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by: Jeremy Steuber


Jeremy Steuber

GPA 3.87

William Travis

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William Travis
Class Notes
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This 104 page Class Notes was uploaded by Jeremy Steuber on Thursday October 29, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to GEOG 2412 at University of Colorado at Boulder taught by William Travis in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 14 views. For similar materials see /class/231900/geog-2412-university-of-colorado-at-boulder in Geography at University of Colorado at Boulder.




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Date Created: 10/29/15
Lowenthal cont Much of human impact has been seen as positive especially from Enlightenment thru the Industrial Revolution see Count Buffon s quote on p 122 Raw nature is useless until cultivated dammed etc Wilderness is bad until tamed Adverse sideeffects like soil erosion can be solved other problems like species loss were not problems This strongly evident in American pioneer exploitation of resources Lowenthal cont Holes in this argument showed up as human pressure grew modern agriculture and industrialization spread and impacts grew Lowenthal cites George Perkins Marsh a Vermont farmer and polymath as messenger of concern in US Marsh revolutionized env thought Artificial improvement everywhere commingled with tokens of improvident waste Marsh visited Mediterranean saw lessons of de vegetation retuned to VT saw same occurring Marsh was impressed with the deforestation over grazing and soil quot erosion he saW while traveling in the Mediterranean No doubt those habitats had been more affected and degraded by humans than his native Vermont where he was 39 afraid the same effects might occur as settlement spread Of course 39 part of his perception might be due Coastal Spain Near Barre VT Lowenthal on Marsh Marsh increasingly saw Man as transformer Theme 2 in this class and negative influence He concluded that despite longheld views human impacts on env often were Largely unintended Often harmful Irreversible Marsh showed concern for nature in its own right but oddly he also judged nature moralistically it had good and bad right and wrong elements a man of his times and religion Wasteful practices like lumbering wo replanting the cutoverquot lands in Upper Midwest above le overextended amp inappropriate dryland farming the Dust Bowl above and overkilling of the bison below raised concerns that conservation or technical resources management was not much better than old fashioned pioneer exploitation Lowenthal after Marsh came Roots of modern Conservation after about 1900 meant to fix human use of nature with proper scientific practices but continued to hold the idea that humans could correctly subdue nature and make it serve our needs even better if we applied the right approach Resource Management Theme 3 in this class Then the negatives went really bad Dust Bowl major pollution episodes etc seemed to show even scientific resource management was a problem Counter Idea then became the root of modern environmentalism technology did not enhance nature but destroyed it Humans needed to learn from nature follow an ecological path environmentalism biocentricism Restore the balance of nature H New Ecological Paradigm Riley Dunlap et aI The NEP explores the current state of our understanding of nature and our relation to it First how to read Dunlap et al Focus on their assessment of the content of the scale and its usefulness at measuring the construct of an ecological paradigm Skim the material on constructing the new scale and internal consistency pp 434435 Do carefully read about the scale s Predictive Validity p 436 And about Trends p 437 New Ecological Paradigm Riley Dunlap et al You ll recognize the set of perceptions and notions of nature in the 15 polar statements Dunlap et al use to measure commitment to NEPorDSP The reality of growth limits 1 6 11 Antianthropocentrism 2 7 12 Fragility of nature s balance 3 8 13 Rejection of exemptionalism 4 9 14 Possibility of ecocrisis 5 10 15 Example Exceptionalism 4 Human ingenuity will insure that we do NOT make the earth unlivable 9 Despite our special abilities humans are still subject to the laws of nature 14 Humans will eventually learn enough about how nature works to control it Example Fragility of nature s balance 3 Humans are severely abusing the environment 8 The balance of nature is strong enough to cope with the impacts of modern industrial nations 13 The balance of nature is very delicate and easily upset Saplemhar 1953 Ram 31 m5 Natural Disasters Are Increasing Rapid increase from first good counts in 1960s In 1970s and 1980s over 20 countries reported disasters that killed at least 10000 people Seven countries reported disasters that killed over 100000 eg Bangladesh storm surge Economic losses increasing too Overall disasters are increasing A 1995 at 170b included Kobe Japan earthquake worst ever in industrialized country Some estimates put deaths at 5000 and losses at 200b Effects of the 1995 Kobe Japan Earthquake in u W A And economic losses are increasing too We39re now into years with 1005 losses in 2002 dollars gt0039 80 coo n a u 3 m JHH hall I l I II Wm um man was vwn mm mm l 1 w m lmmmu mmmmmm Mulmlyll inlummlumwmmmlwn Possible Causes of Disaster Trends Population growth occupancy of hazard zones more people at risk and more in risky areas eg coastal Urbanization more people packed into small areas Economic growthmore stuff at risk Land pressure and degradation deforestation worsens floods poor farming worsens drought impacts Inequality more poor people at risk vulnerability Political change less social supports for atrisk populations less development spending Technical innovation Climate change and other physical changes in intensity and frequency of hazardous events more events equal more impacts These are all debatable no single factor probably the cause for increasing losses to natural hazards Problems with Response to hazards Low probability high consequence low frequency means many people ignore the risk but when it happens lots of impacts Risk versus benefit people will take a risk for a certain benefit eg to live in a particular place to obtain resources like fertile soils on volcanic slopes and floodplains etc everyone has their own riskbenefit calculation How much can people or societies invest in prevention mitigation etc When does this become inefficient By what measure eg cost of a human life Risk perception people assess risks differently Hazard Response and Choice The Natural Events ENYS BV PRINCIPAL CAUSAL AGEm EXTREM sgsmvmm BIOLOGICAL anquot oraiogzcai Geoumpivgc Floral Faunal 3 ram 1 and Avalanche rock Fungal dgtsease Samenal vIraL snow examples and pmmzoav Avaimshesnuw disease Aways tom examples kanhquaxo Dumh eim Wheat stem rust In uenza Malaria Erosion mm 39 Typhus Eubnnic lague ivy m m and mare and n festahon beam evusmr examples Venereal disease ables eads Hoot and momh hveamphykes disease Hanls orm alsr hyacvmh Tobaccn mosalc vev H931 wave smmng sand ouson IVy Iniesta on Red tide examples Lancan smKe Tsunar39n dam Rabbits Valamc emmm Termnes LDCUSKS Grasshoppevs Venomous ammal nae Temperamm m cm Tornado e ll focus on Geophyscal events upl a cyclone as hazards Threshold of magnitude that poses Hazard various across place and societies Measures Magnitude or intensity speed of Wind height of flood depth of snow shaking of earthquake Frequency how often event occursin given time frame or probability of occurrence In some time frame Duration Aerial extent Speed of onset Spatial dispersion Temporal spacing MA Chap 4 Biodiversity Main messages 43 Anthropogenic Drivers Skip this section 44 Recent Trends in Biodiversity 46 Summary of Trends MA Chap 4 Biomes and changes The majority of biomes have been greatly modified by humans Between 20 and 50 of 9 of the 14 biomes have been transformed to croplands Tropical dry forests are the most reduced by cultivation with almost half of the biome s native habitats replaced with cultivated lands Three other biomes temperate grasslands temperate broadleaf forests and Mediterranean forests have experienced 35 or more conversion Biomes least reduced by cultivation include deserts boreal forests and tundra Ooeanic Antarctic Biome TMF Trupica and sub tmpica moist broadleaf crests TDF Trunica and subtropica dry broad eaf crests a submpma caniferuus inres s 0 m 4 a E n E m huplca grasslands savannas and shmb ands Temperale grass ands savannas and shrumands FG Handed urasslands and savannas 39 MG39 Montana grass ands and snrumands T Tundra MF Mediterranean forests wnm ands and scrub i D Desens and xenc shrub ands I M Mangroves Lakes Rock and ice x Bioaeoaraohlc rea m Bunne TMF Tropical and subtrepisal moist bro adleat forests TDF Trepical and suetrepieal dry breadleaf forests TCF Tropical and suntropical coniferous faresis TeEiF Temperate breedieaf and mixed ferests TeGF Temperate eeniferous ferests BF Bdreel ferestsitaiga TG Trepical and subtrepisal grasslands ssvannas and shrulbIands TeG Temperate grasslands savannes and slhrublands FG Flooded grasslands and savannas MG Montane grasslands and shrublands T Tundra MF Mediterranean ferests weddlands and scrub D Deserts and xerle shrublands M Mangroves Lakes Rack and ice 14 TEE FEE t 6 TDF I I I I I I I I 20 30 4Q 50 50 7 0 80 90 10K Lees bf Remaining Habitat 1950 tb 1990 We Remaining Native Land Caver in 1950 11 Figure 425 Helatienehip between Native Habitat Lees by 1950 and Additional Leases between 1950 and 1990 Binnie bodies as TMF Trop and Subtrop moist broadleaf forests tropical rainforest TG Trop and Subtrop Grassland Savannahs and Shrublands T Arctic or Alpine tundra Habitat Change in the Biomes MA 43 Fragmentation Fragmentation A major issue in habitat and land use change is habitat fragmentation which leads previously continuous habitats to become divided Conversion of habitat and insertion of barriers roads etc creates habitat patches Problem of islands emerges biodiversity and pop inversely related to patch size Habitat Fragmentation Basic trends habitat fragmented into smaller further apart patches shrink intensified by edge effect interior vs edge species Remaining patches grow further apart more isolated individuals plants and animals increasingly can t move among them Fragments reside in a matrix of anthropogenic disturbed habitat farmland subdivisions etc often inhospitable to native species Species change those obligated to the remaining habitat patches decline those able to move among patches and utilize the humandominated matrix hold on Especially Generalist able to use patch edge and matrix increase deer raccoons many weeds Fragmentation most easily observed in forest habitat is caused by many human activities forestry left or recreation below and it also occurs in grasslands savannah wetlands riparian habitats etc Anywhere that humans transformations cut up continuous habitat 39 339 name interior species 7 edge species I I If r39lllI inteme habitat 3quot edge habitat Menor mum and species decrease edge habitat and species incJase Edge Effect and edge vs interior species We can mitigate the fragmenting effects of some barriers like highways by them more permeable here an overpass north of Banff Canada is meant a way for bears to get from one side ofthe highwayto the other aking s a Summary of Biodiversity Trends MA Chap 46 Current rates of species extinction are at least two orders of magnitude above background rates aLd are expected to rise to at least three orders above bacquound rates and they are increasing 20 of all species in those groups that have been comprehensively assessed mammals birds amphibians conifers and cycads are believed to be threatened with extinction in the near future For birds the only taxon for which enough data are available this proportion has increased since 1988 BirdLife 2004a Even among species not threatened with extinction the past 20 40 years have seen substantial declines in population size or the extent of range in most groups monitored Second chanqes are varied Rates of biodiversity decline although very largely negative vary widely on at least three dimensions Taxonomically certain groups appear more vulnerable to change than others thus amphibians and freshwater organisms in general exhibit higher levels of threat and steeper rates of population decline than do betterknown groups such as birds or mammals Within groups phylogenetically distinct ancientI and speciespoor lineaqes seem consistently to be faring disproportionately badly Some qeneralist species are expanding their ranges either naturally or as invasive aliens whereas many ecological specialists are in decline Spatiallv most species losses to date have been concentrated on islands Disproportionately high rates of contemporary habitat conversion in endemicrich areas of the tropics where areas of dense human settlement and high species richness tend to coincide mean that impending extinctions are particularly concentrated in tropical island and montane systems In temperate regions in contrast substantial historical reductions in habitat extent have led to relatively few global extinctions due in part to species having larger ranges at higher latitudes Currently populations and habitats are expanding in some temperate regions such as temperate forests Temporally two patterns stand out The first is that the scale of loss is in qeneral increasinq although it is important to note that both on land and at sea preindustrial humancaused losses were also very substantial The second pattern is that the anthropoqenic drivers of loss are also chanqinq for example invasive species and overexploitation were the predominant causes of bird extinctions in historic times while habitat conversion especially to agriculture is the most significant driver currently facing threatened species with climate change predicted to emerge as another major threat in the near future Third changes are complex EG It is also becoming clear that often ecosystems respond not linearly to external changes but in a stepwise manner Myers 1995 Thus cumulative biotic or abiotic pressures that at first appear to have little effect may lead to quite sudden and unpredictable changes once thresholds are crossed MA Synthesis Chap 28 39Skip It Theme 3 Interacting with Environment as Resource amp Hazard i Natural Resources We ll begin Theme 3 with look at natural resources management principles see the eReserve reading for some basic intro Resources material goodsservices we derive from the environment Technology economics and culture define natural resources soil uranium even naturalness defined at different times by different societies Nonrenewable Stock vs renewable Private vs Public common property Natural Resources Exploitationuse SupplyDemand ampYield efficient depletion rates for stock resources and enhanced extractionrecovery conservation and management of renewables sustained yield maximized yield multiple use Concept of ecological services has expanded the notion of natural resource Natural Resources Soils Water Minerals Energy Farmland Forests Rangeland Wildlife Fisheries Parks Preserves Wildlands Open space Outdoor recreation Biodiversity Theme 2 The Human Transformation of the Earth Earth Systems affected Energy radiation balance Atmosphere Biogeochemcical cycles carbon nitrogen Hydrological Ecological Biosphere Lithosphere solid earth terrain soil Outcomes compared to natural baseline What system attributes state fluxes storages composition were changed Land cover habitat biodiversity species number Climate temperature and precipitation Hydrology runoff vs infiltration Net radiation properties income vs outgo Biogeochemical fluxes CARBON NITROGEN Spercies mix Other ecological processes eg fire PURPOSEFUL changes made with the goal of that change to accomplish a social goal eg forest cleared for cropping INADVERTENT results of the purposeful change were not explicitly sought may be positive or negative Driving Forces POP GROWTH CONSUMPTON GROWTH wealth TECHNOLOGY POLITICALECONOMY Structure of the linked economic and political systems features like globalization world systems CULTURAL FACTORS traditions beliefs and ideologies mm 39 Land Cover species habitat but also radiation climate etc Land cover state change forest to grassland pasture Tropical forest cover is purposefully removed to Clear land for agriculture gs Hydrologic Cycle Humans intercept runoff often increase ET and infiltration thru irrigation Lithosphere Geomorphology soil rates Human shape the land physically and often inadvertently increase soil erosion Lithosphere humans purposefully intervene in eg coastal geomorphology to maintain waterways ports and beaches Earth System Science systems affected Energy in vs out radiation balance Atmosphere temp precip wind etc Bioqeochemcical cycles carbon nitrogen fluxes and storages Hydroloqical flux and storage Ecological Biosphere composition population morphology age etc Lithosphere solid earth shape of terrain soil formation and movement erosion Back SOLAR quot53mg RADIATION k r Reflectedk f V by su abe 75 7 e g Re ected by CIDLIdS ATMOSPHERE Absorbed by water vapor and gases NET LD NGWEUE E Em led by blends Ara Em il39tecl by Abserbed water vapor by and gases water H b r L and gag quot39 9 t EARTH39 S ENERGY BUDGET Re ected Re ected from by clouds face Re ected by atmosphere earth39s sur 6 4 delzled to space from clouds and osphere Incoming solar energy 100 Absorbed by Him osphere 1 6 Ali owed I MamaRH u Absorbed by land and oceans 51 NASA Earth Radiation Balance Experiment Energyradiation balance Incoming solar shortwave radiation Reflection back to space by clouds particles surfaces Absorbed into systems becomes sensible heat chemical energy or does work like moving air Re radiated outgoing terrestrial or long wave back to space or intercepted and reradiated Human Transformations of EnergyRadiation balance Mostly Inadvertent Change atmospheric transmission pollutants Change surface fluxes absorption and reflection albedo reflected Add or subtract heat nlmmlon mm Groundwater Gruundwater Flow Hydrologic Cycle Evaporation and transpiration also called evapotranspiration or ET Condensation ancl Precip P Surface Runoff aka Streamflow R0 Infiltration l Surface and subsurface storage Inadvertent or Unintended Interventions Evaporation and transpiration ET deforestation sfc water storage Precip P air pollution global warming Runoff Ro paving and structures lnfiltration l soil compaction Ground Water fill wetlands water logging Purposeful Interventions Evaporation and transpiration ET remove vegetation burning spraying etc Precip P cloud seeding Runoff Ro stormwater drains damsreservoirs lnfiltration I plowing impermeable covers GW injectionrecharge Ground Water pumping to sfcdischarge 3 Dams are the most obvious human intervention in freshwater runoff and storage Unregulated Flow versus GP 2021 Blissouri River at Gavins Point Long Term Daily Discharge 18981997 Discharge lick lrl lr39l 3r1 4V1 51 6 1 quotMl Xrl 91 lOrl llr39l 121 Dale A common often purposeful effect of dams is to alterthe rhythm of runoff typically reducing natural baseline maxima peaks and raising natural baseline minima as in this hydrograph for the Missouri River Nitrogen Cycle Storage in air 78 of atmosphere very common element Essential ingredient in proteins and thus life Slow to cycle into lithosphere soil hydrosphere and biospherea socalled limiting factor Must be fixed into ammonia NH3 by of all things lightning and Nfixing bacteria Ihis is called a natural bottleneck that limited lux So humans developed ways to get more N past the bottleneck a German scientist developed industrial way to fix nitrogen into fertilizerntypically using natural gas as a feed s oc Nitrogen in the form of liquid anhydrous ammonia is used extensively for fertilizer Much of it fixed by plants but some is volatized back into gas denitrification or goes into solution in ground and surface water Defixed denitrification by decomposing bacteria Heavily affected by human action 50 or more of nitrogen fixation now supported managed by humans mostly for agriculture Acid rain algal blooms etc WOW Global Cycles Budgets and Balances Storages total increase saturate decrease Fluxes inputs and outputs across subsystems and storages Human interventions often at bottlenecks or points of leverage Sets of purposeful and inadvertent effects Introduce the UN Millennial Ecosystem Assessment The Millennial Ecosystems Assessment is a UN project to measure the status of the world s ecosystems changes caused by human and natural forces and the effects of those changes on human well being Read more httpwwwmillenniu ssessmentorqlenAbout0verview aspx We focus on just a small part of this huge effort and document Direct and Indirect Drivers of Ecological Change Chap 3 Summary Biodiversity Chap 4 sections Main Messages 43 44 and 46 Synthesis Chap 28 Indirect Drivers of Ecological Chap 3 MA Population growth rates have peaked total peak at 10b in next 50100n years more urban older Urbanization Economic growth GDPincome grew 7X 19502000 Changes in food consumption Changes in energy and materials intensity unit energy used per unit economic output Sociopolitical increase in democracy international cooperation community empowerment but also increase of markets amp trade globalization Science I technology significant advances in tetchnology of food production energy transportation e c The effects vary sometimes pop growth increases impacts while pop growth associated with different economics and sociopolitics might actually decrease impacts eg some nations protect species and habitats Direct Drivers Land cover change Deforestation low latitudes reforestation higher latitudes Urbanization pop urbanized urban growth sprawl urbanrural interactions Agricultural spread and intensification Direct Drivers Overexploitation Oceans harvest levels Fishing Habitat Change loss and degradation Freshwater hydrologic regime change dams etc Nutrient loading nitrogen and phosphorous Climate Change Invasive species introduced plants and animals purposeful and inadvertent ecology downstream water quality and species diversity often changes In the case of the dam shown earlier Dutch John Dam on the Green River in Utah predam conditions included warm siltladen water in which species like the Pike Minnow above thrived But the dam caused water temps to drop and restricted the flow of sediment which ends up in the reservoir which created conditions the Pike Minnow is not adapted to but trout like this brovm trout do like the cold clear water and once introduced they take over the habitat They are quotgamequot sh in the sense that peo le want to catch h m an an economy of shing developed around the trout Wnich did not exist for the less desirable pike minnow still of course t e a not built to create a sport shery for university professors that is an incidental result So the best science still only gives a wide range of likely warming rates Temperaitu rev change FEE 42 Tmparema Ema age j 39 m 4 230 1 arm garlic M m glee Elem But even the lower projections of warming put us in temperature Vaunnonsot llmEarlhswacc lcnmlalum vcars iuouzr2mo territory unlike any in the kuvnmmwwn awn qu past several centuries quotquot quot quot W39 3335 Most analyses make them Earth by 2100 the as 39 warmest it has been in V since the last ice age as m Social Responses Adaptation Adapt to and deal with inevitable climate warming But What and Who is vulnerable mor or less able to adapt How do we project and plan for climate change And what if change is larger than projected Maybe even Catastrophic See readings eReserves Vulnerability to Climate Change and Perspectives on Dangerous Interference What do we in GEOG 2412 know about EnvSoc interactions that shednghtonthese ques ons We know a lot Perceptions of natural systems Humans tend to push natural systems to Maximum Sustained Yield Humans adapt to frequently experienced conditions Some natural systems are near thresholds of change We know a lot Humans form complicated perceptions of natural systems and their role in them will we all see GW as humaninduced How will we interpret coastal degradation sea level rise and coastal development in increasing coastal losses Humans tend to push natural systems to Maximum Sustained Yield and small changes in climate might tip them past a threshold of sustainability wildfire and pests in in forests etc or perhaps make them much more productive Humans adapt to frequently experienced conditions but have more trouble dealing with rare events and unusual conditions duhl Some natural systems are near thresholds of change in which small forcings cause large changes Bottlenecks like nitrogen fixation offer processes where small changes propagate into big changes Others are more robust to change Smith et al Vulnerability to Climate Change Their preamble Still many unknowns in social impacts vulnerability adaptive capacity re global wamring Baseline conditions change over time population settlement agricultural technology equity etc farming will be different in 50100 years in ways hard to predict Rate of change matters in ways not well understood beyond the obvious and simple hypothesis Faster change is more difficult to which to adapt Summary of Themes Smith et al Observations we already see impacts of 20th C warming especially on natural systems less on social systems Unique and Threatened systems tropical reefs glaciers ice sheets biodiversity hot spots are first in line at risk from climate change Distribution of impacts there will be winners and losers but overall LDCs most at risk esp nations with economies base din agriculture and other renewable resources sensitive to climate variation Aggregate impacts what is the net effect of warming Modest change is maybe even slightly positive to start Larger changes are almost certainly negative a loss of at least few global GDP over next 50100 years Let s examine first Smith et al s Unique and Threatened systems They list a few examples tropical reefs glaciers ice sheets biodiversity hot spots The similarities here are systems in delicate balance with natural conditions eg reefs grow slowly in very narrow range of depths and temps of the tropical oceans small warming or sea level rise can obliterate them or near some threshold of sustainability Sensitive Systems This sensitivity can also apply to large scale systems like biomes especially near their geographical limits or edges ecotones where modest climate change can result in large ecosystem change at a given point See Canadian example in next slide Can apply to socialtechnical systems like agriculture coastal land use etc Doubling of 20232 about manTm Ecotones natural boundaries are especially sensitive to shifting in a changing climate Note the dramatic transition in so Canada from forest to grassland within next 50 years with warming and drying projected by global warming models Sm imri Unclasaltne Other ecotones or natural boundaries are also areas where small climate changes can make large state changes in ecosystem The boundary bw forest and alpine tundra in mts west of Boulder is set mostly by temperature growing season length so warmer climate means treeline rises in elevation and due to simple lack of real estate tundra ecosystem shrinks maybe even disappears right off of the top of some mts along with its biodiversity Sensrtlve Low elevation coastal plains eg Florida with a 20ft increase in sea level here the same sea level rise causes more coastal retreat than it would in say Maine or much of CA where the land rises more steeply from the shore Aspen Mountain skiing If more snow falls as rain in the early and late ski season when air temps are near 32 degrees then snowpacks decline More Themes Smith et al Extreme events likely to increase faster than average climate Large Scale Singularities and very abrupt change are possible hard to assess Adaptive Capacity varies across social systems sectors and regions The ability to adapt to and cope with climate change impacts is a function of wealth technology information skills infrastructure institutions equity empowerment and ability to spread risk Groups and regions with adaptive capacity that is limited along any of these dimensions are more vulnerable to climate change damages just as they are more vulnerable to other stresses Enhancement of adaptive capacity is a necessary condition for reducing vulnerability particularly for the most vulnerable regions nations and socioeconomic groups To be sure some development paths can increase some types of vulnerabilities whereas others can reduce those vulnerabilities Smith et al encapsulate their overall concerns about global vulnerabilities to climate warming in this illustration which of course still fails to offer specific thresholds at which climate change becomes dangerous So additional assessment is underway to sort out what level of warming would be dangerous to global society see next slide next reading next week Risks from Futun Vet Law LargeScale Discuntmuines ham 6 or Negative Max1m Iinpms A was Im a Majo of Penple Adversely Affected 3 r P V t kahurinn Mgnme for Some REgmns Gamma Increase Risks from Extreme limat Evean Risks to Unique and R39Sks 5quot Tbrcntcncd Systcms 06 o 1 4 pm Emue p Increase in Global IVIEan Tempemtm39e after 1999 C1 Perspecth es on Dungerous Anthropogenic Interference or How 10 Oper39utionnlize Article 2 of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change Fan1mm Yumln Joel E Slnilh rind lnn Burton The FCCC sets as a longterm goal GHG reductions to reduce the potential or dangerous climate change but how to operationalize Dangerous Anthropogenic Interference dea and the paper by Yamin Smith and Burton see eReserves stem from a conference in Exeter UK on Dangerous Climate Change where PM Blair said scientists should nd a level that is quotselfevidently too much and tell policy makers Principles Individual Perception Mental images of environment formed through Experience information Filtered through Attitudes Culture eg Beliefs and Values Affected by limits on information and cognitive information processing Observed through selfreporting surveys overt behavior Problems with Env Perceptions Often wrongllll Selective and flavored by attitudes and beliefs cognitive dissonance disagreement between information received and beliefs or values Deformed by cognitive limits Damiel Kahneman Paul Slovic Amos Tversky See patterns in randomness Attribute causeeffect with little justification Base perceptions on short windows of observation Fix or anchor perceptions on notable events and take them as exemplars of whole genres one hurricane or wildfire used on what to expect from future cases See Kahneman s Nobel Prize lecture 2002 nobelprizeorgnobelprizeseconomicslaureates2002kahnemann lecturepdf How do we measure WRONG Scientific monitoring climate records wildlife behavior and demography studies soil erosion calculations all the rest of env science There are different Ways of seeing naturehere s an example from wildlife studies in which the researcher compares the perceptions of hunters and ranchers to park officials and wildlife biologists in the emotionallycharged issue of elk and wolves in Yellowstone Natl Park and does it with a catchy phrase The politics of barstool biology Environmental knowledge and power in greater Northern Yellowstone Geoforum 27 2006 185199 Paul Robbins Department of Geography and Regional Development garvill Building 437A University of Arizona Tucson AZ 85721 United tates Ve fe ef d ei if f f d e f fie Census E Cfunm Elk YNP Northern Ran e Robbins compared responses to a survey among hunters and out tters who know elk through their actually hunting as well as through their advocacy for keeping elk numbers high and keeping land available for public hunting vs wildlife managers who know elk tth studies ofpopulation and impacts ofthings like drought and wolves The phrase barstool biology is the managers informal term for the criticism offered sometimes in the bar in Gardiner MT where they a see other by hunters ofthe managers census counts and other scienti c ways of measuring and managing the elk herd Lowenthal s Themes Historical beliefs about environment env change and the impact of humans Evaluation and Explanations for change Turn to more negative assessments of change Attitudes in recent times environmentalism Lowenthal He fixes the roots of modern awareness of human transformation degradation of environment in mid19th century observations by naturalists and others But they do go back further in most ancient religious traditions environmental events were divinely ordained but linked to brought on by human foibles and behaviors the biblical flood Luther Adam s fall caused decay of nature the loss of Eden


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