Red cards You shuffle a deck of cards and then start turning them over one at a time. The first one is red. So is the second. And the third. In fact, you are surprised to get 10 red cards in a row. You start thinking, The next one is due to be black! a) Are you correct in thinking that theres a higher probability that the next card will be black than red? Explain. b) Is this an example of the Law of Large Numbers? Explain.

Week 7: Probability Distributions 18 October 2016 Basic Statistics for Research Professor HK Dong Wendy Liu Baye’s Rule – given k mutually exclusive & exhaustive events such that and an observed event A, then Permits revising old probabilities based on new info o Prior probability – associated w/ B andbefore we know status of A and o Posterior probability – updated probability of B Application of conditional probability Mutually exclusive events Intro to probability distributions Random variable – represents a possible numerical outcome from an uncertain event Probability distribution – list of the distinct numerical values of discrete random variable X al