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Probability and Statistics for Engineers and the Scientists | 9th Edition | ISBN: 9780321629111 | Authors: Ronald E. Walpole; Raymond H. Myers; Sharon L. Myers; Keying E. Ye
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A student who is trying to write a paper for a course has

Chapter 4, Problem 61E

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QUESTION:

A student who is trying to write a paper for a course has a choice of two topics, A and B. If topic A is chosen, the student will order two books through interlibrary loan, whereas if topic B is chosen, the student will order four books. The student believes that a good paper necessitates receiving and using at least half the books ordered for either topic chosen. If the probability that a book ordered through interlibrary loan actually arrives in time is .9 and books arrive independently of one another, which topic should the student choose to maximize the probability of writing a good paper? What if the arrival probability is only .5 instead of .9?

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QUESTION:

A student who is trying to write a paper for a course has a choice of two topics, A and B. If topic A is chosen, the student will order two books through interlibrary loan, whereas if topic B is chosen, the student will order four books. The student believes that a good paper necessitates receiving and using at least half the books ordered for either topic chosen. If the probability that a book ordered through interlibrary loan actually arrives in time is .9 and books arrive independently of one another, which topic should the student choose to maximize the probability of writing a good paper? What if the arrival probability is only .5 instead of .9?

ANSWER:

Solution : Step 1 : It is given that the student have two choices to select a topic A or B. If topic A is chosen, the student will order two books through interlibrary loan, whereas if topic B is chosen, the student will order four books. Student believe that in order to make a good note at least half of the books ordered for either topic should receive on correct time.If the probability that a book ordered through interlibrary loan actually arrives in time is .9. We have to find that which topic should the student choose to maximize the probability of writing a good paper. How this will change if the arrival probability is 0.5

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