Play the winner? Another strategy for beating the lottery is the reverse of the system described in Exercise 23. Simulate the simplified lottery described in Exercise 21. Each time, bet the number that just turned up. The Web site suggests that this method should do worse. Does it? Play many games and see

Econ 225: Ex. You have 12 shirts in your closet. 9 White shirts, 3 Black shirts. Suppose you pick a shirt at random. Put it on, when you get home you take it off and wash it. Suppose you do the same thing the next day, without replacing the first shirt. What is the probability that both shirts you picked out are white Day 1: P(Picking a white shirt)= 9/12 (9 white shirts/ 12 total shirts) Day 2: P(Picking white shirt) = 8/11 (8 White shirts/ 11 total shirts; given that you picked a white shirt on the first day) (Probability of day 1) * (Probability of day 2; Given that day 1’s shirt was white) = (9/12) * (8/11) = .55 Whatever happens on the first day will affect what happens on the second day. It is a dependent probability because day 2 depe