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Solved: Name two biases that led to the Literary Digest
Chapter 2, Problem 33AYU(choose chapter or problem)
Problem 33AYU
Name two biases that led to the Literary Digest making an incorrect prediction in the presidential election of 1936.
Questions & Answers
QUESTION:
Problem 33AYU
Name two biases that led to the Literary Digest making an incorrect prediction in the presidential election of 1936.
ANSWER:
Problem 33AYU
Answer:
Step 1
Sampling bias can result in incorrect predictions. For example, the magazine Literary Digest predicted that Alfred M. Landon would defeat Franklin D. Roosevelt in the 1936 presidential election. The Literary Digest conducted a poll by mailing questionnaires based on a list of its subscribers, telephone directories, and automobile owners. On the basis of the results, the Literary Digest predicted that Landon would win the election with 57% of the popular vote. However, Roosevelt won the election with about 62% of the popular vote. Bear in mind that this election was taking place during the height of the Great Depression. The incorrect prediction by the Literary Digest was the result of sampling bias. In 1936, most subscribers to the magazine, households with telephones, and automobile owners were Republican, the party of Landon. Therefore, the choice of the frame used to conduct the survey led to an incorrect prediction. Essentially, there was undercoverage of Democrats.