Week 2: Who Elected Obama?
Popular in Racial and Ethnic Politics in the Obama Era
Popular in Department
This 3 page Class Notes was uploaded by Jennifer Kim on Saturday December 12, 2015. The Class Notes belongs to GVPT289O at a university taught by Dr. Antoine Banks in Fall 2015. Since its upload, it has received 228 views.
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Date Created: 12/12/15
GVPT2890 91015 Lecture 2 Who Elected Obama Reading Notes Race effect stronger among whites than among blacks white voters outnumber black voters gt race cost Obama votes Votes can be lost by either turnout or by choice Black turnout and electoral votes increased in 2008 due to Obama campaign Mobilized turnout Conditions extremely favorable for Dem victory Racial resentment huge factor in white voting from 1988 to 2008 By virtue of his race Obama gained votes among African Americans 22 and lost votes among white americans 102 o Lost more than he gained Economy and security two major factors in voting Incumbent running for reelection gt voters hold incumbent accountable for economic conditions Incumbent not running for reelection gt electoral consequence of economic conditions diminishes Presidential elections about performance not policy Obama received less of votes than models predicted Difference is most likely due to race Should ve won by a landslide Obama would not have been elected at all had the conditions then been so unfavorable War depression public hated Bush Republican Class Notes Obama popular among young voters Reached out thru social media Did significantly better than last four Democratic presidential candidates Race benefited Obama and didn t hurt him Won more of the white and latino votes than the two previous Democratic presidential candidates Won more black and asian votes than last three candidates No evidence of Bradley effect in 2008 Kinder reading Obama should ve won by a landslide Had the Democratic nominee been white they would ve won by 60 o Turnout and choice two factors affecting outcome Did Obama experience a racial penalty Forecast Model 1 of votes won by his race among AA and votes lost by WA Black vote 981000 in 2004 1241000 in 2008 Benefitted him 26 percentage points No difference in bw turnout except 2008 White vote lost 102 votes from whites Cost him 102 percentage points Racial bias hurts candidates Obama activated whites negative racial attitudes Racial resentment had a bigger effect in 2008 than previous elections In total lost about 8 percentage points cuz of race Forecast Model 2 Based on incumbent s performance Rated positively gt voters likely to keep incumbent party in power Viewed poorly gt voters will vote party out of power Voters care about economy and security the most Bad economy majority of public against Iraq War gt model predicts Dem candidate should ve won btwn 5759 of vote GVPT2890 91015 Obama lost about 5 percentage points because of his race Dems should ve won by landslide Obama s race cost him 58 percentage points Bush had approval rating similar to Nixon on day of his resignation Economy was tanking Majority of US thought war in Iraq was a mistake GVPT2890 9815 Page 1 of 1 Lecture 1 Process of Electing the President Indirect election Voters choose among slate of electors Electors pledge to support their own party s candidates Slate of electors that wins casts all the state s electoral votes for its party s candidate Electoral college presidential electors from each state who meet in their respective state capitals after the pop election to cast ballots for president 538 votes total 438 House of Reps 100 Senators For fifty states Determine of electoral votes based on of reps and senators Electoral college created because there was a concern that avg citizens weren t informed enough MD has 10 electoral votes 8 reps 2 senators 2008 Electoral Votes 270 electoral votes needed to win presidency Obama won 365 electoral votes McCain won 135 votes 2008 Democratic Primaries Clinton initially seen as frontrunner 10 Dem candidates running for presidency Biden Clinton Dodd Edwards Gravel Obama Rep Kucinich Gov Richardson After several debates Dem nomination btw Senator Clinton and Sen Obama Obama won because Against Iraq invasion Obama won Iowa majority white state Won 1322 states on Super Tuesday According to McClarina and Stewart race played a role in Dem primaries Race helped Obama Got black and asian 2008 Presidential Election Based on exit polls Obama had large lead over McCain Bradley Effect
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