f (t) = cos(t) for 0 t K 0 for t > K with K any positive number.
March 22, 2016 Political Development in Latin America I ● Economists looking at geography say temperate and more settled zones will develop economic and political institutions ● Puzzles: ○ Why contrasting political economic development present within New World ■ USA and Canada TOP Argentina and Uruguay BEST IN SOUTH AMERICA Colombia, Peru and Venezuela MIDDLE Bolivia, Paraguay and Ecuador BOTTOM ■ Brazil has different levels of development based on region ● Ecological: tropical vs temperate ○ Tropical less settled so extractive, temperate gets settle so good economy ○ Problem that remains is fact that you see different between temperate zones: Argentina vs USA and Costa Rica vs El Salvador and Honduras ● Reversal of Developmented to revised explanatiifferent level of inequality in colonial leads to different outcomes ● Disease explanation: ○ Harsh environment leads to more disease so less settling while livable environment leads to less disease so more settling ○ Those NOT settled will use traditional social structure, those that do get settled will make own bureaucratic structure ○ Problem that Spanish decide to settle in harsh environmedea goes i against history ● Precious minerals: MOST PROMINENT EXPLANATION ○ Settled in areas that had precious metals that could be sent to Europe ○ Lay foundation for extractive and exploitative labor institutions ○ NO SUSTAINABLE INSTITUTIONS ○ Mercantilist → restrictive political ito suppress competition ● Precolonial Societies: ○ Aztecof Central Mexico ○ Incaf Andean region ■ Aztec and Inca different than premodern states because very small political elite with little rights given to rest ○ Huntergatherers societiorth America and Southern Core (settled but in tribal societies) ○ Inverse correlation: areas with history of complexed states are less developed than areas with tribal societies ■ Harder to impose own institutions over traditional, tribal were easily replaced ● Complexed states set up around extracting while tribal are more selfreliance and independent ○ Problem that correlation between subnational areas and absence of development ● The extent to which precolonial were able to resist will make it harder to impose institutions ○ Ignore impact of colonialism ● Colonialism hypothesisdifferent between British and Spanish colonialism ○ Spanish: settled in areas with dense populations to control natives ○ British: settled in areas with easily resettle of natives no direct conflict ■ No conflict means less expensive and start from zero ● Rethinking settlement argument: 1. Causes of level of settlemelots in large dense areas with harsh environment 2. Consequences of level of settlemenleads to extractive institutions ● The political economic sense matteidentity matters ○ Spanish: mercantilisrestricted property ownership, political and market system, a part of semiperiphery of world system ■ Losing wealth to new free market rising ○ British: open markegiving strong incentives to establish coherent bureaucracy, rising hegemony ■ Problem because different between British colonies in Caribbean March 24, 2016 Political Development in Latin America II ● Puzzle: ○ Why didn’t Costa Rica become banana republic and why Argentina should have looked like Canada or Australia but regressed instead ● Costa Rica: ○ Solid economic growthand relatively wealthy ○ Mature democracy ○ No military coup ○ Exceptionally peacefuompared to neighbors ○ La Costa Pobre: ■ Lack of precious metaland indigenous populations ■ Fewer large estates ■ Less slaves ■ Absence of oligarchyelatively homogenous society a. In reality, oligarchy did exist in banana and coffee industry ○ 1948 Civil Warbetween left and right conservative ■ Calderon’s leftleaning coaliad moderate leftist agenda a. Got elected out of offiut Caldero tried to fraud b. Military got involved to ensure election upheld ■ Figuere's Social Democrat coalition and conservative Ulate a. Implemented social democratic agenda, bipartisan constituent assembly, electoral tribunal and extend suffrage to women b. Abolish standing army leftist party disarms guerrilla c. Had pretty centrist agenda ■ After independence, series of dictators and political polarization stopped growth ● Argentina: ○ 1819th centurysettled late 17th century ■ A land of new settlemensimilar with USA and Canada ■ Most European population in Latin Ameri“massive whitening”) a. Italy and Spain ■ Small ethnic/racial divide a. Some slaves but got taken out of influence making population very homogenous ■ “Reversal of Fortune” for a centtart to take off a. Before this no big wealth of population ■ Integrated into global econoEuropean markets) huge export of beef (agroproducts) ○ Reason of Argentina’s succesorn liberal ■ Bourbon period of Spanish colonialism a. No restrictive trade practices, monopolies and mercantilist rule b. Less legacy of mercantilism and oligarchy ○ Reversal of Fortune is reverafter the 1930s ■ Trapped in cycleapid growth → hyperinflation → devaluation → default → depression a. Rapid growth by government giving job and printing lots of money making inflation b. Unable to pay debt so decreased value of peso, slowly begin to pay back and start cycle again ■ Economic nationalism and ISI policeugely dependent on European markets but in Depression saw huge fall since Europe economy collapse a. Led to idea of develop more products at home to be independent and not import b. Argentina wanted to build automobile industry but bad quality because only 1 or 2 players protected by government so no competition c. Only Argentina buying cars but not enough people (demand) very small d. Import Substitute Industry e. “Argentine riddle of reverse development” developed → developing ○ Two historical factors as hurdles to 1930s1940s political reform: ■ Concentration of land ownershn Buenos Aires ■ Personalistic authoritarian leadeJuan Manuel de Rosas) a. Consolidated power and killed many b. Huge impact in future leader ■ Failure in building a rule abiding institution ○ Middle Class formRadical Circle Union Partn late 11th century ■ Won and took office under Hipolito Yrigoyen ■ Relying on oligarchy ■ NO RADICAL REFORM ■ Clientelistic distribution of public office ■ BEEN IN POWER FOR A LONG TIME ○ Infamous Decade: ncrease in military power ■ Inspired by Germany ■ Coalition between ld oligarchy and military ■ Series of electoral fraud ■ Military has lots of power, begins to look at politics ■ RISE OF JUAN PERON ○ Impact of Peron: ■ LEFT agenda, appeal to working class with clientelism ■ Invention of populist tradition and bad economy decision a. Restrict import, overvalued peso, taxed agricultural export, taking over industries from foreign investoupreme Court is controlled by coup so no restriction b. Overvalue peso to make domestic purchasing power ● Reflection: ○ Do material factors or human agencies matter morehow you need to look at leaders ○ Any other “exceptional case” resemble the Costa Rica or Argentiingapore