Each of 500 soldiers in an army company independentlyhas a
Chapter 4, Problem 4.65(choose chapter or problem)
Each of 500 soldiers in an army company independentlyhas a certain disease with probability 1/103.This disease will show up in a blood test, and tofacilitate matters, blood samples from all 500 soldiersare pooled and tested.(a) What is the (approximate) probability thatthe blood test will be positive (that is, at leastone person has the disease)?Suppose now that the blood test yields a positiveresult.(b) What is the probability, under this circumstance,that more than one person has the disease?One of the 500 people is Jones, who knows that hehas the disease.(c) What does Jones think is the probability thatmore than one person has the disease?Because the pooled test was positive, the authoritieshave decided to test each individual separately.The first i 1 of these tests were negative,and the ith onewhich was on Joneswas positive.(d) Given the preceding, scenario, what is theprobability, as a function of i, that any of theremaining people have the disease?
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