Biodiversity and Sustainability
Biodiversity and Sustainability WATS 1200
Utah State University
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Date Created: 10/28/15
Chapter 13 We are tinkering with the earth s energy balance m 39 be These are issues of last 3 weeks of class The Changing Atmosphere Global Warming Average global temperature C 1 0 I l I 20 quotSuper interglaciationquot Last interglaciation Present interglaciation 3 Next glaciation Last glaciation 0 Today 75 50 Time thousands of years 25 25 FIGURE 1 31 Earth s climate during the last 150000 years and an interpretation of its future The natural course of climatic change would involve a cooling reaching a glacial maximum about 23000 years from now dashed line Vl th an enhanced greenhouse effect because of the humaninduced emis sions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases to the atmosphere a continued warming may lead to a super interglacial stage in the next several hundred years The temperature may be higher than that of the last interglacial stage Consequently the decline in temperature leading to a future glaciation could be delayed by several thousand years After Imbrie and Imbrie 1979 Global warming and stratispheric ozone depletion are linked Temperature of earth is determined by balance of incoming solar radiation and outgoing radiation sent back to space Temperatures have remained comfortable for humans 15 C because of greenhouse gases Review bio39eochemistr of Carbon Photosynthesis Respiration Fossil fuel burning Ocean acidification Volcanoes The Greenhouse Effect and Clima Balance In PhotosyntheSIs CARBONDIOX39DE and Resplratlon FluxesMTCyr Missing 4600 To Ocean Kerr w 2300 Climate sensitivity 25 Cdoubling 002 67 greenhouse C02 773000 MTC 870 ppmv RT 7 years Accumulation Late diagenesis metamorphism 91 60 092 3300 MTCyr 0 bob 00 Q6 J 15 ppmvyr 9 9 V 6 6quot 903 9 00 390quot a o at 9 00 so 290 e a to e v8 o c o 9a to tv M s 0 Q a 4 g 0 z 50 lt23 Qg 0 e S S f g 1 o g 1L 09 E0 3939 E N C O 6 0 395 f Q L29 22 g 8 0 2 g lt x 0 o 3 o 8 LL Wm WM Land Ocean FIGURE 1 32 Global biogeochemical cycle of carbon as carbon dioxide for the 19905 The major processes affecting transfer of carbon as carbon dioxide between the surface of Earth and its atmosphere are shown as well as the rates of transfer fluxes Fluxes are in millions of metric tons of car bon MTC per year The reservoir size of carbon dioxide is in millions of tons of carbon Resi Anthropogenicsso increases in 002 changing atmosphere llllllllljlllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllllll 370 CO 039 0 GD 01 O to 4s 0 C0 0 O CO2 concentration parts per million volume r L lllllllllllllllIllllllllllllllllIlllllllllllll 1965 1975 1985 1995 Year 2005 FIGURE 1 34 The record of measurements of atmospheric carbon dioxide between 1958 and 2000 at Mauna Loa Observatory Hawaii The oscillations in carbon dioxide are seasonal cycles super imposed on the longterm increase caused by fossil fuel emissions and deforestation The cy cles represent the breathing of the Northern Hemisphere land biosphere in summer carbon dioxide levels drop because of photosynthesis and in winter they rise because of reSpi ration SlO Scripps Institution of Oceanography After National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory CMDL Carbon Cycle Greenhouse Gases wwwcdenoaagovccggfiguresfigureshtml QuickTimeT39V39 and a Photo JPEG decompressor are needed to see this picture Add up all the fossil carbon burning leaves us with missing Carbon Lots of ideas Some went into the oceans Mike White thinks earlier leaf out may be important Photosynthesis is increased under higher CO2 Carbon fertilization These are all negative feedbacks Earlier greening up and later fall may be important Example of how more CO2 causes more photosynthesis 70 l l 60 a C4 or 03 at High 002 50 40 30 20 Photosynthetic rate umol COgmZsec A C3 at low 002 0 I I I I 10 20 30 4O 50 60 Temperature C FIGURE 1 37 Photosynthetic rate versus temperature for the leaves of C3 and C4 plants Notice in particular that the photosynthetic rates of the abundant C3 plants are enhanced by increasing tempera ture and CO2 levels One micromol umol equals 12 micrograms of C02 After Allen and Methane is also important as a greenhouse gas 20 times more effective than CO2 180 Much is stored in Arctic soils and ice 1 75 Example of positive feedback on climate change CHI concentration parts per mIllI39on volume 150 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 1978 1979 1930 1981 1982 1993 1984 1985 1986 1997 1985 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 Year FlGURE 1 31 1 Atmospheric methane levels from 1978 to 2000 The rate of rise in the concentration of methane has decreased slightly in recent years After Hielman 1989 Baden et al 1991 Halpert and Ropelewski 1993 Houghton et al 1996 National Oceanic and Atmospheric Ad ministration NOAA Climate Monitoring and Diagnostics Laboratory CMDL Carbon Cycle Water vapor and clouds affect Climate Change my vapor is the most important greenhouse gas holds heat near the surface of planet Positive feedback more heat more evaporation But clouds from water vapor increase albedo decrease incoming solar radation Negative feedback Hard to know net effect of these two factors fwill dominate Where are greenhouse gases coming from Look at Table 133 US is biggest polluter Both in terms of absolute and per capita terms 08 39 I I 39 I I I 39 I I III e l nII l II t 04 Departures In temperature C from the 1961 to 1990 average 0 O I l I l l I I I I l I I 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Year O8 39 39 1860 1880 FIGURE 1 319 Global combined landsurface air and seasurface temperature annual anomalies in degrees centigrade between 1861 and 2000 as obtained by thermometer measurements The annual temperature anomalies are expressed as plus and minus deviations from the average 1961 1990 temperature The bars with twice their standard errors bracketed represent the un smoothed annual averages and the black heavyline curve is the smoothed average After Jones et al 1994 Folland et al 2001 Houghton et al 2001 Since Industrial Revolution Since 1000 AD Variations 039 the Earth39s surface temperaner for I in mm no yum u a Iago woman Dn nvlmnsm Imamlumi Ci 4 a J m m m m m m um am m b the pun 19m your i NDRYHERN nmsvuzns What about the future a C02 emissions Gt Cyr a c 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 Year 1300 1200 1 100 1000 b 02 concentration ppm 07 O a 2000 2020 2040 2080 2080 27 00 Year FIGURE 13 22 GFDi medal simulations 0f Surface Air Warming FF Northern hemisphere mid coniinen i average warming is 1525 Fi HF This is a wasted worid