Assisted Reproduction. Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is a collection of techniques that help facilitate pregnancy (e.g. in vitro fertilization). A 2008 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that ART has been successful in leading to a live birth in 31% of cases67. A new fertility clinic claims that their success rate is higher than average. A random sample of 30 of their patients yielded a success rate of 40%. A consumer watchdog group would like to determine if this provides strong evidence to support the companys claim. (a) Write the hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly higher than the success rate reported by the CDC. (b) Based on large sample theory, we modeled p using the normal distribution. Why is this not appropriate here? (c) The normal approximation would be less reliable here, so we should use a simulation strategy. Describe a setup for a simulation that would be appropriate in this situation and how the p-value can be calculated using the simulation results. (d) Below is a histogram showing the distribution of psim in 10,000 simulations under the null hypothesis. Estimate the p-value using the plot and use it to evaluate the hypotheses. (e) After performing this analysis, the consumer group releases the following news headline: Infertility clinic falsely advertises better success rates. Comment on the appropriateness of this statement.

Problem 6.54

Assisted Reproduction. Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) is a collection of techniques that help facilitate pregnancy (e.g. in vitro fertilization). A 2008 report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimated that ART has been successful in leading to a live birth in 31% of cases67. A new fertility clinic claims that their success rate is higher than average. A random sample of 30 of their patients yielded a success rate of 40%. A consumer watchdog group would like to determine if this provides strong evidence to support the company's claim.

(a) Write the hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly higher than the success rate reported by the CDC.

(b) Based on large sample theory, we modeled p using the normal distribution. Why is this not appropriate here?

(c) The normal approximation would be less reliable here, so we should use a simulation strategy. Describe a setup for a simulation that would be appropriate in this situation and how the p-value can be calculated using the simulation results.

(d) Below is a histogram showing the distribution of psim in 10,000 simulations under the null hypothesis. Estimate the p-value using the plot and use it to evaluate the hypotheses.

(e) After performing this analysis, the consumer group releases the following news headline: Infertility clinic falsely advertises better success rates. Comment on the appropriateness of this statement.

Step by step solution

Step 1 of 5

(a)

The hypotheses to test if the success rate for ART at this clinic is significantly higher than the success rate reported by the CDC.