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Solved: Research on George Gallup Research the polling
Chapter 2, Problem 34AYU(choose chapter or problem)
Research on George Gallup Research the polling done by George Gallup in the 1936 presidential election. Write a report on your findings. Be sure to include information about the sampling technique and sample size. Now research the polling done by Gallup for the 1948 presidential election. Did Gallup accurately predict the outcome of the election? What lessons were learned by Gallup?
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QUESTION:
Research on George Gallup Research the polling done by George Gallup in the 1936 presidential election. Write a report on your findings. Be sure to include information about the sampling technique and sample size. Now research the polling done by Gallup for the 1948 presidential election. Did Gallup accurately predict the outcome of the election? What lessons were learned by Gallup?
ANSWER:Answer:
Step 1
A bias that is harmless in one poll can give you an unjustified sense of confidence and set you up for a disaster in the next poll. That happened to the Literary Digest in 1936. Its sample was based on telephone and motor vehicle registration lists, both indicators of relative affluence. Affluence was not correlated with voter choice in 1932, and its poll was right on the mark. Then President Roosevelt built his New Deal coalition of farmers, workers, and minorities and caused a historic party realignment that left voter choice very much correlated with economic status. The Literary Digest confidently repeated its biased sampling in 1936, was horribly wrong, and did not live to poll again. George Gallup used an unbiased sample, got it right, and became the dominant pollster of his time.