions 9 Less WWed mum b More developed countries erence Bureau 1998 Reprinted with permission 2 Youth dependency burdens high in LDCs Inem39a ofpopulalion groWLh FIGURE 66 The Hidden Momentum of Population GrowthSome Illustrations Population millions Population size l Population size at Ultimate 1990 replacementrlevel population size m1in h r D m latinn Reference Bureau 1590 p 14 Reprmted mm permission V How Economic Development Affects Population Growth A The stylized demographic tmnsition 1 Stage I 2 Stage II 3 Stage III 3 CI C I III The DemographicT tion in Western Europe 000 inhabitants w I a lt I N c BithIaIe Death rate I I I I Sla e 1 Sta I I I I I I I I I I I I I g gez 780 1840 1850 1890 1910 I I I I I I I I I I Stage3 Actual binh and deaLh rates per 1 I 2000 Future Year 05 The demographic Lmnsi on in today s LDCs FIGURE 68 The DemagraphicTransI an in Developing Countries A E 50 7 E 5 Case B S 40 g I 4 Birlhrale g I 30 I I E 1 Case 5m I u 20 I 13 I E I Case B m I 5 I Death late 3 10 I C A e I ase m I I g 39 I I lt Stage 1 1 Stage 2 1 Stage 3 19m 1950 1965k1970 Future Year quot 39 I39liIzI AuademynfSciences I963 p 15 growth 80 C Mathus model and the Malthusian trap 1 Basic idea 2 The Malthusian trap in diagrammatic form a Shape of income growth rate curve b Shape of the population growth rate curve Income per capita c 3 equilibria d Critiques of the Malthus model 81 82 D Becker s household fertility model 1 General idea 2 Costs and bene ts Explicit Costs Implicit Costs Explicit Bene ts Implicit Bene ts 3 Demand for children is a function of 83 VI How Population Growth Affects Economic T 39 t A A simple model B Conventional wisdom rapid population growth has adverse effects such as 84 C Contrarians population growth isn t a real problem because 1 It s a symptom of a larger problem 2 It s a contrived issue 3 It s actually desirable 85 VII PolicV Options 39 39 quot growth is a problem A What LDCs can do B What developed countn39es can do NOTES 86 ECON 4600 TOPIC 11 DEVELOPMENT AND TRADE POLICIES ECON 5700 Given the facts what is the best path for a LDC to follow with respect to trade 1 Export Promotion Outward Looking T A Overview 1 Trade theory tells us that 2 NICs and Asian Tigers experiences 3 Experiences of most LDCs B PrimaryLed export growth 1 Typical LDCs are vulnerable a LDCs often rely on b LDCs usually export Growth of primary product exports over time is sluggish at best Why a Demandside explanations 0 Income elasticities for nonpetroleum primary products are low 0 Population growth in developed world is slow 0 Synthetic substitutes o Developed country protectionism Terms of Trade Index 120 7 1001 I Demand for these products tends to be price inelastic so falling prices means falling export earnings Real NonOil Commodity Terms of Trade 19771998 1987 1992 1997 Year Supplyside explanations 0 Rigid LDC production systems 0 Marketing boards 0 Subsidized products from developed countries 3 B ottorn line 4 How can LDCs reduce the risk C Manufacturesled export growth 1 Big Winners in development Tigers NICs 2 What s behind the success a Is it the invisible hand b Involvement in manufacturing 0 Diversi cation 11 Import Inward Looking Development A Basic idea infant industry protection B Import substitution policies 1 Taiiffs and quotas 2 Subsidized capital inputs 3 Overvalued cuirency 4 Problem is import substitution sustainable C Import substitution results III Another Possibility Economic Integration A What is integration B Types of integration C Advantages D Disadvantages NOTE S


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