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by: Lina Vandervort


Lina Vandervort

GPA 3.72

B. Amadei

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B. Amadei
Class Notes
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This 47 page Class Notes was uploaded by Lina Vandervort on Thursday October 29, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to CVEN 4700 at University of Colorado at Boulder taught by B. Amadei in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 20 views. For similar materials see /class/231883/cven-4700-university-of-colorado-at-boulder in Civil Engineering at University of Colorado at Boulder.




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Date Created: 10/29/15
Creating Sustainable Solutions for a Complex and consuming World 39cxzeyzwo L01 Bernard Amadei Department of Civil Environmental and Architectural Engineering University of Colorado Boulder With a current population of 65 billion Earth is becoming a place in which human populations are o More consuming 0 More crowded More connected J Less diverse and in which living systems and cultures are in increasing jeopardy 14 24 billion are at risk with malaria a v 29000 children die from hunger daily aquot r I rquotquot a 1 a 11 billion overfed vs 11 billion underfed Planet Earth Circa 2007 I 12 billion lack adequate housing I 16 billion have no access to electricity 42 billion are unable to read 18 billion live in conflict zones in transition or in 7 r situations of permanent instability Astronomy Plume oflhe DH 2000 November 2 h plantwrp gsfcnasaguvIapodasuapix h IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES ALMOST 2 BILLION ADDITIONAL PEOPLE WILL POPULATE THE EARTH THIS GROWTH WILL CREATE DEMANDS ON AN UNPRECEDENTED SCALE FOR ENERGY a WATER PRODUCTION V PRESERVATION SUITABLE INFRASTRUCTURE LIVING CONDITIONS MATERIALS I HAN DLING 5g 1 EARTH MOVING Infrastructure Infrastructure is that part of the anthrosphere composed of the utilities facilities and systems used in common by members of a society and upon which the society depends for its normal function Water Waste Sanitation Energy Shelter Transportation Land Use What we don t want J Technologies that substantially or totally deplete natural resources o Technologies that eliminate options for the future for natural and human systems w Technologies that escalate costs to prohibitive levels and that ALL cannot afford J Technologies that increase the probability of catastrophic future disaster either natural or technological Questions 9 What represent appropriate and sustainable technologies O Can these technologies provide solutions to current problems and avoid or minimize irreversible longterm negative environmental economic and social consequences 9 Who should such technologies serve NON NATURAL NATURAL SYSTEMS SYSTEMS VS Biosphere Hydrosphere Geosphere Atmosphere Built Environment Anthrosphere NonCartesian Diverse gt carteSian Nonlinear 0 en gt Somewhat predictable p gt Designed as closed systems Coupled Dissipative gt BUilt to IaSt Chaotic Changing Economic Issues Cultural Issues Social Issues Irvin Mal Political Issues Ethical Issues W at I r Environmental Issues Sustainability The word sustainability comes from sustain which comes from a Latin word that means to hold up and prolong to keep in existence to endure and withstand What do we wantneed to sustain hold up or prolong 9 The natural environment air water land biota J The human race and its basic organizations family individuals communities Critical issues are body mind soul e The built environment facilities infrastructure systems J Production systems goods products services 0 Resource base different types of capital With two additional levels of complexity I Spatial scale of sustainability site local state regional national global footprint etc Temporal scale of sustainability today 1 yr 15 yr 5 10 yr etc Sustainability What kind I Economic sustainability I Social sustainability I Financial sustainability and I Ecological sustainability Sustainability and Sustainable Development De nition Sustainable development is the challenge of meeting human needs for natural resources industrial products food transportation shelter and waste management while conserving and protecting environmental quality and the natural resource base essential for future development Policy Statement ASCE TAC Subcommittee on Sustainability 2001 The thfeie39E 5 of 3 P svf0fSuSiai abililjl 5113 la main l 1y Sustainable development implies a new and healthier balance in how we conduct our human affairs one that celebrates depth along with surfaces community along with individuality spirituality along with materialism art along with linear technique a new humanism K Frankel 6 Emerging Trends Rapid global economic growth Expansion of resource consumption Growing awareness of the consequences of rapid growth Emergence of new powerful stakeholders and a new worldview Emergence of credible alternatives to business as usual NC TNS ZERI Questions w Is it possible to satisfy the needs of an exponentially growing population while preserving the carrying capacity of our ecosystems and the diversity of our cultural systems N0 J Can we keep on living on our capital but not on the interest of that capital NO J Do today s engineering graduates and engineers have the skills and tools to address the global problems that our planet and humans are facing today or will be facing within the next 20 years No The significant problems we face cannot be solved by the same level of thinking that created them Albert Einstein SUSTAINABILITY AND THE BUILT ENVIRONIVIENT CLASS NOTES FROM THURSDAY MARCH 4th 2004 0 Administrative Items Read article by Tim Wirth for Tuesday s class Maximum three page writing assignment due next Thursday discussing interrelated problems and systems thinking Read Cradle to Cradle and write a 510 page response by midApril More info will come 0 Traditional Thinking Govems the Modern World Linear thinking Engineering thinking Ca1tesian thinking Rene DesCartes circa 1619 had a lifechanging dream during which were revealed to him four principals for evaluating reality 1 Never accept anything for truth that is not clearly defined as such Everything can and should be divided into parts for analysis and then divided and divided again and again to facilitate examination Analysis should begin by looking at the easiest part first followed by the next hardest and then the next so as to work one s way from easiest to hardest during examination Conclusions and enumeration should be kept very general and broadbased so as not to omit anything N E 4 DesCartes s thinking divided the human experience into two parts the mind which should operate like a machine calculated and precise and the soul the domain of which belonged to the heavens 0 Systems Thinking as an Alternative to Traditional Thought Based on the premise that groups of interacting independent parts are all linked together by exchanges of energy matter andor other binding forcing This interdependence of parts is a diagnostic property of systems as a whole Essential to systems is the concept of emergence the notion that the whole is greater than the sum of its parts or that emerging properties come out or emerge from the whole that don t exist in individual components Examples of systems out of which things emerge Thicket of aspen trees habitat carbon sequestration Community gardens friendship community growth Distributed Computing increased computing value to all users Automobiles speed performance Systems and Chaos Chaos is de ned as the underlying connectedness that exists in apparently random events It focuses on hidden patterns nuances the sensitivity of things and the rules of how the unpredictable leads to the new Chaos by nature can lead to order and is therefore a good thing For example we will always learn from unforeseen accidents or mistakes As a result of this chaos systems tend to selforganize preserving their internal equilibrium while retaining a measure of openness to the external world Characteristics of chaotic systems dynamic with self organization order through chaos as described above small things can have huge consequences eg one car accident creates huge problems on freeways during rush hour a first encounter with a future spouse coupled negative and positive feedback loops openness and bifurcation creative cooperative sharing nonlinear and diverse simple complex dialectical dialectical vs duality the notion that interaction is communal dialectical open and interactive rather than of a divided nature duality rightwrong or oneway For example discussion duality vs dialogue dialectic synchronicity eg you re thinking of something and then it actually happens fractal patterns of subdivided chaos Effects of Chaos Chaotic events can have extremely large impacts events of September 11 2001 have led to worldwide changes in foreign policy malaria outbreak in Borneo led to dramatic public health policies and sometimes outrageous political action Operation Cat Drop These results are often unexpected because of unseen underlying interconnectedness Technical failures or negative environmental impacts occur when engineers fail to examine and understand the big picture Composition of a System Systems are composed of various parts each interrelated and with its own purpose within that system These parts may con ict with or complement each other This is contrary to Cartesian thinking which does not recognize such interrelationship DesCartes would view the world as a huge machine with each part doing its own thing independent of others This type of thinking is dangerous in that it leads one to think that these parts can be controlled or managed for bene t Important Deduction The world is not what we especially engineers have been trained to think it is The Cartesian system is obsolete Types of Systems Isolated 7 system boundaries to the import and export of mass and energy eg a laboratory experiment Closed 7 system boundaries are closed to the import and export of mass but not energy eg earth Open 7 system boundaries are open to the exchange of both mass and energy with its surroundings life Simple 7 systems with only a few variables components or parts Complex 7 systems with many variables all sensitive and subject to a changing dynamic equilibrium eg the weather What Makes a System Its underlying parts form a system not a heap or pile eg remove a grain of sand from a pile of sand a heap and the pile of sand is still a pile of sand remove a species from the earth a system and the equilibrium of the system is affected The whole is greater than the sum of its parts There is an interconnected purpose of each underlying part Causes and effects are circular in nature not linear Chaos in the system leads to order eg learning change evolution Early Systems Thinkers Greeks 2000 years ago Native American cultures Global View A global view of systems thinking would incorporate the following see the world around us as a whole instead of just snapshots see multiple levels of perspective rather than a causeeffect interaction see the dynamic changing nature of life including time domains and delays associated with that dynamic eg oscillating temperatures in a London shower with poor response to changes in temperature dials recognize that we humans are part of and inside the system and that perspective changing everything ie systems are sensitive to both physical and temporal perspectives challenge our own assumptions and mental models 0 Not Systems Thinking Scienti c analysis which breaks down components into manageable pieces for examination and manipulation 0 Examples of Complex Systems with Feedback Loops Cold war arms race many complex political interrelationships especially between the US and USSR sensitivity and reactive delays eg buildup of arms vs counterbuildup 7 an example of a positive feedback loop which if left unchecked would destroy the system negative feedback loops Soviet government went defunct French Revolution positive feedback interactions with edgling United States bolstered political relations and future outlook for France negative feedback exhaustion of funds during US revolution curtailed investment in France and led to overthrow and restructure of French government 0 The Powers of Ten Short movie to reinforce the ideas of perspective and humility and belonging when we examine the universe as a whole we begin to realize there is a lot that we as humans do not understand or even begin to understand when we examine some portion of the universe we can always step back or forward and find ourselves in a new realm of perspective in which is present a multitude of aspects different from our those in our previous view Ecological Footprint Every organism be it a bacterium whale or person has an impact on the earthThe key question is whether this load exceeds what nature can sustainability support Sharing Nature s Interest N Chambers et al 2002 Ecological Footprint The Ecological Footprint measures how much productive land and water area biologically productive space a population an individual a city a country or all of humanity requires to produce all the resources it consumes and to absorb all the waste it generates using prevailing technology Natural capital Available biologically productive space biological capacity ecological footprint demand on ture ecological deficit if lt 0 From Rede ning Progress 2002 Surface area of the Earth 51 Ocean and inland water area 366 72 Land area 144 28 Biologically productive area 114 22 Land 91 Water 23 Population 6 billion Biologically productive area 2002 19 hectaresperson Biologically productive area 2030 11 hectaresperson Average ecological footprint 2002 23 hectaresperson Ecological deficit 04 hectaresperson ln billion hectares From Redefining Progress 2002 Country 2002 Pop Ecological Current De cit in millions Footprint ha Capacity ha if lt0 ha World 62101 23 19 O4 USA 2883 96 60 36 Canada 312 69 159 90 Mexico 1008 24 18 O6 China 12842 16 11 O5 India 10534 08 07 O1 20 larger than capacity 12 yr equivalent Not counting space needed for other species From Rede ning Progress 2002 TODAY39S ECOLOGlCAL FOOTPRINT EXCEEDS EARTH39S CAPACITY x W 12 Ecomgica ou 3 WNWM s c Number of Earths 61 55 7o 75 80 85 9o 95 99 Year Humanity s consumption and waste production today exceed the Earth s capacity to create new resources and absorb wastet We are currently liquidating natural capitalto support current resource use reducingthe Earth s abilityto supportfuture life In conclusion we are liquidating natural capital to support current resource use thereby reducing the Earth s capacity to support future life The bottom line for sustainability becomes How can each person have a satisfying life within the world s average biological capacity and not the national biological capacity of 4 7 acres 1 9 hectares per person or less Sustainable Development as Improving the quality of life while living within the carrying capacity of supporting ecosystems Sharing Nature s Interest N Chambers et al 2002 Quality oflife 7N0 achieved Achieved B L J 3 J 3 4 8 5 gt I U A Nature s carrying m I capactty 3 8 F E a 2 5 U 2 g A I V B C Minimum arr n mhk1 qua39lity of life Figure 13 Achieving quality of life within the means ofnature mapping out the process of achieving sustainability Is the Gross Domestic Product GDP a good proxy measure of quality of life J v 52055 BOMEHC noun Imago Hg 5 GENUINE PPUERESSINDICAIOR r 2W 9 959 1963 NW 1975 193v 95 xygu 191 With a current population of 6 billion Earth is becoming a place in which human populations are gt More consuming gt More crowded gt More connected gt More or less diverse and in which liVing systems and cultures are in increasing jeopardy Eunh MW mummy Pmurruhh 1 Mar infatmnliun awrlnhlc an m Nmmm Imp 39unrpylnln gaywallle 27hlml Impmum mmsagmwmpunw 12 Billion lack clean water 24 Billion lack adequate sanitation 24 Billion are at risk with malaria 35000 children die from hunger daily 11 billion overfed vs 11 billion underfed 12 Billion lack adequate housing 18 Billion live in conflict zones in transition or in situations of permanent instability 42 billion are unable to read IN THE NEXT TWO DECADES ALMOST 2 BILLION ADDITIONAL PEOPLE WILL POPULATE THE EARTH THIS GROWTH WILL CREATE DEMANDS ON AN UNPRECEDENTED SCALE FOR mm mm PRODUCTION FOOD SUPPLY PRESERVATION DISPOSAL 5mm Wmmm mm mm mm mmmm commaquot mm mm mmwmow HANDLING STABILIZATION EARTH MOWNG DEMAND MEGACITIES Cities With population gt 10 million gt 5 3 in developing world in 1975 gt 26 22 in developing world by 2015 World s population in cities POPULATION OF THE 11 LARGEST URBAN AGGLOMERATIONS m Tokyo 21 9 New York gt 15 6 Mexico City 13 9 Sao Paulo 12 1 Shanghai 117 05 a 100 Buenos Aires 99 LosAngeles 95 Calcutta 90 Beijing 90 Pan39s Millions 2015 Tokyo 265 Tokyo New York 16 3Mumba1 Sao Paulo 61 Lagos Mexlco City 155 Shanghai Shanghai 147Jakana umbaj 145 Sao Paulo Los Angeles 12 2 Kmeku Beijing 12 0 Beijing Calcutta 1 1 Dhaka Seoul 115Mexico city Jakana M New York 1618 Source World Urbaniw39an mepectx 772 1994 szixian United Nations Population Birth Rate Death Rate Fertility Rate Infant Mortality Rate Domestic Water Use Industrial Water Use Agricultural Water Use Gross National Product Arable Land Energy Use Land Area Population and Environmental Data Country Annual Increase United States 06 Itaty Will not double at current rate Russia Losing population From Multiplying People Dividing Resources 2002 OVERPOPULATION CAUSE OF INSTABILITY amp CONFLICT of Population Under Age 15 Doubling Time in Years West BankGaza Saudi Arabia Afganistan Iraq Syria Jordan Egypt Iran Lebanon Israel India United States Finland 47 43 43 40 36 36 29 29 36 21 18 NNwwmarxLNNA Percent 50 40 3O 20 1O 20 4O 60 80100120 Years From Population Press AprilMay 2002 Table 11 Consumer Spending and Population by Region 2000 Share of World Private Share of Consumption World Region Expenditures Population percent United States and Canada 315 52 Western Europe 287 64 East Asia and Paci c 214 329 Latin America and the Caribbean 67 85 Eastern Europe and Central Asia 33 79 South Asia 20 224 Australia and New Zealand 15 04 Middle East and North Africa 14 41 SubSaharan Africa 12 109 I 09 Popula oh Hum 200 SW TH E vmvalSIL PR8 JUNE 5 mamMO Awa moo I800 W K 7H6 SPECIE MW 77 REFOKYEDLY BIG BDAIM 112 Land area ofthe Earth 150 X 1012 In2 Initial Population 60 X 109 Annual Percent Increase 168 Present area ier ierson 21 YEARS 5m YEARS 3 39 2 132 um aims 1 m Annual Percent 1995 Population Increase millions 1990 1995 World 5759 168 Africa 744 293 Egypt 59 220 Nigeria 127 313 Asia 3408 1 78 China 1233 142 India 931 191 North and Central America 418 165 Canada 29 138 Mexico 94 206 Nicaragua 4 3 74 United States 263 103 South America 320 167 Europe 516 027 France 58 037 Germany 81 044 Italy 58 009 United Kingdom 58 024 USSR Former 288 051 Oceania 29 151


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