A financial executive for Fidelity Investments lives in Boston but frequently must

Chapter 0, Problem 12

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A financial executive for Fidelity Investments lives in Boston but frequently must travel to New York. She can go to New York by car, train, or plane. The cost for a plane ticket from Boston to New York is $200, and it is estimated that the trip takes 30 minutes in good weather and 45 minutes in bad weather. The cost for a train ticket is $100, and the trip takes an hour in good weather and two hours in bad weather. The cost to drive her own car from Boston to New York is $40, and this trip takes three hours in good weather and four in bad weather. The executive places a value of $60 per hour on her time. The weather forecast is for a 60 percent chance of bad weather tomorrow. What decision would you recommend? (Hint: Set up a payoff table, and remember that you want to minimize costs.) What is the expected value of perfect information?

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