Using Probability to Identify Unlikely Events.In consider an event to be “unlikely” if its probability is less than or equal to 0.05. (This is equivalent to the same criterion commonly used in inferential statistics, but the value ofO. 05 is not absolutely rigid, and other values such as 0.01 are sometimes used instead.)

Guessing BirthdaysOn their first date, Kelly asks Mike to guess the date of her birth, not including the year.

a.What is the probability that Mike will guess correctly? (Ignore leap years.)

b.Would it be unlikely for him to guess correctly on his first try?

c.If you were Kelly, and Mike did guess correctly on his first try, would you believe his claim that he made a lucky guess, or would you be convinced that he already knew when you were born?

d.If Kelly asks Mike to guess her age, and Mike’s guess is too high by 15 years, what is the probability that Mike and Kelly will have a second date?

Solution 29BSC

The probability that Mike will guess the Kelly’s birth date correctly is 0.003.Yes, it would be unlikely for Mike to guess correctly on his first try because the probability that Mike will guess the Kelly’s birth date correctly is 0.003 which is less than 0.05.Since the probability of making...