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by: Oleta Friesen

InternatlEconomicRelations ECO344

Marketplace > Miami University > Economcs > ECO344 > InternatlEconomicRelations
Oleta Friesen
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This 0 page Class Notes was uploaded by Oleta Friesen on Sunday November 1, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to ECO344 at Miami University taught by Staff in Fall. Since its upload, it has received 10 views. For similar materials see /class/233364/eco344-miami-university in Economcs at Miami University.

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Date Created: 11/01/15
Measuring Income and Income Growth Eco 344 International Economic Relations Professor Bill Craighead Nominal GDP GDP calculated at prices prevailing at time of transaction US Nominal GDP Billions 2000 98170 1990 58031 1980 27895 1970 10385 1960 5264 1950 2938 Source Bureau of Economic Analysis From 1950 2000 US Nominal GDP increased 33 times The price level changes over time 1 in 2005 is not equivalent to 1 in 1950 Real GDP GDP calculated in constant dollars effect of in ation removed US Real GDP Billions of 2000 2000 98170 1990 71125 1980 51617 1970 37719 1960 25600 1950 17773 Source Bureau of Economic Analysis From 1950 2000 US Real GDP increased 55 times The number of people in the US has increased US Real GDP per capita 2000 2000 34886 1990 28598 1980 22789 1970 18553 1960 14230 1950 11746 Source Bureau of Economic Analysis US Census Bureau From 1950 2000 US Real GDP per capita increased 3 times Overtime small differences in growth rates can make a big difference Example Consider a deposit of 1000 in one of two bank accounts Second National pays interest of 2 and BankFour pays interest of 4 Account Balance Years Second National 2 BankFour 4 1 1020 1041 10 1221 1492 25 1649 2718 50 2718 7389 Japan and Mexico had Virtually identical GDP per capita in 1890 In 2000 J apan s per capita GDP was roughly 3 times Mexico s Real GDP Per Capita 1990 PPPadjusted 1890 2000 Japan 1012 21051 Mexico 1011 7249 Average annual growth rate 18902000 Japan 28 Mexico 18 Source A Maddison Historical Statistics for the World Economy 12003 AD Growth of 1000 Deposit 60000 50000 40000 30000 20000 10000 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2 growth 4 growth Plotting the natural logarithm of a variable a logarithmic scale will give a straight line for a variable growing at a constant percentage rate Growth of 1000 deposit log scale 100000 10000 1000 1 17111HHHHHiHiHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHiiHHHHHHHHHHHHHHM 1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56 61 66 71 76 81 86 91 96 2 growth 4 growth US Real GDP Billions of 2000 194701 200803 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 w llllllvlVllllvlvblllVllll lllllxllVllllllllvlv39lllllvlv Q 3 O b lt3 9 C56 6 N952 30 q 33 q 236quot 39 3930 90 90 Source Bureau of Economic Analysis U8 Real GDP Billions of 2000 51 l9470l 200803 log Scale 20000 10000 8000 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 lllllllllulllxnluulllulllllllllnlnlxlllllylxllllllllllll Q Q o 36 36 90 as q ND 39 3983 30 69 199 963 I Real GDP Constant 3 27 Growth Source Bureau ofEconomic Analysis Switzerland US Iapan Mexico World Russia Botswana Brazil China Egypt India Nigeria GNI Per Capita 2007 7 60820 46 40 37790 7995 7 73930 6110 g 5860 I 2370 I 1580 7 950 I 920 0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 Source World Bank World Development Indicators Switzerland US Iapan Mexico World Russia B otswana Brazil China Egypt India Nigeria GNI Per Capital 2007 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 I PPP Adjusted US as I us 70000 Source World Bank World Development Indicators Per Capita GDP Does Not Account for Leisure GDP Per GDP Per Avg Labor force Unemploy Hour Capita hours participation ment rate Worked of worked rate of US US per worker Canada 77 80 1751 782 72 France 101 73 1543 695 96 Germany 92 73 1440 727 99 Japan 70 74 1789 722 49 Korea 40 52 2394 660 36 Mexico 29 26 1848 628 31 Norway 129 102 1359 791 45 US 100 100 1731 754 56 Source OECD Productivity Database 2006 OECD Employment Outlook 2005 Data for 2004 Per Capita GDP Does Not Account for Income Distribution Percent Shares of Income Bottom 20 Middle 20 Top 20 Canada 70 170 404 France 72 172 402 India 89 160 433 Japan 106 176 357 Mexico 31 117 591 Nigeria 44 125 557 US 59 157 458 Source World Bank 2005 World Development Indicators Per Capita GDP Does Not Measure the Quality of Life quotToo much and too long we seem to have surrendered community excellence and community values in the mere accumulation of material things Our gross national product if we should judge America by that counts air pollution and cigarette advertising and ambulances to clear our highways of carnage It counts special locks for our doors and the jails for those who break them It counts the destruction of our redwoods and the loss of our natural wonder in chaotic sprawl It counts napalm and the cost of a nuclear warhead and armored cars for police who fight riots in our streets It counts Whitman39s ri e and Speck39s knife and the television programs which glorify Violence in order to sell toys to our children quotYet the gross national product does not allow for the health of our children the quality oftheir education or the joy oftheir play It does not include the beauty of our poetry or the strength of our marriages the intelligence of our public debate or the integrity of our public officials It measures neither our wit nor our courage neither our wisdom nor our learning neither our compassion nor our devotion to our country it measures everything in short except that which makes life worthwhile And it tells us everything about America except why we are proud that we are Americans Robert F Kennedy March 1968 Income and Happiness quotSubjective wellbeing Over time Across individuals Menu Haw amp and Red 1131 Per Cupilu Imm 1975 and 1997 for Rl llkh l d Mm appmess and Rm Houeholtl Income m a kossSeclion of Americans CrowScciions ol39 um39rumn Americans in 1994 Mm lmppmuss in mm pen mpln 3km mppmes 5 mm go on mm Au can 50me mm mu 1 mu 1W5 mi nomnam mm per nplm um 3W 1min IUKL39L IL39L huw wmdd my mv mm m um mu mm w my in Wu m V Ir Sunni Sunnr T k n x h 39 I I s g m m m mm a m mu m M quotmm m B n is m 7 L5 V H nm 39 Source Rafael d1 F rman quot ww r2006 UN Human Development Index HDI Combines measures of Health life expectancy Knowledge literacy and school enrollment Standard of Living PPPadjusted per capita GDP HDI ranking 2006 005 QF b P PJT Iceland Norway Canada Australia Ireland Netherlands Sweden Japan Luxembourg Switzerland France Finland Denmark Austria United States High Human Development 175 US 15 Germany 23 South Korea 25 Poland 39 Brazil 70 Russia 73 Medium Human Development 76153 Turkey 76 China 94 Indonesia 109 Egypt 116 South Africa 125 India 132 Low Human Development 154 179 Nigeria 154 Ethiopia 169 Congo 177 Sierra Leone 179 The Balance of Payments Eco 344 International Economic Relations Professor Bill Craighead Trade Balances of Selected Countries 2007 Us billion of GDP Exports Imports NX Brazil 181 bn 14 159 bn 12 22 bn 2 Canada 498 bn 35 469 bn 33 39 bn 2 China 1403 bn 41 1064 bn 31 339 bn 10 Germany 1550 bn 47 1317 bn 40 233 bn 7 Mexico 291 bn 33 307 bn 34 16 bn 1 Nigeria 79 bn 46 38 bn 22 41 bn 24 Turkey 139 bn 36 174 bn 36 35 bn 8 UK 714 bn 26 815 bn 29 101 bn 3 US 1643 bn 12 2351 bn 17 708 bn 5 Source UN tatistics Division US Balance of Payments 2008 Current Account Net Exports 68l bn Merchandise Exports 1291 bn Merchandise Imports 2112 bn Services Exports 544 bn Services Imports 405 bn Income Payments 127 bn Income Payments Received 755 bn Income Payments Made 628 bn Net Unilateral Transfers 1 19 bn US Government Foreign Aid etc 42 bn Private Remittances etc 77 bn Current Account 673 bn Source BEA preliminary estimate Numbers may not add due to rounding US Balance of Payments 2008 Capital and Financial Account Financial In ows Increase in Foreign Offlcial Assets in US Foreign Direct Investment FDI in US Increase in Other Foreign Assets in US Securities Bank Liabilities etc Financial Out ows Increase in US Official Foreign Assets US FDI Abroad Increase in Other US Private Foreign Assets Securities Bank Liabilities etc Capital Account Capital and Financial Account Statistical Discrepancy 129 bn CA KFA Discrepancy O Source BEA preliminary estimate Numbers may not add due to rounding 599 bn 421 bn 325 bn 148 bn 52 bn 534 bn 318 bn 799 bn 3 bn 544 bn Bilateral Merchandise Trade 2008 in Billions of US Trade with 10 Largest Trading Partners Exports Imports NX Canada 2614 3356 742 China 715 3378 2663 Mexico 1515 2159 644 Japan 666 1392 726 Germany 547 976 429 UK 538 586 48 S Korea 348 481 133 France 292 440 148 Saudi Arabia 125 548 423 Venezuela 126 514 388 Source US Census Bureau Foreign Trade Statistics ExportsGDP ImportsGDP m Percent of GDP b lrl moN US Exports and Imports Twin De cits Ceterz s Paribus other things constant Increase in Government Budget De cit T GJ Net National Saving J NS S T G KFA J KFJiA 1 NS CA J CAKFA 0 NX J Trade Balance is main part of CA Budget De cit a Trade De cit Twin Deficits PchLntoFGDP Li L in 1 C L L o b l N w mnmam D0DII CDG O DG HHHHH mhmw mmhm mmhm nmmwwwwwo mmoc mammmmomocxoxoa Hi OI I i Hv HHi I i H 2007 Trade Balance 39 39 39 39 Gov39t Budget Balance Ceteris is not always paribus eg 1990 s US investment boom current increase in domestic saving Current Account De cit U Capital and Financial Account Surplus Foreigners Ownership of US Assets Increases Percent of GDP US International Investment Position o so 0 1 er 0 w o N ltr o no 0 I no no no no no 0 m an ch an o m m cu 0 0 cu m 9 m o ch ch o H H H H w 4 H H w H H H H N 2002 2004 2006 39 39 39 39 US Foreign Assets Abroad ForeignrOwned US Assets YearEnd 2008 US Holdings of Foreign Assets 176 billion Foreign Holdings of US Assets 201 billion The Current Account and Net Investment Position Percent of GDP 0 no 0 N ltr o w a N lt w co 0 N lt o Ix Ix as as a no no a m m m m o o o e an m m an ex an ex en c c an ex 0 o o o H H H H H H H H H H H H N N N N Current Account 39 quot 39 39 Net Foreign Assets Net Foreign Assets USowned Assets Abroad Foreignowned US Assets Changes in Net Investment Position Do Exactly Follow the Current Account 0 Differences in Returns 0 Changes in Value of Assets Sovereign Wealth Funds An increasing portion of international asset holdings are owned by governments sovereigns and stateowned corporations eg Abu Dhabi Investment Authority ADIA China Investment Corporation CIC Temasek Holdings Singapore government Inside the KFA Surplus Net Financial In ow Foreign Holdings of US Treasury Securities 3 Billion 2005 2006 2007 Total 19844 21262 24321 Japan 6591 6364 6068 China 3271 4452 4798 UK 809 136 1575 Brazil 289 530 1345 OPEC Asia 695 1015 1189 Source BEA Survey of Current Business July 2008 Foreign Holdings of US Corporate and Agency Bonds 33 Billion 2005 2006 2007 Total 22431 28249 32993 UK 4828 5934 7674 Bel and LuX 5427 6483 7203 Cayman Is 2289 3537 43 18 Japan 2412 2533 2885 Ireland 698 1208 1603 Source BEA Survey of Current Business July 2008 Foreign Holdings of US Corporate Stock 33 Billion 2005 2006 2007 Total 21099 25475 28331 UK 2914 3778 4445 Canada 2536 3184 3488 Cayman Is 1648 2208 2727 Bel and LuX 1919 2435 2466 Japan 1876 2133 2139 Source BEA Survey of Current Business July 2008 US Holdings of Foreign Stock 33 Billion 2005 2006 2007 Total 33177 43290 51706 UK 5445 6891 7970 Japan 4933 5435 5180 Canada 2478 2981 3935 France 2051 3069 3505 Germany 1580 2204 3063 Source BEA Survey of Current Busirress1u1y 2008 US Holdings of Foreign Bonds 95 Billion 2005 2006 2007 Total 10116 12755 14781 UK 1939 2561 3404 Cayman Is 1184 1779 2248 Canada 1575 1621 1705 Bel and Lux 335 428 1041 Netherlands 518 679 708 Source BEA Survey of Current Business July 2008 Exchange Rate Regimes Eco 344 International Economic Relations Professor Bill Craighead Medieval money precious metals specie Carrying gold and silver cumbersome dangerous Banks evolve as places to keep gold and silver Banks issue notes redeemable for specie which circulate as currency Countries define their monetary units in terms of precious metals e g British Pound 113 grains of gold US Dollar 2475 grains of gold or 37125 grains of silver 1 grain 00648 grams Early 19th Century Mixture of Gold Britain Silver Germany Russia China Bimetallic US France standards During crises countries suspend convertibility of currency into specie and issue paper money eg Britain suspended during Napoleonic Wars US during Civil War US Civil War paper money Greenbacks US Price Level 18591878 100 US Price Level Jan 1859 US resumes Gold convertibility in 1879 silver omitted from law World Gold Standard emerges in 187 0 s since currencies are de ned in terms of xed quantities of gold exchange rates are fixed network effect 1879 1913 Classical Gold Standard period peak of world economic integration large ows of trade investment and people Adjustment of imbalances under specie standards Price Specie Flow mechanism David Hume Trade Surplus gt Gold In ow gt Increase in M money Increase in M gt In ation increase in price of domestic goods Higher price of domestic goods gt Exports fall Imports rise gt Trade imbalances are selfcorrecting US Price Level Ian1882 100 gt gt Ula mwOD t oooooooo US Price Level 18821913 IfAMlt AY n lt 0 Under Gold Standard Quantity of Money depends on Gold Supply Late 19th century de ation gt High real interest rates gt Redistribution of wealth from debtors farmers to creditors eastern bankers There are two ideas of government There are those who believe that ifyou just legislate to make the welltodo osperous that their prosperity will leak through on those low The Democratic idea has been that ifyou legislate to make e masses prosperous their prosperity will find its way up and rough every class that rests upon it u come to us and tell us that the great cities are in favor of the 1d standard I tell you that the great cities rest upon these oad and fertile prairies Burn down your cities and leave our quot rms and your cities will spring up again as if by magic But stroy our farms and the grass will grow in the streets of every tyin the country they dare to come out in the open field and defend the gold itquot andard as a good thing we shall fight them to the uttermost having behind us the producing masses of the nation and the orld Having behind us the commercial interests and the aboring interests and all the toiling masses we shall answer their demands for a gold standard by saying to them you shall not press down upon the brow oflabor this crown of thorns You shall not crucify mankind upon a cross ofgoldquot William Jennings Bryan address to 1896 Democratic Convention Outbreak of First World War in 1914 leads to abandonment of Gold Standard Postwar Attempt to restore Gold Standard Britain resumes gold convertibility at prewar parity in 1925 ie 486 per pound gt raising value of pound requires painful de ation France resumes gold convertibility at a lower undervalued rate gt France accumulates gold reserves Treaty of Versailles requires large reparations payments from Germany to allies NXIPUTKFAO Germany requires large trade surplus andor nancial in ow international borrowing to finance reparations UT Allies need payments from Germany to repay loans from US Keynes Economic Consequences of the Peace burden of Versailles treaty would prevent German economy from recovering GeImany ms the printing press to cover budget de cit gt hyperin ation 1923 DevaluationAbandonment of Gold Standard 1929 Argentina 1930 Chile Australia 1931 Britain Norway Sweeden 1933 US 1935 Belgium 1936 France Netherlands Currency devaluations have beggarthyneighbor effect reduce price of devaluing country s goods relative to others which put pressure on others to devalue Recoveries from depression begin after leaving gold standard 1944 Bretton Woods Conference Conference agrees to establish ITO International Trade Organization never rati ed IBRD International Bank for Reconstruction and Development World Bank IMF International Monetary Fund Bretton Woods system of xed exchange rates Fixed but adjustable pegs to US Foreign governments can convert to gold at 3 5oz Late 1960 s speculative pressure on the Dollar President Nixon closes the gold Window suspends convertibility in August 1971 Exchange rate volatility in the modern oating rate era US West Germany Exchagne Rate 19681990 4500 4000 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 1000 DM per Early 1980 s Combination of tight monetary policy expansionary scal policy leads to strong Dollar 1985 Plaza Accord G7 Finance Ministers agree on coordinated exchange rate market intervention do bring down value of Dollar European Monetary Union 1979 European Monetary System EMS system of mutually pegged exchange rates among France Germany Italy Belgium Denmark Ireland Luxembourg and Netherlands currencies allowed to uctuate Within target zones Spain joins 1989 Britain 1990 Portugal 1992 1992 Britain Italy forced to leave by speculative attacks 1999 Establishment of Euro Antidumping Countervailing Duties and Safeguards Eco 344 International Economic Relations Professor Bill Craighead Countervailing Duties CVDs If a country subsidizes exports WTO rules allow trading partners to impose CVDs tariffs to counteract the effect of subsidy US Procedure 39 Commerce Department determines if subsidy exists International Trade Commission ITC determines Whether domestic industry is harmed 39 If both tests are passed CVDs can be applied Safeguard Tariffs WTO rules allow countries to impose temporary tariffs to protect domestic industries from sudden increases in imports US Procedure ITC investigates and makes policy recommendation to President Section 201 of the Trade Act of 1974 the escape clause Antidumping ITC Dumping occurs when a foreign producer sells a product in the United States at a price that is below that producer39s sales price in its home market or at a price that is lower than its cost of production US Procedure 39 Commerce Department determines whether dumping has occurred 39 ITC determines whether domestic industry is harmed 39 Commerce Department calculates dumping margin the difference between the US price and o Exporter s domestic price 0 Estimated cost Tariff equal to the dumping margin is imposed Byrd Amendment 2000 Companies initiating antidumping actions receive tariff revenue WTO ruled illegal and authorized sanctions against US Repealed in 2005 Zeroing In calculating dumping margins US treats goods with negative margins as zero eg Price in EU Price in US Model A 10 12 Model B 10 8 Total 1 no zeroing 20 20 Total 2 with zeroing 20 18 source EU Ruled illegal by WTO Difference 2 2 0 2 Regional Trade Agreements Eco 344 International Economic Relations Professor Bill Craighead Taxonomy of RTAs in increasing order of integration Preferential Trading Agreement Lower barriers to trade Within group Free Trade Area Eliminate barriers to trade Within group Customs Union Eliminate barriers to trade Within group and establish common external tariff Common Market Customs union With ee movement of labor and capital among members Economic Union Common market With broader economic policy coordination Rules of Origin ROOs Classify Whether goods originate Within group to prevent transshipment importing from outside group through country with lowest external tariff RTAs Violate GATTWTO principle of nondiscrimination MFN GATT allows exception for RTAs if Tariffs Within group reduced to zero eventually 39 Timetable for achieving free trade Within group 39 Does not increase protection against rest of world Preferential tariff reductions may result in decreased economic efficiency due to trade diversion Jagdish Bhagwati Spaghetti Bowl In reality FTAs have created yet further problems by having many different rules of origin varying by products as in NAFTA for instance and by FTAs when say the EU has FTAs with different rules with several different nonEU countries Indeed by making possible manipulation of rules of origin PTA countries are open to protectionist capture The problems inherently posed by PTAs in regard to the rules of origin that they require are yet further compounded since FTAs are on different schedules of tariff cutting by sector and are not synchronized having been negotiated at different at different points of time and with different schedules for reaching zero tariff outcomes so that we typically find a large and chaotic set of applicable tariffs on the same good depending on which source the good is assigned to The result is the spaghetti bowl phenomenon of numerous and crisscrossing PTAs and innumerable applicable tariff rates depending on arbitrarilydetermined and often a multiplicity of sources of origin In short the systemic effect is to generate a world of preferences with all its wellknown consequences which increases transaction costs and facilitates protectionism In the guise of freeing trade PTAs have managed to recreate the preferencesridden world of the 193 Os as surely as protectionism did at the time Irony Indeed Bhagwati Greenaway and Panagariya Trading Preferentially Theory and Policy Economic Journal July 1998 RTAs may hinder multilateral trade negotiations because of concern about preference erosion ie multilateral liberalization reduces the value of the special treatment of RTA members Richard Baldwin Spaghetti Bowls are Building Blocs on the Path to Global Free Trade Political economy of Trade Negotiations multilateral or regional Reciprocity solves the political economy extemality the government knows free trade is better but it cannot get political support for unilateral tariff reductions With reciprocal negotiations exporting industries become advocates of reducing domestic tariffs Juggernaut effect Liberalization leads to growth of exporting firms which support freer trade and shrinkage of importcompeting firms which oppose it RTAs Domino Effect raises the cost of being outside the agreement because non members face greater discrimination If a nonmember joins this raises the cost of being outside for nonmembers Example 1957 6 countries form European Economic Community EEC forerunner of modern European Union Britain Ireland Norway Denmark apply to join Domino Effect Since the US cannot join it pushes for multilateral liberalization Kennedy round of GATT The dominoes start a juggernaut Regionalism and multilateralism are complements not substitutes Wilfred Ethier The New Regionalism Characteristics of RTAs 39 Between small developing countries and large developed countries hub and spoke Tariff reductions are small 39 Onesided small countries make larger concessions 39 Deep integration beyond tariffs o fewer participants 39 easier to reach agreement 39 can reach agreement on larger number of issues Motivation Competition for Foreign Direct Investment FDI Developing countries want to increase credibility of commitment to reform


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