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## Lecture 4

by: Nathaniel Bautz

80

0

6

# Lecture 4 CEE 270

Nathaniel Bautz
UMass
GPA 2.9
System Analysis and Economic Civil Engineering
Bernd Schliemann

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Due to a snow day, lecture 3 was missed. Here are the lecture 4 notes.
COURSE
System Analysis and Economic Civil Engineering
PROF.
Bernd Schliemann
TYPE
Class Notes
PAGES
6
WORDS
KARMA
25 ?

## Popular in Civil and Environmental Engineering

This 6 page Class Notes was uploaded by Nathaniel Bautz on Thursday January 29, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to CEE 270 at University of Massachusetts taught by Bernd Schliemann in Spring2015. Since its upload, it has received 80 views. For similar materials see System Analysis and Economic Civil Engineering in Civil and Environmental Engineering at University of Massachusetts.

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Date Created: 01/29/15
LECTURE 4 393 Law of Total Probability Let A11 3 be mutually exclusive and exheuetive eeente Then fr any etlher event B r213 Prem pwg mega grew a Dr etherwiiee rkeeteted gt h i1 393 Bayes Theorem Let A AI be a eel lleetiri rrf39rrrL 1re1Irr exellwueiee reaheuetiee eeente where 15 U fer i1 llt then fer any ether event fer which Pm m 1 P Bu Pm 1 ferrj21k gt gt Bayes Theorem indicates how probabilities change in the light of evidence gt It is one of the most important tools in statistics 393 Problem gt A company that manufactures soil testing equipment produces a basic kit and a deluxe kit Over the past year 40 of the kits sold have been the basic model Of those buying the basic model 30 purchase an extended warranty Whereas 50 of all deluxe model purchasers do so If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty how likely is it that she has a basic model LECTURE 4 393 Law of Total Probability Let A11 3 be mutually exclusive and exheuetive eeente Then fr any etlher event B r213 Prem pwg mega grew a Dr etherwiiee rkeeteted gt h i1 393 Bayes Theorem Let A AI be a eel lleetiri rrf39rrrL 1re1Irr exellwueiee reaheuetiee eeente where 15 U fer i1 llt then fer any ether event fer which Pm m 1 P Bu Pm 1 ferrj21k gt gt Bayes Theorem indicates how probabilities change in the light of evidence gt It is one of the most important tools in statistics 393 Problem gt A company that manufactures soil testing equipment produces a basic kit and a deluxe kit Over the past year 40 of the kits sold have been the basic model Of those buying the basic model 30 purchase an extended warranty Whereas 50 of all deluxe model purchasers do so If you learn that a randomly selected purchaser has an extended warranty how likely is it that she has a basic model

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