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EconometricMethods I

by: Nakia Spencer

EconometricMethods I ECON 735

Nakia Spencer
GPA 3.67


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This 5 page Class Notes was uploaded by Nakia Spencer on Tuesday October 27, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ECON 735 at University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 26 views. For similar materials see /class/230292/econ-735-university-of-wisconsin-milwaukee in Economcs at University of Wisconsin - Milwaukee.


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Date Created: 10/27/15
l39niyorsity of Illinois Dopartmont of liconomics Fall 1995 licon 472 Rogor Koonkor Appendix A Concentration of Productivity in Phuzics Scholarship 39l his appondix prosonts a briol an s of tho Parzon oll oct in phuxics rosoarch It will bo rocallod that Parzon 19833 hypothosixod that ono could discorn tho dogroo to which a disciplino was quotquotslt39iol11ililtquotquot by studying tho tail bohayior of tho distribution of annual productiyity of tho rosoarch community IViolds with an oxtromoly long right tail io liolds in which a largo faction of tho publishod rosoarch is contributod by a small faction of rosoarchors aro sciontilic Now sciontilic liolds oxhibit a moro uniform distribution of productiyity Without judging tho usolulnoss of this thoory as a moasuro olsciontilic morit wo undortako a briol inyostigation of whothor thoro is a trond in tho tail oxponont of phuxics rosoarch oyor tho poriod 197071990 s an ostimato of tho tail oxponont wo omploy Hills 19733 ostimator which is roadily shown to possoss optimality proportios for distributions with a Parotoiyiipl right tail io for dis oltho form 1517 1 Ifr Z If whoro it proyidos an ostimato of tho tail oxponont 139 V Vo hayo a limitod samplo of only 123 rosoarchors output oyor tho poriod in quostion so wo uso only tho 10 most uppor ordor st ics for oach yoar 39l hus y ml Z logYl lYlmllquot 11 whoro m 10 and f angos from 1970 to 1990 39l hoso ostimatos aro plottod in IViguro l and appoar to indicato a strongly positiyo trond which wo ostimato thoro by suporimposing a log linoar trond modol n incroasing trond in 139 would suggost phuxics was bocoming loss sciontilic oyor tho poriod olinyostig ation a claim supportod by somo critics but ono which wo lind dillicult to accopt on faco yaluo sorious dilliculty with tho analysis oltho ostimatos plottod in IViguro l is that bocauso tho liold is growing tho ostimatos aro basod on radically dill oront samplo sixos 39l hus for oxamplo in tho oarly 7039s wo hayo only about 30 total obsoryations whilo at tho ond of tho poriod wo hayo oyor 100 To adjust for this oll oct wo bogan by running a small Monto Carlo oxporimont in which wo gono atod data from tho standard I 00 l lognormal distribution and thon appliod ill39s ostimato lo a yarioty of samplo sixos 39l ho rosults of this oxporimont aro roportod in iguro 2 It is 39loar that tho tail oxponont is liasod downward substantially for lowor samplo sixos 39lo lt orrolt39t for this bias wo omployod a bootstrap lias lt orrolt39tion of tho following form undor tho null hypothosis of no trond in prodm tivity wo lt onstrult39tod a samplo olannual prodm39tivity ovor tho ontiro poriod 197071990 From this amplo wo drow random samplos with roplavomont for oalt39h of tho samplo sixos quotorrosponding to tho olsorr39od annual samplos 39l ho annual ostimatos woro thon lias7lt39orrolt39tod as 139 V 139 a 7 In whoro IV donotos ill39s ostimator lasod on tho poolod population and in lonotos tho moan of tho bootstrappod ostimatos lasod on a sulsamplo of n olsorr39ations 39l ho lias lt orrolt39tod olsorr39ations appoar as lt irlt39los in I Liguro 3 and it is 39loar from tho liguro that tho trond suggostod by tho original olsorr39ations was ossontiallv attrilutallo to tho samplo sixo oll ovt References Parxon l 1935 Com39ontration of Slt39iontililt39 Rosoarlt39h drumN of Hit lrmlrnzy of Srirnrr of Muntr 39ru lu 13 4637168 ill B 19733 Simplo Gonoral Approach to lnloronvo lout tho 39l ail ola Distribution drumN of Sum xs 3 116371 171 o E a C o o x mm E 5 P 139 E lt75 a m N 70 75 80 85 90 year I Liguro 1 Tail lixponont of Phuxivs I dult39tivity Distribution 197071990 39l ho plottod points indicato annual ostimatos of tail oxponont of tho productivity of phlixilt39ists from 1970 to 1990 39l ho tail oxponont is ostimatod in 0alt39l1 yoai using Hill39s ostimator basod on tho 10 largost rdor st stilt39s f0sorvod pl dl1lt39tivity Noto that sim39o thoso Wars havo rathor diflbront total samplo sims thoro may ho s0an bias in this provoduro 39l ho 39urvo suporimposod on tho data is a vast squams it of a logilinoai trond 390z13 01I1mz3 0111 Jo 1391zgtl1gt0 0111 11111201111 31 101mm 1101330180 01111nzn1gt 011111 Gquotg1quotgquotgzquot139 301111rmllgt 0111 1 81111gt110I30I0gt121121 p01101d 0111 110 1gt03I1u10ln3 11001 0111211 30112111 41130 1101330180 01111nzn1gt 01111 3100110 030111 JOJ 111011113n139p39e 1m 0111l1 011 3930z13 0111113912310 081an 31111 I0Ao 113911gt113e1gt0gt30I01011 pm 3111 011 EZJOP1SUO 31 0I0111 11119011 3911011n111311gt 11211110114801 1I R1U R1 0111 111011 0001 001 003 091 001 91 09 01 93 30z13 01I1mz3 1110101111 1 JOJ 0111 30113111213 I01gtI 13081121 01 0111 110 p03eq 101121111130 31111110 31101139en1m0 009 0112011gtu1 311J1I p01101ltl 011111 391UOU1X0 11131 0111 J0 I01 EZUJ11S0 J0 01J RUJIOJI01 0111 01 81I1 BAO 01 10181S01 110UJ1I01X0 01113 01110 111211181210 111ISOI 0111 S01 EZJ1SII111 0III811 S1111 Il01 EZUJ11S0 10 11011 EZII1 RAC11 011120 0111011 0III81 1 ezgs ed1ues OOOL 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