National and International Policy Unit Notes
National and International Policy Unit Notes V160
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Date Created: 02/02/15
Unit 4 04112013 Not really advocating for anything thinks it39s unlikely get rid of guns will not cause crime to disappear will still have higher crime rate in US than European countries Things about crime are not as simple as you might think people make a lot of unwise assumptions about crime lots of white collar crime unemployment itself might not be the cause behind higher crime rates in US than Europe because in 19605 when there was low unemployment crime shot up but in the 193039s when there was high unemployment crime rates stayed about the same decentralization and public opinion in uences eliteslaw enforcement Crime rates have moved in directions quite different from what one nds in Europe centralized 0 With national police forces and government ministries that oversee law enforcement 0 While great Britain has only 52 police departments the US has at least seventeen thousand and maybe more 0 Britain has a national police college where it trains almost all of the highlevel officials o In America every city county and state has its own police department every county and many cities have their own elected district or city attorney FBI and the DEA 0 However because of their small number of employees they investigate only a fraction of all crimes and arrest only a minor part of suspects 0 Local police departments work well together and the FBI and local authorities share info quite readily Criminal Justice and Public Opinion 0 Because of decentralized system public opinion closely watches and deeply in uences law enforcement l makes US C system exceptional pub op in uences elite op 0 Police chiefs are selected by mayors you must run for reelection 0 District attorneys are selected by voters 0 State prison systems must be designed and paid for by elected governors o In many states voters vote on policy directly through initiative and referenda measures 0 Europeans thing the close link between law enforcement policy and politics is a problem O gettough Between 1980 and 1985 the prison population increased by more than half and in the next ve years after it increased by half again a During this time British prison population decreased getso Passed an Act that discouraged judges from sending offenders to prison unless the crime was very serious However by 1996 England had a higher property crime rate than the US a As a result England got tougher D But then they got soft again Chances of going to prison were much higher in the US 0 In this country scholarly opinion is that prison sentences do reduce crime 0 Studies back this up 0 There has been a bit of a drop in crime in America 0 Other factors 0 O there are fewer young males in the population and fewer drug users Crime rates affected with the frequency with which drug users are recruited New users often steal to pay for their drugs and dealers often shoot one another to maintain control of their territories and keep contracts cant go to police or law because illegal market make greater efforts to resist crime by locking their homes and cars installing alarms and avoiding tough neighborhoods People also arm themselves and discourage crime by brandishing or using a weapon most property crimes than do many democratic nations Murder However murder 0 For the last 200 years murder rates in New York City have ten fteen times higher than that in London 0 Lists feature of American history to explain Built on a frontier where human settlement often occurred before any local governments could control violence When slaves were emancipated many police choose to ignore black on black crime but take black on white crime very seriously Scholars believe there is a connection between income inequality and crime rates especially homicide n Education family structure or the presence or absence of gangs that makes the difference 6 to 8 times higher 0 Even if they had the same rates as whites our rates would still be very high compared to other nations n Perhaps it produces social strain or a sense of despair or anger among the poor who respond by stealing and assaulting a Another theory is that when people become richer they become more attractive targets for crime 0 However sorting out these statistics is hard because of all these different factors Homicide rates have come down sharply in the past two decades though 0 However the fall hasn t been steady and it is unlikely to continue inde nitely In early 905 newly created crack fueled homicide rates to a sharp increase D However began to decrease after many of the new recruits died or got sick or went to prison the market stabilized O quotis how to makekeep crime rates lowquot Controlling Crime Deterrence Deterrence does work imprisonmentdeath penalty Controlling Crime Rehabilitation 0 We try to change criminals into lawabiding persons 0 Fail a lot 0 In 605 when crime rose we focused less on rehabilitation claiming it quotcoddled criminalsquot But after the 905 when crime went down we started rehabilitating more 0 When studying Rehabilitation it is important to o Randomly assign 0 Ensure rehabilitative efforts were made 0 Follow up 0 In 505 and 605 scholars believed rehabilitation worked 0 But studies in the 70s suggests that most rehabilitative efforts don t work 0 However studies in the 805 and 905 included metaanalysis which combines the results of many studies into an overall estimate produced some kind of hope Found that on average people in rehabilitative programs committed 10 percent fewer crimes than those who weren t o Tailored rehabilitation programs tend to work better However the public enthusiasm often endorses programs the we know don t work like quotscared straightquot Controlling Crime Prevention 0 We don t know if prevention programs work until the participants are much older 0 And the second is targeting O Finding youth who will commit crimes later is hard these programs treat millions but many of them will never commit a crime anyway Many programs do succeed big brothers big sisters But the problem is making these programs available to many at risk children Controlling Crime Guns 0 Guns clearly affect death rate 0 If all private guns would disappear murder rates would go down removing all guns right to own a gun Gun ownership and murder rates do not correlate though If they did North Dakota lots of guns would have a higher murder rate than Washington DC little guns Although we are a more violent country than Europe letting people carry concealed guns is not the reason The key problem is how we can reduce the extent to which guns are used Federal law already prohibits convicted felons illegal aliens drug addicts mental patients and people guilty of domestic violence from owning guns In order to control access to guns even further one must control the illegal market The illegal gun market is much more decentralized and small scale than the illegal drug market This makes it very expensive to round up many weapons this way make people not WANT to carry a gun for fear of punishment rather than not allowing them to ownhave one Can increase criminal penalties imposed on people who while committing a crime display or use a weapon Can take guns out of the hands of people not authorized to own them by conducting more intensive street searches of people who are on parole probation or otherwise meet legal tests that determine who may or may not be searched And we can invest in technology that will enable the police to determine from a distance who is carrying a concealed weapon Police can monitor homes and bars where violence has been reported in order to make carrying weapons in and out of these places more risky Controlling Crime Dangerous Drugs cut crime rates at least violence but property crimes would probably increase because of the heavy in ux of new users 0 Emphasis on supply reduction has little effect 0 One is to make the lives of drug users safer by supplying them with clean needles and protected places in which to ingest drugs the other is to reduce demand by some combination of education and sanctions treatment programs Treatment programs require not only programs in prisons but also ones for when they are back on the street Kleiman suggests that probationers and parolees be frequently tested for drugs each time they fail they would be incrementally punished I Would require more than one drug test a week and quick administrative impositions of sanctions n Tested this method in Hawaii with program HOPE Hawaii s opportunity probation with enforcement Drug offenses went down among those participating in program Controlling Crime Unemployment 0 At times when there has been high unemployment like in the 19305 the crime rate didn39t change much or even decreased but in times of low unemployment like the 19605 the crime rate shot up 0 MESURING CRIME DATA IS IMPERFECT 0 Factors like family structure and unemployment do play some role in crime rates 0 Improving participation in the labor force is a much more dif cult task than simply nding jobs for people 0 Programs designed to provide underprivileged youth with jobs at best had mixed results Problems are no longerjust economic but social and therefore require solutions that deal with problems such as alcoholism lack of family cohesion welfare dependency and social capital Crime and Justice do justice 0 There is a question of whether a black who murders a white victim is treated more harshly than a black who kills a black victim 0 Evidence both for and against this Decentralization still produces a criminal justice system that closely tracks public opinion 0 We live in a nation in which crime rates differ sharply across cities and countries and in which the level of public and government toleration of crime varies with local political and cultural arrangements Class notes 0 What s his attitude towards crime 0 not sure about accuracy of data 0 it will never be 100 solved there will always be some crime 0 what makes America exceptional o decentralized 0 public opinion deeply in uences policy 0 Elite opinion actually follows public opinion much like dyes chapter on civil rights 0 Uses statistics to say that we don t know property crime 0 Dtherapeutic policy More lenient Trying to help rehabilitate criminals 0 American populous typically want to focus on punishment less than rehabilitation 0 Liberals 0 American crime policy got tough in the 705 o Caused by raised crime rates Change crime by voting for the policy makers American property crime has gone down in Europe its going up Notion of gun control is kind of ridiculous to think its going to change because of the second amendment 0 In order to change this your going to have to have a constitutional conference where all states are together 0 Teacher believes that this could be possible that he may have been a bit premature in assuming it will never change Why do we have high rates of murder in the US 0 How the country was built Slavery and how we handled them Settlement Frontier o The notion to defend yourself and handle crime yourself may originate from early years of American life where there was no governance 0 Deterrence extremely tough sentencing so you do not even think about doing it Highest rates of incarceration in the world 0 Rehabilitation Some hope 0 Seems to suggest that legalizing drugs can decrease violent crimes but probably increase in property crime 0 History After emancipation of the slaves law enforcement did not take black on black crime seriously but if black committed a crime on a white person it was taken seriously 0 Today Seems to be more likely to get the death penalty even today 0 Death penalty doesn39t necessarily motivate criminals not to commit a crime 0 State has gotten really tough on crime necessary 0 International comparisons 0 Skeptical of rehabilitation rendering justice is moral death penalty eye for an eye and maybe more important than deterrence Criminal Justice DYE Crime in America o It is hard to determine the crime rate don t know about how much we have 0 Juvenile crime 16 17 18 year olds Not all people report crime fear of being hurt further Suspicious of police what will happen to me if I report I Blame the victim society Predators in big cities look for Asian and Asian American targets because they generally do not go to police 60570395 it doubled doubled again from 705 to 805 doubled again from 805 to 905 has been declining since pg 108 Peaked in 9039s now is declining Social heteroqeneitv values questioned in the 605 Miranda rights right to remain silent Not just economic problems or just gun roles in society cause of crime may contribute but what causes crime fundamentally we do not know 0 got away with it once may get away with it again older crime quotbossesquot or organizations may have juveniles do the work can use them for their bene t because both can get away with it but usually don39t Courts then decided that in cases of murder juvenile must be sent to the big court but may not be executed but only put away for life a Spike in juvenile crime a overwhelmed single mothers or grandmothers trying to deal with young men no father presence bad education environments some unsafe group housing surrogate family groups gangs o Gangs offer a degree of supportfamily huge problem though 0 Victimous crime prostitution slavery sex slaves drug cartels In many countries like Russia they beat suspects to get them to confess or say anything they know so they can take something to their superiors Organized crime and government together huge problem o Rational strategy to deter or prevent crime 0 0 Make the consequences so bad people don t even want to think about it make a big point heavily punish a criminal to make an example of them so other people are deterred Depends Some people are deterred some are not Good schools social stability good family active police force enhanced police powers but this could limit liberties and cause people not want to live there Criminals make calculations how to beat the system Crime is a way of life for some people don t know anything else Police and the Fed 0 Crime in America is decentralized not a very heavy central presence a Federal Bureau of Investigation I Department ofjustice n J Edgar Hoover Control freak very successful at raising the security of FBI in the 10th Amendment it is left to the state Interestingly federal government started taking an interest in crime FBI was created really exploded in 192039s because lots of organized crime with bootlegging illicit trade prohibition really federalized crime I Started moving on the drug trade in a heavy way other crime ghting a Drug Enforcement AgencyAdministration 0 Department ofjustice n Immigration and Customs Enforcement 0 Department of Homeland security n Alcohol Tobacco and Firearms 0 Department of Treasury focused on counterfeiting Most crime is dealt with at the state and local level a Highway patrol state police n Crossing state lines with drug selling and whatnot could be more of a federal issue In some countries may be executed for drug use a ExThaHand Guns and Drugs 0 Guns 0 Drugs Fed limited sawed off shotguns 30 s Federal govt has the right to limit or con scate guns and will enforce that it should There has been signi cant decline in drug use since the 196039s But now it is rising Said marijuana was not addictive but could be for certain people liberalizing marijuana laws will not necessarily lower crime rate says cocaine is used less than marijuana and is quotnot physically addictivequot strange because usually very addictive often addicted for life marijuanagateway to other drugs Drug dealers want cheap crack cocaine which is highly addictive to get market hooked and then can raise the price 0 Crime in the Courts 0 Situations in which we need the police victims but in other situations in which we don t really trust the police if on wrong side of police like get a speeding ticket more to ll their quota target than fairness Gay rights liberal rights Miranda rights under Warren Court a If police doesn39t read rights anything the criminal or suspect says as evidence against them can be thrown out Late 7039s felt Miranda rights went a little too far and successor of Warren tried to be more sympathetic to enhance police power against search and seizure must have a warrant cruel and unusual punishment right to assembly right to have a gun etc 0 Most Americans are very uncomfortable with too much police power o P son 0 Positive Quick useful Negative prosecutors will use this to save a lot of time undermines the system death penalty can be usedthreatened to get people to confess admit to it and take a lesser charge use the bargain to get a quicker chargeconfession 1 Locking people up for so long is very expensive a Huge prison populations 2 Author suggests rehabilitation of criminals hardly works 3 Some states like California corrupt prison systems people in prison control the prison run the show a Good prisons very traditional in Texas 0 Suggests being tough on crime is rational but having so many people in prison could be irrational because criminalizing a low level and keeping them in that 0 Capital Punishment F Although it is expensive and long American39s tend to see it in moral terms of quoteye for an eyequot Not about deterrence its about slapping down and sending a message to other people USTICE 0 Not every state has capital punishment New England doesn t have it TexasSouth really has it I Some places believe in the culture of cap punishment other places don t gone A black who kills a nonblack may be more in danger of capital punishment often execute and nd out innocent later rights are Should be used sparingly Theories you do the crime you will diebe heavily punished we have to have adequate institutions police the community can trust I Use little bit of both 0 We can have punishment Physical harm I lncapacitation take off the street and put in jail a Crime has gone down Does the policy create more problems O O incapacitation cleanse society of dangerous predators Many predators know they will be killed eventually but cant help themselves have to do it maybe too tough on crime 0 You commit the crime you will pay does it go too far 0 FBI ATF Department ofJustice DEA taken out of department of treasury l 0 Supreme Court pro rights of the accused Warren Court soft on criminals may lead to more crime probably is evidence of racial bias skeptical of incapacitation and rehabilitation O DEFENSE Elliot Cohen security 0 We practice deterrence in warfare same we practice it in crime ghUng 0 Supporting weaker side against the stronger in warfare 0 When we get into war we make other side pay so we don t have to do it again We don t want war to come to American soil ght it overseas America is not in the path of warfare 0 Elliot Cohen He went to Harvard He is an Orthodox Jew o Captures the idea that people in the military have LOTS of responsibility that makes you grow up fast closed culture often liberal professors generally don t understand military or business 0 Military 0 US spends top dollar on military and healthcare n We get value for money in the military best military in the world in healthcare and education spending we may not have the best quality in turn for spending 0 19705 draft problems 0 not the biggest but trains more They have a focus and have a train for it constantly Training is very dangerous so have to be very good at it could be killed no tolerance for incompetence Very competitive life and death 0 Global Reach US has different functionsrelationships o NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization 19505 founded 0 North Atlantic Treaty Organization 1950 s US pays most of NATO largest military of all the NATO countries Brussles US dominates it o careful relationship defend certain 0 countries like Japan and South Korea and Taiwan and China bilateral relationship Bilateral relationships in middle east as well 0 Hard to make decisions because decisions often take place on the ground often causes Hubds 0 Excessive pride put us in Iraq What we do with military 0 War on Terror Cohen says it includes way too many things which is problematic and expensive terrorism may strike us In US FBI deals with War on Terror overseas the military deals with War on Terror Bilateral relationsip with Taipei Taiwan amp Beijing China We have military in Taiwan to prevent China from taking it over because although unifying them may be good its hard to agree on terms because each Taiwan and china have their m US bargains because for Beijing it stops Taiwan from declaring independence because US is helping it but Taiwan wont do this so it has US military aid so China doesn t take it over Terrorists often use threats as leverage suicide bombs will kill oneself and take others down to help one s side 0 O O O O O 0 How do you deter against this problem Have things that normal American have re ection of best of American society healthy strong It is now a volunteer force as opposed to some countries who don t graduate and get drafted our military are often educated now Re ection of middle class America educated middle classsuccessful of middle class not diversity in classes but diverse in ethnicities Tends to be more conservative and more Christian than rest of America Sergeants run the military train People in military often think others like students are undisciplined and being subsidized by family and don t know what they are doing with their life Discusses military as social dimension 0 Cohen did not emphasize nuclear issues 0 Know capitals of Taiwan japan north korea 0 International repitoires wars of tomorrow etc DEFENSE DYE 0 Strategy Serious Games 0 game theory applied in probability stock markets strategy Nuclear strategy Application of game theory to strategy art of generalship war how to accomplish goals big picture a notion of defense deterrence getting another to do what one desires Bettersmarter to get people to do without force I Others will want to gang up on you or rebel n Build consensus with strength 0 Emphasizes nuclear conventional cohen vs nuclear dye 0 Important to have a range of options in military strategy 0 Structure o Lies in the constitution shared between exec and leg branch a President commander in chief I Department of Defense Pentagon headed by Secretary of Defense 0 O n JCS joint of chiefs of staff committee highest command of US military 0 Head of this is general Dempsey chief uniform of cer chairmanbeneath hagel selected by Prez rotated by every unit so not dominated by one division of service army military etc o If consult dept of state will suggest soft power 0 Dept of defense will suggest hard power 0 The National Security is beholden to neither no bureaucratic tie the impartial judge between dept of state and dept of defense State Department Foggy Bottom CIA Langley Homeland Security chiefs of each military department in JCS n Declare War approve president39s nominations of generalsadmirals control the moneybudgets power of the purse a House Armed Service Committee and Defense Armed Service Committee deterrenceMAD o deterrence they strike rst have the option to take out even if wiped out save enough power to destroy even if cant defend self both destroyed will never succeed I Mutually Assured Destruction deterrence O 0 fear of retaliation and parody and rational actoropponent 0 Have equal number of weapons 0 Second strike capacity goes with this Arms control talks Cooperate and have peace Don t trust one another to cooperate so no one strikes 0 International Atomic Energy Agency 1968 0 International Regime o Treaty led to this Arms control tries to contain the number of nukes or prevent states from acquiring nuclear weapons pledge not to have more states with nuclear weapons because then MAD wouldn39t work tries to control nukes Problem with IAEA is some states are still secretly producing them and giving them to states on the side 0 iran Iraq Pakistan North Korea make own nuclear weapons didn t sign treatv know the capitals of these Problem NK slightly terroristic attacks against SK unpredictable amp rational Iraq used it weapons of mass destructionchemical warfare on minorities in north and against iran Iran helps terrorist organizations in the middle east Pakistan ally of US has nuclear weapons to make sure these countries are stable because supply things like oil to help NATO and Japan to keep world safer Other countries whom US protects or helps because they cant provide for themselves often resent US because perceived asstereotyped as smugampignorant of other countries not because unintelligent because don t need to know o Islamabad Pakistan is an ally of ours we give lots of aid to them BMD system c under US umbrella protection 0 India amp Israel not rouge states not under US protection turn blind eye if they acquire nuclear weapons 0 If a missile comes into our zone knock it away before it can cause damage n Works against rouge states doesn39t work against terrorists if they launch it within your border 0 Problem rouge states often give technology to terrorist groups 0 O O Brussels Belgium 194039s Beginning of Cold War 4039s to 8039s Ankara Turkey Tehran Iran Cairo Egypt Damascus Syria Baghdad Iraq a Turkey Warsaw Pact sovietscommunists Disbanded now established in Poland US promised to not expand NATO eastward after Cold war proxy wars psychological warfare threats of nukes Cuban missile crisis etc indirect war between US and Soviets but broke the promise Russians tried to end it upset with US started in late 4039s ended in late 8039s Moved NATO further eastward to include Poland and others Ankara Turkey Cairo Egypt Tehran Iran Damascus Syria Beijing China Taipei Taiwan Pyongyang North Korea 0 Islamabad Pakistan Kabul Afghanistan Tokyo China 0 Name capital of countries that are rouge states or of countries we arehave been in war yet 0 leadership powers Bilateral relationship with japan treaty alliance with seoul taipei and Tokyo 0 How much amp when 0 US is stretched thin economically and in terms of man power 0 1011 0 set clear reasons for engagement have to be really de ned and explained to the American people as well as cleargood exit strategy not spend lots of time o analyze all risks and costs have to have support of the people behind you 0 Go in with overwhelming force and take them out then get out I Ex US used overwhelming force for the rst time Desert Storm Gulf Wars 0 Iraq invaded Kuwait There was oil Sudam Hussain took over the entire country Saudi Arabia invited US in because afraid they would be invaded next US ejected Sudam Hussain in 1991 followed Powell Doctrine Premature exit Problem Suddam Hussaine survived won the war and lost the peace and had nuclear weapons 0 To take out Suddam because he had what we thought was weapons of mass destruction didn39t pretended he had them to scare Iraninsurance policy went in with far fewer troons no clear exit strategy and went in during civil war bt Sunnisamp Shiites more Shiites in population of Iraq but Sunnis have more power Iraq didn39t have weapons of mass destruction US embarrassed Iraq was a broken society and we then had to pay for it Didn39t end up having weapons of mass destruction if US thinks a country is unstable and has weapons of mass destruction we have rights to go take it out Got in the middle of civil war in Iraq Sunni and Shi39ites different sects of Iraq more shi39ites in iraq but the sunnis control the power Suddam I Really don t like each other more sunnis in the world surge of US troops in 2007 GW Bush made an error with second gulf war but the surge at least corrected it n Obama learned from this he had his own surge into Afghanistan 0 Seal team went in and took out Bin Laden 0 Problem Obama still hasn39t told why were still in AfgPaklran Dye says because we don39t want Al Queda to return and Afg is important because of its location and they are trying to set up a govt and if we leave its unstable so govt may fall which is dangerous because their violence will spread to Pakistan and Pak has plans that if govt falls its nukes will be transferred to US o The parts of toolsweapons Ground based missiles in silos based in Coloradomountains Bombers air based weapons Submarines ocean based weapons Homeland Security Chapter 16 DYE o terrorizescare directly targets civilians 0 Political agenda a terrorist will use it for a political agenda 0 affects civilians I Maximum attention I Uses the power of irrationalism in a rational way very rational I Deterrence doesn39t really work very hard to deter a Don t really care if give up life take others down with them this is very rational I Takes advantage of openness of society internet and use it against it I Doesn39t wear a uniform I Targets civilians I Disproportionate means l sometimes not to kill but more to damage I Cause panic divide leaders from society bait you to get you to do something don39t want to do drag into con ict and get you to overreact and then retreat and ght you in terms that are favorable to them 0 A lot of terrorist groups are religious Islamic groups 0 China doesn t seem to have terrorist problems 0 Russia Israel South and North Korea have terrorist problems I Criminal gang does it to get money or power wants to corrupt the government from within I Terrorist wants to overthrow the government I However crime and terrorism often work hand in hand but have different objectives 0 Post 911 0 Most 911 terrorists were very smart and knew what they were doing 0 evoke an American reactioninvade them to cause terror 0 We will nd them and get them Poorly designed patriot act Violated Powell Doctrine Dye hints at the fact that Bush publicized that US will have revenge which is what terrorists want should have done it quietly overreacted and maybe got involved too long Scared that Al Queda may have weapons of mass destruction nukes biological or chemical unsure what was going on n Rushed poorly done itset up Department of Homeland Security a Empowered the government to search and seizure wire tapping without a warrant for each wire tap to look at everythingrecords in computer to detain in Guantanamo Bay for long periods of time and without reason expanded the power of FISA courts international surveillance court only have to go to FISA courts once for warrant and then have the power to go through all stuff 0 Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Agency D a prison in Cuba because had it before Cuba went communist and they don39t have the power to overthrow it because on foreign soil they don39t have Miranda rights and can keep them there inde nitely e Handed people over to other countries to torture and get information out a Used this waterboarding with Kalid S Mohammed led to getting Bin Laden 0 Set up by Patriot Act 0 Have a lot of smaller departments Huge lots of stuff thrown into it Lots of it doesn39t make sense FEMA Border control a Does too much mistake of top down acting quickly hard to take it apart and reform it o Lots of departments a mess lots of turf wars who is going to ght it The military and the CIA do different and same things Director of National Intelligence is supposed to coordinate everything but not the case because defense department do not give up anything In CIALangley 0 Analysts computer work and does research and operations undercoverspies 0 Writes the daily brie ng for president a FBI is in Department ofjustice intelligence in each unit and NSA national security agency signals intelligencewire tap More experience in US Bureaucratic situation is very complex lots of turf wars Could be much more productive I Learned what CIA did as projects 0 Uprising against CIA o The threat of terrorism causes Americans to put up with limits put on personal liberty 0 Americans tend to me maximalists about security No writing sample 50 questions about 8 cumulative questions criminal justice amp defense ampaw and order 6 topics6 chapters covered Including fundamental questionsdetails can you improvisetheory opinionsjudgment calls from two schuck and Wilson chapters Capitals of Asia and Middle East because those are countries in which we are involved 0 South Korea Peun Yang 0 Baghdad Coble where went to war twice NATO know certain countries expansion Powell Doctrine TRIAD IAEA what it is trying to contain the spread of nuclear weapons to rouge states generals of Gulf wars cause of war Foggy Bottom state department