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by: Kenton Grimes


Kenton Grimes

GPA 3.7

Michael Huemer

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About this Document

Michael Huemer
Class Notes
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This 4 page Class Notes was uploaded by Kenton Grimes on Friday October 30, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to PHIL 4400 at University of Colorado at Boulder taught by Michael Huemer in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 24 views. For similar materials see /class/232150/phil-4400-university-of-colorado-at-boulder in PHIL-Philosophy at University of Colorado at Boulder.




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Date Created: 10/30/15
Phil 4400 Notes 13 The Doomsday Argument Doomsday Possib ities Perhaps mankind will soon go extinct How could this happen 1r Nuc ear war 2 Environmental destruction 3 Asteroid impact 4 Disease genetically engineered or otherwise 5r Misuse ofnanotechnol l or We re living in a simulation and it gets shut down 7r Badly rog39rammed supen39ntelligenae 8r Physics experiments th 8888 S Doom Soon Mankind will soon go extinct This could happen from any of the above CauSESSr L Doom Late Mankind will survive far into the future Maybe humans will gure out how to avoid all those threatsl We consider just these two for the sake of simplicity Mankind will go extinct The question is when H The Doomsday Argument A The SelfSampling Assumption You should treat yourself as a random selection from all observersl Example 100 people including you are drugged and kidnaped Each is taken to a hotel rooml 39 quot 10areredl 39 39 39 39 what is the probability that your room is blue B Anodler Example quot39 kirirmn andtakmtnahnt lmnm run a i 39H 39 tum ithl mnm ma m 39 39 Fah hotel has its rooms labeled with integers starting from 1 room 1 room 2 eta 1 39 39 39 39 39 nati oi oaoiiit 2r mm man hotel Q2 mm mu lt the small hotel Bayes Theorem P04 l5 P14Pzl14P hPl a In this example let S are in the Small hotell L You are in the Large hotell B Your room number is 7r Applying Bayes Theorem PWE PlSPES PJ P EJPSPElS PS r N 1 120313 110 PES PailL 1100 Henee c The Doomsday Analogy d uin 39 Itiei iera quot A per Doom Soon or a longelived speeies per Doom Law Q1 What is the initial probability ofDoom 117 Q2 You learn Lh oo at you are approximately the o probability ofDoom Soon Let S Doom mm 0 billionLh human bomr Now what is the 100 il ion Doom Later Suppose this means the total of humans eyer to haye lived will be 1 trillion Your binh rank is 60 billion w1iatisPS7quot A 39 39 em r J L 10 and 901Let s leaye it as an unknown or What is 126113 ByBayes Tneorem Plle PWHE P5PESJP Dame 5 PS s P 1 e s REEF PEE15PltELJ loo b llo 1 mlhon Henae 1 17 PMJE 100131111011 1 l v 7 leg 5 IUObJJJAOn L r thrillion Multiplying numerator and denominator by 1 trillion giyes us Pg E1O 101 7 10 17x39 9 1 ical values 013 100 90 1 Try plugging in some hypothet Whens 0 POquot E Whehs 1 PM E Whens 1 pr E 10 91 Whens r5 PM E 30gt a 91 9 5gtel Cohalusioh E suppons s for all yalues ofs between 0 and 1r 39 39 39 O Wn V O 4 100 trillion people Lhen we get P S E 99951 Whehs r5 PJ Ejwz 999 999ogte1 Ill Criticisms of the Doomsday Argument A A disanalogr between 11B and 11C In the analo in I 339 Ithe aoih ip came up the other way Iwouldjust be somewhe e Ifih Tar 1 quotL L 39 r h 1h IIC e I already exist before the hoiel is chosen Which 0fSL is the case only affects whereI am h rmnm e Whichever of SL is the ease Iwouldnot be somewhere else ithe other one were the case 7 It is false that ifL were the ease I would probably how haye had a higher hinh order Eyeryhihg up in how would be exactly as it is B t it v r it V I order is Therefore the fact that someone has hinh order 60 billion does not suppon s oyer L or yiae versar e IfPEiH PEiH2 Lhen E suppons H if and only ifE suppons H e n Lhis case PSome0ne has bin order 60 billion i S 1 PSome0ne has bin order 60 billion i L ul i 39 mm wk 1 39 r M would be me X 0 My gramme is evMen cefor L Intuitive idea 7 39 39 d ould39o 100 billion Lhah L does 7 So My hinh order is lt100 billionquot is evidence for s oyer L inquot l 39 39 39 39 u 39 quotL becauseinLLhere would be ten times as mahy people 7 So my existence is evidence for LA 7 TL r r i i 7 Thus I exist and havebirth order lt 100 billion is overall neutral between S and LA The probability calculations That exist at sometime in the history othe species HEMP P5PEampBy5i PJPEampBisgtPmPtEseBlei 3 PS 1 r s PBlS 10 PBlS PEampBlSPBl5PElBamp5PBlf 100bilhon 1 1 PEampB NE PB5PEBampX10PBJ PBSi llll Hlm mnillmowho Thus plugging those things into the rst equation Pam I PMEMiJ 1 lOOb liOn 1 JPrBlEtiwLLliryPiBlJ39Ji WU L lOObillion 100bi lon


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