A certain process for manufacturing integrated circuits has been in use for a period of time, and it is known that 12% of the circuits it produces are defective. A new process that is supposed to reduce the proportion of defectives is being tested. In a simple random sample of 100 circuits produced by the new process, 12 were defective. a. One of the engineers suggests that the test proves that the new process is no better than the old process, since the proportion of defectives in the sample is the same. Is this conclusion justified? Explain. b. Assume that there had been only 11 defective circuits in the sample of 100. Would this have proven that the new process is better? Explain. c. Which outcome represents stronger evidence that the new process is better: finding 11 defective circuits in the sample, or finding 2 defective circuits in the sample?
Chapter 19 Simulation Used to find probability in complex situations Always start with a good model Repetition of which a event will eventually be closer to the probability. Steps in assimilation: 1. Give a model 2. Assign digits to rep the outcomes 3. Simulate repetitions ( Random digits table) Tree diagram- representation of presenting complicated probabilities Different branches: represent different stages IF asked for an intersection (and) you multiply: Ex: what is the probability of surviving AND the transplant is a success. IF asked for a union (or) you add: What is the probability of living OR dying Chapter