Polling Just before a referendum on a school budget, a local newspaper polls 400 voters in an attempt to predict whether the budget will pass. Suppose that the budget actually has the support of 52% of the voters. Whats the probability the newspapers sample will lead them to predict defeat? Be sure to verify that the assumptions and conditions necessary for your analysis are met.
Chapter 19 Simulation Used to find probability in complex situations Always start with a good model Repetition of which a event will eventually be closer to the probability. Steps in assimilation: 1. Give a model 2. Assign digits to rep the outcomes 3. Simulate repetitions ( Random digits table) Tree diagram- representation of presenting complicated probabilities Different branches: represent different stages IF asked for an intersection (and) you multiply: Ex: what is the probability of surviving AND the transplant is a success. IF asked for a union (or) you add: What is the probability of living OR dying Chapter