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Date Created: 11/02/15
Gear in Teach Offshore Wind Resources in the Southeast Susan W Stewart PhD arch Engineer Georgia Tech Strategic Energy Initiative Alternative Energy Technology Innovation The Coming Economic Boom Workshop 51205 Wk i STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE rmiltrrwuuurm HtlerrUtJ Gear 3 39r 331 Introduction Feasibility study carried out on offshore wind energy potential in coastal Georgia Funded by NSF PFI grant In nitEnergy A Coastal Georgia Partnership for Innovation quot STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mimmxwuuux4 iixiimvimi Gear in Teach Misconceptions The world is flat The universe revolves around the earth Fossil fuels are renewable There is no wind in the Southeastern US STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE numbnwhllulinl iiiiinnimi Gear in Team Recent Studies Stanford 2003 The greatest previously uncharted reservoir of wind power in the continental United States is offshore and near shore along the southeastern and southern coastsquot J Geogh SicalReS 108 D9 4289 ACL 1071 10720 1 39439 39 STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE nummwuuuxmnummmi Current Study South Atlantic Bight 6 years of highly creditable wind data 50 m above ocean surface 512 snarlEsquot ENERGY mrrm39nvs numbnwululinl mnMvmm Gear in Teach SE Continental Shelf Up to 95 miles wide lt 50 m deep Conventional foundation technology Plenty of shallow water over horizon STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mummwsnunm minimum Wind Data Details 40 miles offshore 50m above ocean surface 27m water depth 6 Minute Interval Data from 61999 present Wind Speed 50m Min Max amp Deviation Wind Direction 50m Deviation Gear in Each Annual Wind Speed Distribution Year 2000 quotin Tune 13 15 i7 19 21 23 25 27 2a 31 Wlnd Speed In5 mummwumn m mmmum r i STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE G 1233 Preliminary Correlation of Data with Location Mnd Speed ms 1 17 a 15 E Dzymmmherznmi STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mmumwuuuuu mmnmm Gear in Teach Wind Classification System ms STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE nmmmwuuuuu ilKIinmm Georgia Data from 2000 m Sample Wind Turbine em Specifications 0 20 MW Hub height 80m Rotor Diam 90m Swept Area 6362 m2 0 36 MW Hub height 70m100m Rotor Diam 104m Swept Area 8495m2 3625 We 3527 We Nominal wind speed Nominal wind speed 115 ms 14ms T STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mummwuutn nu ilrllmvmm 1 Changes in Hub Height Logarithmic Law for adjustment to hub height 2 1n Z K0 1n l roughness length 1 00002 m open water STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mummwuuui m ilKItMvmm Wind Power Curves 32m 36MW 2EIMW KW mmmwuuuuu mmumm Gear in in Calculated kWhyear Capacity Factors 36 MW Turbine 274 20 MW Turbine 405 Iquot STRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE IU1 AI4ILHUI lllllemm Georgia European Wind Farms MW cont European Wind Farms 1 1 14 2003 Gear in in Construction Cost Estimates Georg a Estimated Cost of Energy Mquot 2m Veavsmumzauun Cus mm 1 E centskWh owm Pmdummn Tavaedm u mummy Cunvemmna Technu ugyFue Cum 0 e mskWh nu AWa BEI Em mm 12 MENa 15m Fmanma Dwscuum Rate numbnwulun m unan n Gaori he ZeroEmissions Benefits NOx SOX Emissions Trading Evaluation 1 centkWh TRATEGIC ENERGY INITIATIVE mummwuuuuu minimum Amunndlabmorynfuu usnepurlmem dEnergy Of ucfmmlencyl RenewabIaErmgy ME National Renewable Energy Laboratory Innovation for Our Energy Future Renewable Energy Strengthening Our Nation s Economy l w 39 12 I L 1quot 39 y r fdh Tquot Alternative Energy gt glogy39lnnovations The Coming Economic Boom May 1213 2005 r 3 A Savannah Georgia mi 2 r V w r 1 4 1 t 39 Dr Dan E Amzu Director National Renewable Energy Laboratory 1quot u 4 Emrgy ha mgs 5am EW WW M E 4 Env mmmgma Engrgy Sggw ty H Hmpac and Re ab ty National Predicament Very slow renewal of existing infrastructure geared to cheap fuel Cars 10 15 yrs Aircraft 20 30 rs Maintain security of Wind turbines 5 yrs Fuel supply Power plants 40yrs Trains 30 years Generating capaCIty Electrical distribution 40yrs Houses 70 years We have only today s technology for 2025 Energy needs will grow Source Lord Ron Oxburgh Royal Dutch Shell Qua quotmm mmh39 wgyubmw 982 Quadrillion Btu USE Ememgy F ewe Electricity 39 6200 Rejected Energy Technologybased Solutions There is no one silver bullet we need many Energy efficiency Renewable energy Nonpolluting transportation fuels Separation and capture of 002 from fossil fuels Next generation of nuclear fission and fusion technology Transition to smart resilient distributed energy systems coupled with pollutionfree energy carriers eg hydrogen and electricity l quotO IRE mu numbhmubomm Renewable Energy Will Play a Key Role in a More Diverse and Secure Energy Supply COE centskWh 1 0 8 6 4 2 0 1 Renewable Energy Costs are Decreasing Levelized centskWh in constant 20001 Wind 40 5 30 E E g 20 0 8 o 10 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 70 Geothermal 60 50 40 30 20 10 2020 100 80 60 40 20 0 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 15 Biomass 12 9 6 3 0 0 980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 Source NREL Energy Analysis Of ce WWWnrelgovanalysisdocscostcurves2002ppt 1These graphs are re ections of historical cost trends NOT precise annual historical data Updated October 2002 National Renewabh Energy Laborame Wind Energy Status Wind Capacity MW ashingto aine 244 3 I Dakota 39 Oregon 66 V i ampshire 2 Sou 0 Idaho Dakota A assac39il1usetts o2 Wyoming 44 1 285 39 New York Nebraska 4 20 Colorado 39 Pennsylvania 176 New Mexico 267 Californi 096 6770 MW as of 123104 Current cost is 4 to 6 lkWh in best regimes unsubsidized 3mm Nauanal Renewable Energy Labomw Solar Energy Status Concentrating Solar Power Nine parabolic trough plants 354 MW capacity 12 14 kWh Photovoltaics 340 MW capacity Price of power from g PV systems at the Arizona Public Service facility in connected Prescott Arizona systems is 20 to 30 kWh 2 C 1 lth National Renewable Energy Laboratory Biomass Status Biopower F J 39 Gridconnected capacity 9700 MW direct combustion 400 MW cofiring Biopower electricity prices generally range from 812 kWh Biofuels Biodiesel 15 million gallons 2002 Rated at 21 MW and providing the San Francisco Bay com ethanOI Area with baseload capacity the Tracy Biomass Plant 8 commercial plants uses wood residues discarded from agricultural and 39 d t39 l t39 34 bllllon gallons 2004 39 Sr39a pera39 s 122ga Cellulosic ethanol 273gal Not commercially available IONQE National Renewable Energy Laboratory Factors Inhibiting Pace and Volume of Renewable Energy Market Entrance Capital mobilization Lack of consistent stable policies Electricity pricing valuing externalities Further technology advances Mobilizing Capital Creative Business Partnership Models Catalyze entrepreneurs Enhance strategic partnering Attract new corporate entrants Invigorate private equityventure capital State Policies are Opening Markets for Renewable Energy Renewable Electricity Standards Nevada 15 b 2013 solar 5 of gnnyual Minnesota 19 by 2015 Net Y rk Maine3o 24 o by 2013 by 2000 Wisconsin Iowa 2 by 1999 22 by 2011 I h MA 4 by 2009 RI 16 by 2019 CT 10 by 2010 NJ 65 by 2008 Maryland 75 by 2019 11 by 2022 Pennsylvania 8 by 2020 California 20 by 2017 Arizona 11 by 2007 60 solar New Mexico 10 by 2011 1 Colorado 10 by 2015 I Hawaii 20 by 2020 Includes requirements adopted in 1994 and 2003 for one utility Xcel Energy o nm quot3Wquot mw39b eine39gvlahmw39v 18 States DC Western Governors Association Clean and Diversified Energy Initiative Western US is rich with fossil hydro and renewable energy resources Goal of 30000 MW of clean energy by 2015 using solar wind geothermal biomass clean coal technologies and advanced natural gas technologies Goal to increase the efficiency of energy use by 20 by 2020 Meet the West s generation and transmission needs over the next 25 years VLIRE39 National Renewable Energy Laboratory Create an Electricity Pricing Structure that Values Externalities Intangibles have value Greater value if dealt with in resource planning Allow a broader perspective Hard to quantify Has been controversial No accepted methodology The Future for Renewable Energy A Technology Outlook Wind Solar Biomass Wind Outlook Technology DOE Wind Program RampD goals Wind Resource 3 kWh in class 4 wind areas onshore 5 kWh for offshore systems New Technology will Expand range of feasible sites Reduce siting risk Enhance system value Policy State led RPS Production Tax Credit Market Drivers Natural gas prices Green purchasmg unsubsidized SOURd National Renewableamgy Lahomory Solar Outlook Technology DOE Solar Program goals Photovoltaics 6 lkWh by 2020 Concentrating solar powertroughs 5 KWh by 2012 Policy 1000 MW initiative Western Governors Association 30000 MW by 2020 initiative State RPS with solar set asides Market Drivers Peak power prices Green markets Solar Resource 2mm National Renewable Energy Laboratory Biomass Outlook Technology DOE Biomass Program goals 55 kWh by 2010 1 07gal bioethanol by 2020 Policy Housepassed energy bill will create a renewable fuels standard that reaches 5 billion gallonsyear by 2012 Market Drivers Future outlook for crude oil pnces Best utilization for biomass fuels or electricity BiomassResoume l a National Renewable Energy Laboratory A Future Vision for Wind Energy Markets Tomorrow Land Based Electricity Path Transmission Today Barriers Turbines 2005 Land Based LWST 3 kWh at 13mph LargeScale Electricity Market 2 5 MW 2012 Bulk Power Generator Cost amp Regulatory 46 at 15mph Offshore Electricity Path Barriers Offshore LWST Turbine 5 centskWh ShallowDeep water Electricity Market Higher wind Sites Wind Farms 2012 and Beyond Offshore Turbines 5 MW and Larger Land Based Bulk Electricity Cost amp Infrastructure Barriers Advanced Applications Path Custom Turbines Electricity H2 production Desalinate water Storage MultiMarket 2030 and Beyond IONQE National Renewable Energy Laboratory Future Potential 20 of Electricity Market Land or Sea Based Hydrogen Clean Water Future Technology Directions Research on crystalline silicon thin 663 30 films and balanceof 8 R admap case systems components Higherrisk longer term RampD for all system components that can leapfrog beyond today s technology Partnerships among industry universities and national laboratories 25 55 GW 0 Baseline Case 39 50 3905 3910 H v 15 3920 3925 Comparison of annual US solar power shipments under the Baseline and Roadmap cases Shipments in 2030 and 2050 are 24 and 55 GW for the Baseline case and 19 and 31 GW for the Roadmap case AWN Nltiunl Kenwoble Energy Laboratory Emerging Biorefineries Existing Biorefineries Advanced Bioreiineries Biomass The Biorefinery The Path Ahead A diverse feedstock supply that provides over1 billion tons of biomass peryear Equivalent of 35 billion barrels of crude oil per year or 55 of current US petroleum demand QUIE Mml mam Laboratory Technologies High technology Mass production Markets Conventional energy prices Green markets Policies Incentives amp mandates v90 3 3NL National Renewable Energy Laboratory