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The Earth System and Global Change

by: Ms. Michel Spencer

The Earth System and Global Change EARTH 002

Marketplace > Pennsylvania State University > Earth Sciences > EARTH 002 > The Earth System and Global Change
Ms. Michel Spencer
Penn State
GPA 3.56


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This 0 page Class Notes was uploaded by Ms. Michel Spencer on Sunday November 1, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to EARTH 002 at Pennsylvania State University taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 16 views. For similar materials see /class/232982/earth-002-pennsylvania-state-university in Earth Sciences at Pennsylvania State University.

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Date Created: 11/01/15
Earth 002 Chapter 1 Present and past global change 3878 ppmv Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide 2 Measured at Mauna Loa Hawaii gt JUIyy 2008 5 E 8 OJ 13 X 2 quotO C E Jan Apr Jul Oct Jan 8 ppmv 1980 1990 2000 1958 Source httQscriggsc02ucsdedu Graph from Wikkipedia Keeling curve interpretation 56 ppm seasonal cycle Annual Cycle Breathing of northern 39 39 hemisphere forests CO2 H2O lt gt CH2O 02 Hawaii is at 19 N so 002 is low in the fall following summertime Jam Apr Jul photosynthesis 002 is high in the Spring Graph from Wlkklpedla following wintertime respiration o 057 A D47 Cl Siple 0 South Pole Mauna Loa Fossil C02 emissions One hundred year running mean Atmospheric measurements A p O 002 concentration ppmv Fossil C02 emissions GtCyr O O 9 E ca 9 c 9 395 L E 320 a o r o o N O U 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 Year Source CIh7a2 e Change 7994IPCC See also The Eath System ed 2 Fig 13 I I Vostok From Skinner and Porter The Blue Panez 1995 We know where the 002 is coming from Oil Natural gas E quotE lquot1 U r 539 r S P U 3939quot 5 CU L g E S 1 Source Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center CDIAC See also The Eath System ed 2 Fig 162 Other greenhouse gases are increasing in concentration as well Concentration Rate of change 7 C Q 5 I I e 390 20 Methane increased steadily up until about the year 2000 It now appears to be leveling off Does this make sense IPCC 2007 Chapter 2 Fig 24 To answer this question one must think about where methane comes from Sources of methane Agricultural Rice paddies Cows and some people Methane is probably leveling out because food production has nearly stabilized Other sources Termites Natural gas leaksventing from oil wells Question What do the first 3 of these sources have in common Answer They all have anaerobic microenvironments where methanogenic bacteria methanogens can live Methane Item ee eeree CEu39IF 9Fi3f39J IIZCIF l39u39lET H l39IHE Cl HquotquotTIIIrquotJE FFll h 39quotf IraHIST RENE GREET JLN JD ICE CEIF me E 39ler idge etal Fi 1 E III III U 1 4 III III I 1 I I I 1 III III III I E I El I E Q E I z E E 1 I u Ei III III III I39 1 Inn 1 2m 1 4 ll 1 Eiljl 1 EIIJIJ 2 Ell MR HGE I E R AD The Earl7 System ed 2 Fig 164 Methane concentrations have more than doubledsince the preindustrial era 2 AQAGE NH u Khalil and Rasmussen 1988 b 39SH 0 Emeridgei Pearman and de Silva 1988 J gt r Zardini Raynaudl Scharffe and Seiler 1989 1 NOAJ GMD SH 3 a Q c 9 39639 Gquot t 3 c E N20 concentration ppbv r 0 500 1000 1500 1983 lQQOYe 1995 2000 2005 Date of sample Year AD ar Atmospheric measurements Ice core data IPCC 2007 Chapter 2 Fig 25 The Earl7 System ed 2 Fig 164 Freon12 Refrigerators air conditioners Freon11 Spray cans blowing agent for foams cleaning semiconductor chips Source Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2006 World Meteorological Organization Geneva Switzerland 2006 Freons are greenhouse gases but more importantly they also affect ozone A I h D gd 1 E 2 392 V D quotO 3 3 2 lt The Ozone Layer Atmospheric Ozone Stratospheric Ozone The Ozone Layer Tropospheric Ozone quotSmogquot Ozone Contains 90 of Atmospheric Ozone 39 Beneficial Role Acts as Primary UV Radiation Shield Current Issues Longterm Global Downward Trends Springtime Antarctic Ozone Hole Each Year Contains 10 of Atmospheric Ozone Harmful Impact Toxic Effects on Humans and Vegetation Current Issues Episodes of High Surface Ozone in Urban and Rural Areas 0 510152025 Ozone Amount pressure milliPascals if a m K c 5 1 7 4 Km r ow WV k J 9 r i NJ pi J g n L t g d a WI Minimum October ozone at Halley Ozone column depth thickness over Antarctica in October decreased steadily from 1960 to 1995 This of course is known as the ozone hole Since then it has stabilized and may even have started to recover A a F C 3 C o u o o D v a C o N 0 Ta 6 39 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 httpwwwantarcticaac ukm etjdsozone imageszminoctJPG 199325 200626 Iw Area 1a9u HIIWIIIIIIIII IIIIIIII mrags Sap T DEL 13 amna hula area millinns n 39 km jl 13m 225 199395 Mr I W 7 w 2005100 Mmlmum II I mun II 39 a 39 concentration Vamprag 15p 21 DEL 15 minimum azana t39Dntusnn Unit5 I ESEELI I ESL EDDLI Nata Na data were acquired during 1995 saasnn httpozonewatch gsfcnasagov The hole area also appears to have stabilized O O O O O O 0 O O N O O O 5 O O 4 O O O N 8 O 3 Mixing Ratio parts per billion 5 9 E1 m t N e 9 3 M CC E 5 2 Q U 64 6 68 Latitude degrees South See The Eath System ed 2 Fig 16 Bill Brune chairman of our Meteorology department played an integral role in making these measurements Back to climate CHUTEME NCDC GISS Lugina at al 21305 E in m I to 1 E D 5 U u L F E El 1880 1900 1320 13110 1950 Source IPCC 2007 report Ch 3 p 241 See also The Eath System ed 2 Fig 14 an summodum um INDIE mm Pallquot9 3 E g E g 8 g 12 00 432 04 06 08 1860 18m 19m 39 Annual mean a m an Errloathed aerlas ohzmlnzs 595 hm EMMA a dmdal error mumm Source 2007 IPCC report httpwwwipccch There is also statistical evidence that the rate of surface temperature increase is also increasing Changes in Arctic sea ice Sea ice minimum4979 Sea ice minimum2005 Arctic sea ice has diminished in extent during recent summers The fabled Northwest Passage long sought by explorers is now open briefly in the early Fall httpearthobservatorynasagovNewsroomNewlmages 2007 Arctic sea ice minimum httpwwwnasagovimagescontent190554mainAMSRE09142007r11536tif The 2007 Arctic sea ice pack was the smallest yet We re also very interested in hurricanes Are they getting stronger andor more frequent J It v39 sf Jfgh f httpenwikipediaorgwikiHurricaneKatrina Hurricane Katrina near peak strength Aug 28 2005 Summer EST by Gwen Basin 5year running averages 29 NIO Northern Indian Ocean WPAC Western Pacific SPAC Southern Pacific SIO Southern Indian Ocean EPAC Eastern Pacific NATL North Atlantic D 5 It E E 1 E h 15 quot 85 Ed 3 IE quotC In m E I1 m NI I39d U1 Webster et al Science 2005 Fig 1 Storm frequency vs time global A Tntal labalMumbar of Storms Total Global Numberof Sturm Days 100IlllllllllllllllIllllllllll 1 2mlllllllllllIllllllllllllllllilll a U D hurricanes stnrma hurricanes 1 star 639 C E D J G hurricanes I r 1 4 E m E h 3 an E E a 539 quot5 h u a E 2 1m pica Storms tropical terms Number of wclunic storm days t 8 g 1 5 Bil 35 90 95 00 Year Webster et al Science 2005 Fig 2 Number 01 hurrlcanes 39lrr i IiT I v i vlT lrFTi Il Il I W PAC N AT L W h m g E h n m 2 I E U 3 u D h m n E Z Webster et al Science 2005 Fig 3 Hurricane intensity vs time global I NILII miner m intense hurricanes I I I I I Percentage at in a nan hurricanes I I I I L cats 23 U39I E 3 maximum wind we I eat 1 1 cats 23 10 E D IJ39I E g 3 I M E la r J a E E 3 3 Percent tintall hurrivcanessl39rcatagury m 4D I I I I l TIE74 mm 80334 3539 SEI39E Elm3999 MIN 711181 39FEI WZI 334 3539 EI I EM 9499 pantad pentad Webster et al Science 2005 Fig 4 Webster et al s conclusions still controversial No obvious trend in hurricane frequency vs time but Number of Category 4 and 5 storms has doubled over the past 35 years 1 5 Frames Storm deposits Instrumental record u The Atlantic hurricane record shows unexplained periodicities Mike Mann is not sure these are real Modern hurricane activity is similar to that during the ME Mann et al Nature 460 880883 2009 MedieVa39 Warm PeriOd around 11501300 AD 12 5 o u a r 2 o gt u E 2 a 3 E E E lt In this course we will look at climate on longer time scales as well l y 39T y r li T vl l iiwl y V r r 7 Instrumental data AD 190210 1999 77 Reconstruction AD 100010 1980 Reconstruction 40 year smoothed 1998 instrumental value Q 23 ml 0 E0 of E9 95 20 Q 252 E mg I CE ea w I 1 0 Z Source CIh7a2 e Change 2007 IPCC Michael Mann Penn State professor of meteorology was instrumental in creating this diagram as well For even longer climate records we can go back to Antarctica Siple station From Skinner and Porter The Blue Panez 1995 Vostok ice core measurements 7 Depth m O 509 1 000 1 500 2000 39 2500 2750 3000 3200 3300 WI I I 1 lgtl I I I M 1ooooo yrs M 0 WWW WW W C02 ppmv Temperature C CH4 ppbv l IIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIIII4 I4 I I I I I I I I 0 I 50000 1 00000 150000 200000 250000 300000 350000 Last glaCIal maXImum Age kyr BR L I I 400000 The Earth System ed 2 Fig 19 Finally much of my own research concerns climate change on realylong time scales 0 D 9 an E5 DU 89 E9 20 a lt6 02 v 3 2 Time byr BP See The Eath System ed 2 Fig 112 Why the Sun gets brighter with time H fuses to form He in the core Core becomes denser Core contracts and heats UP Fusion reactions proceed faster More energy is produced gt more energy needs to be emitted 9 EH ES 3 we Time byr BP Question How did Earth remain habitable during its early history when the Sun was less bright Was it Gaia or was it something else


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