For simplicity, let us assume that there are two kinds of

Chapter 3, Problem 214SE

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QUESTION:

Problem 214SE

For simplicity, let us assume that there are two kinds of drivers. The safe drivers, who are 70% of the population, have probability .1 of causing an accident in a year. The rest of the population are accident makers, who have probability .5 of causing an accident in a year. The insurance premium is $400 times one’s probability of causing an accident in the following year. A new subscriber has an accident during the first year. What should be his insurance premium for the next year?

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QUESTION:

Problem 214SE

For simplicity, let us assume that there are two kinds of drivers. The safe drivers, who are 70% of the population, have probability .1 of causing an accident in a year. The rest of the population are accident makers, who have probability .5 of causing an accident in a year. The insurance premium is $400 times one’s probability of causing an accident in the following year. A new subscriber has an accident during the first year. What should be his insurance premium for the next year?

ANSWER:

Solution

Step 1 of 1

We have to find the insurance premium

There are 2 kinds of drivers

Safe drivers who are 70% with probability 0.1

Others 30% with probability 0.5

Insurance premium is 400 $

Let S be the event that safe driving

Let A be the event that accident

Now P(S)=0.7

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